2026 年度策略会年度策略报告巡礼之金融篇 20251217 摘要 2025 年证券板块内部出现分化，A 股广发证券表现最佳，H 股广发证券 涨幅显著，而部分股票如国联民生、财富趋势、招商证券则出现下跌， 反映市场对不同券商的业绩和发展前景存在差异化预期。 2026 年证券行业展望：各类资金持续入市，推动成交量维持高位；经 纪业务受益于客户保证金扩张和线上获客能力提升；两融余额预计提升， 增加利润贡献；资管业务通过丰富投资策略和向主动管理转型提升业绩。 保险资金入市方面，大型国有保险公司新增保费的 30%需投资股票，居 民存款搬家潜力巨大，有望推动增量资金入市。经纪业务收入与利润贡 献预计保持重要地位，线上化、AI 化趋势明显。两融余额持续增长，资 管业务需通过丰富投资策略及向主动管理转型来提升业绩。 2025 年前三季度港股日均成交额同比增长显著，南向资金占比提升， 港股 IPO 发行大幅增长，A 股上市公司赴港二次 IPO 占比超 70%。预计 港股市场发行将持续扩张，美联储降息将保持港股流动性充裕。 2025 年 A 股保险股表现平稳，港股保险股超额收益显著，受顺周期属 性和高估值性价比驱动。新华保险 ...

Core Conclusions - The report highlights the potential impact of Japan's interest rate hike on global liquidity, suggesting that while there are concerns, the actual shock may be limited due to previous adjustments in the market [7][8][9] - The medical device and healthcare sectors are expected to rebound, driven by innovation and international expansion, despite current pressures from macroeconomic factors [2][14] - The energy storage industry is poised for growth, supported by favorable policies and increasing demand, with key players identified for investment [3][18][19] Group 1: Strategy and Market Outlook - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for AH shares, with strategic allocations in government bonds and gold, while US stocks and bonds may remain volatile [1][13] - Japan's potential interest rate hike is seen as a catalyst for global liquidity concerns, but the actual impact may be mitigated by prior market adjustments and the current economic environment [7][8][9] Group 2: Medical Device and Healthcare Sector - The medical device sector is currently undervalued, with significant potential for recovery driven by innovation and government support for healthcare services [2][14] - Key areas of focus include domestic device upgrades, international market expansion, and the recovery of hospital services, with specific recommendations for investment in leading companies [14][15][16] Group 3: Energy Storage Industry - The energy storage sector is experiencing robust growth, with a projected global installed capacity of 329 GWh by 2025, reflecting an 87% year-on-year increase [19] - Key recommendations include investing in leading battery manufacturers and energy storage system providers, as demand continues to outpace supply [20][19] Group 4: Real Estate Market Analysis - The real estate market is facing challenges, with a notable decline in sales volume and prices, indicating ongoing pressure in the sector [21][22] - The report anticipates a continued low-level fluctuation in the market, with potential policy adjustments expected after the Spring Festival [23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The central economic work conference emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market, leading to increased market expectations for policy changes. It is deemed necessary to lower mortgage rates to enhance home buying attractiveness, with a focus on subsequent changes in mortgage rates [2][3] - The current domestic adjustment in volume and price is approaching that of previous overseas cycles, with the adjustment duration slightly shorter than overseas. A simple comparison suggests that the industry may reach a bottom and stabilize between the second half of 2026 and 2027 [2] - The decline in Hong Kong's Hibor in Q2 2025 is expected to lead to a decrease in mortgage rates, which could be a crucial factor for regional market stabilization. If mortgage rates in 2026 are lowered more than expected, it may catalyze a similar recovery as seen in Hong Kong [2] - Investment recommendations focus on three main lines: 1) Real estate companies with light historical burdens and strong product capabilities, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development, are expected to benefit from the "good housing" initiative; 2) Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from the stabilization of the Hong Kong market; 3) Companies with stable cash flow and dividends, such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Poly Property [2] Policy Summary - The pilot program for commercial real estate REITs has been initiated, expanding the scope to include urban renewal facilities, hotels, and sports venues, aiding in the transformation of the real estate sector [3][5] - The central economic work conference aims to stabilize the real estate market and reduce inventory, with a focus on boosting residents' willingness to purchase homes. It is expected that mortgage rate reductions and the loosening of housing restrictions will continue [5][6] Financial Summary - In November 2025, the M2 growth rate was 8%, with a slight decline in the growth rate compared to the previous month. The social financing stock growth rate remained stable at 8.5% [12] - The new personal housing loan rate in Q3 2025 was 3.07%, indicating potential room for further mortgage rate reductions [16] Market Performance - In November, the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 50 key cities decreased by 43.1% year-on-year, while the average daily transaction volume of second-hand homes in 20 key cities decreased by 27.8% year-on-year [20] - The average land supply in 100 cities in November was 31 million square meters, a 130% increase month-on-month, while the average transaction area was 12 million square meters, showing a slight decrease [27] Company Performance - In November 2025, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies decreased by 36.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative sales amount decline of 18.8% for the first 11 months [35] - The average land acquisition sales ratio for the top 50 real estate companies was 19% for sales amount and 31% for sales area, both showing a decrease compared to the previous month [39] Stock Market Performance - The real estate sector index fell by 2.81% in November, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 2.46%. As of December 15, 2025, the real estate sector's PE (TTM) was 58.54 times, placing it in the 94.24 percentile of the past five years [40][43]

2025 年 12 月 17 日 开源晨会 1217 ——晨会纪要 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 沪深300 创业板指 晨 会 纪 数据来源：聚源 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.316 | | 美容护理 | 0.664 | | 社会服务 | 0.126 | | 食品饮料 | -0.018 | | 交通运输 | -0.421 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 通信 | -2.952 | | 综合 | -2.81 | | 有色金属 | -2.809 | | 电力设备 | -2.658 | | 传媒 | -2.414 | 数据来源：聚源 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【宏观经济】黄金价格再度逼近历史最高点——宏观经济专题-20251216 供需：建筑开工维持弱势，工业开工边际走弱，需求走弱 1.建筑开工：开工率维持历史 ...

