招商证券发布研报称，印尼矿业官员周二表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货 煤炭出口。该行认为此次供给扰动对动力煤影响大于焦煤。主因资源禀赋方面印尼煤炭多以露天开采低 卡煤为主。建议关注受益于现货煤占比较高和海外业务占比较高的兖矿能源(600188.SH)，和稳健经营 标的如中煤能源(601898.SH)、陕西煤业(601225.SH)等。 2.本次供给扰动之下，国内动力煤现货价格有望反弹 根据印尼统计局数据，2025年印尼煤炭出口量5.3亿吨，占全年产量比例67%。出口结构中，中国占比 最高40%，达到2.1亿吨。 全年维度，不同假设下，中国进口印尼煤炭或下滑2411-5089万吨。 情景一：假设2026年印尼煤炭产量与能矿部指引一致，即6亿吨;产量出口比例和出口结构中国占比和 2025年一致;则2026年印尼出口中国煤炭或达到1.61亿吨，同比下降5089万吨。 情景二：假设2026年中RKAB额度有所提升，印尼煤炭产量达到7亿吨;产量出口比例和出口结构中国占 比和2025年一致;则2026年印尼出口中国煤炭或达到1.87亿吨，同比下降2411万吨。 短期维度，本次供给扰动有望推动国内动力 ...

Group 1 - Indonesia's export policy adjustment significantly reduces production quotas, reflecting a shift in the government's strategy for resource exports, including nickel and coal, aimed at controlling supply and increasing prices [1][2] - In February 2026, Indonesian mining officials announced a substantial reduction in coal production quotas by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, as part of a plan to boost coal prices [2] - Indonesia's coal production for 2025 is projected at 790 million tons, a 5% year-on-year decrease, with potential further reductions to 600 million tons in 2026, representing a 24% decline from 2025 [2] Group 2 - Global coal supply-demand balance may begin to shift in 2026, with supply contraction and rising demand, indicating a potential upward price cycle for coal [3] - Indonesia is expected to export 524 million tons of coal in 2025, a 6.1% decrease, and if production is limited to 600 million tons in 2026, exports could drop to 450 million tons, impacting global shipping trade [3] - Other countries, including Australia and Russia, are also facing production declines, contributing to a tightening global coal market [3] Group 3 - China's coal imports from Indonesia are projected to decline further in 2026, with an expected total of around 45 million tons, a decrease of approximately 4 million tons [4] - In 2025, Indonesia is expected to export 21 million tons of coal to China, a 10.6% year-on-year decrease, accounting for 42.9% of China's total coal imports [4] - Domestic coal prices in China are anticipated to recover in 2026, ending a four-year decline, supported by stable domestic supply and slightly reduced overseas imports [4] Group 4 - Companies with a clear outlook for volume and price elasticity over the next five years are recommended for investment, including Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225), China Coal Energy (601898), Jincheng Anthracite Mining (601001), and China Shenhua Energy (601088) [5] - Yancoal Australia (03668) is also recommended for investment in the Hong Kong market [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the coal industry, indicating that the overall credit quality of the industry is not expected to change significantly in the next 12 to 18 months [6]. Core Insights - Coal demand growth has significantly slowed, but it remains a cornerstone for energy security. The domestic coal production is expected to continue rising due to the release of previously constructed capacities, while coal imports are projected to decline [6][7]. - The coal price is anticipated to exhibit a "high first, low later, and then rebound" V-shaped trend throughout the year, with a stable price center expected [6][28]. - The financial performance of coal enterprises is under pressure due to rising debt levels, but their operational cash flow and refinancing capabilities remain relatively strong [6][35]. Summary by Sections Key Focus Areas - Since 2025, national coal consumption has been weak, primarily supported by the power sector. However, the continuous push for clean energy has negatively impacted thermal power demand, leading to a decline in both thermal power generation and coal consumption [7][9]. - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a downturn, further weakening coal demand in the building materials industry [7][15]. - The chemical industry has seen a slight increase in coal demand due to new coal chemical projects, but the overall consumption scale remains relatively small [7][16]. Industry Fundamentals - The coal consumption growth rate has continued to slow, with total coal consumption in China for January to November 2025 at 4.69 billion tons, unchanged from the previous year [9]. - The power sector remains the largest consumer of coal, accounting for over 50% of total coal consumption. However, traditional thermal power is facing significant pressure from clean energy sources [11][12]. - The steel industry, as the second-largest consumer of coal, has also seen a decline in coal consumption due to reduced demand from downstream sectors [14]. Financial Performance - The profitability of coal enterprises is closely tied to coal prices, which have been declining. In the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit of sample enterprises dropped by 25.65% year-on-year to 135.93 billion yuan [36]. - The average operating profit margin for sample enterprises decreased by 3.22 percentage points to 19.09% due to falling coal prices [36]. - The financial health of coal enterprises is under pressure, but the overall debt structure has improved, and the refinancing environment remains favorable [6][35]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The coal supply is expected to grow at a slower pace, with domestic production and imports both facing constraints. The overall supply-demand balance is under structural pressure, which will support the price center in the medium to long term [27][33]. - The introduction of a floating pricing mechanism for long-term contracts is expected to enhance contract compliance and stabilize market price fluctuations [28]. Price Trends - The coal price has shown a V-shaped trend, with a significant drop followed by a rebound. The average price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5000) fell by 12 yuan/ton by the end of December compared to the beginning of the year [29][30]. - The pricing mechanism for coking coal varies by region, with long-term contracts generally exhibiting less volatility compared to market pricing [31]. Inventory Levels - Coal inventories remain high due to a continuous supply surplus, with total coal inventories exceeding 350 million tons [25][26]. - The high inventory levels are expected to exert downward pressure on thermal coal prices in the short term [25].

