日前，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布，牵动资本市场脉搏。 券商中国记者注意到，摩根大通、野村东方国际、摩根士丹利、瑞银等四大外资机构发布最新观点。四大外资 一致认为，本次中美经贸高层会谈成功超市场预期，释放积极信号，中国经济增长预期改善。 一是内需复苏主线，涉及行业中估值弹性较大的是食品饮料、业绩弹性较大的是房地产、政策弹性较大的是医 药，以及内需消费升级相关的服务消费、品质必需消费与潮玩可选消费； 二是伴随央行"促进物价合理回升"的政策表态，关注PPI修复预期带动的周期品，尤其是中国定价权更强的钢 铁、煤炭和铝等； 三是把握高景气科技领域的产业迭代趋势，关注AI、储能和各类长验证周期的题材如国产替代和商业航天 等。 同时，本周以来，多家券商发布研报看好中国科技板块，中国资产重估的逻辑仍在。此外，根据摩根士丹利最 新研报，海外投资者增配中国股票的意向也在上升。 摩根大通朱海斌：经贸会谈成果超预期，释放积极信号 摩根大通中国首席经济学家兼大中华区经济研究主管朱海斌认为，中美日内瓦经贸会谈成果超预期，释放积极 信号。与此同时，摩根大通上调了中国2025年全年GDP增速预测至4.8%。 朱海斌分析称，美中双方同 ...

5月12日下午，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称"联合声明"）发布，引发全球市场关注， 各国股市普涨。各券商首席分析师一致认为，联合声明的内容超市场预期，向市场释放积极信号，短期 内有望提振投资者风险偏好，利好中国权益资产。在行业配置方面，券商一致看好出口链条及科技板 块。 中金公司认为，短期内，市场在暂缓预期推动下大幅反弹也是应有之义，建议关注出口链和互联网科技 成长，后者更为明确。互联网科技成长与分红轮动依然是一个整体策略。建议低迷的时候更积极介入， 亢奋的时候适度锁定利润，同时抓准结构性方向主线。 长期而言，申万宏源表示，出口链是结果，而处于长期景气趋势的国产AI、国防军工、机器人是原 因。因此，维持对科技景气方向的战略看好。预计短期A股震荡且中枢抬升，长期重启A股结构牛，看 好科技板块。 华西证券指出，短期中美经贸高层会谈成为聚焦点，参考美英贸易协议的内容，市场预期中美谈判也可 能反复拉锯。在此背景下，仍坚定中国资产的重估逻辑，A股有望在震荡中实现中枢的逐步抬升。行业 配置上，关注AI+产业主线（AI应用、AI算力、机器人等）、创新药、大消费板块中的"新消费"领域。 从市场反应来看，5月12日 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated in the second quarter, with a total planned issuance of 7.8 trillion yuan, including 4.6 trillion yuan in national bonds and 3.3 trillion yuan in local bonds [2] - The proportion of newly issued special bonds has significantly increased, accounting for over 40% of local bonds issued in the second quarter, totaling 4.078 billion yuan [1][2] - The issuance of ultra-long-term special national bonds is progressing, with 1.92 billion yuan already issued and plans for additional issuances in May and June [1] Group 2 - The funds raised from government bonds are aimed at supporting domestic demand and boosting consumption, with specific allocations for consumer goods replacement programs [2][3] - The government has allocated 8 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds to support major infrastructure projects, with a focus on optimizing construction and enhancing project management [3] - There is a push to accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds to stabilize growth and investment, with recommendations to advance fiscal spending from the second half of the year to the second quarter [4]

"公司"）2023 年面向专业投 （以下简称"本期债券"）将于 2025 年 5 月 19 资者公开发行公司债券（第二期） 日支付自 2024 年 5 月 19 日至 2025 年 5 月 18 期间的利息。根据《华西证券股份 有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券（第二期）募集说明书》及 《华西证券股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券（第二期） 发行结果公告》有关条款的规定，现将有关事项公告如下： 一、本期债券的基本情况 债券（第二期） 。 法定节假日或休息日，则顺延至其后的第 1 个交易日；每次付息款项不另计利 息） 证券简称：华西证券 证券代码：002926 公告编号：2025-019 债券代码：148292 债券简称：23 华股 02 华西证券股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 华西证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"、 休息日，则顺延至其后的第 1 个交易日；顺延期间兑付款项不另计利息）。 等级为 AAA，本期债券的信用等级为 AAA。在本期债券的存续期内，资信评级 机构将在每年 ...

