Core Viewpoint - Oil stocks have seen an increase in afternoon trading, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and U.S. military preparations [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Sinopec (00386) rose by 2.9%, trading at HKD 5.67 [1] - CNOOC (00883) increased by 1.45%, trading at HKD 25.16 [1] - CNOOC Services (02883) gained 1.36%, trading at HKD 9.7 [1] - PetroChina (00857) saw a rise of 1.17%, trading at HKD 9.49 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The U.S. Department of Defense has instructed a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East amid potential military actions against Iran [1] - President Trump has indicated consideration of sending a second carrier strike group to the region in case negotiations with Iran fail [1] - Ping An Securities noted that the uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran, combined with the U.S.-India trade agreement and India's commitment to cease imports of Russian oil while increasing purchases of U.S. and Venezuelan crude, is accelerating the restructuring of global oil trade flows, providing strong short-term support for oil prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the active performance of Hong Kong oil stocks, with notable increases in shares of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and Sinopec, both rising over 2% [1] - CNOOC's stock reached a new high, while CNOOC Oilfield Services rose by 1.8%, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) increased by over 1% [2] - The rise in oil stocks is attributed to traders' focus on the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, overshadowing signals of increased supply, with WTI crude oil stabilizing around $65 per barrel [1] Group 2 - WTI crude oil prices had previously increased by over 1% on Wednesday, despite President Trump's comments aimed at reaching an agreement with Tehran following discussions with Netanyahu [1] - Traders remain concerned about potential military strikes and supply risks, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) is set to release its monthly market outlook report, which may reiterate concerns about global supply surplus [1]

港股石油股持续活跃，其中，中国海洋石油、 中国石油 化工均涨超2%，且中石化刷新上市新高价，中 海 油田服务涨1.8%，中国石油股份涨超1%，昆仑能源跟涨。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the active performance of Hong Kong oil stocks, with notable increases in shares of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) and Sinopec, both rising over 2% [1] - CNOOC's stock price reached a new high since its listing, while CNOOC Oilfield Services rose by 1.8%, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) increased by over 1% [1] - The rise in oil stocks is attributed to traders' focus on the escalating tensions between the US and Iran, overshadowing signals of increased supply, with WTI crude oil stabilizing around $65 per barrel [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that WTI crude oil prices had previously risen by over 1% on Wednesday, despite comments from Trump regarding potential agreements with Tehran [1] - Concerns about potential military strikes and supply risks continue to weigh on traders, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) is set to release its monthly market outlook report, which may reiterate concerns about global supply surplus [1]

近期，国际油价在美伊紧张局势反复等多重因素交织下呈现波动，油价短期逻辑已进入地缘溢价主导。油价震动中，资金抢筹布局石油板块，聚焦全产业链 工具石油ETF（561360）涨超2%，近20日吸金超20亿元。 短期逻辑：地缘溢价主导，油价易涨难跌 短期油价已脱离单纯的基本面定价，进入"地缘消息驱动"模式。市场交易的不是当下的库存，而是未来供应中断的概率。任何风吹草动都可能引发油价脉冲 式上行。 当前油价的定价权，已阶段性让渡给地缘政治。申银万国将其概括为"地缘主导、基本面托底"。这意味着两重含义： 第一，上行风险远大于下行风险。如果美伊发生任何形式的摩擦，或霍尔木兹海峡运输受到实质性干扰，油价将迅速突破当前区间。即使事件不落地，仅仅 是"谈判可能破裂"的消息，就足以驱动油价单日暴涨。 综上，原油市场的供需天平正在从"弱平衡"向"紧平衡"倾斜。过剩叙事正在被库存数据证伪，市场定价权正从看空者向看多者转移。 中长期逻辑：从"周期品"向"战略资产"的价值重估 第二，传统的供需分析框架暂时失效。当前市场关心的不是OECD库存是高是低，也不是中国需求恢复了几成，而是"伊朗的铀浓缩进度""美军在波斯湾的 部署密度""委内瑞拉总 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the ongoing regional tensions are driving up oil prices, with OPEC's monthly report projecting global demand for OPEC+ oil to average 42.6 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 and 42.2 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, unchanged from previous forecasts [1] - Strong demand for air travel and stable road traffic are expected to support oil demand, while the depreciation of the US dollar provides additional support for oil consumption [1] - The situation in Venezuela and Iran has escalated, leading to a sharp increase in demand for compliant oil transportation, while the supply of compliant fleet capacity is limited, pushing VLCC freight rates higher [1] Group 2 - As of February 12, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose by 1.29%, with significant increases in component stocks such as China Merchants Energy rising by 9.98%, COSCO Shipping Energy rising by 8.16%, and China Merchants South Oil rising by 5.98% [1] - The oil ETF Penghua (159697) increased by 1.32%, marking its fifth consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1.38 yuan [1] - The National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies related to the oil and gas industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, Sinopec, and others, collectively accounting for 66.76% of the index [2]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 12 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：成交下降波动收窄 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：节前情绪延续偏暖 4 | | 蛋白粕：盘面减仓力度增加 | 价格大幅上涨 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：美糖跌破下方支撑 | 预计国内价格偏弱 6 | | 油脂板块：假期临近震荡回落，整体维持宽幅震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 9 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货整体支撑 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 | 蛋价有所下跌 11 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 12 | | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 13 | | 钢材：需求延续下滑，钢价震荡承压 14 | | --- | | 双焦：春节临近煤矿陆续放假，年后需关注国内外煤炭市场变化 14 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 15 | | 铁合金：长假临近，多单逢高止盈 16 | | 金银： 非农数据现分歧 市场博弈转 ...

