1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction. The short - term is expected to maintain range consolidation. Unilateral strategies should focus on high - selling and low - buying, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on the Shanghai - London ratio [3][65][66]. - The tight pattern of the zinc ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The inventory trends at home and abroad are diverging [2][62][63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Total Overview - In August 2025, the global zinc market supply surplus expanded to 47,900 tons. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc supply surplus was 154,000 tons. From July to August 2025, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 2.1712 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.57%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc output was 9.1482 million tons, basically the same as the cumulative output of last year [11]. - The statistical sample of this report shows that the zinc concentrate output in the third quarter of 2025 was 1.4424 million tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 4.254 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.31% [11]. 3.2 Glencore - In 2025, Glencore's zinc concentrate production guidance was adjusted to 94 - 980,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 244,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 2.94% and a year - on - year increase of 7.86%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 709,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.22% [19]. 3.3 Teck - In 2025, Teck's zinc concentrate production guidance was 525,000 - 575,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 150,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.59%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 456,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.81% [24]. 3.4 Boliden - In the third quarter of 2025, Boliden's zinc concentrate output was 108,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 17.75%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 317,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.12% [27]. 3.5 Vedanta - In the third quarter of 2025, Vedanta's zinc concentrate output was 262,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 1.16% and a year - on - year increase of 8.26%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 785,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.65% [32]. 3.6 Nexa - In 2025, Nexa's zinc concentrate production guidance was 300,000 - 336,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 83,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 13.88% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 224,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [37]. 3.7 MMG - In 2025, MMG's zinc concentrate production guidance was 215,000 - 240,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 58,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 4.58% and a year - on - year increase of 26.49%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 166,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.85% [44]. 3.8 Newmont Goldcorp - In 2025, Newmont's zinc concentrate production guidance was 236,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 59,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 11.52% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 184,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.30% [47][48]. 3.9 BHP - In the 2025 fiscal year, BHP's zinc concentrate production guidance was 90,000 - 110,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 36,000 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 10.95% and a year - on - year increase of 85.77%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 102,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 91.03% [49]. 3.10 South32 - In the 2026 fiscal year, South32's zinc concentrate production guidance was 40,000 tons, a decrease compared with the 2025 fiscal year. In the third quarter of 2025, the zinc concentrate output was 8,300 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 21.70% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.40%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 29,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31.74% [50][51]. 3.11 Grupo Mexico - SCC - In 2025, SCC's zinc concentrate production guidance was 174,700 tons, a slight increase compared with the previous period. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 45,500 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 46.42%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 130,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.55% [52]. 3.12 Industrials Pelones - In the third quarter of 2025, Pelones' zinc concentrate output was 63,200 tons, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.33%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 181,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.68% [54]. 3.13 Fresnillo plc - In 2025, Fresnillo plc's zinc concentrate production guidance was 93,000 - 103,000 tons. In the third quarter, the zinc concentrate output was 24,700 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 12.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.41%. The cumulative output in the first three quarters was 78,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 10.61% [57]. 3.14 Market Outlook - The tight pattern of the ore end is expected to continue until the first quarter of next year. The TC has changed from rising to falling, and the industrial chain profit has shifted from the smelter end to the ore end again. The domestic and foreign inventory trends are diverging. Zinc prices are under pressure from above and supported from below, with no clear direction [62][63][65].