文|天峰 来源|财富独角兽 2025年至今，沪深股指持续上涨，主要源于政策支持、产业转型、资金面改善与市场信心修复等多重因素共振。人工智能、半导体、新能源等高景气赛道 轮番表现，反映出市场对"新质生产力"的高度认可。资金结构也发生深刻变化，外资回流加速，北向资金单月净买入创历史新高。 沪深股指大幅上涨，公募基金加仓高端制造与数字经济，尤其是权益类基金业绩因此受益。陶灿作为建信基金权益投资部总经理，深耕行业十余年，其管 理的基金以长期稳健著称。核心策略是"3+3"框架：自上而下优选行业，聚焦商业模式、竞争格局与景气趋势；自下而上精选个股，考察企业家格局、管 理层执行力与研发效率。 这种双维度方法显著提升了组合的抗风险能力。例如，在新能源行业波动中，陶灿通过动态调仓，规避产能过剩风险，同时锁定高成长赛道，使基金在行 业轮动中保持超额收益。其代表产品建信改革红利股票基金，凭借均衡配置和严格止盈止损机制，长期跑赢基准，成为同类产品中的标杆。 01 陶灿旗下基金收益率高达473.70% 精准把握改革红利宏观策略布局 据天天基金网显示，陶灿于2007年7月加入建信基金管理公司,历任研究员、基金经理助理、基金经理、资深基金 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese optical transceiver market and its relation to the US Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) capital expenditure (capex) trends, particularly in optical technologies [1][2]. Core Insights - **US CSP Capex Growth**: The top four US CSPs are expected to see significant growth in their 2026 capex, with Meta projecting US$115-135 billion (70%+ YoY growth), Microsoft showing sequential growth, Amazon estimating around US$200 billion (+55% YoY), and Google forecasting US$175-185 billion [2]. - **Optical Transceiver Demand**: There is a strong anticipated growth in the demand for 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers, with 1.6T expected to grow more rapidly than 800G in 2026 [3]. - **OCS Market Potential**: The Optical Circuit Switch (OCS) market is projected to exceed US$2 billion by 2030, with increasing applications in scale-out and scale-up networks [4]. - **CPO Deployment**: Coherent and Lumentum are actively engaging in the deployment of Coherent Passive Optical (CPO) technologies, with initial deployments expected in scale-out networks, transitioning to scale-up by late 2027 [8]. - **NPO Development**: The Non-Pluggable Optical (NPO) solutions are gaining traction, with CSPs showing interest due to their lower costs and better yields compared to CPO [9]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - **Demand Visibility for 2027**: There is optimism regarding demand for optical technologies into 2027, with customers likely to secure capacity earlier due to significant needs [5]. - **Potential Risks**: The market reacted negatively to the potential for earlier-than-expected CPO scale-up and high earnings expectations among optics companies, but sentiment may improve with better visibility towards 2027 demand [1]. Investment Preferences - **Preferred Companies**: The report suggests a preference for TFC Optical over Eoptolink, indicating a strategic investment focus based on the anticipated growth in optical technologies [1]. Risks to Consider - **Downside Risks**: Key risks that could impede stock performance include slower-than-expected data center investments, lower optical network capex in China, margin pressures from price competition, and geopolitical tensions such as China-US tech disputes [13][15]. Valuation Insights - **Target Prices**: - Eoptolink Technology is valued at Rmb472 based on a 24.0x FY26E P/E ratio, reflecting strong growth expectations in the optical market [12]. - Suzhou TFC Optical Communication has a target price of Rmb222/share, based on a 30.0x FY26E P/E, factoring in the strength of 1.6T and new customer contributions [14]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the growth potential in the optical transceiver market, the significant capex from US CSPs, and the associated risks and investment preferences.

