Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that recent liquidity shocks in overseas markets, driven by concerns over the AI software bubble and subsequent momentum selling, have led to significant volatility in equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. It suggests that some assets may have been "wrongly killed" due to these liquidity shocks, as the macroeconomic fundamentals and broad liquidity environment have not changed significantly [1][13] - The report anticipates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment and CPI data for January may present upward risks, potentially reversing the slight increase in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts observed this week [1][13] Financial Products - The report highlights that overseas market liquidity shows signs of stabilization, which may improve market sentiment. It predicts a positive outlook for the A-share market in February, with a historical probability of 78.57% for an increase following a macro timing model score of 0 [1][16] - Fund allocation recommendations suggest a balanced ETF configuration due to expected short-term market fluctuations, with a focus on sectors like chemicals and electric grid equipment, which continue to see increasing fund sizes [1][16] Commodity Market - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity prices, noting that certain commodities, which rely on supply-demand improvements, have been "wrongly hurt" but may return to fundamental pricing logic as market conditions stabilize [2][17] - It emphasizes that the recent volatility in silver and other precious metals indicates a potential end to the liquidity shock, with silver becoming a key indicator of market sentiment [2][17] Environmental Industry - The report stresses the importance of advancing the national carbon market and outlines investment recommendations in clean energy, energy conservation, and recycling sectors. It highlights specific companies such as Longjing Environmental and others involved in renewable energy and waste management [6][10] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report notes a recovery in the IPO and refinancing market, with significant year-on-year growth in both areas. It indicates that the capital market reforms and increased market activity are expected to benefit brokerage firms' investment banking revenues [9] AI Industry and Bond Financing - The report focuses on the AI industry, highlighting the need for a diversified financing system to support technology companies, particularly private firms with high growth potential. It reviews case studies of leading tech companies' bond financing paths to assess the feasibility of similar strategies in China [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued a notification to enhance the national carbon market construction, indicating a clear expansion of the carbon trading market by 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: Carbon Market Management - Strengthening the management of key emission units in power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, with a focus on quota compliance by 2025 [2]. - Key emission units with direct emissions reaching 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalent must be included in the 2027 national carbon trading market list, to be published by provincial ecological environment departments by October 31, 2026 [2]. - Data quality management for key emission units will be organized by provincial departments, with a control plan due by December 31, 2026 [2]. Group 2: Reporting and Verification - Other key industries such as petrochemicals, chemicals, construction materials, non-ferrous metals, paper, and civil aviation are required to report their 2025 emissions data, with verification deadlines set for March 31 and December 31, 2026 [3]. - Industries not yet included, like steel and cement, must also report by March 31, 2026, with verification by July 31, 2026 [3]. Group 3: Market Expansion and Future Outlook - The carbon market currently covers approximately 8 billion tons of emissions, accounting for over 60% of national carbon emissions, with plans to expand coverage to major industrial sectors by 2027 [4]. - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is preparing technical documents for quota distribution and verification for industries like