国际油价周四从连续两日下跌中反弹，大涨逾3%至两周高位。 尽管美国计划向国内炼油商出售至多5000万桶委内瑞拉原油，且美国汽油和馏分油库存上升，但投资者对委内瑞拉局势发展的评估以及对俄罗 斯、伊拉克和伊朗供应中断的担忧推动油价走高。 当地时间周三，美国能源部长Chris Wright在接受媒体采访时表示，预计雪佛龙将迅速扩大在委内瑞拉的业务，康菲石油和埃克森美孚也在寻求发 挥建设性作用。但能源咨询公司Ritterbusch and Associates指出： 大量委内瑞拉原油进入美国墨西哥湾地区可能需要数年时间。 市场同时密切关注其他主要产油国的供应风险。据报道，一艘驶往俄罗斯的油轮在黑海遭遇无人机袭击，伊拉克因美国对俄罗斯Lukoil实施制裁 而推进West Qurna 2油田国有化，伊朗则因经济困境引发全国性抗议并实施互联网封锁。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责 任自负。 周四布伦特原油期货结算价上涨2.03美元，涨幅3.4%，至每桶61.99美元。 ...

周四，油价小幅走高，投资者正在评估美国可能对俄罗斯实施进一步制裁，以及委内瑞拉油轮遭封锁所 引发的供应风险。 纽约商品交易所1月交割的西得州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨0.21美元，涨幅为0.38%，收于每桶 56.15美元。 BOK Financial交易部高级副总裁丹尼斯·基斯勒（Dennis Kissler）表示："原油期货正试图从委内瑞拉石 油出口封锁中寻找支撑。如果封锁持续下去，该地区的产量很可能被迫关停，因为已无目的地可运送原 油。" 据媒体周三援引知情人士消息报道，若莫斯科未能与乌克兰达成和平协议，美国正准备对俄罗斯能源部 门实施新一轮制裁。不过，一名白宫官员向路透社表示，唐纳德·特朗普总统尚未就对俄制裁作出任何 决定。 基斯勒指出："如果俄乌之间无法达成和平协议，针对俄罗斯的打击可能会升级，从而迅速收紧全球供 应。再加上委内瑞拉石油出口受阻，当前的原油价格或许被低估了。" 周四，油价小幅走高，投资者正在评估美国可能对俄罗斯实施进一步制裁，以及委内瑞拉油轮遭封锁所 引发的供应风险。 纽约商品交易所1月交割的西得州中质原油（WTI）期货价格上涨0.21美元，涨幅为0.38%，收于每桶 56.15 ...

在本轮计价周期内，国际原油价格走势先抑后扬，但整体均价仍较上一周期有所下降。 金联创成品油分析师王延婷表示，本轮计价周期之初，市场关注焦点集中于新一轮乌克兰问题会谈，但 地缘政治局势并未真正缓解，未能对油价形成持续支撑。 来源：中国经营报 12月8日，国家发展改革委发布信息，近期国际市场油价波动运行，按照现行成品油价格机制，自当日 24时起，国内汽、柴油价格（标准品）每吨均降低55元。 《中国经营报》记者梳理发现，本次调价是2025年以来的第十一次下调。至此，年内成品油调价呈 现"七涨十一跌六搁浅"的格局。 本轮调价后，折合升价，92号汽油、95号汽油及0号柴油每升分别下调0.04元、0.05元和0.05元。以油箱 容量50升的普通私家车估算，加满一箱92号汽油将节省2元左右。 金联创原油分析师韩政己表示，从当前局势看，美委局势存在多种可能的发展方向。对于原油市场来 说，持续升级的紧张局势在近期对油价的影响正逐渐变大。市场数据显示，截至2025年，委内瑞拉目前 原油日产量为110万桶。若该国局势进一步升级，这部分原油供应将面临风险。若美委双方爆发冲突， 则势必会对全球原油市场产生剧烈影响。 在市场供应方面，石 ...

