Core Points - U.S. President Donald Trump is testing political diplomacy with India as Sergio Gor becomes the new ambassador amid trade tensions and Russian oil imports affecting bilateral relations [1][2] - Trump indicated that the U.S. may lower tariffs on Indian goods due to a reduction in Russian oil imports, suggesting progress towards a trade deal [2] - Despite Trump's comments, data from Kpler shows that India's imports of Russian crude remained stable at 1.59 million barrels per day in October, indicating that the situation may not be as favorable as suggested [3] Group 1: Diplomatic Relations - Gor's priorities include promoting investment in U.S. industries, increasing American energy exports, and expanding security cooperation with India [4] - Gor's arrival in New Delhi and discussions with Prime Minister Modi focused on defense, trade, technology, and the importance of critical minerals for both nations [5] - The approach taken by Gor represents a shift towards faster communication with India, potentially bypassing traditional diplomatic channels [5] Group 2: Trade and Economic Implications - The potential lowering of tariffs on Indian goods is linked to the reduction of Russian oil imports, which have been a point of contention in U.S.-India trade relations [2] - The appointment of a "political" ambassador like Gor may expedite trade negotiations, but it also introduces risks of volatility in ties if public opinion shifts in either country [6]

Group 1 - President Trump claims that Indian Prime Minister Modi has promised to stop purchasing Russian oil, warning of "huge" tariffs if this commitment is not fulfilled [1] - The issue of Russian oil purchases has been a core point of contention in the lengthy US-India trade negotiations, with Trump's 50% tariffs on Indian goods partly aimed at countering India's procurement of Russian oil [1] - Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Western countries ceased purchasing Russian oil, leading India to become the largest buyer of discounted Russian oil [1] Group 2 - Indian refining companies have placed oil orders for November shipments, with some expected to arrive in December, indicating that any reduction in oil imports may not be reflected until December or January [2] - Commodity data company Kpler estimates that due to increased Russian oil exports following drone attacks on Russian refineries, India's imports of Russian oil are expected to rise by approximately 20% this month, reaching 1.9 million barrels per day [2]

Crude oil imports into China last month went up by 3.9% on September 2024, flowing at an average daily rate of some 11.5 million barrels, Reuters calculated, citing official customs data from Beijing. The rise in crude imports was accompanied by an increase in refinery processing rates to 81.05%, which was the highest since the start of the year for state refiners. Independents, commonly called teapots by the media, also raised their utilization rate, to some 62%. Yet import rates were lower on the month ...

Core Insights - The event highlighted the growing importance of the global oil market and the role of Chinese derivatives in it [1][3] - The participation of over 110 representatives from more than 40 major oil companies and financial institutions indicates strong interest and engagement in the sector [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The Asia-Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) hosted a global oil market seminar in Singapore, organized by Galaxy Futures, Galaxy Overseas, and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange [1] - This marks the second consecutive year that Galaxy Futures has held an in-depth oil market conference in Singapore [1] Group 2: Key Discussions - Experts discussed opportunities in the Chinese derivatives market, macroeconomic trends between China and the U.S., and the global oil market landscape [3] - Presentations included insights on the stable operation of Shanghai crude oil futures and the progress of natural gas futures listings [3] - A macroeconomic analysis was provided regarding the U.S.-China tariff negotiations and investment outlook [3] Group 3: Company Positioning - Galaxy Futures, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Galaxy Securities, has been engaged in international business since 2010 and has maintained a leading position in the industry since the launch of crude oil futures in 2018 [4] - The company is enhancing its technology, trading, delivery, and risk control to meet the diverse needs of overseas clients [4] - Future plans include providing cross-border services and solutions for both Chinese and global markets, along with educational initiatives to inform foreign investors about the Chinese futures market [4]

