数据来源：沪深交易所等，截至2025.12.4早盘 洛阳钼业大涨4.54%，云铝股份涨超2%，北新建材、宁德时代涨超1%，中国石油、中金黄金、中国铝 业等中字头"现金牛"纷纷上涨。 | | 代码 | 名称 | 估算权重 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 603993 | 洛阳镇业 | 3.35% | 4.54% | | 2 | 000807 | 云铝股份 | 0.87% | 2.69% | | 3 | 000786 | 北新建材 | 0.21% | 1.33% | | 4 | 601857 | 中国石油 | 10.59% | 1.31% | | 5 | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 0.55% | 1.16% | | 6 | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 2.55% | 1.18% | | 7 | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 6.22% | 1.10% | | 8 | 000333 | 美的集团 | 4.75% | 0.94% | | 9 | 000975 | 山金国际 | 0.36% | 0.95% | | 10 | 600219 | 南 ...

Flash | 03 Dec 2025 09:56:58 ET │ 11 pages China Materials Reiterating Our Key Calls, Aluminum and Copper Most Preferred, Followed by Battery Chain CITI'S TAKE As we approach year-end, we reiterate our key calls: 1) prefer aluminum and copper ahead of potential Fed rate cut; 2) bullish battery chain price hike cycle; 3) we have turned more cautious on anti-involution sectors. Sector pecking order: Aluminum > Copper > Battery > Gold > Battery Materials > Coal > Cement > Steel. Cross-sector top picks: Hongqia ...

对话蒙煤专家：2026 年蒙煤进口展望 20251203 电子竞拍是一把双刃剑，为蒙古带来外汇和收益，但稳定性较差。在市场下行 时持续流拍，上涨时溢价最高达 200 美元以上。然而，由于通关时间较长，有 可能在到达中国后出现亏损。今年（2025 年）放标 3,620 万吨，成交 1,895 万吨，流拍率近 50%。动力煤占 72%，主焦煤仅 28%，其中 M4 占比较大， 而 M3 和 M5 金牌较少。 摘要 蒙古煤炭进口受政局不确定性影响，但跨境铁路项目和长期合同保障了 增长潜力。预计 2026 年进口量将维持在 8,000-8,300 万吨，价格保持 相对稳定。 2025 年煤炭市场价格波动大，6 月跌至 710 元/吨，11 月反弹至 1,180 元/吨。长期贸易商盈利，竞拍贸易商亏损，期限商利润较好，平 均每吨约 50 元。 蒙古煤炭出口增量取决于中国政策支持和市场稳定。总理会面虽提出 1 亿吨目标，但生产、通关和仓储能力仍面临挑战。 炼焦煤占比下降，预计 2026 年降至 65%左右，约 6,000 万吨。塔班 陶勒盖矿山是主要来源，但 5 号主焦煤产量预计下降。 蒙古可能采取落地加工政策，优化竞拍 ...

12月4日早盘，有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格上涨2%冲击历史高点，资金实时净申购240万份，此 前已连续3日净流入。成份股方面，锡业股份、西部矿业、华锡有色等多股涨超5%。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 · | | | | | F9 盘前盘用 露加 九转 面线 工具 @ (2 ) | | | | | | 有色龙头ETF | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.919/ | | | | 159876[南色龙头ETF] 09:40 6 0.919 图表 0.018(2.00%) 编龄 0.914 | | 2 0000 500 | | 0.979 +0.018 +2.00% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | SZSE CNY 9:40:24 交易中 查看(2全国 | | | | | 7 . . + | | and | | | | | | 1,0096 | 净值是设 | | 华富中经有色金属ETF | 今年 | 77.44% 120日 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：美国 ADP 数据意外下降 【市场资讯】1）贝森特淡化美联储主席对利率掌控权，拟推动设地区联储主席居住年限， 称关税可重构。白宫取消原定面试流程，新美联储主席哈塞特"呼之欲出"。报道：债券投 资者针对哈塞特出任美联储主席的可能性警告美国财政部。2）美国 11 月 ADP 意外下滑， 就业人数减少 3.2 万人，创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，小企业失业人数激增。3）美国 ISM 服务业 PMI 扩张速度创九个月最快，价格指标七个月新低，就业指数六个月新高。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，10 月份受上年同期基数抬高、财务费用增长较快等因素影响，规 模以上工业企业利润同比下降 5.5%。当前工业企业利润增速受"量价双弱"格局拖累，边际 回落特征显著，营收利润率偏弱的态势未得到明显改善。展望短期，预计年内规模以上工 业企业利润增速将持续面临较大压力，大概率维持弱势震荡格局。中长期来看，随着宏观 托底政策逐步落地见效，叠加"反内卷"相关政策推动行业竞争格局优化，企业经营环境将 逐步改善，2025 年工业企业盈利有望进入逐步修复通道。中国 11 月官方制造业 PMI 环比 回升至 49.2，整体呈现 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up 0.17%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.21%, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the gains, particularly Zijin Mining up 3.11% and China Aluminum up 2.77% [1] - Biotechnology stocks also saw significant increases, with Gilead Sciences rising by 3.7% and BeiGene up by 3.1% [1] - Huaxia Fund believes that the previous irrational panic in the Hong Kong tech sector has eased, and with AI development paths being pragmatic and commercialization clear, valuations are at historical lows, suggesting a potential recovery ahead of A-shares and the Hang Seng Index [1] Group 2 - CICC suggests that ahead of a significant US-China meeting, expectations of continued US easing and elevated Chinese policy expectations may support risk assets, recommending an overweight position in Chinese stocks before the meeting [1] - Guoyuan International notes uncertainty in the Fed's decision-making direction before the release of recent economic data, but the overall valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is supported by the Fed's dovish shift and the restoration of dollar liquidity after the US government reopened [1] - Zhongtai Securities sees a new cycle for coal, recommending investment opportunities in the coal sector by focusing on high dividend, low valuation stocks, and companies with significant capacity growth and profit elasticity [2]

