[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|电子 2026 年 1 月 26 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] AI 的 Memory 时刻 5 | | | | AI NAND | 供需紧张，涨价仍有弹性 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： [Tabl | 王亮 | 分析师： | 耿正 | 分析师： | 焦鼎 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260519060001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520090002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120003 | | | SFC CE.no: BFS478 | | | | | | | 021-38003658 | | 021-38003660 | | 021-38003658 | | | gfwangliang@gf.com.cn | | gengzheng@gf.com.cn | | jiaoding@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 张大伟 | | | | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523050001 | | | | | | | 02 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a leading position in the domestic silicon component market in China and has entered the supply chains of major storage chip manufacturers and plasma etching equipment manufacturers, emphasizing its unique role in domestic production [1] Group 1: Market Position - The company has achieved a leading position in the Chinese domestic silicon component market [1] - It has entered the supply chains of major manufacturers such as Yangtze Memory Technologies and ChangXin Memory Technologies [1] - The company plays a significant role in promoting domestic production capabilities [1] Group 2: Production and Expansion - The company plans to continuously expand production starting from the third quarter of 2025 based on downstream demand [1] - It aims to maintain the best balance between capacity growth and production yield, following the development trajectory of the past few years [1]

格隆汇1月26日丨神工股份(688233.SH)投资者关系活动记录表显示，目前公司已取得了中国本土硅零部 件市场的领先地位，已进入了长江存储、长鑫存储等中国主流存储芯片制造厂及北方华创、中微公司等 等离子刻蚀设备制造厂的供应链，以高端品类为主，发挥了独特的国产化作用。 从2025年第三季度开始，公司已根据下游需求持续扩产，力争沿着过去数年的发展曲线，确保产能增长 和生产良率的最佳平衡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd. is set to become the first major IPO in the Hong Kong market in 2026, following approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Wuxi Lead Intelligent holds a leading position in the battery manufacturing equipment sector, with a global market share of 15.5% and a dominant 19% share in China [2][8]. - The company plans to replicate the success of its major client, CATL, which saw its stock price nearly double after its secondary listing in Hong Kong [3][5]. Group 2: Business Development - Founded in 2002, the company initially produced capacitor manufacturing equipment before transitioning to lithium battery equipment in 2008, capitalizing on the rapid growth of the lithium battery industry [7][8]. - The company became a core supplier for CATL in 2014, leading to significant revenue growth, with a 70% increase in the following year [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue growth slowed to 19%, with a projected decline of 29% in 2024, reflecting the cyclical nature of the battery industry [8][10]. - By the first three quarters of 2025, revenue rebounded by 15% to 10.4 billion yuan, with net profit nearly doubling to 1.2 billion yuan [10]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The company is focusing on solid-state battery equipment, which offers significant growth potential due to its advantages in safety and energy density [10][11]. - Solid-state battery revenue is expected to contribute between 400 million to 500 million yuan in the first half of 2025 [10]. - The company is also expanding into photovoltaic manufacturing equipment, although this segment currently contributes only about 9% to total revenue [10][11]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - In the battery equipment sector, Wuxi Lead faces competition from companies like Shenzhen Yinghe Technology, Zhejiang Hanke Technology, and Guangdong Liyuanheng [11]. - The photovoltaic equipment market is even more competitive, with larger players such as Northern Huachuang and Shenzhen Jiejia Weichuang [11]. Group 6: Strategic Considerations - The company must carefully manage capital allocation and maintain financial flexibility to navigate the cyclical nature of the battery and photovoltaic industries [11].

Summary of Conference Call on China's Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE) Imports Industry Overview - **Industry**: Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE) - **Key Focus**: China's SPE imports, particularly lithography equipment, and their implications for capacity expansion in tier-1 cities Key Points SPE Import Trends - China's SPE imports rebounded significantly in December 2025, increasing by **95% MoM** but down **9% YoY** from the previous year's high base due to geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Total SPE imports for Q4 2025 were **US$9.3 billion**, a **1% decrease** from the previous quarter, while annual imports for 2025 reached **US$34.7 billion**, marking a **3% increase** YoY [1] Lithography Equipment Insights - Lithography imports surged to **US$2.3 billion** in December 2025, representing a **59% increase YoY** and **222% increase MoM**, accounting for **55%** of total SPE imports [2][1] - The average cost per unit of lithography equipment imported was **US$75 million** for Shanghai, **US$95 million** for Beijing, and **US$46 million** for Guangdong, indicating strong demand in these regions [3] Regional Performance - The Netherlands emerged as the top exporter of SPE to China in December 2025, while imports from Japan continued to decline, down **38% YoY** [2] - Major cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangdong showed robust lithography import values, suggesting accelerated capacity expansion by local fabs such as SMIC and Hua Hong [3] Capital Expenditure (Capex) Outlook - Evidence suggests solid capex demand in tier-1 cities, supported by local government plans to invest in the semiconductor and AI industries [3] - Expectations for China's WFE spending in 2026 could exceed previous estimates, with projected growth of **10% YoY** driven by advanced logic and memory capacity expansion projects [4] Investment Recommendations - Top investment picks include **NAURA** (rated Buy) and **ACMR Shanghai** [4] Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: Include potential worsening macroeconomic conditions, intensified geopolitical tensions, and slower-than-expected R&D progress [52] - **Upside Risks**: Include faster-than-expected recovery in end-demand and potential technological breakthroughs by China's WFE vendors [53] Government Initiatives - The 15th Five-Year Plans from major provinces emphasize commitments to enhancing semiconductor capabilities and AI development, which may positively impact WFE demand in the long term [51] Additional Insights - The strong performance of lithography imports indicates a shift in spending patterns, with lithography now accounting for a significantly higher percentage of total WFE spending than the historical norm of **20-25%** [2] - The average selling price (ASP) of lithography units reflects the high value and demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing capabilities in China [3] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends from the conference call regarding China's semiconductor production equipment imports and the broader implications for the industry.

