【华创汽车】26M2新势力折扣相对稳定，少量车型环比放大 1特斯拉：低折扣+2月放大，近半年折扣0-8k、折扣率0-3.4%，2月Model 3恢复8k保险补贴。 2小鹏：中折扣+2月放大，近半年折扣0-1.7w、折扣率0-6.8%，2月MONA新增5k购置税补贴。 3理想：高折扣+2月不变，近半年折扣0-4.5w、折扣率0-13.3%，2月折扣不变。 4极氪：高折扣+2月放大，近半年折扣0-2.7w、折扣率0-12.9%，2月007 GT新增1w保险补贴。 【华创汽车】26M2新势力折扣相对稳定，少量车型环比放大 1特斯拉：低折扣+2月放大，近半年折扣0-8k、折扣率0-3.4%，2月Model 3恢复8k保险补贴。 2小鹏：中折扣+2月放大，近半年折扣0-1.7w、折扣率0-6.8%，2月MONA新增5k购置税补贴。 3理想：高折扣+2月不变，近半年折扣0-4.5w、折扣率0-13 8智己：中折扣+2月不变，近半年折扣8k-1.5w、折扣率2.7-8.2%，2月折扣不变。 9蔚来：蔚来无固定折扣、乐道无折扣，萤火虫折扣2k、折扣率1.7%，2月折扣不变。 注1：资料来源杰兰路，月度统计时间为上月中旬至本月 ...

Core Insights - In January 2026, the Chinese automotive market entered a traditional off-season, with new energy vehicle (NEV) companies facing significant sales pressure and a reshuffling of the sales rankings [1][2] New Energy Vehicle Sales Dynamics - Hongmeng Zhixing topped the new energy vehicle sales in January with 57,915 units delivered, marking a 65.6% year-on-year increase [2] - Xiaomi Auto delivered over 39,000 units, with a focus on the YU7 model as the initial SU7 model has been phased out [2] - Leap Motor delivered 32,059 units, a 27% year-on-year increase, but showed a notable month-on-month decline [2] - Li Auto's deliveries were 27,668 units, experiencing both year-on-year and month-on-month declines due to delays in the i6 model's delivery [3] - NIO delivered 27,182 units, a 96.1% year-on-year increase, with the new ES8 model performing exceptionally well [3] - XPeng Motors delivered 20,011 units, facing declines as it is in a product iteration phase [3] Traditional Automakers' Performance - BYD achieved total NEV sales of 210,051 units in January, with exports reaching 100,482 units, a 51.47% year-on-year increase [4] - Chery Group exported 119,605 vehicles, a 48.1% year-on-year increase, maintaining its position as a leading exporter [4] - SAIC Group sold 327,413 vehicles, a 23.9% year-on-year increase, with a significant rise in overseas sales [4] - Geely's total sales reached 270,167 units, with a notable increase in exports, achieving a doubling in export numbers [4] - Great Wall Motors sold 90,312 vehicles, with overseas sales growing by 43.77% [5] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The decline in market demand is attributed to changes in the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy and the release of pent-up demand from 2025 [5] - Analysts suggest that the domestic passenger car market's growth momentum will shift towards overseas markets, with companies focusing on international expansion as a core growth strategy [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market in January 2026 is characterized by a stark contrast, with most automakers experiencing negative growth, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector, highlighting the importance of having a diversified product lineup that includes both fuel and electric vehicles [5][6][7]. Sales Performance Summary - In January, the retail sales of passenger cars are expected to reach 1.8 million units, a month-on-month decline of 20.4%, with NEV sales around 800,000 units, marking a penetration rate drop to 44.4%, nearly 10 percentage points lower than the peak at the end of 2025 [6][7]. - Traditional automakers like SAIC, Geely, and GAC Toyota reported stable sales due to their dual strategy of offering both fuel and NEVs, with SAIC's total sales reaching 327,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [10][11]. - Geely's total sales were 270,167 units, with fuel vehicles contributing significantly to its performance, while BYD faced a 30.11% decline in NEV sales, indicating the challenges faced by companies heavily reliant on NEVs [12][15]. Market Dynamics - The differentiation in sales performance among automakers is attributed to their strategic choices, particularly the presence of a fuel vehicle base, which enhances resilience against market fluctuations [9][19]. - The demand for fuel vehicles surged during the pre-Spring Festival period, as consumers preferred mature technology and the convenience of fuel vehicles for long-distance travel, further supported by the limited impact of policy changes on fuel vehicles [19][20]. Export Growth - Exports have become a crucial support for many leading automakers, with companies like Chery and SAIC reporting significant increases in overseas sales, indicating a dual strategy of maintaining domestic stability while expanding globally [17][18]. Future Outlook - The current market conditions signal a shift from policy-driven growth to market-driven dynamics, emphasizing the need for automakers to maintain a balanced portfolio of fuel and NEVs to navigate future uncertainties [22]. - Companies that can effectively manage their fuel vehicle base while rapidly advancing in the NEV sector are likely to emerge as market leaders, while those focusing solely on NEVs may face greater risks during market fluctuations [21][22].