chemicals, petrochemicals, and civil aviation, supporting the market's expansion [4]. - The tightening of long-term quotas is expected to drive carbon prices upward, alongside total control and a combination of free and paid allocations [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include focusing on clean energy companies such as Longjing Environmental Protection and those involved in biofuels and green hydrogen [5]. - Companies engaged in energy-saving technologies and waste resource recovery are also highlighted for investment opportunities [5]. - Carbon monitoring firms like Xuedilong and JuGuang Technology are suggested for attention due to their relevance in the evolving carbon market [5].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index (470064) closed at 2441.55 points, down 0.46%, with a trading volume of 28.0 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.99% [1] - Among the constituent stocks of the index, 14 stocks rose, with Zhongyuan Media leading with a 2.71% increase, while 33 stocks fell, with Fuan Energy leading the decline at 2.76% [1] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds from the Shenzhen State-Owned Enterprises Shareholder Return Index constituent stocks totaled 1.776 billion yuan, while the net inflow of speculative funds was 570 million yuan, and the net inflow of retail funds was 1.206 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of the national carbon market construction, with a clear roadmap for the second expansion, emphasizing the importance of carbon trading in driving up carbon prices [5]. - It notes that the carbon market currently covers approximately 8 billion tons of emissions, accounting for over 60% of national carbon emissions, with plans to expand coverage to additional industries by 2027 [5]. - The report suggests a carbon neutrality investment framework focusing on energy substitution, energy conservation, and recycling, recommending specific companies in clean energy, energy efficiency, and recycling sectors [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report discusses the recent notification from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment regarding the management of carbon emissions quotas for key industries, including power generation, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, which will be included in the carbon trading market by 2027 [5]. - It outlines the timeline for quota allocation and compliance, indicating a structured approach to managing carbon emissions and ensuring timely compliance by relevant industries [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on clean energy companies such as Longjing Environmental Protection and those involved in bio-oil resources like Shanggou Energy and Langke Technology [5]. - It also highlights opportunities in energy efficiency management and recycling, suggesting companies like Ruicheng Environmental Protection and High Energy Environment for hazardous waste resource utilization [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a decline in gas prices in Europe and the US due to warming temperatures, while domestic gas prices remain stable as of February 6, 2026 [1] Price Tracking - As of February 6, 2026, gas prices have decreased week-on-week: US HH by 31.5%, European TTF by 11%, East Asia JKM by 3.6%, Chinese LNG ex-factory price by 2%, and Chinese LNG CIF price by 11.6%, with current prices at 1.2, 3.1, 2.8, 2.7, and 2.6 yuan per cubic meter respectively [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas market prices fell by 31.5% week-on-week, with storage levels decreasing by 2,420 billion cubic feet to 28,230 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [2] - European gas prices decreased by 11.0% week-on-week, with gas consumption from January to October 2025 at 3,495 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [2] - European gas supply fell by 5.2% week-on-week to 124,499 GWh, with a notable decrease in supply from inventory and LNG receiving stations [2] - Domestic gas prices decreased by 2.0% week-on-week, with apparent consumption in China from January to December 2025 at 4,332 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2] Pricing Progress - As of 2026, 68% of cities in China have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that supply is ample, and city gas companies are optimizing