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry in Greater China is experiencing a structural shift towards local equipment driven by strategic localization and domestic AI demand. Memory expansion may moderate temporarily in the first half of 2026, but breakthroughs in critical tools and repatriation of AI demand are expected to support this shift [1][4]. Key Insights Market Growth Projections - The 2026 wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) market growth forecast for China has been raised to 4% year-over-year (Y/Y), reaching approximately US$41 billion, driven by robust capital expenditures (capex) for domestic memory and advanced-node capacity [2][9]. - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 16% Y/Y, primarily due to demand from DRAM and TSMC [2]. Memory Sector Developments - ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) plans to invest approximately Rmb34.5 billion (US$4.9 billion) over three years, aiming for a capacity addition of around 50,000 wafers per month (wpm) [2]. - CXMT is focusing on higher localization for its Gen4B (1z node) to mitigate risks from restricted access to US equipment, with phased procurement expected to accelerate once pilot-line yields stabilize [2][20]. Advanced Node Equipment - Domestic AI chip designers are repatriating supply chains to mainland China, leading to robust demand for high-performance AI computing over the next two years. Advanced-node equipment localization remains below 10%, but local vendors like Naura and AMEC are making significant progress in critical bottleneck tools [3][10]. Mature Node Market Dynamics - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of mature-node foundry capex in China, with some government-backed projects facing utilization pressure amid soft demand. However, domestic players are well-positioned to consolidate market share due to rapid technical progress and aggressive pricing [4]. Stock Implications - Recommendations include maintaining an "Overweight" (OW) rating on Naura, AMEC, and ACMR, with revised price targets reflecting expected growth in the semiconductor equipment sector [4][15][16]. - **Naura**: Price target raised to Rmb550 from Rmb480, with expected EPS growth of 6% and 7% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [15][69]. - **AMEC**: Price target increased to Rmb400 from Rmb320, with anticipated EPS growth of 12% and 18% for 2026 and 2027 [16]. - **ACMR**: Price target raised to US$58 from US$40, with projected revenue growth driven by China's memory capacity ramp [16]. Additional Insights - The localization rate for advanced-node manufacturing in China is expected to remain low, with domestic WFE players expanding their portfolios to cover more wafer processes [11][34]. - The supply chain for leading-edge equipment is adapting, with Japanese and domestic alternatives covering most tool categories, reducing reliance on US-origin equipment [10][34]. - The IPO filings of CXMT and YMTC are anticipated to strengthen their capital positions, supporting long-term capacity expansion [19][20]. Conclusion The Greater China semiconductor industry is poised for growth driven by localization efforts and increasing domestic demand for AI and memory technologies. Key players are expected to benefit from these trends, with stock recommendations reflecting positive outlooks based on anticipated market dynamics and company performance.

