专题：2025基金四季报前瞻：AI应用、商业航天、核聚变，谁领2026投资主线？ 公募基金2025年四季报披露工作已启动，市场迎来新一轮的持仓观察窗口。在目前已披露季报的70余只 主动权益类基金中，中欧数字经济混合成为少数率先亮相的百亿基金，该产品由冯炉丹担任基金经理。 从业绩表现看，该基金2025年第四季度回报率为0.92%，年内回报为5.39%，而2025年全年回报达到 143.07%。截至2026年1月16日，基金单位净值为3.2438元，近一年回报率为159.42%，近六个月回报率 为72.84%。从阶段表现来看，该基金在近一年、近六个月等中长期维度上表现较为突出，但在今年以 来及去年四季度表现相对平缓。 数据来源：Wind 截止 至20260116 在四季报中，冯炉丹重点回应了市场对人工智能产业"泡沫化"的担忧。她认为，"泡沫"是一个中性概 念，是几乎所有颠覆性技术在高速发展阶段不可避免的现象。关键问题并不在于是否存在泡沫，而在于 技术进步的速度是否足以持续打开新的应用边界，以及商业化进展是否能够逐步吸纳新增资本并转化为 真实收入与利润。 从四季度投资操作与持仓调整来看，该基金持续聚焦五大核心投资方 ...

Core Insights - The latest public fund report for Q4 2025 indicates that top-performing fund managers are increasingly aligning their portfolios with the AI-related industry chain, optimizing their holdings within AI sectors [1] Group 1: Fund Performance and Holdings - The Rongtong Industry Trend Selected Stock Fund achieved over 100% returns in 2025, with new top holdings including Yuanjie Technology, Zijin Mining, Kangfang Biotech, and Cambridge Technology by the end of 2025 [1] - In the top ten holdings of the China Europe Digital Economy Mixed Fund, new significant stocks include Shennan Circuit, Sungrow Power, Inspur Information, and Dongshan Precision, which were added in Q4 2025 [1] Group 2: AI Sector Adjustments - Fund managers are shifting focus towards AI power solutions, with Ping An Dingyue Mixed Fund manager Lin Qingyuan highlighting that energy will be the biggest bottleneck for AI expansion in the coming years due to the exponential growth in data center energy consumption [1] - There is an emphasis on the strategic value of gas turbines for peak shaving and stable power supply, along with opportunities for exporting grid equipment such as transformers [1] - Attention is also directed towards specific AI applications, with Rongtong's fund manager Li Jin noting that autonomous driving is expected to reach a critical development point within 1-2 years after accumulating sufficient large-scale video training data [1] - The robotics industry is anticipated to grow significantly due to the low-cost and high-efficiency iterations within China's supply chain, with expectations for breakthroughs in the near future [1]

Market Updates - The State Council held a meeting on January 16 to discuss measures to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption and ensure the payment of wages to migrant workers [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission outlined five key tasks for 2026, focusing on market stability, reform, legal enforcement, company value growth, and capital market openness [2] - The People's Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration announced a minimum down payment ratio of 30% for commercial housing loans [2] Company News - Yubis Technology signed a service agreement with Airbus for humanoid robots, with production capacity expected to reach 10,000 units by 2026 [10] - Lanke Technology expects a net profit of 2.15 billion to 2.35 billion yuan for 2025, a growth of 52.29% to 66.46% year-on-year, driven by strong demand in the AI industry [10] - Changxin Bochuang anticipates a net profit of 320 million to 370 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 344.01% to 413.39% due to the rapid growth in data communication market [10] - Oke Yi expects a net profit of 96 million to 110 million yuan for 2025, a growth of 67.53% to 91.96% year-on-year, benefiting from rising prices of raw materials [10] - Haitai Technology forecasts a net profit of 51.5 million to 66.8 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 226.86% to 323.97% due to high industry demand [10] - Energy-saving Wind Power announced that its wind power projects received renewable energy subsidies of 1.507 billion yuan, a 122.74% increase year-on-year [12] Industry Insights - The nuclear fusion energy market is expanding, with significant procurement projects signed at the 2026 Nuclear Fusion Technology and Industry Conference, with total funding expected to exceed 10 billion yuan [7] - China's total electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5%, driven by the service sector and residential electricity use [8] - The electric vehicle charging service industry is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected increase in charging infrastructure to 28 million units by 2027 [8] Investment Opportunities - The A-share market is expected to focus on companies with solid fundamentals as earnings reports are set to be disclosed in late January [4][5] - Investment firms are advised to pay attention to sectors such as technology, chemicals, and healthcare, particularly those with high growth or turnaround potential [5] - The semiconductor equipment sector is gaining attention, with ASML's stock reaching a new high, driven by increased spending from chip manufacturers to meet AI demand [6]

