Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the photovoltaic sector [2][7]. Core Insights - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products, effective from April 1, 2026, marks the end of over a decade of direct fiscal support for photovoltaic exports, potentially leading the industry towards high-quality development [1][2]. - A "window period" is expected to create a surge in export orders and production increases in Q1 2026, improving the performance of companies heavily reliant on exports [2]. - Following the end of the export rebate, overseas pricing for photovoltaic components is anticipated to rise, benefiting leading companies with strong brand and channel advantages [2]. - The cancellation of the rebate is seen as a response to the industry's call to reduce low-price competition, which may accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacities and allow leading firms to gain market share [2]. - Companies with overseas production capabilities and local market presence are expected to benefit from the reduced cost disadvantage of local manufacturing [2]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be eliminated, transitioning the industry towards a more sustainable growth model [1][2]. Market Dynamics - A surge in orders and production is expected in Q1 2026 due to the impending policy change, similar to previous "rush to install" phenomena [2]. - The end of the rebate is likely to lead to a reevaluation of overseas component prices, with stronger pricing power for top-tier companies [2]. Competitive Landscape - The cancellation of the rebate is anticipated to facilitate the exit of low-efficiency production capacities, allowing leading companies to enhance their market share through technological and brand advantages [2]. - Companies with advanced technologies and cost advantages, such as those focusing on TOPCon/BC technologies and silicon material upgrades, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [2]. Valuation of Key Companies - A table of key companies with their respective valuations and projected earnings for 2025-2027 is provided, indicating varying levels of profitability and market performance [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies, including Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH), Daqian Energy (688303.SH), Haibo Sichuang (688411.SH), Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), Flat Glass Group (601865.SH), Longxin Group (300682.SZ), and Quartz Co., Ltd. (603688.SH) [2] Core Insights - The solar industry has experienced a decline in new installations, with November 2025 seeing a 11.9% year-on-year decrease, totaling 22.0 GW. However, the cumulative new installations from January to November 2025 reached 274.89 GW, reflecting a 33.2% increase year-on-year [3][13] - Solar module exports in November 2025 amounted to 171.4 billion yuan, marking a 33.9% year-on-year increase and a 6.6% month-on-month increase. The cumulative export value from January to November 2025 was 1854.0 billion yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year [4][16] - Inverter exports also showed positive growth, with November 2025 exports reaching 54.5 billion yuan, a 25.6% year-on-year increase and a 13.0% month-on-month increase. The cumulative export value for inverters from January to November 2025 was 587.5 billion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year [4][28] - Solar power generation in November 2025 increased by 23.4% year-on-year, contributing to 5.29% of the total national power generation, which was 7792 billion kWh, a 2.7% increase year-on-year [5][41] Summary by Sections New Installations - November 2025 saw a domestic solar installation of 22.0 GW, down 11.9% year-on-year but up 74.8% month-on-month. Cumulative installations for the year reached 274.89 GW, up 33.2% year-on-year [3][13] Exports - Solar module exports in November 2025 were 171.4 billion yuan, up 33.9% year-on-year and 6.6% month-on-month. Cumulative exports for the year were 1854.0 billion yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year [4][16] - Inverter exports reached 54.5 billion yuan in November 2025, a 25.6% year-on-year increase and a 13.0% month-on-month increase. Cumulative exports for the year were 587.5 billion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year [4][28] Power Generation - Solar power generation in November 2025 was 412.2 billion kWh, reflecting a 23.4% year-on-year increase and accounting for 5.29% of total national power generation [5][41] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Aishuo Co., Ltd. for new technology, Daqian Energy and Flat Glass Group for supply-side initiatives, Haibo Sichuang and Sungrow Power Supply for energy storage, Longxin Group for market-oriented strategies, and Quartz Co., Ltd. for domestic substitution [5][46]

