2026年3月1日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 证券研究报告 优质港房财报现积极信号，打开股价上 行空间 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2 周度观点：新鸿基地产业绩增长&股息提升，优质港房报表端积极信号逐步显现。本周新鸿基地产公布2026财年半年报，2026财年上半年 收入同比增长32%，归母净利润同比增长36.2%，撇除投资物业公平值变动影响后的核心归母净利润同比增长16.7%；中期股息0.98港元/ 股，同比增长3%。同时公司紧抓中国香港楼市修复契机，报告期内新增多宗地块有望充分受益香港楼市回升，实际融资成本进一步下降 到3%。发展物业减值拨备由上年同期的10.8亿港币降至0，投资物业公允价值变动由上年同期-28.8亿港元缩减至本期-13.1亿港元，侧面 体现香港楼市回暖及商业零售逐步好转。 三重对比港房股价仍有空间，重申全年看好港资房企。我们认为港资房企上行空间仍存：1）以新鸿基地产为例，目前PB为0.68倍，仍低 于业务模式（开发+持有）类似的华润置地（0.77PB），但香港楼市已经企稳，内地楼市仍在探底；2）上轮香港楼市调整于2003年见底， 新 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 房地产开发 2026W8：上海进一步放松限购，关注小阳春市场表现 上海发布楼市新政，政策效用或持续数月，全国层面仍待中央政策的落位。 2 月 25 日上海发布楼市新政，政策主要包括限购政策放松、公积金额度 上浮、房产税免征范围扩大。非沪籍居民家庭或成年单身人士，在上海连 续缴纳社保或个税满 1 年及以上的，在外环外购买住房不限套数，在外环 内限购 1 套住房；连续缴纳满 3 年及以上的，在外环内限购 2 套住房；持 居住证满 5 年及以上的，在全市范围内限购 1 套住房。整体来看，政策围 绕新上海人（包括缴纳社保和未缴纳社保的）、公积金额度提升预算展开， 预计对刚需、刚改都有提振作用，进而去试图打开置换的链条。基于上海 当前基本面（有所下降的二手房挂牌、下跌过的房价、高企的新房库存）， 我们预计政策对市场有效烘托时长是 3-4 个月，上海小阳春成交会起量， 价格整体相对平稳，二手房议价空间收窄，进一步消耗二手挂牌和新房存 量，改善供需结构。上海城市维度政策或就此出尽，而且上海城市地位有 一定特殊，上海城市政策对全国作用相对 ...

Current Strategy Viewpoints - The capital market experienced fluctuations in early February but rebounded later in the month, primarily due to reduced trading activity before the Spring Festival and short-term policy guidance [1] - The market is expected to enter a phase of economic data and policy verification, with a seasonal increase in trading activity post-Spring Festival, laying a foundation for future market performance [1] - Upcoming economic and corporate profit data, along with the National People's Congress in March, will be crucial for setting the annual policy tone and economic targets, which are significant for the capital market [1] Sector Focus - Short-term focus on safe-haven assets and resource products due to tensions in the Middle East, including precious metals and oil sectors [2] - Long-term focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with particular attention to small-cap stocks that typically perform well in spring [2] - Key sectors to watch include humanoid robots, computing, and AI, benefiting from sustained industry enthusiasm and increased risk appetite among investors [2] Macro Overview - The upcoming National People's Congress will set the tone for the annual economy, with GDP growth targets expected to be set between 4.5% and 5% [8] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to include a deficit rate of 4.0% and new special bonds totaling 5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in fiscal deficit compared to last year [8] Financial Engineering - The A-share market has seen a rise in industry crowding, particularly in media and resource sectors, with the media sector showing a crowding degree of 98.25% [12][14] - The resource sector continues to perform well, with price fluctuations leading to a decrease in crowding indicators, suggesting a potential for continued upward movement [13] Electronic Communication Industry - The upcoming GTC conference is expected to showcase new chip developments from NVIDIA, reinforcing AI as a core investment theme [24] - The demand for storage products is projected to rise significantly, driven by strong AI customer needs and price increases in the DRAM market [25] Computer Industry - The rapid iteration of domestic AI large models is expected to drive significant growth in computing power investments, with a focus on world model technology advancements [28] - The demand for AI-driven applications is anticipated to increase, leading to a surge in computing needs and infrastructure investments [29] New Energy Industry - Focus on hydrogen and ammonia projects, with government support for integrated energy bases expected to drive growth in this sector [32] - The electric power equipment sector is poised for growth due to ongoing global energy demands and potential easing of import restrictions in India [32] High-end Manufacturing Industry - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of mass production, with significant advancements showcased during the Spring Festival [35] - The North American AI supply chain remains robust, with ongoing demand for advanced equipment and materials expected to drive growth [36]