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In Q4 2025, the TC of zinc ore continued to decline, strengthening the expectation of domestic smelter production cuts. The opening of the zinc ingot export window reduced the pressure of domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulation. The high spread between the domestic and overseas markets attracted attention, with domestic smelters and traders actively seeking exports. The LME zinc has limited room for further significant upside. - There is a need for profit - taking of cross - market long - spread funds, while the participation enthusiasm of cross - market short - spread funds is currently limited. It is a good opportunity to enter cross - market short - spread trades as the inventory difference between domestic and overseas markets has shown signs of convergence, and the fundamentals no longer support the further expansion of the spread. The spread is expected to converge to the range of 1,000 - 1,500 yuan/ton. - The high - low rotation of funds has spread from the stock market to the futures market, and a rebound of oversold varieties can be expected. In Q4, Shanghai zinc is not recommended as a short - allocation. The rebound height is temporarily seen at the annual line of 23,200 yuan/ton. It is unlikely to rebound to the high - level range of 24,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year unless the domestic deflation expectation is broken and overseas consumption exceeds expectations. - The price range of Shanghai zinc in Q4 is expected to be 22,200 - 23,200 yuan/ton, and the price range of LME zinc is 2,900 - 3,100 US dollars/ton. [73][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Price History and Current Situation - Historically, factors such as the European debt crisis, US QE policies, mine shortages, and changes in TC have affected zinc prices. In 2025, the zinc market has complex supply - demand and price relationships. The LME zinc inventory is 35,300 tons, SMM zinc inventory is 159,600 tons, and the smelter raw material inventory is 26 days. The LME 0 - 3 month premium is 117.04 US dollars. [5][21] - In 2025, from January to July, China's zinc ingot production was 3.8425 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.65%. From January to September, the output was 5.0685 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.83%. However, some overseas refineries have reduced production due to factors such as low TC and profit problems. In H1 2025, the overall output of major overseas refineries decreased by 89,900 tons year - on - year, a decline of 4.34%. [28][29][39] 3.2 Market Factors - **Supply - side factors**: New domestic mines such as Huoshaoyun, Russia's OZ mine, and Congo's Kipushi lead - zinc mine have been put into production, effectively alleviating the raw material constraints on domestic refineries. However, overseas refineries' profit recovery will lead to competition for mines between overseas and domestic refineries. [30][41] - **Demand - side factors**: The real estate market has shown signs of weakness, with a decline in real estate investment and a mixed situation in housing sales. The photovoltaic industry has passed the high - growth stage, and the growth rate of new installed capacity has slowed down. However, the export of galvanized sheets has increased, with the cumulative export of 10 - tariff - number galvanized sheets from January to September 2025 reaching 10.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.61%. [62][64][58] - **Policy factors**: The import and export tariffs of zinc products have been adjusted. For example, the export tariff of 0 zinc is 20%, but the provisional tariff in 2025 is 0%. The export of zinc ingots is subject to a 13% VAT, and the export tax rebate has been cancelled since 2008. [34][35] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Cross - market arbitrage**: Cross - market short - spread is recommended as the inventory difference between domestic and overseas markets is converging, and the fundamentals no longer support the further expansion of the spread. - **Unilateral trading**: For LME zinc, beware of sudden warehouse deliveries due to low inventory. The upside space above the 3,100 - dollar integer mark is limited, so short - allocation on rallies is recommended. For Shanghai zinc, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In Q4, short - allocation is not recommended. Look for short - allocation opportunities above 23,000 yuan/ton or short - term long positions on pullbacks. - **Inter - period trading**: Due to the weak current situation and unclear prospects for expectation repair, the inter - period spread is difficult to widen, maintaining a normal positive market structure, and there are no inter - period arbitrage opportunities. [74][75]

Core Insights - Amaroq has confirmed high-grade mineralization of zinc, lead, silver, and newly identified critical minerals (germanium, gallium, cadmium) at the Black Angel mine, fulfilling all conditions for its acquisition [2][6][10] - The West Greenland Hub, which includes the Black Angel mine and Kangerluarsuk exploration licenses, is positioned as a significant development area for Amaroq, enhancing its mineral portfolio and operational capabilities in Greenland [9][10][15] Summary by Sections Highlights - Re-assayed bulk samples from the Black Angel mine show an average of 24.6% zinc, 28.1% lead, and 295 g/t silver, with commercial levels of germanium (44 ppm), gallium (21 ppm), and cadmium (1,328 ppm) identified [6][12] - The results suggest potential commercial concentrate grades of 102 ppm Ge, 48.5 ppm Ga, and 3,040 ppm Cd in future zinc concentrates [6][12] Next Steps - Site reviews at Black Angel have been completed to define upgrade requirements and plan geophysical surveys for the 2026 field season, targeting growth of the current mineral resource of 3.2 million tonnes at 8.8% Zn and 3.0% Pb [6][10] - Initial work will focus on the Deep Ice body, where historical drilling confirmed high grades [6][10] West Greenland Hub - The West Greenland Hub will be 100% owned by Amaroq, separate from the Gardaq joint venture, and will serve as a logistical base for the company's operations [9][10][15] - The Hub is expected to become a new center of mining activity in Greenland, supporting the growing mining and exploration sector [9][10] Black Angel Mine - The Black Angel mine has a historical production of approximately 11.2 million tonnes of ore with high grades of zinc, lead, and silver, making it Greenland's most productive base metal mine of its time [11] - Current estimates indicate significant remaining mineralization, with a focus on leveraging existing infrastructure for a near-term restart of operations [11][12] Kangerluarsuk Project - The Kangerluarsuk project, located 12 km north of Black Angel, presents a promising exploration opportunity with historical high grades of zinc and silver [14] - Amaroq plans to initiate drilling at Kangerluarsuk in 2026 to confirm subsurface mineralization continuity [14]