Core Insights - The arbitrage opportunity for U.S. crude oil sold in Asia is diminishing due to rising tanker rates and increasing WTI prices [1][4] - The cost of transporting crude from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia has reached $1.75 per barrel, which is significant enough to close the arbitrage window [2] - Current WTI prices are hovering around $62 per barrel, influenced by external factors such as the resumption of exports from northern Iraqi fields [3] Group 1: Tanker Rates and Demand - Very Large Crude Carrier rates surged to $12.5 million last week, the highest since March 2023, driven by increased demand from Asian buyers [1] - Although rates have slightly decreased to $12 million, they remain high enough to dampen interest in U.S. crude [1] Group 2: Export Trends - U.S. oil exports to Asia are projected to rise, with South Korea and India being the largest buyers, averaging around 135 million barrels daily for September [4] - There is potential for this export rate to increase further, although current WTI premiums and freight costs are challenging the U.S.-Asia arbitrage for November trade [4] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - Some analysts anticipate a decline in prices that could reopen the arbitrage window, citing marginal WTI support and average supply as factors likely to lower rates [5]

Core Viewpoint - India's purchase of low-cost Russian energy is crucial for its economic development, and no country can obstruct this process. India has adhered to all international rules and played a key role in preventing a surge in international oil prices following the outbreak of the Ukraine war [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Strategy - Despite an overall decline in oil imports by 4% in August, India has increased its procurement of Russian crude oil, reaching over 1.6 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, marking a historical high [4]. - The share of Russian oil in India's total oil imports rose from 33% to 37% in August, indicating a pragmatic shift in India's energy strategy [4]. - The proportion of Russian crude oil in India's imports is approaching 40%, meaning nearly four out of every ten barrels imported by India come from Russia [4]. Group 2: Economic Calculations - The decline in total oil imports coincides with a significant increase in Russian oil purchases, reflecting India's precise calculations regarding national economic interests [7]. - India's Finance Minister stated that decisions regarding oil procurement will be based on what best suits the country's needs, emphasizing that crude oil constitutes the largest share of India's import expenditure [7]. - The sharp increase in Russian oil imports from less than 1% before the conflict to nearly 40% now positions India as the largest maritime buyer of Russian crude oil [7]. Group 3: International Relations and Reactions - India's strategic shift has provoked a strong reaction from the United States, which has imposed a 25% punitive tariff on India, accusing it of acting as a "money laundering channel" for the Kremlin [8][10]. - Indian officials have defended their actions, asserting that all transactions are conducted through legal channels and contribute to market stability [10]. - India's leaders have expressed dissatisfaction with the sanctions but are preparing to mitigate their impact through reforms and support measures for affected businesses [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - As winter energy demand peaks, India's reliance on Russian crude oil is expected to continue, reflecting the growing autonomy and voice of emerging market countries in international affairs [11].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, prompting India to increase its oil imports from Russia by 10% to 20% in September, equating to an additional 150,000 to 300,000 barrels per day [1][6]. Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Relations - The U.S. aimed to deter countries from engaging in energy trade with Russia by imposing heavy tariffs on India, which included a 25% base tax followed by an additional 25% due to India's oil imports from Russia [1][5]. - Despite U.S. pressure, Indian Prime Minister Modi ignored multiple calls from Trump urging concessions, signaling a strong stance against U.S. demands [3][5]. Group 2: India's Response and Strategy - India is not only maintaining but also increasing its oil imports from Russia, with current daily imports at 1.5 million barrels, expected to rise to 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels in September [6]. - The Indian government is taking measures to protect local interests, including suspending certain import tariffs and accelerating trade negotiations with other countries to reduce reliance on the U.S. market [3][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - India's actions reflect a strategic calculation, recognizing its importance in the U.S. global energy strategy while prioritizing its national interests over U.S. pressures [5][6]. - The Indian government has publicly stated that it will not sacrifice its own interests for U.S. benefits, emphasizing the cost-effectiveness and stable supply of Russian oil [5][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Russian oil constitutes about 40% of India's total crude imports, making India the largest buyer of Russian seaborne oil, which significantly boosts the profitability of Indian refineries [6]. - Analysts suggest that unless a global ban is implemented, Russian oil will remain entrenched in the Indian market, with potential price spikes if India reduces its purchases [6][8].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - This year, the peak - season consumption in the US has no obvious improvement. The market has digested the US interest - rate cut expectation to some extent. There is no driving force for oil prices, which are expected to continue oscillating at the bottom and may fall again in the medium term [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI main contract: opened at 64.75 dollars/barrel, closed at 63.31 dollars/barrel, with a high of 64.76 dollars/barrel, a low of 63.13 dollars/barrel, a decline of 2.3%, and a trading volume of 18.38 million barrels [6] - Brent main contract: opened at 68.14 dollars/barrel, closed at 66.69 dollars/barrel, with a high of 68.16 dollars/barrel, a low of 66.6 dollars/barrel, a decline of 2.24%, and a trading volume of 28.51 million barrels [6] - SC main contract: opened at 491.7 yuan/barrel, closed at 479.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 493.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 478 yuan/barrel, a decline of 3.62%, and a trading volume of 12.54 million barrels [6] - As of the week ending on the 15th, US crude inventories declined more than expected due to the recovery of crude exports, which reached 4.37 million barrels per day, a new high since April this year. However, refined - oil consumption remained weak, with gasoline apparent demand at 8.842 million barrels per day, showing a decline both year - on - year and month - on - month. Whether diesel demand can maintain its strength needs further attention [6] Group 5: Industry News - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 due to an expanding oil surplus next year [8] - Facing approaching US tariffs, India plans to reduce Russian oil purchases [8] - Russia plans to increase oil exports by 200,000 barrels per day in August despite refinery shutdowns, but there is uncertainty in the export plan due to continuous drone attacks and maintenance work [8] - Kpler data shows that Iran's average daily crude exports in August are about 1.5 million barrels, down from 1.7 million barrels during March - May [8] - According to Reuters' calculation, Ukrainian attacks have disrupted at least 17% of Russia's refining capacity [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including WTI spot price, Oman spot price, Brent fund net position, Dtd Brent price, etc., with data sources from wind, CFTC, Bloomberg, and EIA [11][13][14]

