华源证券近日发布航运船舶市场系列（十九）：2026年春节期间，VLCC运价高位大涨。2月20日， VLCC中东线、西非/拉美线、美湾线运价分别为15.7万、13.7万、10.1万美元/日（较2月13日分别大涨 28.5%、28.7%、8.7%），超过2025年11月时最高水平，创下2020年4月以来的新高。更值得注意的是， VLCC一年期期租租金在基本面和"长锦因素"催化下，大涨至9.3万美元/日（2月20日，较2月13日大涨 28.5%），创1988年以来历史新高。 来源：中国能源网 "百船王"长锦商船对市场定价的影响初显。VLCC运价在2026年春节期间的大涨或受"长锦因素"的较大 影响。2月17日，VLCC西非/中东线运价突破12万美元/日大关，当日3个成交货盘中，有2条为长锦运 营。值得注意的是，两条长锦运营的船均在成交前闲置了一段时间，其中的一艘（VLProsperity，2015 年造）甚至闲置了超30天才成交。考虑到VLCC运价对运力供给侧变化高度敏感，控制了120-130条 VLCC的"百船王"长锦商船或正在通过有效供给端影响市场定价。 特朗普对伊朗下"最后通牒"，美军"福特"号航母即将抵达中 ...

每经AI快讯，中远海能(01138.HK)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.08%，报18.89港元，成交额1.84亿港元。 ...

国泰海通证券发布研报称，2026年以来地缘局势紧张，船东情绪高涨，且有海外船东加大租船控制市 场，近期油运运价维持高位。中东-中国VLCCTCE维持在12万美元以上高位。提示船东情绪仍将可能持 续影响短期运价，该行建议关注运价中枢同比上升趋势，该行预计2026Q1油轮盈利将同比大增数倍。 油运市场相关港股： 中远海能（600026）(01138)：中远海能经过多年的业务重组整合，现已构建起油、气、化及仓储一体 化链式经营新格局。油运作为公司的核心业务，近十年营收占比长期超过8成，其中外贸原油及外贸成 品油运输业务贡献主要盈利弹性，内贸油运及LNG运输构筑盈利基石。截至2025年9月，统一换算载重 吨口径下，油轮、LNG船、化学品船、LPG船运力分别占比83.2%、16.5%、0.3%、0.1%。 而最新型、燃油效率最高的船舶，日租金更是超过了 10 万美元。 据报道，美军在约旦、沙特、巴林、阿联酋等多国部署了战机、预警机和无人机等力量。此外，美国总 统特朗普正考虑对伊朗实施一次"有限规模"的军事打击，以迫使其接受美国提出的核协议要求。值得注 意的是，此前有报道称，美国考虑扣押涉伊朗油轮以施压。 中信建投（60 ...

地缘方面，据央视网2月23日消息，就在美伊释放谈判信号的同时，美国对伊朗展开军事打击的风险依 然存在。另据报道，美媒援引美国中央情报局前情报人员的话称，美国可能在2月23日或2月24日对伊朗 发动军事打击。 消息面上，春节假期VLCC运价持续上涨，创近10年最高水平。根据华创证券，截至2026年2月20日， 克拉克森VLCC-TCE收于14.2万美元/天，周环比增长24.5%；其中，中东-中国航线收于15.7万美元/天， 周环比增长26%。一年期VLCC期租价格也继续涨至9.25万美元/天，周环比增长28.5%。该行认为，地 缘风险溢价+长锦大举"扫货"+制裁强化，VLCC市场正面临近乎空前的高涨情绪。 智通财经APP获悉，中远海能(01138)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.08%，报18.89港元，成交额1.84亿港元。 ...

消息面上，航运概念集体高开，中远海能、招商轮船涨停价开盘。 中信证券指出，逆全球化背景下能源贸易格局持续演变，供应链资产稀缺性和金融属性日益凸显，船东 运价和估值表现屡屡跳脱于传统供需驱动框架之外或为2025~26年油轮周期显著特征，淡季单日TD3C TCE突破15万美金，地缘催化共振推动2026年公司利润创周期高点。 一方面供给端海外船东加大运力控制，合规市场VLCC集中度提升有望重构定价机制。以Sinokor为例， 通过买入和期租的方式新增大量运力，若本轮全部船舶交付完毕后，控制运力将提升至118艘，若剔除 被制裁运力按合规运力来看，则CR5为41.5%，扩张完成后集中度将提升6.6ppts，集中度提升有望重构 定价机制，强化船东运价博弈主动权。同时截至2026年1月，VLCC浮舱运力占比环比提升0.4pct至 6.0%，供给端强约束2026年持续存在。 另一方面合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下原油补库需求或为主要边际变量。边际需求、运价的 趋势动能以及船东和货主双方博弈等影响即期运价因素短期形成合力，2月TD3C TCE超过14万，一年 期VLCC租金超过9万地缘主导驱动淡季油价甚至超过旺季，VLC ...

