Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.09% on January 26, with 10 industries experiencing gains, led by non-ferrous metals and petroleum & petrochemicals, which rose by 4.57% and 3.18% respectively. The coal industry ranked third in terms of gains [1] - The defense and military industry and the automotive sector saw the largest declines, with drops of 4.47% and 2.31% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 114.32 billion yuan, with six industries seeing net inflows. The non-bank financial sector led with a net inflow of 3.493 billion yuan and a daily increase of 0.79%, followed by the pharmaceutical and biological industry, which had a net inflow of 2.839 billion yuan and a daily increase of 0.29% [1] - A total of 25 industries experienced net capital outflows, with the electronics sector leading at a net outflow of 27.721 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with a net outflow of 20.306 billion yuan. Other sectors with significant outflows included defense and military, machinery, and automotive [1] Coal Industry Performance - The coal industry rose by 2.07% with a net capital inflow of 450 million yuan, comprising 37 stocks, of which 28 increased and 9 decreased. Among the stocks with net inflows, 20 saw capital inflows exceeding 30 million yuan, with China Shenhua leading at 169 million yuan, followed by Shaanxi Coal and Huayang Co., which had inflows of 157 million yuan and 77.425 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the largest capital outflows included Zhengzhou Coal Power, Electric Power Energy, and Yongtai Energy, with outflows of 45.022 million yuan, 42.177 million yuan, and 29.549 million yuan respectively [2][3]

型及広 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 版费 行业 相关研究 近券研究报 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 26 日 节前寒潮频繁扰动,有望支撑 委员 娱炭行业周报（2026.1.17-2026.1.23） 本期投资后了 ● 动力煤方面，截至 1 月 23 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500动力煤现货价收报 514、599、685元/吨，环比-8、-9、-10 元/吨。供给端, 据中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 159.11 万吨，环比上周减少 0.6 万 吨,降幅 0.39%,同比下降 4.12%,产地生产正常,降雪对运输的影响已消除。需求 端,寒潮来 ...

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 26 日 节前寒潮频繁扰动，有望支撑煤价 反弹 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2026.1.17-2026.1.23） 本期投资提示： | 1．近期行业政策及动态 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 2．产地动力煤价环比下跌、焦煤价环比持平 | 5 | | 3．国际油价上涨 | 6 | | 4．环渤海港口库存环比下降 | 7 | | 5．国内沿海运费环比上涨 | 8 | | 6．重点公司估值表 | 9 | | 7．风险提示 | 9 | ⚫ 动力煤 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the coal industry, specifically discussing coal prices and production trends for 2025 and 2026 [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Coal Production Data - National raw coal production for 2025 is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2]. - December 2025's monthly raw coal production was 440 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.0% [2]. - Daily average production in December was 14.1 million tons, aligning with expectations [2]. - The production trend indicates a high supply in the first half of 2025, followed by a decrease in the latter half, leading to a constrained overall supply [3]. Predictions for 2026 - The coal production for 2026 is not expected to exceed that of 2025 due to two main factors: 1. Gradual exit of pre-synthetic capacity, particularly in major production areas like Shaanxi [4]. 2. Increased safety regulations starting February 1, 2026, which will raise costs for smaller mines, potentially leading to capacity exits [5][6]. - Estimated capacity exit due to safety regulations could be around 70-80 million tons over two years [5]. Import Coal Trends - December 2025 saw a record high of 58 million tons in coal imports, attributed to: 1. Significant price increases in October and November, prompting coastal power plants to increase imports [6][7]. 2. Year-end contracts leading to concentrated customs declarations [7]. - Uncertainties in Indonesia's export policies, including new tariffs and quotas, may reduce coal exports in 2026 compared to 2025 [8][10]. Price Trends - Current coal prices show a slight decline, with Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal priced at 685 RMB, down from 695 RMB [10]. - Inner Mongolia coal prices increased to 1800 RMB, up by 30 RMB from the previous week [10]. - The differentiation between thermal coal and coking coal prices continues, with coking coal showing stronger performance [10][12]. Inventory and Demand - National power plant inventories decreased by 2.7 percentage points week-on-week and 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand [14]. - The available days of inventory are currently at 17.9 days, down 4.1 days from the previous year [14]. - A cold weather forecast could further tighten inventory levels and boost prices [14][11]. Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend in prices over the next 1-2 weeks, influenced by weather conditions and inventory levels [11][12]. - Post-Spring Festival, the market may shift into a seasonal downturn for thermal coal while coking coal could enter a demand peak [24][25]. Additional Insights - The overall trend in global commodity prices, including oil and natural gas, shows a strong correlation with coal prices, indicating a robust demand environment [17][18]. - The shift towards clean energy sources continues to impact coal demand, with significant growth in renewable energy generation [19][20]. - The coal industry's performance in 2026 will heavily depend on electricity generation growth, which is projected to be around 3% [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The focus remains on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, such as China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy, and Huaihe Energy, which are expected to perform well in a stable market [27][28]. - Specific stocks like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company are highlighted as key investment opportunities for 2026 due to their strong fundamentals and market positioning [30][31].