中期不确定性较大，印尼煤炭产量通常高于年初计划 （1）印尼上一次申报RKAB是在2022年末至2023年初，但紧随其后，印尼允许企业在2023年7月31日之 前提交一次RKAB变更；（2）2023年下半年，RKAB有效期从一年变为三年，并在2025年下半年变回 一年，当前正处于2026年RKAB的获批期，部分观点认为后续仍有较大可能会出现变化；（3）2016年 以来，印尼煤炭实际产量多数年份显著高于RKAB配额或政府目标。 长期对煤价抬升有利，印尼政府对提煤价有较强诉求 东方证券主要观点如下： 事件 印尼矿商暂停现货煤炭出口。据媒体报道，印尼矿业官员周二表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减产计划， 该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。印尼上月向主要矿商下达的产量配额比2025年水平降低40%至70%，作 为该国提振煤价计划的一部分。印尼主要行业协会反对此举，警告称可能引发裁员和矿山关闭。 预计对一季度煤价及预期产生明显提振 （1）对上游，由于印尼政府调低了产量配额，矿商在无法判断未来可出口配额的情况下，只能自发采 取先暂停现货合约的方式应对的防御性策略，等待政策确定后再恢复现货报价；（2）对中下游，在此 前对煤价的一致预期不 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159266) experienced a net redemption of 1.0161 million yuan on February 4, ranking 37th out of 212 in cross-border ETF net outflows [1] - As of February 4, the latest scale of the ETF is 569 million yuan, with a previous day's scale of 562 million yuan, indicating a net outflow of 0.18% compared to the previous day's scale [1] - Over the past 5 days, the ETF faced a net redemption of 5.0294 million yuan, ranking 49th out of 212 in cross-border ETF net outflows [1] Group 2 - The ETF's latest share count is 556 million shares, down 9.74% from 616 million shares at the end of December 31, 2025, and its scale decreased by 6.86% from 611 million yuan [2] - The cumulative trading amount over the last 20 trading days is 254 million yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 12.718 million yuan [2] - The current fund managers are Liu Tingyu and Cai Leping, with Liu managing since July 23, 2025, achieving a return of 2.43%, while Cai has been managing since November 5, 2025, with a return of -0.39% [2] Group 3 - The ETF's top holdings include COSCO Shipping Holdings, China Shenhua Energy, CNOOC, Sinopec Engineering, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and others, with respective holding percentages and market values detailed [2] - Other ETFs tracking the same index include Huaxia Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF, Wanji Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF, and Tianhong Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF, with their respective scales and liquidity metrics provided [2]

Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the coal industry, particularly the impact of Indonesia's coal export policy adjustments on global and Chinese coal markets [1][3][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Indonesia's Export Policy Changes**: Indonesia has significantly reduced its coal production quota for 2026, leading to an expected decrease in export volume by 90 million tons, primarily affecting the spot market while long-term contracts remain largely unaffected [1][4]. - **Impact on Small vs. Large Miners**: Smaller miners will face greater production pressure due to the new quotas, while large coal companies are less affected due to their long-term contracts [1][5]. - **Price Projections**: The anticipated supply contraction in the global thermal coal market, combined with improving demand, is expected to drive prices up. If Indonesia strictly enforces its export limits, coal prices could rise to 800 RMB/ton [1][9]. - **Profitability of Major Companies**: Companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿) are projected to achieve significant profits, with estimates of 12 billion RMB in main business profits at a price of 750 RMB/ton, potentially reaching 16 billion RMB if prices rise to 800 RMB/ton [1][10]. - **China's Market Reaction**: A reduction of 40 million tons in Indonesian exports could lead to a price increase of approximately 100 RMB/ton in China, indicating a 15% upside potential from current prices [2][12]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with high market share and growth potential, such as Yanzhou, China Coal Energy, and Shenhua, while also considering companies that are sensitive to price changes [2][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Market Dynamics**: The overall trend indicates a tightening supply situation, which is expected to support higher prices in the coal market [8][9]. - **Government Revenue Considerations**: Indonesia's government aims to increase fiscal revenue through these export restrictions, and future policy adjustments will depend on the acceptance of price increases by downstream demand [7][8]. - **Potential for Future Adjustments**: The likelihood of policy changes post-Ramadan remains uncertain, with expectations that coal prices may strengthen in the first quarter [6][8]. - **Valuation Considerations**: Current valuations for companies like Yanzhou suggest significant investment potential, with projected earnings growth and a commitment to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of at least 60% [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the coal industry's future, particularly in light of Indonesia's export policies and their implications for market dynamics and investment strategies.

