Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance has demonstrated its capability to introduce incremental policies in response to changing circumstances, particularly through tax incentives to encourage foreign investment in China [1][2]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Bond Issuance - The Minister of Finance, Lan Fang'an, emphasized the importance of issuing and utilizing ultra-long-term special bonds and special bonds as part of the 2024 central budget report, indicating strong support for stabilizing growth initiatives [1]. - The issuance schedule for ultra-long-term special bonds has been adjusted, with four bonds being issued earlier than planned, reflecting the central government's commitment to enhancing domestic demand and stabilizing growth [1]. - The issuance of special bonds reached a record high in June, indicating a shift in focus from debt replacement to expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth in the second half of the year [1]. Group 2: Future Bond Issuance and Policy Tools - There remains over 2 trillion yuan in special bond quotas and 745 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bond quotas available for issuance in the second half of the year, with expectations for concentrated issuance in the third quarter [2]. - The establishment of new policy financial tools by the National Development and Reform Commission is in preparation, which is expected to further support project construction and boost infrastructure investment in conjunction with special bonds [2]. - The Ministry of Finance's recent tax incentives for foreign investment indicate a proactive approach to policy adjustments, with expectations for more robust fiscal measures to be introduced to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of early issuance and utilization of ultra-long-term special government bonds and special bonds to support economic growth initiatives [1] - The issuance schedule for four ultra-long-term special government bonds has been advanced by 7 to 14 days, indicating a proactive approach to boost local consumption through the "old-for-new" policy [1] - Since June, the issuance pace of special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds has accelerated, with special bond issuance reaching a record high for the year [1] Group 2 - There remains over 2 trillion yuan in special bond quotas and 745 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special government bond quotas available for issuance in the second half of the year [2] - The establishment of new policy financial tools by the National Development and Reform Commission is in preparation, which is expected to further support project construction and boost infrastructure investment [2] - The Ministry of Finance is capable of introducing timely incremental policies in response to changing circumstances, with expectations for more robust fiscal measures to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [5][77]. Core Views - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a downturn, with expectations for new policies to stimulate growth. Fixed asset investment increased by 3.7% year-on-year, while real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [1][3]. - The report highlights the potential for increased government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including land repurchase and urban renewal initiatives [1][3]. Summary by Sections Cement - National cement prices fell by 0.9% week-on-week, with regional variations. Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, leading to a decrease in enterprise shipment rates to 45.7% [2][24]. - Future price trends are expected to remain volatile due to insufficient demand support [2][24]. Glass - The average price of float glass was 1229.90 CNY/ton, down 1.63% week-on-week. Both supply and demand are weak, leading to high inventory levels [2][37]. - The photovoltaic glass market is also experiencing low demand, with prices for 2.0mm and 3.2mm coated panels declining [2][41]. Fiberglass - The price of non-alkali roving yarn is stable, while electronic yarn prices are experiencing slight increases due to tight supply. The average price for non-alkali roving yarn is 3687.50 CNY/ton, down 4.08% year-on-year [2][45]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resilient consumer building material leaders, particularly those benefiting from second-hand housing and urban renewal demands, recommending companies like Sanke Tree and Beixin Building Materials [3][5]. - For the cement and fiberglass sectors, companies like Conch Cement and China Jushi are highlighted for their potential recovery in performance [3][5]. - In the construction sector, state strategic projects are expected to boost demand, with recommendations for companies like China Railway Construction and China Communications Construction [3][5]. Real Estate Data - Recent data shows a decrease in new housing sales, with a 1.2% drop in the average transaction area for new homes in major cities [67][68]. - The report notes a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [67][68].

Group 1 - The issuance of government bonds has accelerated in the second quarter, with a total planned issuance of 7.8 trillion yuan, including 4.6 trillion yuan in national bonds and 3.3 trillion yuan in local bonds [2] - The proportion of newly issued special bonds has significantly increased, accounting for over 40% of local bonds issued in the second quarter, totaling 4.078 billion yuan [1][2] - The issuance of ultra-long-term special national bonds is progressing, with 1.92 billion yuan already issued and plans for additional issuances in May and June [1] Group 2 - The funds raised from government bonds are aimed at supporting domestic demand and boosting consumption, with specific allocations for consumer goods replacement programs [2][3] - The government has allocated 8 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds to support major infrastructure projects, with a focus on optimizing construction and enhancing project management [3] - There is a push to accelerate the issuance and utilization of special bonds to stabilize growth and investment, with recommendations to advance fiscal spending from the second half of the year to the second quarter [4]

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