Investment Rating - The report rates the photovoltaic industry as "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2]. Core Insights - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products, effective April 1, 2026, marks the end of over a decade of direct fiscal support for photovoltaic exports, potentially leading the industry into a phase of high-quality development [1]. - A "window period" is anticipated, leading to increased overseas orders and production ramp-up in Q1 2026, similar to previous phases of accelerated installations, which is expected to improve the performance of export-oriented photovoltaic companies [2]. - After the policy window closes, overseas component prices are likely to be renegotiated, as China, being the largest exporter of photovoltaic components, will have stronger pricing power due to the cancellation of the rebate, which is expected to lead to price increases [2]. - The cancellation of the export rebate is seen as a response to the call for reducing low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, which will accelerate the exit of inefficient production capacities and reshape the market landscape [2]. - Companies with overseas production capacity and strong brand/channel advantages are expected to benefit from the narrowing cost disadvantage of local manufacturing, particularly in regions like the Middle East and North Africa [2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Outlook - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate is expected to enhance the industry's quality of development and reduce fiscal funds being transferred to overseas terminals [2]. - The report suggests that leading companies with technological advantages (TOPCon/BC), strong brands, and distribution channels will continue to gain market share [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with overseas production capabilities, such as Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others, which are expected to benefit from the "price adjustment and capacity exit" [2]. - Companies that are advancing new technologies and material upgrades, such as Aiko Solar and Dongfang Risheng, are also highlighted for their potential to enhance product efficiency and pricing power [2]. - Cost-advantaged silicon material companies like Tongwei Co. and Daqo New Energy are recommended for investment consideration [2]. Valuation Table - A valuation table is provided, detailing the estimated net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies in the industry, indicating varying performance expectations for 2025 to 2027 [3].

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 01 月 11 日 卫星星座扩容，打开商业航天市场天花板 商业航天事件点评 中游制造/军工 事件： 近日，国际电信联盟（ITU）官网显示，中国提交了新增 20.3 万颗的卫星申请， 此次申报涵盖 14 个卫星星座，其中 CTC-1 和 CTC-2 两个星座各自申请 96,714 颗。 评论： 相对于"GW"星座与千帆星座，本次卫星申请大幅度提升了星座的数量及卫星 的总量，或将有效的提升商业航天整体的市场空间。 商业航天加速了航天产业链的发展。商业航天，是指以市场为主导、具有商业 盈利模式的航天活动。近年来，中国商业航天力量如雨后春笋般涌现，展现出 令人瞩目的实力，为加快发展新质生产力不断注入新的动能，或将可以有效的 带动国内通信、能源、新材料等产业的发展。 海南国际商业航天发射中心发射工位持续增加。根据海南国际商业航天发射中 心党委副书记郭强介绍，一期按照 2 个中型液体工位和 2 个固体小型工位来进 行规划的。中型液体工位每年打 16 发火箭，固体工位一个打几十发火箭。为了 适应现在市场的需要，后面有二期、三期和更大的计划。目前，海南商业航天 发射场二期在文昌开 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trend of "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need for high-quality development due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [5][7] - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to lead to a shift from low-price competition to competition based on technology, branding, and service upgrades [7] - The report suggests that leading companies with technological advantages and overseas production capacity are well-positioned to benefit from these changes [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is facing challenges due to low-price competition exacerbated by export tax rebates, which have been utilized by some companies to lower prices in overseas markets [5][7] - The cancellation of these rebates aims to rationalize overseas market prices and reduce international trade friction [5] Short-term Impact - A transition period of nearly three months is set before the policy takes effect, likely leading to a surge in exports in Q1 2026 as companies rush to take advantage of the remaining rebate benefits [6] - In the first seven months of 2025, domestic photovoltaic cell and module exports amounted to 111.207 billion, a decrease of 22.64% compared to the same period in 2024, while from August to November 2025, exports increased by 23.81% year-on-year [6] Long-term Outlook - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity and promote high-quality competition within the industry [7] - Leading companies are anticipated to leverage their technological advantages and brand influence to maintain pricing power and gain market share [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading battery component companies with technological advantages and overseas production capabilities, specifically mentioning Aiko Solar and other notable companies such as Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, JA Solar, Tongwei, Junda, Dongfang Risheng, and Hengdian East Magnetic [8]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 01 11 年 月 日 电力设备 光伏产品取消出口退税，江苏超 800MW 海上风电项目获核准 光伏：两部门宣布取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税，硅料电池组件价格上涨。近 日财政部、税务总局发布关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告：自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自 2026 年 4 月 1 日起至 2026 年 12 月 31 日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由 9%下调至 6%；2027 年 1 月 1 日 起，取消电池产品增值税出口退税。适时降低或取消光伏产品的出口退税，有助于 推动国外市场价格理性回归，降低我国面临的贸易摩擦的风险。据安泰科统计，本 周多晶硅 n 型复投料成交价格区间为 5.0-6.3 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.92 万元/吨， 周环比上涨 9.83%。n 型颗粒硅成交价格区间为 5.0-6.4 万元/吨，成交均价为 5.58 万元/吨，环比涨幅为 10.5%。据 Infolink，本周 N 型电池片价格如下：183N、 210RN 与 210N 均价再度上调，本周上升至每瓦 0.39 元人民 ...