近期煤炭板块的大幅上涨主要是由于印尼煤炭配额政策的变化。印尼政府决定 大幅下调煤炭出口配额，从 2025 年的 7.31 亿吨配额和 7.91 亿吨实际产量， 降至 6 亿吨左右。这一变化引发了市场对煤炭供应紧缺的担忧，特别是对于依 赖印尼低卡煤的南方电厂而言，这种预期导致了市场反应剧烈。 为什么印尼政府要限制资源品的配额？ 印尼政府限制资源品配额的原因主要有两个方面。首先，当前 3,800 大卡 M42 煤种 FOB 价格约为 47 美元，而矿山成本在 40-45 美元之间，价格接近成本上 限。为了增加财政收入，印尼计划征收 5-8%的出口税。但在当前价格水平下， 再加上出口税，许多矿山将无利可图，从而可能选择停产。其次，通过减少配 其他主要供应国如澳大利亚受飓风影响，美国因国内用电需求增加而减 少出口，以及俄罗斯高成本等因素，难以弥补印尼煤炭出口减少造成的 缺口，预计四五月份煤价可能上涨。 建议投资者关注煤炭板块的投资机会，推荐配置海外业务布局较多的兖 矿能源，以及优质焦煤动力煤公司如中煤、陕煤等，同时关注镍品种的 后续配置机会。 煤与镍：印尼减少配额的逻辑与进展 20260204 摘要 印尼煤炭配额大幅 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：2月4日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | ...

Group 1 - The stock market style may be changing, with a notable adjustment in US tech stocks, including Oracle's price dropping nearly 60% from its peak and SNDK experiencing a significant decline [1] - A-shares may see a shift in style, with banks and dividend stocks potentially outperforming, leading to a focus on quality banks such as Jiangsu Bank, Nanjing Bank, Hangzhou Bank, Ningbo Bank, and China Merchants Bank for potential gains [1] - As of February 4, 2026, the Shanghai 180 Index (000010) rose by 1.01%, with component stocks like JinkoSolar up 20.00%, Yanzhou Coal Mining up 10.01%, and China Shenhua Energy also seeing gains [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai 180 ETF index fund (530280) has seen a net value increase of 14.84% over the past six months, with a maximum monthly return of 9.13% since inception [2] - The fund has a historical average monthly return of 3.08% and a 100% probability of profitability over one year, with a Sharpe ratio of 2.08 as of January 30, 2026 [2] - The fund's maximum drawdown this year is 4.28%, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [2] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the Shanghai 180 Index include Zijin Mining, Kweichow Moutai, China Ping An, and others, collectively accounting for 24.85% of the index [3] - The individual weightings of these stocks vary, with Kweichow Moutai at 4.22% and China Ping An at 2.87% [4]

公司与产经 07 |煤炭产业:基本面持续改善,价格中枢上移 有色市场 · 结构分化,波动加 煤炭产业：基本面持续改善，价格中枢上移 截至2月4日收盘，万得央企煤炭概念指数、万得煤炭开采精选指数涨幅分别达到7.61%和7.58%，中煤 能源、恒源煤电、充矿能源、山西焦煤、潞安环能、山煤国际、晋控煤业等一批个股涨停。煤炭企业人 士、研究员认为，短期内煤价或受印尼矿商暂停现货煤炭出口等消息的扰动。从中长期来看，煤炭供需 基本面有望持续改善，年度价格中枢有望上移。 2月3日，国家高端智库中国石油集团经济技术研究院发布最新预测：2026年，全球石油市场将在"供需 过剩现实"与"地缘冲突风险"之间动态博弈，布伦特油价中枢或维持在每桶60美元至 65美元；全球天然 气市场整体表现为需求增速回升、供应增量高于需求。 有色市场：结构分化，波动加剧 在2月3日中国有色金属工业协会举办的2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上，协会相关负责 人表示，2025年全球主要有色金属价格整体呈现显著上行态势，我国规上有色金属工业企业利润总额创 历史新高。展望2026年，有色金属市场或有结构性分化，波动程度加剧，价格中枢或仍有上行潜力 ...