Core Viewpoint - New City Holdings announced that its controlling shareholder, Fuyou Development Group Co., Ltd., has pledged part of its shares, totaling 34,000,000 shares, as of December 16, 2025 [2] Group 1 - The pledged shares represent a significant portion of the company's equity held by the controlling shareholder [2] - The announcement was made on the evening of December 16, indicating a potential shift in shareholder dynamics [2] - The pledge of shares may impact investor sentiment and market perception of the company's stability [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market benchmark in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued decline in real estate sales, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7.8% in sales area and 11.1% in sales revenue for the first eleven months of 2025 [2][11]. - The report notes that the decline in real estate investment has widened, with a 15.9% year-on-year decrease in development investment, and a 20.5% drop in new construction area [3][19]. - Funding for real estate has also decreased, with total funds available to developers down by 11.9% year-on-year, and domestic loans showing a negative year-on-year change of 2.5% [4][21]. - The report emphasizes the need for policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for new policies to be introduced in 2026 to boost demand [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first eleven months of 2025, the total sales area reached 790 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 7.8%. The sales revenue amounted to 7.5 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year decrease [2][11]. - In November 2025 alone, the sales area was 67 million square meters, down 17.3% year-on-year, while sales revenue was 610 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [2]. Investment Data - Real estate development investment totaled 7.9 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025, down 15.9% year-on-year. The new construction area was 530 million square meters, reflecting a 20.5% decline [3][19]. - The construction area was 6.56 billion square meters, down 9.4% year-on-year, and the completed area was 390 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year [3][21]. Funding Data - The total funds available to real estate companies were 8.5 trillion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year. Domestic loans accounted for 1.3 trillion yuan, showing a 2.5% decline [4][21]. - Self-raised funds were 3.1 trillion yuan, down 11.9%, and personal mortgage loans were 1.2 trillion yuan, down 15.1% [4]. Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market as a key task for 2026, with potential policies to reduce housing costs and stimulate demand [5]. - The report suggests focusing on three areas for investment: commercial real estate, second-hand brokerage, and property services, along with quality developers [5].

新城控股集团股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股权质押的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 截至公告披露日，新城控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"本公司"、 "公司"）控股股东富域发展集团有限公司（以下简称"富域发展"）持有 本公司股份为1,378,000,000股，占公司总股本的61.09%，其中被质押的股 份累计312,055,500股，占其持有公司股本的22.65%。 一、上市公司股份质押 公司于2025年12月16日接到富域发展的通知，获悉其所持有本公司的部分股份 被质押，具体事项如下： 股东 名称 是否为 控股股 东 本次质押股 数 是否为 限售股 是否补 充质押 质押起始 日 质押到期 日 质权人 占其所 持股份 比例 （%） 占公司 总股本 比例 （%） 股份质 押用途 富域 发展 是 34,000,000 否 否 2025 年 12 月 15 日 2027 年 12 月 17 日（具体 以实际办 理日为 准） 渤海国际信 托股份有限 公司 2.47 1.51 为子公 司融资 提供担 ...

截至发稿，新城控股市值为317亿元。 每经AI快讯，新城控股（SH 601155，收盘价：14.06元）12月16日晚间发布公告称，公司于2025年12月 16日接到富域发展的通知，获悉其所持有本公司的部分股份被质押，本次质押股份数量为3400万股。截 至本公告日，富域发展累计质押股数约为3.12亿股，占其所持股份比例为22.65%。常州德润累计质押股 数为6000万股，占其所持股份比例为43.54%。 2025年1至6月份，新城控股的营业收入构成为：房地产开发销售占比68.63%，物业出租占比29.06%， 其他业务占比2.31%。 （记者 曾健辉） 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——中标企业频频弃标 大型医疗设备采购有何难言之隐？ ...

新城控股公告，公司控股股东富域发展质押3400万公司股份，占其所持股份比例为2.47%，占公司总股 本比例为1.51%。质押开始日为2025年12月15日，质押用途为为子公司融资提供担保。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share real estate sector has experienced a significant rally, reflecting market confidence in policy support and structural opportunities within the industry [1] Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, focusing on "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply" [1] - The conference also highlighted the importance of deepening housing provident fund reforms as a key measure to stabilize the market, with over 260 related policies introduced since 2025 [2] - The financing environment is showing signs of improvement, with a narrowing decline in domestic loans to 2.5%, despite a year-on-year drop of 11.9% in funds available to real estate developers [2] Group 2: Industry Trends and Transformations - The concept of "good housing" was introduced, focusing on safety, sustainability, and smart attributes to meet diverse needs, indicating a shift towards refined construction practices [3] - The demand for real estate services is expected to grow due to the activation of existing housing transactions and quality improvement needs, benefiting companies like World Union [4] - The construction and building materials sector is anticipated to see demand upgrades driven by the "good housing" initiative and urban renewal projects, positively impacting orders for related materials [4] Group 3: Benefiting Sectors - The real estate service sector is likely to benefit from the ongoing demand for housing brokerage and property management services, particularly as policies shift towards converting existing housing into affordable options [4] - The home appliance and furniture sectors are expected to experience growth due to the rising demand for improved living quality, with a notable increase in the share of smart and elderly-friendly products [4]