美印关税谈判的前景，不容乐观！ 今年早些时候，由于印度不同意开放其庞大的农业和乳制品市场，印美贸易谈判破裂。这两大经济体之 间的双边贸易额超过1900亿美元。 再过几天，美国向印度大幅加征的额外关税，即将正式生效。不过，印度外长8月23日强硬表态称，与 美国的贸易谈判仍在继续，但印度有需要坚守的底线。此前，有外媒报道称，美国贸易谈判代表团原定 于8月25日至29日前往新德里的访问已经取消，这使得美国对印关税可能下调或推迟的希望进一步破 灭。 在美国关税压力加剧之际，印度总理莫迪日前宣布，将下调日常消费品的商品与服务税(GST)，以提振 印度国内需求。 不过，受关税打压，近期市场对印度大中型企业的预期收益下调，大量外资从印度股市撤出。美国银行 本月发布的一项调查显示，约30%的受访基金经理近期减持了印度股票，印度股市受青睐程度在亚洲各 市场中垫底。 新关税即将生效，印度外长强硬表态 美国总统特朗普8月6日签署行政令，以印度"用直接或间接方式进口俄罗斯石油"为由，对印度输美产品 征收额外的25%关税，自8月27日起正式生效。根据特朗普7月31日签署的行政令，美国从8月7日开始对 印度输美商品征收25%的关税。与8 ...

Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S. has increased tariffs on India, raising them to 50% due to India's continued import of Russian oil, which has surged to 42% of its oil imports from nearly zero before the Ukraine conflict [3] - India has begun to reduce its reliance on Russian oil, with imports dropping from an average of 1.18 million barrels per day to 400,000 barrels per day, a reduction of nearly two-thirds [3] - India has suspended an 11% tariff on U.S. cotton imports until September 30, signaling a willingness to ease agricultural tariff disputes [5] Group 2: Brazil's Position - Brazil is in a trade deficit with the U.S., and the imposition of tariffs may lead to retaliatory measures from Brazil, as indicated by President Lula's statements [5] - Brazil has requested consultations with the WTO regarding the tariffs and has received a formal response from the U.S. expressing willingness to negotiate [5] - If no agreement is reached, prices for Brazilian exports like coffee and beef may rise, impacting U.S. consumer purchasing power [5] Group 3: Economic Impact on Other Regions - The European Central Bank has expressed concerns about trade uncertainties affecting key sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with a 15% tariff potentially pressuring EU economic growth [7] - Japan's exports fell by 2.6% in July, with a significant drop of 9.4% to North America, particularly in the automotive sector, which saw a 28.4% decline [7] - Despite reaching an agreement to lower tariffs on Japanese automobiles to 15%, the effective date remains unclear, raising concerns about Japan's economic stability [7]