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the real estate chain logic and investment opportunities within the real estate sector, highlighting the recent strong performance of real estate-related stocks [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Market Sentiment - The speaker emphasized a positive outlook for the market, predicting a potential rise to 4200 points before the Spring Festival, indicating a strong market sentiment despite regulatory interventions [2][3]. - The speaker noted that while 300 stocks appeared constrained, the majority of stocks performed well, suggesting a broader market strength [2][3]. Real Estate Sector Insights - The real estate sector has seen significant declines, with residential investment as a percentage of GDP dropping to 4.5%, and real estate investment growth decreasing by nearly 60% [6]. - Sales area has fallen by approximately 50% from peak levels, and housing prices have decreased by 30% to 40% [6]. - The speaker highlighted the critical role of stabilizing the real estate market for national economic stability and internal demand growth, especially in the face of external uncertainties [6][7]. Investment Opportunities - The speaker identified three key investment directions: 1. Quality real estate companies with a price-to-book (PB) ratio below one, indicating deep discounts [9]. 2. Companies in the real estate supply chain, particularly in construction materials, chemicals, and appliances, which have seen improved competitive dynamics due to market consolidation [10]. 3. Urban renewal projects that will drive demand for construction materials and related services [10]. Regulatory Environment - The speaker discussed the regulatory environment, suggesting that early interventions by regulators could lead to a more stable market and longer-term growth [4][5]. Additional Insights - The real estate and related sectors currently represent only 8.1% of the total A-share market capitalization, while consumer goods account for 9.4% despite contributing 43% to GDP [8]. - The speaker noted that the current low expectations and stock valuations create a favorable environment for potential recovery in the real estate sector [8]. Transportation Sector Insights - The transportation sector, particularly aviation and oil shipping, is expected to see increased demand during the upcoming Spring Festival, with passenger traffic projected to reach 9.5 billion, a 5% increase from the previous year [12][13]. - The oil shipping market has seen a significant rise in freight rates, with expectations for continued profitability in Q1 2026 [14]. Chemical Sector Insights - The chemical sector is closely tied to the real estate chain, with optimism regarding demand recovery for products like MDI, PVC, and soda ash due to improving internal demand [17][18]. - Key companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical and Boryung Chemical, are highlighted for their competitive advantages and growth potential [19][21]. Metal Sector Insights - The metal sector remains bullish, with expectations for continued price increases driven by supply disruptions and strong demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy [26][29]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum, are seen as strategic resources with strong long-term demand prospects [29][30]. Energy Sector Insights - Oil prices are expected to remain stable around $60-$65 per barrel, with limited downside risk due to production cost considerations [34][35]. - The speaker noted that geopolitical factors could temporarily influence prices, but the overall supply-demand balance suggests a bearish outlook for the next 1-2 years [35][36]. Coal Sector Insights - The coal market is experiencing fluctuations due to seasonal demand, with expectations for price pressures in the spring as new projects commence [42][43]. - The speaker indicated that without significant fiscal stimulus, coal prices may face downward pressure in the upcoming quarters [42][43].