证券简称：华西证券 证券代码：002926 公告编号：2025-019 债券代码：148292 债券简称：23 华股 02 华西证券股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券（第二期） 2025 年付息公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、债权登记日：2025 年 5 月 16 日 2、本次除息日：2025 年 5 月 19 日 3、本次付息日：2025 年 5 月 19 日 华西证券股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"、"公司"）2023 年面向专业投 资者公开发行公司债券（第二期）（以下简称"本期债券"）将于 2025 年 5 月 19 日支付自 2024 年 5 月 19 日至 2025 年 5 月 18 期间的利息。根据《华西证券股份 有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券（第二期）募集说明书》及 《华西证券股份有限公司 2023 年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券（第二期） 发行结果公告》有关条款的规定，现将有关事项公告如下： 一、本期债券的基本情况 1. 债券名称：华西证券股份有限公司 2023 ...

金河生物（002688）公告，控股股东金河控股近日解除质押1828.4万股，占其所持股份比例7.56%，占 公司总股本比例2.37%。质押开始日期为2022年7月27日和2023年3月14日，质权人为华西证券 （002926）股份有限公司。截至公告披露日，金河控股及其一致行动人累计质押公司股份1.43亿股，占 其所持股份比例51.41%，占公司总股本比例18.57%，不存在平仓风险。 ...