责任编辑：山上 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 航运概念集体高开，中远海能、招商轮船涨停价开盘，招商南油、中远海控、宁波远洋、中远海发跟 涨。消息面上，2026年2月23日 波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)报 2112 点，创2026年2月2日以来新高水平。 此外，上期所欧线集运主力合约大涨7%，报1326点。 ...

盘面上，黄金、石油板块领涨，宇树机器人、能源金属、CPO、特高压、消费电子、半导体概念股活跃。 09:34 港股恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至2%，恒生指数现跌1.27%。 09:33 港口航运板块盘初冲高，招商轮船盘中创新高，中远海能、招商南油涨停，宁波远洋、中远海特、国航远洋等跟涨。 沪指高开1.15%，深成指高开1.52%，创业板指高开1.70%，科创综指涨1.16%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 4129.13 | 47.06 | 1.15% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 1m | 14313.86 | 213.67 | 1.52% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | MW | 3331.79 | 55.84 | 1.70% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | mm | 1830.15 | 20.97 | 1.16% | 盘面上，黄金、石油板块领涨，宇树机器人、能源金属、CPO、特高压、消费电子、半导体概念股活跃；免税店、短剧游戏、see ...

港口航运板块盘初冲高，招商轮船盘中创新高，中远海能、招商南油涨停，宁波远洋、中远海特、国航 远洋、南京港、宁波海运跟涨。 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The overall sentiment around the Spring Festival is mixed, with positive aspects outweighing the negative; the macro environment remains favorable for the market [3] - Key observations include a decline in new home sales and a drop in movie ticket sales during the holiday, while travel and tourism showed strong activity [3] - The economic performance is still under observation, with credit data showing mixed results and social financing needing further assessment [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The bond market is expected to continue its upward trend post-Spring Festival, supported by a stable demand for bonds from banks and other institutional investors [12][15] - The liquidity environment is anticipated to remain loose, with the central bank likely to smooth out market shocks through rollovers of maturing repos [13][14] - The overall bond market is expected to stabilize due to low financing demand and a favorable trading structure [15][16] Group 3: Transportation Sector - High dividend highway companies are becoming attractive for investment, with dividend yields rising to 4-6% [17] - The growth potential in the transportation sector is driven by infrastructure expansion and investment opportunities in mature operational assets [17] - The revision of the "Highway Management Regulations" is expected to enhance long-term returns for the industry [17] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector - Baoli Food has transitioned from single product offerings to a comprehensive empowerment model, focusing on compound seasonings and light cooking solutions [19] - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected CAGR of 14.09% from 2022 to 2024, and a net profit of 1.92 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025 [19][20] - Investment recommendations include focusing on high-dividend and growth-oriented companies within the food and beverage sector, particularly those with strong B-end customer relationships [32][20] Group 5: Coal Industry - Global energy prices are experiencing divergence, with crude oil prices rising significantly due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [29][30] - The increase in oil prices is driven by factors such as military actions in the Middle East and a reduction in U.S. oil inventories [30] - Investment suggestions include focusing on high-performing coal companies and those in niche markets [30]

Group 1: IEEPA Tariff Legal Ruling - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA tariffs are illegal, primarily due to violations of the clear authorization principle and significant issues principle [9] - The tariffs affected include a 20% tariff on fentanyl from China, 25% on Canada and Mexico, and global equivalent tariffs [9] - The likelihood of full refunds for the tariffs is low, but partial refunds are more probable, depending on how lower courts handle the relief scope [9] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry Insights - The overall sales volume in the food and beverage industry during the 2026 Spring Festival decreased by 10%-20%, slightly better than market expectations [10] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showed significant sales growth, with Moutai's sales expected to increase by over 30% year-on-year [12] - The industry is entering a significant destocking phase, with first-tier brands' inventory levels notably lower than the previous year [12] Group 3: Health and Nutrition Industry Trends - The health and nutrition sector is experiencing structural growth, with the market size reaching over 100 billion yuan, significantly outpacing traditional food sectors [15] - The company West Health is transitioning from agency operations to a multi-brand strategy, establishing itself as a leader in the sports nutrition and functional food segments [11] - Revenue and profit for West Health are on a stable growth trajectory, with net profit increasing from 94 million yuan in 2023 to 149 million yuan in 2025 [13] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Developments - Huahong Semiconductor reported a revenue of $659.9 million for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, with a gross margin of 13% [19] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with a focus on enhancing its 12-inch wafer production capabilities through the acquisition of Huali Microelectronics [19] - The demand for embedded non-volatile memory products is increasing, driven by the rise in MCU and smart card needs [19] Group 5: Shipping and Transportation Sector - The VLCC freight rates surged by 24% to $146,385 per day during the Spring Festival, indicating strong demand in the oil shipping market [20] - The shipping market is expected to continue its upward trend, with tight capacity and strong demand forecasts for March [20] - The overall energy chain valuation is rising, with long-term cycles influencing high vessel utilization rates [20]