Core Viewpoint - The crude oil market is facing significant resistance levels, and the outlook appears bearish unless buyers can defend key support zones [1][6]. Technical Analysis - Crude oil is currently under resistance from the 200-day moving average at approximately $60.96, Friday's high at $60.50, and the 50-day moving average at $59.67, creating a strong ceiling for prices [1]. - The short-term retracement zone is identified between $59.23 and $58.44, which is seen as the next support area [1]. Market Sentiment - The ongoing Ukraine peace talks are contributing to supply risk, as any potential ceasefire could lead to increased Russian oil exports, which traders are cautious about [2]. - Analysts at PVM suggest that even speculation about renewed Russian exports is enough to dampen market sentiment [2]. Economic Factors - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement a quarter-point rate cut, with market expectations at around 84%, which typically would support crude prices; however, uncertainty regarding supply may counteract this effect [3]. - The market is not fully confident in a smooth policy path from the Fed, indicating that while lower rates may provide some support, they are unlikely to outweigh supply-side uncertainties [3]. Supply Dynamics - Trump's influence on Ukraine could potentially swing global oil supply by over 2 million barrels per day, creating a wide range of outcomes that the market is hesitant to price in aggressively [4]. - Additional factors such as potential new G7/EU restrictions on Russian exports, U.S. pressure on Venezuela, and increased Iranian oil imports by Chinese refiners contribute to a complex supply landscape [5]. Market Outlook - The overall outlook for crude oil remains bearish, with the market boxed under major moving-average resistance and momentum declining [6]. - The key area to monitor for potential dip-buyers is the $59.23–$58.44 retracement zone, which must hold for a bullish reversal to occur [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance in trends and poor operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, also suggesting a short - term balance in trends and poor operability [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆, indicating a short - term balance in trends and poor operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] Report's Core View - Amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, different energy products are affected in various ways. Investors should pay attention to supply risks and price fluctuations, and choose appropriate investment strategies based on product fundamentals and geopolitical situations [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Before the US and Iran resume negotiations, the Israel - Iran conflict shows no clear sign of downgrading. Although OPEC's effective idle capacity and OPEC+'s production increase elasticity can make up for Iran's oil exports in about 6 months, investors should focus on the risk of attacks on Iran's oil production and export facilities and short - term supply reduction [2] - Based on the market pricing performance in 2011 when Iran threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, the extreme upside risk of the Brent crude oil near - month contract points to $80 - 90 per barrel. Investors are advised to hold out - of - the - money call options for hedging and adopt a medium - term short strategy after the geopolitical situation eases [2] - Due to the direct impact of Middle East geopolitical risks on the supply of medium - sulfur crude oil, the tanker freight from the Middle East to China is supported, and the spread between SC and Brent is expected to rise [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - After the pulse - like rise and subsequent decline of crude oil today, the upward trend of fuel - related futures has come to a halt [3] - The Israel - Iran conflict boosts the geopolitical premium of high - sulfur fuel oil, but the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil from ship bunkering and deep - processing is weak, and the demand boost from summer power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is limited due to high valuation. The FU crack spread is expected to be under pressure [3] - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil remains abundant, the demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is insufficient, and the LU crack spread declines when crude oil strengthens due to geopolitical premium [3] Asphalt - Today, oil prices fell from high levels, and asphalt mainly fluctuated. Due to the gradual consumption of crude oil quotas, the increase in production of local refineries lacks resilience. After the peak maintenance period, major refineries plan to increase the operation of deep - processing units, and the increase in asphalt production is expected to be limited [4] - The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year growth has turned positive. The sales volume of road rollers, a leading indicator of asphalt consumption, increased significantly year - on - year from January to April, indicating a substantial boost in terminal demand soon [4] - The latest factory and social inventories of asphalt have both declined. The fundamental support factors for asphalt still exist, but the BU crack spread is under pressure before the risk of rising oil prices caused by geopolitical risks is eliminated [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The Middle East geopolitical conflict is still intensifying, increasing the risk of Iran's LPG production and exports. The international market prices in the risk and remains strong [5] - Currently, China's chemical demand for LPG is still recovering, and attention should be paid to the pressure of declining margins after the increase in import costs. The mid - month arrival volume and refinery gas release are both increasing. If the geopolitical risk eases, the supply pressure will bring strong downward pressure [5] - The fundamental supply - side pressure remains, but the market has been oscillating strongly recently to price in the risk [5]