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference primarily focused on the AI computing power industry, highlighting significant developments and investment trends in major tech companies such as Oracle, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. Key Points and Arguments 1. Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - Recent performance in the computing power sector has shown a recovery after a period of pessimism regarding expectations. The market is believed to have entered a new cycle of growth, particularly following Oracle's successful financing of $25 billion, which had a subscription amount of $129 billion, indicating strong investor confidence in computing power [2][3][4]. 2. Demand for Computing Power - Major tech companies are significantly investing in AI-related computing power, with Google planning to invest $180 billion and Amazon $200 billion in capital expenditures (CAPEX) for AI initiatives. This reflects a strong belief in the demand for computing power, despite concerns about cash flow issues in some companies [3][4][5][9]. 3. Cash Flow Concerns - Oracle faced negative free cash flow issues in Q3 of the previous year, raising concerns about its ability to finance future investments. However, it is noted that other major players like Meta and Microsoft may encounter similar cash flow challenges in 2027, but the overall sentiment remains optimistic regarding funding availability for AI investments [3][4][5]. 4. Investment Opportunities - The conference highlighted several companies with strong potential in the computing power sector, including domestic firms like Xuchuang and Xinyi, and international companies like Light and SanDisk. The focus is on companies with solid structures and growth potential in the AI computing landscape [6][7]. 5. AI Hardware Demand - The demand for AI hardware is expected to grow significantly, with Amazon's capital expenditure for 2026 projected to exceed $200 billion, a 50% increase from 2025. This growth is driven by strong demand signals from enterprise clients and the ongoing expansion of AWS [9][10]. 6. Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply of computing power remains tight, with Amazon indicating that its current capacity is fully booked. The company is transitioning to its new Trinim 3 chip, which is expected to enhance performance by 40% compared to its predecessor [10][11]. 7. Future Trends in Power Supply - The conference discussed the shift towards integrated power supply modules in GPU designs, which are expected to become the industry standard by 2027. This transition is driven by the need for higher efficiency in power delivery as GPU power requirements increase [17][18][19]. 8. Gas Turbine Market Insights - The gas turbine market is experiencing high order growth, with Mitsubishi reporting a 67% increase in new orders. However, delivery rates are lagging due to a shortage of critical components like turbine blades, which are primarily supplied by a few specialized companies [22][23][24]. 9. PCB Market Dynamics - The conference also touched on the PCB market, noting that the transition to integrated power supply modules will increase the demand for higher-quality PCBs, which are essential for the new designs. Companies like Delta and MPS are expected to benefit from this trend [19][20][21]. 10. Recommendations - Analysts recommended focusing on companies like Shengyi Technology and New Yuan Co., which are well-positioned in the AI hardware and PCB markets. The overall sentiment is bullish on the growth potential of these sectors as demand for AI computing power continues to rise [15][16]. Additional Important Content - The discussions included insights into the competitive landscape of the AI hardware market, emphasizing the importance of cash flow management and strategic investments in technology to meet the growing demand for AI applications [12][13][14]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the AI computing power industry.

分析师 2: 尊敬的各各位同仁，大家早上好。也是很抱歉在周一的早上打扰大家来听我们的电话会。 我也看到了有大几十位的投资人已经在线了。周末的其实威尔的 CPU 的讨论，并不是我 们特别想看到的，一方面大量的信息源是来自于这个就是专家专家口径。另一方面，很多 的讨论已经到了就是大家对 CPU 预测动机这个层面上去，相关的信息网上都能看到，我 们不涉及这个部分。但是在今天早上，也就是在春节前的最后一个交易日，我们出来讨论 这个问题。其实也是沿着我个人还有我们团队一贯的风格，我们正本清源地去讨论我们现 在已经看到的，基于公开信息。 去怎么看待 CPU，光模块的这些关系。我们也是希望包括我们的策略，我们也是希望能够 帮助我们的客户，在面对 CPU 产业缺失的时候，继续能把，在把握下一轮的光通信的投 资上，有更清晰的思路和逻辑。我们在 2026 年的年度策略报告里的，针对光的这个部分， 我们提出了三个层次的思考。分别叫做业绩核心、关键增量和估值变量。在这个关键，在 这个业绩核心里，我们提出了围绕着归工的 1.6T，中国的光芯片行业，包括龙头的光模块 公司正在努力的向上游攀升。 这样的话，未来的三年，我们有希望看到中国的 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.41% to close at 4123.09 points, with a daily high of 4123.16 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.17% to close at 14208.44 points, reaching a high of 14211.7 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 2.98%, closing at 3332.77 points, with a peak of 3340.33 points [1] Margin Trading and Securities Lending - The total margin trading and securities lending balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 26,556.13 billion yuan, with a financing balance of 26,387.82 billion yuan and a securities lending balance of 168.31 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 6.15 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - The Shanghai market's margin trading balance was 13,475.12 billion yuan, up by 4.76 