因为债务风波以及收购传闻而备受市场关注的新世界发展，交出了一份业绩表现普通的财务报表。 2月27日，新世界发展披露2026财年上半年（截至2025年12月31日止6个月）的财报显示，报告期内，新 世界发展收入同比下降约50%至约83.91亿港元；核心经营利润同比下降约18%至约36.36亿港元；归母 净亏损约37.3亿港元，同比收窄44%。 虽然亏损额同比收窄，但无论是营收或者核心经营利润，新世界发展的业务仍在下行通道。 2025年，对新世界发展也是特殊的一年：去年年初，新世界发展提出推行七招全力减债计划，年中仍因 债务利息延期支付陷入债务漩涡。虽然后来通过再融资的方式暂时缓解财务压力，但市场对新世界发展 的未来仍然充满疑虑。 在新世界发展的业绩会上，新世界发展管理层面对投资者表示，"公司减债策略见成效，业务发展态势 持续向好。"虽然管理层似乎信心十足，但是去年再融资的债券将在2028年到期，而新世界发展目前的 业务发展情况也并不明朗，这将是悬在它头上的达摩克利斯之剑。 新世界发展管理层在回应如何应对的问题时并未直接提及方案，而是表示公司一直用务实的方式改善运 营和财务状况，公司运营也在向好发展，接下来会继续 ...

中经记者 杨让晨 石英婧 上海报道 中指研究院上海数据总经理张文静告诉记者，此次上海新政精准赋能重点人群，让合理住房诉求得到切 实满足，同时激活区域成交活力，将有效带动该区域及全市住房成交；还将稳预期促市场回归，推动房 地产市场回归平稳健康的发展轨道。 沪上楼市热度持续攀升 (上海楼市新政后，温州看房团现身"全国地王"项目安澜上海。石英婧/摄影) 随着"沪七条"新政落地，沪上开发商摩拳擦掌，热门项目备受关注。 记者从保利上海方面获悉，在2月25日下午，"沪七条"公布不久，保利上海各大楼盘的热度开始提升。 如保利外滩曜&外滩启项目，坐拥上海内环优势，在新政颁布后仅6小时，就有超过100组访客到访，并 且成交3套。 而保利上海位于外环的项目保利·西郊和煦 领墅，在新政首日也受到不少客户垂青，并且收获多单。保 利都汇和煦的一位置业顾问告诉记者，新政出台当天下午，有客户翘班来看房，谈了一个多小时下 定，"虽然下定后客户还提出想要优惠，但是整体客户信心及决策速度都很快。" 记者注意到，2月26日上海楼市新政"沪七条"正式实施，除了降低购房门槛外，此次新政还对公积金、 个人房产税等政策做出调整。购买首套房的公积金贷款最高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai's new real estate policies, announced on February 25, aim to stabilize the housing market and support reasonable housing demand through seven key adjustments, effective from February 26, 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Adjustments - The new policies include adjustments in housing purchase restrictions, public housing fund loans, and personal housing property tax regulations [1][2]. - Non-local residents can now purchase homes in the outer ring of Shanghai with just one year of social insurance or personal income tax payments, a reduction from previous requirements [3][4]. - The maximum public housing fund loan for first-time homebuyers has increased from 1.6 million to 2.4 million yuan, with potential increases for families with multiple children and green buildings [4][5]. Group 2: Market Response - Following the announcement, there was a noticeable increase in customer inquiries and visits to various real estate projects, indicating a positive market reaction [1][6]. - Sales teams reported immediate sales following the policy announcement, with projects like Jinmao Puyuan and Jianfa Haichen seeing significant increases in customer engagement [6][7]. - Analysts predict that these policies will lead to a "small spring" in the Shanghai real estate market, potentially stabilizing prices and increasing transaction volumes in the coming months [1][9]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The policies are seen as a comprehensive approach to address various housing needs, including those of non-local residents and families with multiple children, thus broadening the support base [5][10]. - The adjustments are expected to not only benefit Shanghai's market but also serve as a model for other cities, potentially influencing national real estate trends [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" further releases purchasing power by reducing housing purchase restrictions and optimizing housing provident fund loan policies, which is expected to alleviate payment pressure and stimulate demand [2][3] - The Shanghai real estate market has adjusted for three years, with a widening price gap between new and second-hand homes, and the new policies are beneficial for breaking the replacement chain [2][18] - There are signs of mild recovery in the market before the Spring Festival, with an increased probability of price stabilization [2][41] - Short-term outlook for real estate stocks is positive due to improved data performance and market conditions, while mid-term focus should be on whether housing prices can stabilize, with March being a critical observation point [2][50] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" lowers the threshold for home purchases, allowing eligible non-residents to buy an additional property and easing restrictions for residents [3][4] - The maximum loan amount for first-time homebuyers using the housing provident fund has been increased from 1.6 million yuan to 2.4 million yuan, with additional support for families with multiple children [4] Market Dynamics - The average transaction price for new homes has risen to 10 million yuan, while the second-hand home market shows a steady recovery with average prices around 4 million yuan [18] - The disparity in average prices between new and second-hand homes has made it difficult for homeowners to upgrade, but the new policies aim to facilitate this process [18][19] Market Recovery Indicators - The rate of decline in second-hand home prices has slowed significantly, with Shanghai's prices turning positive at +0.5% [41] - The transaction volume of second-hand homes in January increased by 16% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [41][42] - New home market conditions have also shown marginal improvement, with major developers reporting better sales performance [42]