Market Overview - US stock market continues to rise with increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a slight opening increase in Hong Kong stocks, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.17% at 25,804.01 points [1] - Major technology stocks mostly rose, with Alibaba down 0.33%, Tencent down 0.16%, JD.com up 0.61%, Xiaomi up 0.3%, NetEase up 0.32%, Meituan up 0.94%, and Kuaishou up 0.07% [1] - The innovative drug concept opened high, with Gilead Sciences up over 3% and BeiGene up 3.1% [1] - Real estate stocks were active, with China Oceanwide Holdings up over 1% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector performed actively, with Chalco International up 7.17% and Luoyang Molybdenum up 3.43% [1] - Airline stocks opened lower, with China Eastern Airlines down over 1% [1] - Robotics concept stocks opened high, with Sanhua Intelligent Control up 5.67% and Yujian up 4.06% [1] Company News - InnoCare Pharma (02577.HK) has reached a strategic cooperation agreement with ON Semiconductor to accelerate the development of the GaN industry ecosystem [2] - The collaboration aims to integrate InnoCare's advanced GaN manufacturing capabilities with ON Semiconductor's expertise in system packaging and integration, potentially generating hundreds of millions in GaN sales over the next few years [2] - Agile Group (03383.HK) reported a total pre-sale amount of approximately 8.08 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 45.2% [3] - Jingrui Holdings (01862.HK) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 876 million, a year-on-year decrease of 54.1% [4] - China Aluminum International (02068.HK) announced that its subsidiary won a bid for a new 394,000 tons/year electrolytic aluminum project in Shanxi, with a total contract price of 3.03 billion [4] - Stone Pharmaceutical Group (01093.HK) received clinical trial approval for a selective 5-HT2A receptor agonist in the US [5] - Fosun Pharma (02196.HK) received clinical trial approval for its subsidiary's FXS887 tablets [6] - Zai Lab (02617) had its Tislelizumab tablets included in the priority review list by the National Medical Products Administration [7] - Deking Pharma (06996) received approval in Hong Kong for its Hivio® to treat two new indications: multiple myeloma and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma [7] - Kaisa Group (01813) has postponed its liquidation hearing to December 8 [8] Industry Insights - According to CCB International, domestic demand policies are being promoted, and the market is focusing on the "New Year" expectations [9] - After the consolidation in November, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to welcome a layout window for the year-end rally in December [9] - The focus is shifting from external environments to internal policies, with attention on the Central Economic Work Conference scheduled for mid-December [9] - Tianfeng Securities reported that most northern provinces have begun implementing staggered production during the heating season, with over 85% of clinker lines in a shutdown state [9] - The overall staggered production efforts have strengthened, with Hunan planning a month-long shutdown in December due to environmental pressures [9] - The bottom profitability support for cement is strong in the short term, with head enterprises starting to address overproduction capacity indicators [9]