随着四季报陆续披露，多只重仓人工智能板块而实现业绩领跑的基金也曝光了当季的操作轨迹。 从已披露的数据来看，基金经理对这一主线的后市既有共识也有分歧，一部分涨幅可观的算力个股依旧 获相关基金重仓持有，由算力需求所衍生的多只高景气概念股则受到了挖掘。 经过一年多的上涨，相关板块的短期估值已处高位。有基金经理认为，人工智能产业正处于泡沫初现并 逐步形成的阶段，而非泡沫末期。当下，投资机遇与风险并存，需持续跟踪技术迭代节奏、商业模式验 证和企业盈利能力变化。 共识中不乏分歧 主管前海开源沪港深乐享生活的两位基金经理则认为，2026年，随着ASIC机柜的放量以及英伟达采购 形式的潜在变化，大陆的液冷厂商有希望在全球AI基础设施市场持续扩张份额，这一市场有望为投资 者创造超额回报。 其次，是算力猛增带动的电力需求。德邦基金基金经理袁之渿认为，由于AI数据中心建设速度远快于 传统电网扩容速度，电网建设无法跟上算力扩张，供需错配催生了这场潜在的能源危机。他表示，未来 几年海外企业订单充沛，国内企业有望出海享受行业红利，而新技术的开发有望催生"终极解决方案"， 行业兼具确定性和弹性，是值得中长期重点关注并投资布局的新兴赛道。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market is experiencing a surge in new listings, particularly in the semiconductor and biopharmaceutical sectors, with expectations for continued strong performance in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Trends in the IPO Market - In January 2026, 12 new stocks have been listed on the Hong Kong market, including several semiconductor companies and biopharmaceutical firms, indicating a trend of concentrated listings in these sectors [1]. - The 2025 Hong Kong market saw 117 new stocks listed, raising a total of 285.99 billion HKD, surpassing the expected fundraising amount of 23.31 billion HKD, with an average oversubscription of approximately 200 million HKD per stock [1]. - A significant portion of the fundraising in 2025 was dominated by A+H shares, with eight companies alone accounting for 49.82% of the total IPO fundraising [1]. Group 2: Specific Sector Insights - The surge in semiconductor and AI-related companies is attributed to their high capital expenditures and R&D costs, necessitating financing from the capital markets [2]. - The Hong Kong IPO rules, particularly the 18C and 18A regulations, are tailored to accommodate technology and biopharmaceutical companies, with at least 31 companies aiming to list under the 18A rules and 16 under the 18C rules [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The trend of A+H shares is expected to continue but with a reduced proportion compared to 2025, as the concentration of fundraising is anticipated to decrease [2]. - Some H shares are expected to return to A shares as the A-share listing process normalizes and reforms are implemented [3]. - The influx of international capital into the Hong Kong IPO market is driven by a broader search for diversification beyond US dollar assets, with over half of the cornerstone investors in 2025 being international [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on companies like TSMC and others involved in AI and advanced manufacturing processes [6][30]. Core Insights - TSMC's FY25Q4 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong demand for advanced processes, with revenue reaching $33.73 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase [10][11]. - The company anticipates continued robust growth in AI demand, with a projected CAGR of mid-to-high 50% for AI accelerator business from 2024 to 2029 [16][20]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is expected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, primarily for advanced process capacity expansion [2][20]. Summary by Sections TSMC Performance - TSMC's Q4 FY25 revenue was $33.73 billion, with a gross margin of 62.3% and a net profit margin of 48.3% [10][11]. - The company expects Q1 FY26 revenue to be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin of 63%-65% [10][12]. AI Demand and Market Trends - AI demand is identified as a significant growth driver, with high-performance computing (HPC) accounting for 55% of TSMC's revenue in Q4 FY25 [13][16]. - The report highlights a healthy and genuine demand for AI, with expectations for continued growth in advanced processes and AI-related applications [2][20]. Capital Expenditure and Capacity Expansion - TSMC plans to allocate 70%-80% of its 2026 capital expenditure to advanced process expansion, with careful assessment of customer needs [2][20]. - The company is expanding its manufacturing capacity in the U.S., Japan, and Taiwan to meet long-term trends in AI and HPC [17][20]. Technology Roadmap - TSMC's N2 process has entered mass production, with expectations for rapid ramp-up in 2026, alongside the introduction of N2P and A16 processes [18][20]. - The N2 family is anticipated to become a key platform with a long lifecycle, reinforcing TSMC's leadership in advanced process technology [18][20].