Core Viewpoint - Evanachan Limited, controlled by Rob McEwen, has converted a C$220,000 convertible debenture into 2,000,000 common shares of Golden Sky Minerals, reflecting confidence in the company's strategy and assets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Conversion Details - The conversion price was set at C$0.11 per share, resulting in the issuance of 2,000,000 common shares [2]. - Following the conversion, Rob McEwen holds approximately 9.0% of Golden Sky's issued and outstanding common shares on a non-diluted basis [2]. Group 2: Company Strategy and Projects - The conversion is seen as a significant vote of confidence in the company's team, strategy, and the quality of its assets, particularly the Rayfield-Gjoll Copper-Gold Project [3]. - The company remains focused on advancing the Rayfield project through an earn-in agreement with Boliden [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Golden Sky Minerals is a Canadian mineral exploration company with a focus on high-potential copper and gold projects across British Columbia, Yukon, and Ontario [4]. - The flagship Rayfield Project is located in a promising porphyry copper-gold district, offering significant discovery potential and excellent infrastructure [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, with electrolytic lead supply rising to 33.47 tons and recycled refined lead supply increasing to 28.58 tons. However, the import window for lead ingots is closed, and battery consumption remains resilient. As a result, social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [2][70] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Lead Market Review - In October, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a mid - month high of 17,660 yuan/ton and finally closing at 17,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.66%. London lead continued to oscillate widely, closing at 2,025 US dollars/ton at the end of October, with a monthly increase of 1.96% [7] II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to August 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 295.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.29%. It is predicted that global lead mine supply will grow by 0.7% to 457 tons in 2025 and 2.2% to 467 tons in 2026. In China, the lead concentrate output from January to September was 124.91 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.54%. With the cold weather, the monthly output is expected to decline month - on - month but remain positive year - on - year [10][11] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and silver concentrate imports decline month - on - month**: In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton month - on - month. The average import processing fee decreased as well. In September, lead concentrate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Silver concentrate imports in September decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and future imports are expected to be under pressure [17][18] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead output was 881.3 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.31%. It is predicted that global refined lead output will increase by 2% to 1,334 tons in 2025 and 0.98% to 1,347.2 tons in 2026 [22] - **Refineries are in a state of reduction and resumption, and the monthly supply of electrolytic lead continues to rise**: In October, electrolytic lead output was 32.6 tons. In November, with the resumption of production in multiple regions, the output is expected to increase to 33.47 tons [27] - **The price of waste batteries is stable with a slight increase, and the supply of recycled lead increases marginally**: In October, the average price of waste batteries increased slightly. The output of recycled refined lead in October was 27.29 tons. In November, with the resumption of production of refineries and the output of new capacities, the output is expected to increase to 28.58 tons [33][34] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead consumption was 875.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.2%. It is predicted that global refined lead demand will grow by 1.8% to 1,325 tons in 2025 and 0.9% to 1,337 tons in 2026. The overseas lead - acid battery market has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly [45][46] - **At the end of the month, battery enterprises cut production, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises declined**: In October, the operating rate of battery enterprises first rose and then fell. In November, it is expected to rise slightly but not significantly [48][49] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures put pressure on battery exports**: In September, lead exports decreased month - on - month, and imports increased. Battery exports decreased. It is expected that lead exports will remain low in October, and imports will increase significantly [50][51] - **Terminal growth is slow, and energy storage performs well**: In the automotive sector, production and sales are growing well. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard is expected to increase lead consumption. The energy storage battery market continues to grow [58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from High Levels - In October, LME inventory first increased and then decreased, and the end - of - year high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly. Social inventory continued to decline in October and is expected to stop falling and rise in November [64] III. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, but the import window for lead ingots is closed. Battery consumption remains resilient. Social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [70]

Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing a significant boom in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure, with no signs of slowing down despite discussions of a potential bubble [1][3] - Nvidia has become the first company to exceed a market value of $5 trillion, while OpenAI is preparing for an IPO that could value it at $1 trillion [2] - Major companies like Microsoft and Amazon are heavily investing in AI, with Microsoft and Alphabet expected to spend around $350 billion combined this year [5] Company Developments - Microsoft and OpenAI have formed a partnership that enhances OpenAI's fundraising capabilities [2] - Amazon announced a reduction of 14,000 corporate jobs, coinciding with its cloud unit reporting the strongest growth in nearly three years [2] - Caterpillar's data center division saw a 31% increase in sales, indicating strong demand in the AI infrastructure space [4] Industry Trends - Over 100 non-tech global companies have acknowledged their involvement with data centers, highlighting the widespread impact of AI across various sectors [4] - The AI supply chain is expanding beyond core technology to include power, industrials, and cooling technology, prompting investors to consider the entire ecosystem [5] - Goldman Sachs projects that global AI-related infrastructure spending could reach between $3 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030 [5] Economic Impact - AI investment is significantly influencing global trade, with approximately 60% of U.S. data center capital expenditures directed towards imported IT equipment, particularly semiconductors from Asia [6] - Companies representing over $21 trillion in market value have reported earnings or discussed AI, with many noting early signs of productivity gains [6] - The future contribution of AI in research and development is expected to grow, as indicated by Schindler's CEO, who raised the company's annual margin forecast [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is expected to be strong, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the MHP price provides cost support. The supply - demand of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in the third quarter [3][4][9]. - The global refined nickel inventory is increasing, and the deliverable products are abundant. The downstream consumption of refined nickel has little expansion, and the consumption growth rate is limited [12][28]. - The production of stainless steel remains at a high level, which supports the demand for primary nickel. However, the price of stainless steel is inverted to the cost, and the production schedule may be more conservative in November. The demand for stainless steel is lackluster, showing the characteristics of "not prosperous in the peak season and not weak in the off - season" [35][49][60]. - The strong demand for ternary materials has led to a tight supply - demand of nickel sulfate, and the price has risen. The new energy vehicle market shows structural growth, with both domestic and overseas markets having certain characteristics [75][90][102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Trend**: In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. Policy factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US economic and trade consultations have increased market risk appetite, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel [3][9]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: From September to October, there was no peak - season feature, and the off - season consumption was expected to be flat. The supply of pure nickel remained high, competing with nickel sulfate for MHP raw materials. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for pure nickel. The supply - demand of pure nickel changed little, and the inventory increased slowly [3][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Refined Nickel Inventory and Supply - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the global visible inventory reached 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the end of last month and 89,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year), and SMM's six - region social inventory at 49,000 tons (an increase of 7,900 tons compared with the end of last month and 7,600 tons compared with the beginning of the year) [12]. - **Supply**: The "PTENICO" brand nickel plate applied for LME delivery, and the total annual production capacity of Chinese - funded electrowon nickel brands applied for registration on the LME reached 221,600 tons. From January to September, LME nickel warrants increased by 74,000 tons [16]. SMM statistics show that China's refined nickel production from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. It is expected that the domestic refined nickel output in October will remain at a high level of 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons month - on - month [25]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel and Nickel Demand - **Raw Material Price and Supply**: In October, the price of Indonesian nickel ore was relatively stable. The production of Indonesian nickel ore is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is also difficult to fall sharply. The Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore port inventory has decreased. The nickel - iron plants and mines are in a deep game [35]. - **Production and Demand**: From January to September, the combined nickel - iron production of China and Indonesia was 1.598 million nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 21%. The production of stainless steel is expected to be more conservative in November due to cost inversion. The demand for stainless steel lacks highlights, and the social inventory has increased after the National Day [41][49][60]. 3.2.3 Ternary Demand and Nickel Sulfate Price - **Nickel Sulfate Price**: In the third quarter, the orders for ternary materials were unexpectedly strong, and the supply - demand of nickel sulfate was tight. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for electrowon nickel and nickel sulfate [75]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In the domestic market, from January to September, the sales of new energy vehicles were 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The sales of new energy heavy - duty trucks increased by 183% year - on - year to 138,700 vehicles. In the overseas market, from January to August 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 234,700 vehicles, and in the US by 8.1% year - on - year to 106,300 vehicles [90][102]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Future Outlook**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates once in December, Sino - US tariffs may be lowered, and the geopolitical situation will ease. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is strong. The downstream consumption of nickel is expected to be flat. The supply of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in November [4][113]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuation [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures showed a weak rebound. The inflation data was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus, and the market risk appetite continued to recover. Domestically, the probability of achieving the annual GDP growth target of 5% was high, and mild policy support at the end of the year was still expected [3][4]. - Fundamentally, the LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the LME0 - 3 spot premium soared to $300, raising concerns about a soft squeeze in the overseas market and strongly supporting zinc prices. The decline in the Shanghai - London ratio strengthened the expectation of zinc ingot exports, and the supply growth of refined zinc was limited due to the narrowing profit of smelters. On the demand side, the start - up rate of primary enterprises decreased slightly, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. Recently, there were small - scale zinc ingot exports, and the weekly inventory decreased slightly [4]. - Overall, the improvement in Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the lower - than - expected US inflation supporting the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the expected mild policy support in China at the end of the year led to the recovery of market risk appetite. The fundamental contradiction centered around the low overseas inventory and strong market structure, as well as domestic zinc ingot exports. It was expected that the zinc price would continue its weak rebound in the short term, but the upside space was cautiously optimistic. The upside space was expected to open up after the large - scale export of zinc ingots [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Price on Oct 17 | Price on Oct 24 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE zinc | 21,815 | 22,355 | +540 | yuan/ton | | LME zinc | 2939.5 | 3019.5 | +80 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London ratio | 7.42 | 7.40 | - 0.02 | - | | SHFE inventory | 109,627 tons | 109,168 tons | - 459 tons | tons | | LME inventory | 38,025 tons | 37,600 tons | - 425 tons | tons | | Social inventory | 16.53 million tons | 16.21 million tons | - 0.32 million tons | million tons | | Spot premium | - 40 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2512, rebounded weakly from a low level, with a weekly increase of 3.48%, and fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. LME zinc stabilized and trended stronger, breaking through the $3000/ton mark again, with a weekly increase of 2.62% [6]. - In the spot market, after the slight rebound of the futures price, downstream procurement became more cautious, mainly for rigid demand, and most transactions were between traders. The spot premium remained weak [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of October 24, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 425 tons to 37,600 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 459 tons to 109,168 tons. As of October 23, the social inventory decreased by 0.32 million tons to 16.21 million tons. The opening of the export window led to some exports [8]. - Macroscopically, the US CPI in September was 3.0% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1% and higher than the previous value of 2.9%. The core CPI was 3.0% year - on - year, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.1%. From October 24 to 25, 2025, the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. China's GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, and some economic indicators in September were weak [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - SMM data showed that the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee in November was 3000 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 650 yuan/ton month - on - month; the average imported ore processing fee was $105.54/dry ton, an increase of $18.03/dry ton month - on - month [12]. - ILZSG reported that from January to August 2025, the global zinc market had a surplus of 154,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 138,000 tons in the same period last year. The global refined zinc production from January to August was 9.152 million tons, and the consumption was 8.998 million tons [12][13]. - MMG's zinc ore production in the third quarter of 2025 was 58,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. Boliden's overall output of lead - zinc concentrates in the third quarter of 2025 increased quarter - on - quarter, but the Tara mine's production ramp - up was slower than expected, and the Odda smelter's refined zinc output decreased [13]. - Vedanta's zinc concentrate metal output in the third quarter of 2025 was 318,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Customs data showed that in September, the imported zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The imported refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 57%. The exported refined zinc was 2500 tons, and the exported galvanized sheet was 1.2262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.73% and a year - on - year increase of 2.27% [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, refined zinc net imports, and the start - up rate of downstream primary enterprises [15][18][22][23][24][26].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead Market**: The lead market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. However, refinery operations are below expectations due to factors such as raw materials, leading to tight spot circulation and extremely low social inventories. The lead price has strongly rallied, breaking through the 17,300 yuan/ton resistance level. There is a need to be vigilant about the possibility of the lead price falling after a sharp rise [1]. - **Zinc Market**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply situation has tightened, making the domestic TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) more likely to fall than rise. The zinc price has received some support at the bottom and has rebounded in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to overseas structural risks as the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens with the continuous decline of LME zinc inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Indicators**: On October 24, 2025, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,125 yuan/ton, up 0.74%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead was 17,615 yuan/ton, up 2.65%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 