Group 1 - The ChiNext 50 Index has shown a strong increase of 2.42%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as AVIC Chengfei (+18.95%), Lens Technology (+7.53%), and Sungrow Power Supply (+6.53%) [1] - The ChiNext 50 ETF managed by Harvest has seen a trading volume of 17.9959 million yuan with a turnover rate of 4.71% [4] - The ChiNext 50 ETF has experienced significant growth in scale, increasing by 22.8794 million yuan over the past three months, and its shares have grown by 57 million over the same period [4] Group 2 - The valuation of the ChiNext 50 Index is currently at a historical low, with a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 4.56, which is lower than 84.1% of the time over the past five years, indicating strong value for investors [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext 50 Index account for 64.53% of the index, including companies like CATL, Dongfang Wealth, and Mindray [4] - Recent market trends have shifted towards small-cap growth stocks, driven by themes such as DeepSeek and humanoid robots, with a prevailing focus on small-cap growth styles [4] Group 3 - Short-term economic and trade high-level talks are becoming a focal point, with a positive outlook for A-shares to gradually rise amid fluctuations [5] - Industry allocation recommendations include focusing on AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the "new consumption" sector within the broader consumer market [5] - Thematic investment suggestions include military industry and self-controlled sectors [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the active public funds will increasingly focus on core asset pricing rather than marginal information flow pricing, leading to a potential overall adjustment in strategy paradigms [1] - The new regulations on public fund assessments may significantly impact the deviation from benchmarks and the ratio of profitable clients, with historical data showing that a large portion of active funds has underperformed the CSI 300 index [1] - The recent performance of public funds has been generally below benchmarks, attributed to underweighting banks and frequent trading, indicating a trend towards conservative allocation [1] Group 2 - The public fund reforms are expected to increase domestic capital allocation towards Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, supported by positive policy attitudes [2] - The market sentiment may improve due to the easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S., which could enhance the relative performance of Hong Kong stocks [2] - The low valuations and policy support for Hong Kong's technology and consumer sectors remain attractive for investors [2] Group 3 - The A-share market is anticipated to experience a structural bull market, driven by technology sectors, despite external uncertainties such as U.S. tariffs and trade negotiations [3] - The current financial easing is linked to stabilizing the capital market, although it may not lead to a comprehensive improvement in the A-share market's fundamentals [3] - The first quarter reports indicate strong performance in consumption, pharmaceuticals, and technology sectors, with technology showing superior relative value [3] Group 4 - The A-share market is expected to present structural opportunities as the performance verification period ends, although uncertainties from U.S.-China trade negotiations remain a concern [4] - Recommendations include focusing on dividend-paying stocks for defensive positioning, technology sectors for growth, and consumer sectors supported by policy initiatives [4] - The market is likely to maintain a range-bound pattern due to external uncertainties and the gradual impact of tariffs on domestic economic recovery [4] Group 5 - The initial phase of market volatility is expected to extend due to the complexities of U.S. tariffs, with a potential breakthrough later in the year driven by policy and capital [5] - The market's response to tariff impacts has created disturbances that require time to digest, but the overall bullish trend remains intact [6] - The influx of capital since last September is based on confidence in policy, long-term valuations, and industry trends, suggesting stability in the market [6] Group 6 - The market has recovered to pre-tariff levels, supported by liquidity from state-owned entities and resilient consumer demand [7] - The second quarter is expected to see accelerated policy implementation, which may further enhance market conditions [7] - Investment strategies should focus on small-cap growth stocks and stable dividend-paying sectors under the backdrop of continued monetary easing [7] Group 7 - The market's recovery is seen as temporary, with potential for increased volatility as economic weaknesses become evident [8] - The focus on financial stability and large-cap stocks is expected to gain traction, driven by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [8] - The structural changes in the market may lead to a shift towards traditional consumer assets with high return on equity [8] Group 8 - The outlook for the bond market remains optimistic, with potential for new lows in interest rates, while the stock market is advised to maintain a cautious stance amid ongoing tariff negotiations [9] - Investment opportunities are identified in technology sectors and new consumption areas, with a focus on strategic positioning as market conditions evolve [9] - The emphasis is on monitoring economic impacts from tariffs and adjusting investment strategies accordingly [9] Group 9 - The re-evaluation of Chinese assets is expected to lead to a gradual increase in A-share market levels, supported by domestic policy responses to external challenges [10] - The focus on AI and innovative sectors, along with consumer trends, is highlighted as key areas for investment [10] - The capital market's role in stabilizing expectations is crucial, with anticipated policy measures to support the market amid trade uncertainties [10] Group 10 - Three main investment themes are identified: TMT sector performance, low-cycle stocks benefiting from growth policies, and stable utility sectors with strong earnings [12] - The overall market performance is improving, with emerging growth sectors showing promising results [12] - The focus on low-valuation financial sectors is recommended as they align with the shifting investment strategies of equity funds [12]

■机构展望 ◎记者 汪友若 5月首个交易周，A股市场整体表现强势，日均成交额较4月底改善，情绪面显著回暖。消息面上，5月7 日，金融管理部门出台了一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期。机构观点认为，一揽子金融政策的出台节 奏超出市场预期，显著提振了市场风险偏好。 市场风格演绎方面，机构称，短期科技板块的景气度高企，A股"科技叙事"逻辑有望伴随着产业突破得 到进一步强化。中长期来看，中国证监会5月7日印发了《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》，提出25 条措施督促行业从"重规模"向"重回报"转变，公募新规或推动A股市场风格向大盘权重股、红利资产等 方向演变。 一揽子金融政策提振市场信心 申万宏源证券分析称，上周金融管理部门出台一揽子政策，其政策落地的全面性、集中性、一致性显著 超出市场预期。招商证券认为，央行降准、降息、新设立结构性货币政策工具等多项政策落地，对市场 信心的提振较明显。 中金公司研究部首席国内策略分析师李求索认为，一揽子金融政策释放积极信号，有助于进一步稳增长 稳市场稳预期，在外部面临较大不确定性的环境下，助力促进投资者风险偏好回升。结合当前A股市场 估值仍处于相对低位具备较好投资吸引力，以及科技叙事和 ...