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral market sentiment with a score of 41, suggesting a period of market consolidation and caution among investors [5][7][19] - Key themes identified include non-ferrous metals, banking, and AI mobile phones, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment opportunities [5][19] Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals theme is driven by expectations of increased demand due to potential US interest rate cuts and AI data center growth, leading to a price increase for copper and aluminum [5] - Copper prices are supported by financial attributes, supply constraints, and resilient traditional demand, while aluminum faces tight balance due to peak domestic capacity and limited overseas growth [5] Banking Sector - Banking stocks are characterized by high dividend yields, with the China Securities Banking Index yielding 6.02%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield [5] - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, banking stocks are seen as stable investment options for long-term funds such as insurance and social security [5] AI Mobile Phones - ZTE has launched a limited release of the Nubia M153, featuring the "Doubao Phone Assistant," aimed at developers and tech enthusiasts [5] - This technology is embedded at the system level, allowing for complex command execution across applications, differentiating it from standard phone assistants [5] Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - The market sentiment temperature indicator suggests that when the score is below 30, the market may find support, while scores above 70 indicate potential resistance [7][19] - The report recommends a flexible investment approach based on individual stock performance and market information during the current neutral sentiment phase [19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market is in a macro - policy vacuum period, but there may be expectations later. The fundamentals show that last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar closed flat and hot - rolled coils closed down. They also closed down at night [1] Important Information - In October 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output was 3.6244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons or 2.22%. In October, China's stainless - steel imports were 124,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons or 3.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 34,100 tons or 21.56%. From January to October, the total stainless - steel imports were 1.2621 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 343,000 tons or 21.37%. In October, the domestic stainless - steel exports were 358,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,400 tons or 14.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 59,300 tons or 14.2%. From January to October, the cumulative exports were 4.1408 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1,600 tons or 0.04%. In October, China's stainless - steel apparent consumption was 3.0459 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons or 4.68% [1] - Chinalco Group: The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was successfully sent, carrying 200,000 tons of iron ore [1] - On December 3rd, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,320 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The average profit was a loss of 29 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 79 yuan/ton [1] - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, in November, the national passenger car market retail sales were 2.263 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the new - energy market retail sales were 1.354 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the new - energy market retail penetration rate was 59.8% [1] Market Logic - In the macro - policy vacuum period, there may be expectations later. Fundamentally, last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak [1] Trading Strategy - The upward movement of the futures price is weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations. The main contract has been rolled over to the May contract. The resistance level of the rebar 2605 contract is 3,200, and the strong support level is around 3,050. It is not recommended to chase long for now [1]

Macro and Strategy Research - The US economy in 2026 may be more fragile than it appears, with growth driven mainly by AI-related investments and high-income consumer spending, while other contributions remain minimal [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates due to concerns about the labor market, but the space for cuts is limited, aiming slightly below the nominal neutral rate [3] - In Europe, external risks are skewed to the downside, with challenges arising from the recovery of internal economic momentum, while defense spending supported by fiscal measures may revitalize investment in the Eurozone [3] Domestic Policy Environment - The "14th Five-Year Plan" framework will be adjusted to focus on solidifying development foundations while promoting a unified national market and expanding autonomous openness [4] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a more proactive stance, with an emphasis on early deployment and investment in human capital [4] - Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative but with a focus on credit quality and more precise liquidity management [4] Domestic Economic Environment - China's economic growth in 2026 is projected to remain around 5%, with investment stabilizing first while consumption requires systematic policy support [5] - Industrial value-added growth is expected to remain stable due to good external demand, while the ability of high-tech industries to break through will be crucial for improving operational efficiency [5] - Inflation is anticipated to rebound slightly, with a key focus on whether PPI growth can significantly recover [5] Fund Research - In November, the market saw a decline, with the average drop for equity funds being 2.43%, while the mini funds (500 million to 1 billion) had the smallest average drop of 2.26% [9] - The number of new individual investor accounts decreased significantly after several months of growth, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [8] - The private equity market continued to recover, with the total scale reaching a three-year high of 22.05 trillion yuan [8] Financial Engineering Research - The A-share market experienced a broad adjustment in November, with the ChiNext index dropping 4.23% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.67% [12] - The margin trading balance decreased slightly to 24,660.50 billion yuan, with a notable drop in the number of investors participating in margin trading [13] Industry Research: Metals - The steel industry may see weakened demand in December due to weather factors, leading to reduced production and fluctuating prices [15] - Copper prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and low domestic inventory, supported by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [15] - The aluminum sector is anticipated to experience stable profits due to low alumina prices, despite a potential decline in downstream demand [15] Industry Research: Pharmaceuticals - The National Healthcare Security Administration is conducting negotiations for the 2025 National Basic Medical Insurance Drug List, which may impact pharmaceutical companies [20] - The medical manufacturing industry is facing pressure, with cumulative revenue declining by 2.9% year-on-year [21] - The upcoming release of the new basic medical insurance drug list and the first commercial insurance innovative drug list is expected to create investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector [22]