Summary of DeepSeek Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: DeepSeek - **Industry**: Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Semiconductor Equipment in China Key Points and Arguments 1. **Engram Module Launch**: DeepSeek has introduced the Engram module, which decouples storage from computation, reducing reliance on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and lowering infrastructure costs. This innovation aims to alleviate bottlenecks in AI computing in China and suggests that future AI competition may focus on more efficient hybrid architectures rather than larger models [1][2][3] 2. **Efficiency Improvements**: The Engram module enhances the efficiency of large language models by implementing "conditional memory," which allows for better utilization of GPU resources. This decoupling of static memory from computation is expected to improve the performance of AI systems while reducing the need for expensive HBM [1][9][10] 3. **Infrastructure Cost Dynamics**: The findings indicate that infrastructure costs may shift from GPU to storage, as medium computational configurations may offer better cost-effectiveness than pure GPU expansions. The AI inference capability is expected to improve beyond knowledge growth, highlighting the importance of storage value beyond just computation [2][3][10] 4. **Next Generation Model**: DeepSeek's upcoming V4 model will utilize the Engram memory architecture, potentially achieving significant advancements in code generation and inference. The model is expected to run on consumer-grade hardware, such as the RTX 5090, and will be closely monitored for its performance against key benchmarks [2][3][10] 5. **Investment Opportunities**: The report highlights potential investment opportunities in the Chinese semiconductor equipment sector, particularly focusing on companies like Northern Huachuang (target price: RMB 514.2), Zhongwei Company (target price: RMB 364.32), and Changdian Technology (target price: RMB 49.49) [3][24][25] Additional Important Insights 1. **Performance Comparison**: Despite facing stricter constraints in advanced computing and hardware acquisition, Chinese AI models have rapidly closed the performance gap with leading models like ChatGPT 5.2. This progress is attributed to a focus on efficiency-driven innovations rather than sheer computational expansion [8][14] 2. **Long-term Implications**: The architecture developed by DeepSeek may lead to a more cost-effective, scalable, and adaptable AI ecosystem in China, potentially impacting global competitors by reducing the marginal costs of high-level intelligence and decreasing reliance on unlimited computational expansion [14][16] 3. **Engram's Unique Approach**: Engram's design allows for a more efficient memory usage model, significantly lowering the demand for HBM. This approach enhances the core transformer model without increasing FLOP or parameter scale, thereby improving overall system efficiency [11][18] 4. **Testing Results**: Tests on a 27 billion parameter model have shown that Engram outperforms in several benchmark tests, particularly in long-context processing, which is crucial for enhancing AI practicality [16][18] 5. **Strategic Positioning**: DeepSeek's advancements represent a strategic response to geopolitical and supply chain constraints, emphasizing algorithmic and system-level innovations over direct hardware competition [16][18] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding DeepSeek's innovations, market positioning, and the broader implications for the AI and semiconductor industries in China.

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|电子 2026 年 1 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] AI 的 Memory 时刻 4 | | | AI DRAM | | 需求旺盛，行业供需紧张有望延续 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tabl 分析师： | 王亮 | 分析师： 耿正 | | 分析师： 焦鼎 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260519060001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520090002 | SAC 执证号：S0260522120003 | | | SFC CE.no: BFS478 | | | | | | 021-38003658 | | 021-38003660 | 021-38003658 | | | gfwangliang@gf.com.cn | | gengzheng@gf.com.cn | jiaoding@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 张大伟 | | | | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523050001 | | | | | | 021-38003657 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating an expectation of stock performance exceeding the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [31]. Core Insights - The demand for CPU is increasing due to AI agents, driven by three main factors: increased application call volume, orchestration becoming a bottleneck, and elevated overhead from sandbox isolation [2][11]. - The CPU ratio is expected to rise, with projections indicating that by Q2 2026, the CPU ratio per MW of GPU will increase from below 10% to 15% [2][17]. - There is significant growth potential in memory modules and interface chips, with a shift from traditional RDIMM to MRDIMM expected to enhance performance and capacity [2][19]. - The value of AI memory is transitioning from a cost item to an asset item, highlighting the increasing importance of related upstream infrastructure [2][25]. Summary by Sections AI Agent's Impact on CPU Demand - AI agents are driving a substantial increase in CPU demand due to higher application call volumes, orchestration challenges, and increased overhead from sandboxing [2][11]. Increasing CPU Ratio - Current estimates suggest that the CPU ratio per MW of GPU will rise to 15% by Q2 2026, with significant implications for the overall demand for CPUs in AI clusters [2][17]. Expanding Memory and Interface Chip Market - The transition to MRDIMM solutions is expected to significantly enhance bandwidth and capacity, creating opportunities in the memory and interface chip markets [2][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of AI memory as a foundational capability for AI applications, recommending a focus on key beneficiaries within the industry chain [2][25].

AI基金宏利转型机遇股票A（000828）披露2025年四季报，第四季度基金利润6533.12万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.099元。报告期内，基金净值增长 率为2.65%，截至四季度末，基金规模为27.59亿元。 该基金属于标准股票型基金，长期投资于TMT股票。截至1月22日，单位净值为4.911元。基金经理是孟杰，目前管理7只基金。其中，截至1月22日，宏利转 型机遇股票A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达69.23%；宏利行业精选混合A最低，为39.2%。 基金管理人在四季报中表示，科技相关行业经历了 2025 年全年的大幅上涨仍具备投资机会。人工智能模型仍在加速迭代，无论国内还是海外的互联网巨头 都将继续高额投入，算力产业链仍然有很好的投资机会。 手机、汽车、智能家居等端侧的智能化将成为持续的产业趋势，其中苹果是最具代表性的端侧产品，拥有从芯片设计到完善系统的良好生态，将开启又一轮 创新周期，国内产业链公司有望充分受益。先进逻辑及存储扩产拉动，国内晶圆厂仍然会持续加大资本支出，相关产业链公司订单有望持续增长。 截至1月22日，宏利转型机遇股票A近三个月复权单位净值增长率为13.16%，位于同类可比基 ...