Group 1 - The new public fund assessment rules may significantly impact the benchmark deviation and the ratio of profitable clients, with only 62% of active funds using the CSI 300 and CSI 800 benchmarks, while over 18% are track-type products [1] - Active public funds have generally underperformed their benchmarks over the past three years, partly due to underweighting banks and frequent trading, leading to a trend towards conservative allocations [1] - Future active public funds are expected to focus more on core asset pricing rather than marginal information flow pricing, indicating a potential overall adjustment in strategy paradigms [1] Group 2 - The recent government stance on capital market policies is positive, particularly supporting technology and consumer sectors, which is expected to boost demand for Hong Kong stocks [2] - The ongoing US-China trade talks may ease tensions, improving market sentiment, while the low valuation and policy support for Hong Kong's technology and consumer sectors remain attractive [2] - Mid-term public fund reforms may further increase domestic capital allocation towards Hong Kong's unique sectors, particularly technology and consumer stocks [2] Group 3 - The A-share market is expected to experience a structural bull market, with demand-side factors influenced by US tariffs and supply-side factors showing high visibility of significant supply clearance [3] - Despite potential disturbances in the capital market, financial easing is expected to stabilize and elevate the market's fluctuation range, with technology sectors showing strong performance in quarterly reports [3] - The A-share market's structural bull requires strong catalysts from technology industries to reinforce market consensus [3] Group 4 - The A-share market is likely to present a structural market trend as the performance verification period ends, but uncertainties from US-China trade negotiations remain a concern [4] - Recommended investment directions include stable dividend-paying sectors, technology narratives, and consumer sectors supported by policy initiatives [4] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern due to the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery [4] Group 5 - The initial bull market's volatility may extend due to the complexities of US tariffs, with a strategic outlook suggesting a potential breakthrough later in the year driven by policy and capital [5] - The market's current volatility is seen as a digestion of tariff impacts, with limited downside potential as stable capital flows are expected to support the market [6] - The bull market's initial phase may experience prolonged fluctuations, but a return to bear market levels is unlikely [6] Group 6 - The market has recovered to pre-tariff levels, supported by liquidity from state-owned entities, with limited downside pressure from tariff impacts on the economy [7] - The second quarter is expected to see accelerated policy implementation, enhancing market conditions and supporting small-cap growth [7] - Investment focus should include stable dividend stocks and sectors with improvement potential, such as non-ferrous metals and liquor [7] Group 7 - The market's recovery is anticipated to be temporary, with potential for increased volatility as economic conditions evolve [8] - The focus may shift towards financial stability and large-cap stocks under current policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [8] - The structural changes in the market may lead to a transition towards financial and stable sectors, with a focus on consumer industries [8] Group 8 - The bond market may see further declines in interest rates, with a focus on short-term bonds benefiting from a steep yield curve [9] - The stock market is advised to maintain a cautious stance due to ongoing tariff negotiations, with a focus on low-volatility dividend stocks and potential opportunities in technology and new consumption sectors [9] - A strategic approach is recommended, waiting for market adjustments before actively investing in technology and new consumption areas [9] Group 9 - The revaluation of Chinese assets is expected to occur amidst market fluctuations, with A-shares likely to gradually rise [10] - The advantages of China's manufacturing industry and the potential for counter-cyclical policies are highlighted as key factors for market performance [10] - Investment focus should include AI-related industries, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors within the broader consumer market [10] Group 10 - Three main investment themes are identified: TMT sectors expected to perform well throughout the year, low-cycle stocks showing potential for recovery, and stable sectors like public utilities and transportation with strong safety margins [12] - The overall performance of A-shares is stabilizing, with improvements in ROE and profit margins observed across various sectors [12] - The market's focus on growth and recovery is expected to continue, with specific attention to sectors benefiting from policy support [12]