155.10% to 74,008 lots, while the open interest decreased by 12.28% to 23,288 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 239,750 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 4.98% to 23,734 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, there is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has small fluctuations. For secondary lead, refineries that had previous maintenance have gradually resumed production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, and the operation of lead - acid battery enterprises is good, increasing demand [1]. - **Industry News**: According to the rules of the electric bicycle trade - in activity in Qingyuan City, Guangdong Province in 2025, individual consumers can get a one - time subsidy of 500 yuan when they trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones priced at 1,500 yuan or more. Starting from October 29, 2025, subsidy qualification vouchers will be publicly distributed through the "Yuehuanxin" platform on the Cloud Flash Pay APP. On October 22, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 39.73 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 963 lots to 152,853 lots [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Indicators**: On October 24, 2025, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,030 yuan/ton, up 0.92%; the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc was 22,345 yuan/ton, up 1.57%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 60.71% to 164,360 lots, while the open interest decreased by 5.99% to 124,740 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 34,700 tons, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.49% to 65,529 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores, and the domestic TC in October may still decline. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement, but with the continuous deterioration of the Shanghai - London ratio, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. - **Industry News**: On October 22, Boliden announced its Q3 2025 results. The overall output of its lead - zinc concentrate increased quarter - on - quarter. However, the output of the Tara mine climbed slower than expected due to seasonal factors, lower - than - expected mine development progress, and an unplanned power outage. Boliden reduced its annual planned grinding volume from 1.8 million tons to 1.6 million tons. SMM expects the annual zinc concentrate output to be reduced by about 0.5 - 10,000 metric tons and the lead concentrate output to be reduced by about 2,000 metric tons. In the smelting segment, the refined zinc output of the Odda smelter decreased quarter - on - quarter, and SMM expects its actual output in 2025 to be about 170,000 - 180,000 tons. On October 22, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 338.74 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2,424 lots to 221,589 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Lead**: Consider lightly shorting at high prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas risk appetite has declined, and the A - share market has seen a shrinking - volume weak oscillation. In the short - term, the stock market is expected to be weak, while in the long - term, it is cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market oscillated and rebounded, and a wait - and - see approach is still recommended [2][3]. - Precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Even if there are short - term rebounds due to economic data, the medium - term adjustment trend remains unchanged [4]. - Copper prices are oscillating. Before the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the market is cautious. The overseas macro environment is unstable, and the fundamentals show that supply is constrained and consumption is slightly suppressed, so copper prices are expected to remain high and oscillate in the short - term [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to perform well. Overseas supply is affected, and the domestic market follows the upward trend of the overseas market [7][8]. - Alumina prices are expected to remain weak and stagnant at a low level. Supply is in an oversupply state, but there is cost support at the futures end [9][10]. - Zinc prices are experiencing a weak rebound. Overseas squeeze - out support exists, but the domestic high - inventory pressure remains [11][12]. - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level. Transportation control and production adjustment of some refineries support the price in the short - term, but there is downward pressure in the future [13][14][15]. - Tin prices are in a narrow - range consolidation. Supply and demand are both weak, and there are few new contradictions [16]. - Industrial silicon prices are weakly oscillating. Supply is stable, and demand is mixed. The market is waiting for policies in the polysilicon industry [17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices may see a short - term upward trend driven by bulls, but the upside is not expected to be overly high [19][20]. - Nickel prices may have a technical rebound due to cost support [21]. - For soda ash and glass, the strategy of widening the price difference can be gradually stopped, and the market will be in an oscillating and wait - and - see state later [22]. - Steel prices are under oscillating pressure. Spot trading is stable, but terminal demand is weak [23][24]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. Supply is high, and demand is weakening [25]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are weakly oscillating. The market is waiting for the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations [26][27]. - Palm oil prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Pay attention to the lower support range [28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [30] 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on warehouse receipts, inventories, spot quotes, and other aspects from October 21st to 22nd [31]. - For nickel, it presents the price changes of SHFE nickel and LME nickel, and related data on warehouse receipts, inventories, and premiums from October 21st to 22nd [31]. - Similar data summaries are provided for zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal, including price changes, warehouse receipt and inventory data, and other relevant information [33][34][35][36][37][38]