26日，是新政施行首日，又逢工作日，记者采访发现，线上热度已经活跃起来 ，衡量楼市活跃度的先行指 标开始出现变化。 交易热线咨询量连续两天破千 新政7条细则聚焦限购、公积金和税收三方面。尽管政策传导至市场交易量尚需时日，但不少意向购房人 已开始计划"上车"。 25日13时新政发布后，市民小俞便在微信买房群里和群友们热聊起来。"我就盼着公积金贷款能再提一 点。"小俞说，新政将首套住房公积金贷款的最高额度再次上调，这次他下定决心买房，但对于具体能贷 多少，还需仔细研究。 记者从上海市公积金管理中心获悉，"新七条"发布约半小时后，公积金贷款细则同步落地。从昨天13时30 分至今天中午12时，通过12329公积金热线等线上渠道涌入的市民咨询量已接近1500件。"大家最关注也是 最高贷款额度的具体计算方式。"工作人员介绍。 如果市民已申请公积金贷款，但尚未放款，能否撤销重办？这也成了此次咨询的重点。市公积金管理中心 工作人员答复说，2026年2月26日前已受理但未发放的贷款，借款申请人与购房合同各方协商一致的，可 向贷款受理机构申请撤销原贷款申请，按照调整后的政策重新申请公积金贷款，具体可咨询公积金贷款受 理机构。 与 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月27日 房地产行业快评 优于大市 "沪七条"进一步释放购买力，数据改善和政策博弈情绪共振 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | |  房地产 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 任鹤 | 010-88005315 | renhe@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040006 | | 证券分析师： | 王粤雷 | 0755-81981019 | wangyuelei@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520030001 | | 证券分析师： | 王静 | 021-60893314 | wangjing20@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100002 | 事项： 2026 年 2 月 25 日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务局、市公积金管理中 心等五部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产政策的通知》（以下简称"沪七条"），明确进一步 调减住房限购政策、优化住房公积金贷款政策、完善个人住房房产 ...

Global Apartment Market Dynamics - In January, the global rental index growth rate slowed to 1.99%, falling below 2%, indicating a cooling trend after previous rent increases [2] - In the US, rental prices have dropped to a four-year low, with the national median rent at $1,353, marking a 0.2% month-over-month decline, the smallest since August [2] - The largest annual rent increase was observed in Virginia Beach at 5.0%, while Austin saw the largest decline at -6.3% [3] Asia-Pacific Rental Market Dynamics - In Australia, rental prices have increased by 42.9% over the past five years, with a 5.2% rise in the last year alone [6] - In Singapore, private residential rents rose by 0.6% month-over-month in January, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [7] - In South Korea, Seoul's average apartment rent increased by 5.8% year-on-year, continuing a 30-month upward trend [8] China Rental Market Dynamics - In January, the rental median for the top 10 cities in China was 1,700 yuan/month, with a month-over-month decline of 2.86% [10] - The city with the largest month-over-month increase was Sanya at 15.88%, while Linzhi experienced the largest decline at -2.08% [10][12] Rental Business Developments - Several new rental projects opened in January, including the Ascott Shanghai and the Tianjin Binhai Yitang Service Apartment [13][14] - Ascott plans to sign 31 new projects in China by 2025, contributing significantly to its global expansion [15] Rental Housing Supply Dynamics - Various regions are launching affordable rental housing projects, with Xi'an starting the allocation of 690 affordable rental units [18] - In Fuzhou, 2,514 public rental units will be available at a 50% discount on market rates starting February [19] - Shanghai's Yucheng Apartment offers 724 affordable rental units starting at 2,000 yuan/month [20] Apartment Brand Rankings and Market Analysis - The ABN Index for January shows stable search and media indices, with top brands including Ascott and Vanke [30][31] - The rental housing transaction market remains active, with significant deals such as Guoshou Capital's acquisition of a 60% stake in Shanghai's long-term rental projects [32][33]