costs, with a focus on continuous pricing adjustments and demand growth [4] - Key recommendations include companies like Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, which have attractive dividend yields and potential for valuation recovery [4] - Attention is drawn to companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Shares [4] - The importance of energy independence is highlighted, recommending companies with gas production capabilities like Shouhua Gas [4]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-10 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 海外周报 20260208：1 月美国非农和 CPI 前瞻：关注上行风险——海外 宏观与交易复盘 核心观点：本周（2 月 2-8 日）在美股 AI 软件泡沫担忧引发的科技股大 跌、及随后的动量抛售等交易因素造成的流动性冲击下，海外权益、大宗 商品和比特币等资产经历剧烈波动。我们认为，近期资本市场的流动性冲 击更多来自交易层面，而海外宏观基本面和广义流动性环境并未有显著 变化，这意味着部分资产存在被流动性冲击"错杀"的可能。关注下周公 布的 1 月美国非农就业和 CPI 数据，我们预期二者均存在上行风险，令 本周略有升温的美联储降息预期再度面临回调。 宏观量化经济指数周报 20260208：预计 2026 年 1 月贷款温和增长、社 融小幅同比多增 晨会编辑 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 东吴证券研究所 1 / 37 [Table_Tag] 节前经济供需两端基本符合季节性特征 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a warming trend in temperatures leading to a decline in gas prices in Europe and the US, while domestic gas prices remain stable [1][9] - It emphasizes the overall supply being relaxed, with domestic gas prices decreasing by 2.0% week-on-week [26] - The report suggests that the pricing mechanism is being rationalized, and demand is expected to increase [1] Price Tracking - As of February 6, 2026, the week-on-week changes in gas prices are as follows: US HH down 31.5%, European TTF down 11%, East Asia JKM down 3.6%, China LNG ex-factory down 2%, and China LNG CIF down 11.6% [9][10] - The report notes that the average gas consumption in Europe for the first ten months of 2025 was 349.5 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report indicates that the US natural gas market price decreased by 31.5% week-on-week due to a high base, with storage levels at 28,230 billion cubic feet, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [14] - In Europe, gas supply decreased by 5.2% week-on-week, with a notable drop in gas-fired power generation output by 10.9% week-on-week [15] - Domestic gas consumption for 2025 is projected to increase by 2.3% year-on-year to 433.2 billion cubic meters, attributed to warmer winter conditions affecting heating gas demand [26] Pricing Progress - The report states that 68% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [40] - The report anticipates continued pricing adjustments and improvements in profitability for city gas companies [40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [1] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Co. [1] - The report highlights the importance of energy independence and recommends companies with gas production capabilities, such as Shouhua Gas [1]

来源：中国证券报 春节假期临近，全国最大的黄金饰品集散地——深圳水贝黄金市场迎来了最忙碌的时刻。 中国证券报记者调研发现，在最强黄金周期催化下，节前黄金消费市场活力十足、亮点纷呈。在消费者 多元化需求的带动下，商户及相关产业链公司也积极求变。 "金价高了，大家对黄金饰品的成色和品质也更加关心了。"该检验中心的工作人员表示，随着近期黄金 饰品交易活跃，该中心每天的业务量明显增多，现在每天大概可以接到200至300件送检的商品。 消费理念悄然变化 黄金消费群体也在发生变化。记者在水贝市场观察到，购金的年轻面孔明显增多。 多位商户向记者证实，年轻人已成为当下"购金热"的重要参与者。他们购买黄金的动机更加多元：既有 婚嫁、送礼等传统刚性需求，也有悦己消费、投资储蓄等新需求。 在水贝万山市场，"90后"消费者代女士正在挑选手链。她告诉记者："我买金饰主要是佩戴，不是投 资。如果要投资，我会选择金条类产品。相比大克重的'压箱底'，我更喜欢这种设计精巧、日常能戴的 款式。" 最强周期下的"淘金热" 腊月二十（2月7日），水贝国际珠宝交易中心人头攒动，店员喜庆的红色着装与金饰柜台里的暖光交相 辉映，浓浓的年味扑面而来。 记者 ...

农历腊月二十的水贝国际珠宝交易中心一楼，消费者人头攒动，店员喜庆的红色着装与金饰柜台泛出的 暖光交相辉映，浓浓的年味儿扑面而来。 春节临近，作为全国黄金饰品集散地之一的深圳水贝黄金市场迎来了最忙碌的时节。中国证券报记者近 日调研发现，在近段时间黄金价格走强的背景下，来水贝市场里的深圳水贝国际珠宝交易中心和深圳水 贝万山珠宝商业中心购买各种金饰的消费者络绎不绝。在多元化需求的带动下，商户及相关产业链上的 公司力求在产品设计、渠道建设、服务体验等方面创新求变。 客流量成倍增加 编者按 春节将至，年味渐浓，本报今起推出"新春走基层"系列报道。中国证券报记者将分赴大江南北，深入繁 华都市的产业腹地、静谧乡村的田间地头，捕捉大城小镇升腾的烟火气，倾听普通人的梦想，记录他们 在岁序更新中的奋进与期待，用心感知中国经济生机勃勃的脉动。 "这几天，金价稍有回落，加上假期临近，客流量明显增多。"水贝国际珠宝交易中心一家档口的老板缪 先生表示，自己从业12年来，今年春节假期前的黄金行情波动比较大。一方面，国际金价连创新高，消 费者对黄金饰品的关注度空前，客流量成倍增加，销售额创下新高；另一方面，由于金价的波动，他的 加工厂在购买 ...

● 本报记者 齐金钊 春节临近，作为全国黄金饰品集散地之一的深圳水贝黄金市场迎来了最忙碌的时节。中国证券报记者近 日调研发现，在近段时间黄金价格走强的背景下，来水贝市场里的深圳水贝国际珠宝交易中心和深圳水 贝万山珠宝商业中心购买各种金饰的消费者络绎不绝。在多元化需求的带动下，商户及相关产业链上的 公司力求在产品设计、渠道建设、服务体验等方面创新求变。 客流量成倍增加 企业紧盯需求变化 与以往"中国大妈"为主力的黄金消费群体不同，中国证券报记者在水贝万山珠宝商业中心发现，年轻面 孔明显增多。多位商户说，年轻人已成为当下"购金热"的重要参与者。（下转A02版） ■ 编者按 春节将至，年味渐浓，本报今起推出"新春走基层"系列报道。中国证券报记者将分赴大江南北，深入繁 华都市的产业腹地、静谧乡村的田间地头，捕捉大城小镇升腾的烟火气，倾听普通人的梦想，记录他们 在岁序更新中的奋进与期待，用心感知中国经济生机勃勃的脉动。 农历腊月二十的水贝国际珠宝交易中心一楼，消费者人头攒动，店员喜庆的红色着装与金饰柜台泛出的 暖光交相辉映，浓浓的年味儿扑面而来。 中国证券报记者看到，多家黄金零售档口前围满了选购商品的消费者，计算器敲击 ...