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market's balance was 13,081.01 billion yuan, increasing by 1.39 billion yuan [2] - A total of 3,480 stocks had financing funds for purchase, with the top three being Xinyi Technology (25.36 billion yuan), Zhongji Xuchuang (24.32 billion yuan), and Shenghong Technology (17.14 billion yuan) [2][3] Fund Issuance - Eight new funds were issued yesterday, including: - Shangyin Stable and Wise Three-Month Holding (FOF) C - Xinyuan CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index C - Xinyuan CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index A - Shangyin Stable and Wise Three-Month Holding (FOF) A - CITIC Construction Investment Shuangyi Three-Month Holding Period Bond A - Zhaoshang Yutian Mixed Initiation C - CITIC Construction Investment Shuangyi Three-Month Holding Period Bond C - Zhaoshang Yutian Mixed Initiation A [4][5] Top Net Purchases on the Dragon and Tiger List - The top ten net purchases on the Dragon and Tiger list were led by: - Zhongwen Online with a net purchase of 715.97 million yuan - TCL Zhonghuan with 517.15 million yuan - Zhongchao Holdings with 406.27 million yuan - Hunan Silver with 354.37 million yuan - Jiecheng Shares with 230.40 million yuan [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the active performance of optical fiber and CPO-related hardware stocks, with significant trading volume and price increases observed in the communication ETF (515050) [1] - New Yi Sheng announced its capability for mass production and delivery of optical modules at 800G and above, including the successful production of the latest 1.6T optical module, with ongoing development for next-generation products [1] - CITIC Securities noted the acceleration of CPO development, with Lumentum reporting several hundred million dollars in CPO-related orders, projecting CPO revenue of approximately $50 million by Q4 2026 and a significant increase in H1 2027 [1] Group 2 - The communication ETF (515050) focuses on electronic and communication hardware, with top holdings including Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yi Sheng, and Lixun Precision [2] - The AI ETF (159381) has a balanced allocation between the optical module CPO sector and AI software applications, with major holdings such as Zhongji Xuchuang and New Yi Sheng [2] - The AI ETF features a low comprehensive fee rate of only 0.20%, making it competitive within its category [2]

Summary of Conference Call on CPO by Huatai Communication Industry Focus - The discussion centers around the **CPO (Co-Packaged Optics)** technology and its rising market interest, indicating a significant shift in investment focus towards this area [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Rising Market Attention**: - The market's attention on CPO has rapidly increased due to potential catalysts expected in the next 1-2 months, including GTC, OFC, and related US earnings reports. Additionally, the surge in Taiwanese stocks related to CPO has contributed to this heightened interest, alongside a shift in A-share market focus from quarterly performance to long-term growth potential [2][3]. 2. **Application Scenarios**: - CPO technology is expected to reduce power consumption and lower trial-and-error costs. Companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom are anticipated to lead the push for CPO in the "scale out" side, while the "scale up" side will leverage CPO's advantages in transmission distance and integration, potentially allowing for optical integration within cabinets, indicating a broad future growth space [4]. 3. **Mass Production Timeline and Clients**: - NVIDIA is projected to achieve mass production of CPO by Q4 2026, with bulk production starting in 2027. Clients likely to adopt these solutions first include those purchasing complete NV solutions, such as CoreWeave and Lambda in NeoCloud, as well as major CSPs like Microsoft and Oracle [5]. 4. **Investment Opportunities**: - CPO is expected to drive incremental demand for both active and passive components. The report highlights optimism for passive components like FAU/MPC, shuffle, and polarization-maintaining MPO, with companies such as Tianfu, Zhishang, Taichengguang, and Juguang being key players. For active components, leading optical module manufacturers like Xuchuang and Xinyi are expected to engage in optical engine design, while optical chip manufacturers like Yuanjie may enter the ultra-high power CW light source market [6]. Other Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the evolving landscape of CPO technology and its implications for various stakeholders in the optical communication industry. It also notes that the insights regarding companies not covered in the report are based on publicly available information [6].

： 管理层的积极态度与我们对硅光（SiPh）光模块的乐观看法相呼应： 正如我们在 1 月报告中所强调的，我们预计 2026/27E全球 AI 服务器出货量所隐含的 AI 芯片将同比增长 49%/31%，其中 ASIC 渗透率将提升至 40%/50%。 ： 正如我们在 1 月报告中所强调的，我们预计 800G 及以上光模块出货量将在 2026/27E同 管理层的积极态度与我们对硅光（SiPh）光模块的乐观看法相呼应： ： 正如我们在 1 月报告中所强调的，我们预计 2026/27E全球 AI 服务器出货量所隐含的 AI 芯片将同比增长 49%/31%，其中 ASIC 渗透率将提升至 40%/50%。 ： 正如我们在 1 月报告中所强调的，我们预计 800G 及以上光模块出货量将在 2026/27E同比增长 101%/53%，达到 5200 万 / 8000 万只，从而推动硅光（SiPh）渗透率提升。 ： 公司产品包括高速光收发器、无线与宽带接入、运营商以太网及边缘计算，助力下一代电信与数据中心网络 建设。 公司分支机构遍布美国、中国、日本、马来西亚及欧洲。 公司在光收发器领域的主要竞争对手包括 Innoligh ...