这份销量榜单显示，小米汽车1月销量为39000辆，12月销量为50212辆，环比下降22%。原博主表示， 新势力总体看下来，最抗打的还是小米，尽管舆论压力大，但是粉丝忠诚度也高。 2月3日，小米产业投资部合伙人潘九堂转发了一份2026年1月新势力销量榜单并表示："小米车主中苹果 和其他品牌手机用户过半，小米的用户们不忠于品牌，忠于科学和理性，车主的真实用户体验和口碑传 播，别人黑不动。此外，1、2、3月都是行业传统淡季，别过度解读销量数据"。 | | | 2026年1月新势力销量(单位:辆) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新势力品牌 | 1月销量 | 12月销量 | 同比变化 | 环比变化 | | 鸿蒙智行 | 57915 | 89611 | 66% | -35% | | 小米 | 39000 | 50212 | 70% | -22% | | 零跑 | 32059 | 60423 | 27% | -47% | | 理想 | 27668 | 44246 | -8% | -37% | | 蔚来 | 27182 | 48135 | ઠેરિય | -44% | | ...

2月3日，小米产业投资部合伙人潘九堂转发了一份2026年1月新势力销量榜单并表示："小米车主中苹果 和其他品牌手机用户过半，小米的用户们不忠于品牌，忠于科学和理性，车主的真实用户体验和口碑传 播，别人黑不动。此外，1、2、3月都是行业传统淡季，别过度解读销量数据"。 这份销量榜单显示，小米汽车1月销量为39000辆，12月销量为50212辆，环比下降22%。原博主表示， 新势力总体看下来，最抗打的还是小米，尽管舆论压力大，但是粉丝忠诚度也高。 | | | 2026年1月新势力销量(单位:辆) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新势力品牌 | 1月销量 | 12月销量 | 同比变化 | 环比变化 | | 鸿蒙智行 | 57915 | 89611 | 66% | -35% | | 小米 | 39000 | 50212 | 70% | -22% | | 零跑 | 32059 | 60423 | 27% | -47% | | 理想 | 27668 | 44246 | -8% | -37% | | 蔚来 | 27182 | 48135 | ઠેરિય | -44% | | ...

Core Insights - The automotive market in January 2026 shows a clear distinction between traditional domestic brands, which are performing strongly, and new energy vehicle (NEV) startups, which are facing challenges [1][5] Traditional Domestic Brands Performance - Major traditional automakers like SAIC, Geely, and Chery reported over 20% year-on-year sales growth in January 2026, with SAIC leading the market [2][3] - SAIC sold 327,400 vehicles in January, a 23.9% increase year-on-year, with 214,000 units from its own brands, marking a 39.6% increase [2] - Geely's sales reached 270,200 units, a 1% year-on-year increase, with NEV sales contributing significantly [2] - Chery's sales totaled 200,300 units, with exports accounting for 119,600 units, a 48.1% increase year-on-year [3] - GAC Group saw a significant increase in sales, reaching 116,600 units, up 18.47% year-on-year, driven by its new energy and overseas sales [3] New Energy Vehicle Startups Challenges - In contrast, nine major NEV startups experienced a collective decline in sales, with month-on-month drops ranging from 21.2% to 47.0% [5][6] - Despite the downturn, some brands like NIO and Zeekr reported year-on-year growth exceeding 95% [6][7] - The decline in NEV sales is attributed to short-term factors such as policy changes and seasonal demand fluctuations [6][7] - The market is expected to stabilize post-policy transition, with a potential recovery in sales anticipated in February and March 2026 [7] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The automotive industry is witnessing a restructuring of brand rankings, with traditional brands solidifying their positions while new entrants face increasing competition [1][5] - The long-term growth logic of the NEV sector remains intact, with expectations for a gradual recovery as new products are launched and market conditions improve [7]

截至2月2日，国内主流车企2026年1月产销数据陆续披露。整体市场呈现"传统自主强势领跑、新势力普 遍承压"的鲜明格局：上汽、吉利、奇瑞等头部车企销量同比多实现20%以上增长，自主品牌座次因新 能源与出口表现差异出现重构。 1月传统自主车企集团凭借完善的产品矩阵与全球化布局，交出亮眼成绩单，头部阵营座次因各板块增 长动能差异出现显著调整。 具体来看，上汽集团（600104）延续领跑态势，1月实现整车批售32.74万辆，同比增长23.9%，终端零 售36.3万辆，批发与零售双双领跑行业。分板块来看，自主品牌表现尤为突出，销量达21.4万辆，同比 增长39.6%，占集团总销量比重升至65.3%。 其中，上汽乘用车销售7.7万辆，同比增幅达53.8%；上汽通用五菱销售10.5万辆，同比增长37%。新能 源与海外市场成为核心增长引擎，1月新能源汽车销量8.5万辆，同比增长39.7%；海外销量10.5万辆， 同比增长51.7%，仅MG品牌在欧洲市场就交付近2.6万辆，同比增长15%。 吉利汽车以27.02万辆的销量位居次席，同比增长1%，环比增长14%，新能源业务成为重要支撑。1月新 能源汽车销量达12.43万辆，同比 ...