Core Viewpoint - The BC (Back Contact) technology is emerging as a mainstream solution in the photovoltaic industry, shifting from a technical benchmark to a core engine for growth, addressing the industry's challenges and redefining its development logic [1] Group 1: Technology and Performance - BC technology enhances solar cell efficiency by placing both positive and negative electrodes on the back, increasing light absorption and conversion efficiency, with laboratory results showing a conversion rate of 27.55%, outperforming other technologies by over 1.2% [2] - The technology has resolved industry pain points such as shading, hot spots, and anti-cracking, with Aiko's BC modules achieving A+ certification for shading resistance and significantly lower surface temperatures in high-temperature and shaded environments [2] - BC technology opens up new application scenarios, increasing customer acquisition success rates from 30% to 60% in previously challenging environments, thus reducing costs and potential fire risks [3] Group 2: Market Applications and Growth - Aiko has successfully introduced BC technology across various applications, including residential, commercial, and utility-scale projects, with products designed for specific conditions such as mountainous terrains and extreme environments [3][4] - The market share for BC technology in utility-scale applications is expected to grow by 10% annually in the coming years, emphasizing the importance of creating diverse application scenarios for competitive advantage [5] Group 3: Industry Collaboration and Ecosystem - BC technology fosters a new collaborative ecosystem in the photovoltaic industry, moving beyond traditional supply chain relationships to a model of open innovation and shared growth among companies [7][9] - Companies like Aiko are not only achieving breakthroughs in technology and market but also acting as integrators and organizers within this new ecosystem, enhancing overall industry competitiveness [7] Group 4: Value Creation and Market Dynamics - The introduction of BC technology shifts the focus from price competition to value creation, redefining the value dimensions of photovoltaic products and enabling companies to provide tailored solutions for different customer needs [10][12] - Aiko's ABC modules have maintained the highest production efficiency globally for 34 consecutive months, achieving a production efficiency of 25%, and are gaining market share in high-value regions such as Europe and Australia [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the trend of anti-involution is not a concern, and the space photovoltaic industry is accelerating [1] - The report discusses the recent regulatory actions in the photovoltaic sector, emphasizing the prohibition of monopolistic behaviors such as price and capacity coordination, while allowing compliance with cost-based sales and technology standard improvements [4] - The report notes a continued upward trend in industry prices, with expectations for profit recovery in 2026 as terminal demand gradually improves [4] - The rise of commercial space ventures is accelerating the development of space photovoltaic technology, with significant plans for satellite energy networks and high-efficiency energy generation [4] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The market regulatory authority has halted self-regulatory actions related to the photovoltaic industry's silicon material integration platform, citing monopolistic concerns [4] - A collaborative governance framework is being established among enterprises, power generation entities, and associations to ensure compliance and quality standards [4] Industry Price Trends - The average transaction price for N-type silicon material has increased to 59,200 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.83% [4] - Prices for N-type silicon wafers and battery cells have also seen upward adjustments, indicating a recovery in the industry [4] Space Photovoltaic Development - Elon Musk has announced plans to deploy a 100GW solar-powered satellite energy network annually, while China aims to establish gigawatt-level space data centers by 2035 [4] - Space photovoltaic technology is expected to achieve commercial viability within the next 10-15 years, driven by advancements in battery technology and reduced launch costs [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with technological reserves in space photovoltaic, such as Junda Co., JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others [4] - It also recommends monitoring leading companies with strong advantages in new technologies, as well as those benefiting from anti-involution policies in the silicon material segment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the