Group 1 - The ongoing regional tensions are disrupting the global oil supply chain, leading to a continuous rise in oil prices, with WTI crude oil up by 1.45% to $64.89 per barrel and Brent crude oil up by 1.15% to $69.60 per barrel [1] - OPEC maintains its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and 2027, expecting an average global demand of 42.6 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 and 42.2 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, unchanged from previous predictions [1] - OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.45 million barrels per day in January, a decrease of 439,000 barrels per day from December 2025, primarily due to a decline in Kazakhstan's production [1] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding the situation in Iran, combined with the recent trade agreement between the US and India, and India's commitment to halt imports of Russian oil while increasing purchases of US and Venezuelan oil, is accelerating the restructuring of global oil trade flows, providing strong short-term support for oil prices [1] - As of February 12, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose by 0.87%, with significant gains in component stocks such as China Merchants Energy (up 6.91%), COSCO Shipping Energy (up 5.34%), and China Merchants Oil (up 4.35%) [1] - The oil ETF Penghua (159697) increased by 0.88%, marking its fifth consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1.38 yuan [1] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and Sinopec, collectively accounting for 66.76% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound funds have significantly increased their holdings in China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), indicating strong investor interest in the company [1] Group 1: Southbound Fund Activity - On February 11, southbound funds increased their holdings by 3.0556 million shares of CNOOC (00883.HK) [1] - Over the past 5 trading days, there have been 5 days of net increases, totaling 59.7527 million shares [1] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 14 days of net increases, amounting to 86.8373 million shares [1] - Currently, southbound funds hold 10.344 billion shares of CNOOC, representing 21.75% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Group 2: Company Overview - CNOOC is primarily engaged in the exploration, development, production, and sales of crude oil and natural gas [1] - The company operates through three segments: exploration and production, trading, and business management [1] - The exploration and production segment focuses on upstream oil activities, including conventional oil and gas, shale oil and gas, oil sands, and other unconventional oil and gas [1] - The trading segment involves crude oil trading, including sales of crude oil and natural gas under production-sharing contracts with foreign partners and third-party crude oil trading [1] - The business management segment handles headquarters management, financial management, and research and development [1] - CNOOC operates in both domestic and international markets [1]

Core Insights - The National Energy Administration announced ten landmark achievements in oil and gas exploration and development for 2025, highlighting significant advancements in domestic production capabilities and resource management. Group 1: Oil and Gas Production Achievements - By 2025, domestic crude oil production is expected to reach 216 million tons, a historical high, while natural gas production will exceed 260 billion cubic meters, marking the first time production exceeds 200 million tons of equivalent [1] - The "Seven-Year Action Plan" has successfully concluded, with cumulative newly proven geological reserves of oil and gas exceeding 10 billion tons and 10 trillion cubic meters from 2019 to 2025, reinforcing the foundation for sustained production [1] Group 2: Regional Production Highlights - The Ordos Basin has established the country's first 100 million-ton oil and gas production base, with oil production stabilizing at 38 million tons and natural gas production nearing 80 billion cubic meters [2] - The Sichuan Basin's natural gas production is projected to surpass 80 billion cubic meters, contributing over 40% to national production, with shale gas accounting for approximately 27 billion cubic meters [3] Group 3: Marine Oil and Gas Developments - Marine oil production is expected to exceed 66 million tons, with natural gas production around 30 billion cubic meters, leading to a total marine oil and gas equivalent of 90 million tons [4] - Significant discoveries in the Bohai Sea include three large to medium-sized oil fields, with the Qinhuangdao 29-6 oil field achieving proven reserves of over 100 million tons [4] Group 4: Shale Oil and Technology Advancements - The establishment of national-level shale oil demonstration zones in Xinjiang, Daqing, and Shengli is expected to enhance production capacity, with core technologies leading to rapid output increases [5] - The deep earth exploration initiative has achieved breakthroughs, including the successful drilling of wells exceeding 10,000 meters, with significant gas discoveries in the Tarim Basin [6] Group 5: Technological Innovations in Oil and Gas - The industry is advancing towards high-end technology with the development of new equipment for exploration and extraction, including the first domestically produced 80,000-pound controlled seismic source [7] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is leading the digital transformation of offshore oil fields, with the "Deep Sea One" gas field being recognized as a model for intelligent factory practices [8] Group 6: Sustainable Practices and Energy Transition - Sinopec's Victory Oilfield has pioneered a clean thermal energy utilization model, achieving significant energy savings and reducing natural gas consumption [9] - The Jilin Oilfield has implemented the "Honggang Model" for green transformation, significantly increasing oil production while reducing carbon emissions and energy consumption [10]