截至2月2日，国内主流车企2026年1月产销数据陆续披露。整体市场呈现"传统自主强势领跑、新势力普 遍承压"的鲜明格局：上汽、吉利、奇瑞等头部车企销量同比多实现20%以上增长，自主品牌座次因新 能源与出口表现差异出现重构。 与此同时，9家主流造车新势力则遭遇集体环比下滑。业内分析指出，短期政策切换、淡季效应等因素 扰动终端，但自主车企核心竞争力持续提升，新势力"马太效应"加剧，行业高质量发展的长期逻辑未 变。 ● 本报记者 龚梦泽 自主品牌座次重构 奇瑞集团凭借出口优势跃居前列，1月销售汽车20.03万辆，其中出口11.96万辆，同比增长48.1%，连续 9个月出口突破10万辆。新能源板块同样稳步推进，1月销量5.21万辆，形成"出口+新能源"双轮驱动格 局。旗下主要品牌中，奇瑞品牌销量13.56万辆，捷途品牌4.27万辆，星途、iCAR、智界品牌分别销售 5276辆、3419辆、4506辆，产品矩阵覆盖从主流到高端的全细分市场。 广汽集团自主板块爆发式增长，推动整体销量达11.66万辆，同比增长18.47%。这是昊铂埃安BU和传祺 BU完成组建后首次披露月度销量，成效立竿见影：昊铂埃安BU销量超2.16万辆 ...

Core Insights - The delivery performance of new car manufacturers in January 2026 showed a significant decline in month-on-month figures, with some brands experiencing drops exceeding 40%, while year-on-year results displayed a polarized performance [2][3] - The competition in the automotive industry is shifting towards technology and ecosystem advantages, necessitating adjustments in product offerings and marketing strategies to meet changing consumer demands [8] Delivery Performance - In January 2026, the overall delivery volume of new car manufacturers decreased, with three companies reporting a month-on-month decline of over 40% and three others over 30% [3] - Hongmeng Zhixing led the market with a delivery volume of 57,915 vehicles, marking a year-on-year increase of 65.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 35.4% [3][4] - Xiaomi and Leap Motor also reported strong growth, while NIO and Zeekr saw significant year-on-year increases, contrasting with the declines faced by Li Auto and Xpeng [2][3] Market Trends - The automotive market is experiencing a "financial war," with various manufacturers introducing low-interest financing options to stimulate sales [5][6] - The long-term growth trajectory of the new energy vehicle market remains positive, with projections indicating a market volume of 19 million units in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.2% and a penetration rate exceeding 54% [7] Competitive Landscape - The competition is evolving from price-based strategies to value-based competition, emphasizing technological innovation, product iteration, and enhanced user experience [7][8] - The differentiation among manufacturers is accelerating, with leading companies expanding their advantages while some brands risk falling behind [7][8] - Future competition will focus on smart driving, intelligent cockpit features, and new power battery technologies, with an emphasis on creating a comprehensive service ecosystem around vehicles [8]

导读：理性看待2026年开年车市，既不必恐慌于单月下滑，也不应盲目乐观于个别高增长。 （文 / 观察者网 周盛明 编辑 / 高莘） 随着春节假期的临近，车企在春节前最后一个完整交付月的销量成绩陆续出炉。从整体来看，2026年1 月的销量呈现出"环比大幅回落，同比稳健上升的特征"。 值得注意的是，由于车企往往选择在年底刺激销量，所以大部分车企2025年12月的销量基数较高。此 外，由于1月为传统汽车销售淡季，叠加新能源汽车购置税补贴退坡、以旧换新和报废补贴规则修改等 政策换挡影响，所以大部分车企出现了"环比下滑"的趋势符合规律。 与此同时，车企同比增长的势头反映出汽车市场基本面依旧稳固，需求虽然放缓但并未衰退。从长期来 看，2026年车企可能会通过金融政策来刺激国内销量，而出海孕育的巨大潜力也正在成为车企获得增量 的重要来源。 传统车企获得出海先机 在出海方面，吉利1月海外销量为6.05万辆，同比大增121%。据悉，吉利汽车预计2026年的海外销量为 64万辆。 2026年1月，上汽集团的销量为32.74万辆，同比增长23.94%，环比下降约18.03%。 在出海领域，上汽表现也较为亮眼：公司1月海外销量为10 ...