（来源：工人日报） 本报讯 （记者毛浓曦 祝盼）最近，创新达人、陕西煤业化工集团有限公司柠条塔矿业矿井维修电工焦 悦峰的劲头更足了。不久前，他通过了集团公司的2025年度特级技师首席技师评价答辩，在获评首席技 师的同时也获得高级工程师职称。 "全省首次试点，好政策的阳光就照到我身上，首席技师职业技能等级证书、高级工程师职称证书一次 拿，更得好好干，现在正在创作一台多功能锚杆机，以提高打帮锚速度。"焦悦峰说。 焦悦峰说的这项好政策就是陕西省在陕煤集团试点的"一评两证"人才评价新模式。2025年，陕西省人社 厅等8部门为激活各类企业技能人才培养主体作用，出台了《陕西省推动技能强企工作13条措施》。其 中明确，深入实施"新八级工"职业技能等级制度，并提出遴选一批高技能人才和专业技术人才密集的重 点产业链企业，开展"一评两证"工作试点，企业人才参加本单位一次评审，通过后可同时获得职称证书 和职业技能等级证书。 陕煤集团在试点中，健全完善了组织机构，结合企业实际出台《特级技师首席技师评价管理办法》《高 技能人才"一评两证"工作方案（试行）》，明确了申报条件、评价方式等要求；在评价标准的设置上， 从职业品德、创新能力、实 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, among others [11][14]. Core Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a weak supply-demand balance, with prices expected to remain stable amidst high inventory levels and fluctuating demand [18][30]. - The report highlights the potential for "black swan" events, particularly from increased demand in the U.S. and reduced production/export from Indonesia, which could significantly impact coal prices [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring companies with overseas operations, such as Qinfa and Yancoal Australia, as they may benefit from shifts in the global coal trade [3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index reached 3743.77 points, up 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [77]. - The U.S. coal stock BTU reached a new high of $39.95 per share, indicating a strong market performance [2]. - Indonesia is tightening coal supply by closing illegal mining operations, which could further influence global coal prices [2]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: Daily consumption is rising, but high inventory levels are leading to a weak market sentiment. Prices are expected to fluctuate as the market approaches the Chinese New Year [18][30]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening. Focus is on pre-holiday stockpiling needs [37][51]. - **Coke**: Price increases have been delayed, and market sentiment is declining, with steel mills maintaining cautious purchasing strategies [51][75]. Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Qinfa, which are well-positioned to capitalize on market changes [14][12]. - Companies like Peabody (BTU) and Jin控煤业 are also highlighted for their potential growth opportunities [14][12].

| [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 王楠瑀(分析师) | 021-38032030 | wangnanyu@gtht.com | S0880525070029 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下行 风险充分释放。 投资要点： 地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有望修复 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 股 票 研 究 业 跟 煤炭《2025 年用电量超 10 万亿 kwh，需求开启 上行周期》2026.01.19 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260118》2026.01.18 煤炭《反内卷再起，需求端预计 26 年开启上行周 期》2026.01.11 煤炭《国 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for several key companies in the coal industry, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Xinji Energy, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating for Pingmei Shenma Group [5][11]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to face a dual weakness in supply and demand as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a potential stabilization in coal prices [18][31]. - The report highlights the impact of AI on reshaping the U.S. coal market, indicating a rebound in demand that could influence global coal trade dynamics [2][3]. - Indonesia's government is tightening regulations on illegal mining, which may affect coal supply and prices globally [2][3]. Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3743.77 points, an increase of 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.06 percentage points [78]. - The report notes that U.S. coal consumption is experiencing explosive growth, while exports are expected to slow down, leading to a tighter global coal trade balance [3][35]. - As of January 23, 2026, the price of thermal coal at northern ports was reported at 691 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 13 RMB/ton [31][19]. Key Areas of Analysis - **Thermal Coal**: The report indicates a rise in daily consumption and cost support, but high inventory levels may lead to price fluctuations [18][31]. - **Coking Coal**: The first round of price increases has faced resistance, and market sentiment is weakening due to rising costs impacting profitability for coking enterprises [38][49]. - **Coke**: The market is experiencing a pause in price increases, with a shift in sentiment leading to increased selling pressure from intermediaries [52][76]. Focused Companies - Key companies recommended for investment include China Shenhua, Yancoal Australia, and Shaanxi Coal and Energy, with a focus on those involved in smart mining and international coal markets [14][12]. - The report also highlights companies like Peabody (BTU) and China Qinfa, which are positioned to benefit from international market dynamics [14][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the coal industry, indicating an expected relative performance that exceeds the benchmark index by over 10% [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant rebound in daily coal consumption due to a cold wave, with a focus on pre-holiday inventory replenishment needs [1]. - It notes that while coal prices have seen a decline, they are expected to stabilize as demand is projected to rise, particularly leading up to the Spring Festival [9]. - The supply side remains constrained due to "anti-involution" policies and strict safety regulations, which are likely to limit production increases [9]. Summary by Sections Production and Demand - In December, national raw coal production was 437 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1% and a slight month-on-month increase of 2.4%. The total annual production reached 4.832 billion tons, up 1.2% year-on-year [7]. - The report indicates that electricity generation, pig iron, and cement production saw year-on-year declines of 3.2%, 9.9%, and 6.6% respectively in December [7]. Price Trends - As of January 23, the Qinhuangdao coal price was 686 RMB/ton, reflecting a decrease of 11 RMB/ton year-on-year [7]. - The average daily coal consumption across 25 provinces was 6.59 million tons, up 12.1% year-on-year, while average inventory levels decreased by 5% [7]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that coal prices may face upward pressure as the demand season approaches, despite recent price declines [9]. - It suggests that companies such as Lu'an Environmental Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and Shanxi Coal International are worth monitoring for potential investment opportunities [9].