Summary of Conference Call on Silicon Photonics and CPO Industry Trends Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the trends in the Silicon Photonics (SiPh) and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) industries, particularly the advancements in CPO technology and its implications for the optical module market [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments CPO Technology Development - NVIDIA has updated its CPO switches to a 200G platform, indicating that the CPO replacement will not deepen at the 100G platform, with future penetration rates centered around 1.6T optical modules [1][2]. - By 2026, NVIDIA aims to promote CPO applications in scale-out scenarios, while scale-up replacements face higher barriers such as SerDes rates and CoWoS industry collaboration [1][2]. CPO's Impact on Optical Modules - Two high-power CW light sources can replace one 1.6T optical module. For instance, NVIDIA's Quantum switch, which has a capacity of 51.2T, originally required 72 1.6T optical modules but can now operate with only 144 CW light sources, resulting in a fourfold reduction in laser requirements [1][6]. Competitive Landscape - Lumentum and Coherent predict that pluggable optical modules will remain the main product from 2026 to 2027, covering rates of 1.6T and 3.2T. CPO's advantages will only manifest in specific scenarios, such as AI supercomputers with over 100,000 GPUs [2][3]. Optical Module Industry Fundamentals - Lumentum has initiated 6-inch wafer production for EML, quadrupling output and halving costs, which is expected to alleviate concerns regarding 1.6T optical module capacity by 2026 [2]. - Major tech companies like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta are projected to have capital expenditures of $260 billion in 2026, a 60% year-on-year increase, ensuring short-term demand for optical modules [2][11]. Investment Logic and Valuation - Leading companies like Xuchuang and Xinyi have not reached a strong consensus on profit forecasts related to 1.6T optical module deliveries, leading to attractive valuations. Signals of upstream EML capacity expansion are expected to shift market sentiment from capacity concerns to demand optimism [2][11]. CPO/OCS Technical Progress - CPO technology is advancing in scale-out scenarios, with NVIDIA's 200G platform already having products available. However, the TCO advantage of CPO is only significant in ideal scenarios with large-scale clusters [3][10]. - The scale-up scenario is seen as the core direction for CPO, but it requires advancements in 400G SerDes and CoWoS packaging, with no clear product forms currently available [3][10]. Industry Chain and Investment Strategy - Key players in the CPO/OCS industry include NVIDIA's partners such as Broadcom, Corning, and TSMC. Investment strategies should focus on core players within the industry chain [4][5]. - The investment strategy suggests focusing on confirmed targets within the CPO/OCS sector, avoiding high-risk investments, and capitalizing on market fluctuations through strategic positioning [5][7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sentiment around CPO is currently weak, impacting the demand and long-term valuation of optical modules. However, the expected capital expenditures from leading tech companies provide a solid foundation for short-term demand [11][12]. - The market is expected to experience high volatility as new technologies progress, and investors are advised to remain cautious and strategic in their approach to CPO and optical module investments [12][13]. Additional Important Insights - Discussions around the potential use of CPO in the RubinUltra L2 layer remain speculative, with no official confirmation. If implemented, it would not affect the demand for external scale-out optical modules [8][9]. - The NPO technology is progressing rapidly, with manufacturers pushing for samples and advancements, potentially offering competitive advantages over CPO in terms of production feasibility and cost [10].

Group 1 - The China Securities Artificial Intelligence Theme Index (930713) increased by 0.97% as of February 10, 2026, with notable gains from companies such as Chipone Technology (6.78%), Guanghui New Network (6.07%), and Cambricon Technologies (4.32%) [1] - The AI Artificial Intelligence ETF (512930) rose by 0.88%, with the latest price at 2.29 yuan [1] - CPO (Chip-on-Photonic) concept continues to show strength, with Yuanjie Technology planning to invest approximately 1.251 billion yuan in the second phase of its optoelectronic communication semiconductor chip and device R&D production base [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities pointed out that CPO is accelerating, with Lumentum reporting several hundred million dollars in CPO-related orders, expecting CPO revenue of about 50 million dollars in Q4 2026 and a significant surge in H1 2027 [2] - The fiber optics industry is transitioning to a phase of "tight supply and rising prices," suggesting a focus on companies with optical fiber rod capacity and those with significant or specialty fiber production [2] - North American CSPs (Cloud Service Providers) are expected to maintain strong capital expenditure growth into Q4 2025, indicating optimism for future capital expenditure guidance in the overseas AI computing power supply chain [2] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Artificial Intelligence Theme Index accounted for 57.27% of the index, including companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, and Hikvision [3] - The AI Artificial Intelligence ETF closely tracks the China Securities Artificial Intelligence Theme Index, which selects 50 listed companies involved in providing foundational resources, technology, and application support for artificial intelligence [2][3]