Group 1 - The printed circuit board sector experienced a short-term surge, with Kexiang Co., Ltd. rising over 10% [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Huadian Co., Nanya New Material, Pengding Holdings, Dongshan Precision, and Shengyi Electronics, also saw increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dongshan Precision's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent increase of 2.02% on January 16, 2023, while the company has experienced a year-to-date decline of 4.34% [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 16, 2023, Dongshan Precision's stock price reached 80.98 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 12.22 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 148.32 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has decreased by 4.34% since the beginning of the year, with a slight decline of 0.59% over the last five trading days and 0.53% over the last twenty days, while it has increased by 18.00% over the last sixty days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Dongshan Precision reported a revenue of 27.071 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.223 billion CNY, which is a 14.61% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.544 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 731 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of January 9, 2023, the number of shareholders for Dongshan Precision reached 101,400, an increase of 24.12% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 19.43% to 13,675 shares [2]. - The largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 68.7123 million shares, an increase of 5.2492 million shares from the previous period [3].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on January 15, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly falling below 4100 points before recovering at the close. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.41%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 29.388 billion yuan, significantly down by over 10 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance Electronics Sector - The electronics sector saw a strong rally in the afternoon, with the electronic ETF (515260) rising by 1.88%, recovering its 5-day moving average. The sector attracted a net inflow of 16.862 billion yuan from institutional investors, leading all 31 primary industries [3][6] - Key stocks in the electronics sector included Unigroup Guowei, which hit a daily limit up of 10%, and Huazhong Microelectronics, which rose by 7.58% [4][5] Chemical Sector - The chemical sector also performed well, with the chemical ETF (516020) reaching a peak increase of 2.42% during the day and closing up by 1.43%, marking a new three-year high. The sector attracted 14.7 billion yuan in net inflows, leading the market [9][11] - Notable stocks included Tongcheng New Materials, which hit the daily limit up, and Hongda Co., which surged by 6.25% [9][13] AI and Robotics Sector - The AI and robotics sectors faced some challenges, with the general aviation ETF (159231) dropping by 3.56%. However, the ChiNext AI ETF (159363) and the Sci-Tech AI ETF (589520) also saw declines, indicating a mixed performance in this area [1][15] Investment Insights - Analysts from Huajin Securities believe that the recent adjustment of financing margin ratios will have a limited impact on A-share trends, as the market is currently in a slow bull phase supported by structural recovery in profits and low credit levels [2] - The electronics sector is expected to benefit from the U.S. government's recent imposition of tariffs on certain semiconductors, which may enhance domestic substitution sentiment [6] - The chemical industry is anticipated to experience a rebound in profitability as supply-demand dynamics stabilize, with AI-driven production capabilities expected to lead to new growth opportunities [13][14]

Group 1 - The company is an innovative new materials firm positioned upstream in the industry, primarily focusing on products used in FPC (Flexible Printed Circuit) manufacturing [1] - Major clients include well-known enterprises such as Pengding Holdings, Weixin Electronics (Dongshan Precision), Jingwang Electronics, and Zixiang Electronics, indicating a strong market presence [1] - The company has gained significant shareholders like BYD, Pengding Holdings, and Jingwang Electronics due to its competitive advantages in the niche of FPC manufacturing materials over the past 20 years [1] Group 2 - The company emphasizes its unique characteristics in material research, technical development, and manufacturing, which allow it to provide quality products and services to a broader range of industry clients [1] - There is a focus on collaborative development with clients to create value, while also learning from their advanced management practices for sustainable growth [1] - The company has shown a positive trend in key operational metrics such as revenue, profit, and cash flow, with management expressing confidence in future growth [1]