trend of anti-involution is not a concern, and the space photovoltaic industry is accelerating [1] - The report discusses the recent regulatory actions in the photovoltaic sector, emphasizing the prohibition of monopolistic behaviors such as price and capacity coordination, while allowing compliance with cost-based sales and technology standard improvements [4] - The report notes a continued upward trend in industry prices, with expectations for profit recovery in 2026 as terminal demand gradually improves [4] - The rise of commercial space and the acceleration of the space photovoltaic industry are underscored, with significant plans for deploying solar energy networks in space [4] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The market regulatory authority has halted self-regulatory actions related to the photovoltaic industry's silicon material integration platform, citing monopolistic concerns [4] - A collaborative governance framework is being established among enterprises, power generation entities, and associations to ensure compliance and quality standards [4] Industry Price Trends - The average transaction price for N-type silicon material has increased to 59,200 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.83% [4] - Prices for N-type silicon wafers and battery cells have also seen upward adjustments, indicating a recovery in the industry [4] Space Photovoltaic Development - Elon Musk's plan to deploy 100GW of solar-powered satellites annually is highlighted, along with China's plans for gigawatt-level space data centers [4] - The report anticipates that space photovoltaic technology will become commercialized in the next 10-15 years, driven by decreasing launch costs and technological breakthroughs [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with technological reserves in space photovoltaic, such as Junda Co., JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others [4] - It also recommends monitoring leading companies with strong advantages in new technologies, as well as those benefiting from anti-involution policies in the silicon material segment [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the trend of anti-involution is not a concern, and the space photovoltaic industry is accelerating [1] - The report discusses the recent regulatory actions in the photovoltaic sector, emphasizing the prohibition of monopolistic behaviors such as price and capacity coordination, while allowing compliance with cost-based sales and technology standard improvements [4] - The report notes a continued upward trend in industry chain prices, with expectations for profit recovery in 2026 as terminal demand gradually warms up [4] - The rise of commercial space and the acceleration of the space photovoltaic industry are emphasized, with significant plans for deploying solar energy networks in space [4] Summary by Sections Regulatory Environment - The market regulatory authority has halted self-regulatory actions related to the photovoltaic industry's silicon material integration platform, citing monopolistic concerns [4] - The framework for collaborative governance among enterprises, power generation parties, and associations is outlined, focusing on compliance and quality standards [4] Industry Price Trends - Recent data indicates that the average transaction price for N-type silicon material has increased to 59,200 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.83% [4] - Prices for N-type silicon wafers and battery cells have also seen upward adjustments, with average prices reaching 1.4 to 1.7 CNY per piece and 0.39 CNY per watt, respectively [4] Space Photovoltaic Development - Elon Musk's plan to deploy 100GW of solar energy satellites annually is highlighted, alongside China's phased deployment of gigawatt-level space data centers from 2025 to 2035 [4] - The report anticipates that space photovoltaic technology will become commercialized within the next 10-15 years, driven by decreasing launch costs and breakthroughs in battery technology [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with technological reserves in space photovoltaic, including JunDa Co., JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and others [4] - It also recommends attention to leading companies with strong advantages in new technologies, such as LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar [4] - Companies benefiting from anti-involution policies in the silicon material segment, such as Tongwei Co. and GCL-Poly Energy, are also highlighted [4] - The report advises monitoring companies that prioritize synergy in energy storage and are relatively independent from the main chain, such as Sungrow Power Supply and others [4]