银河海外首席执行官Carol Fong与上海国际能源交易中心新加坡首席代表洪珺致开幕辞。上海国际能源交易中心高级经理洪 加其分享了上海原油期货的稳健运行和天然气期货上市进展。银河期货高级分析师赵梓彤就"关税博弈下的中美经济展望与 投资前瞻"作宏观解读。Rystad Energy大宗商品市场副总监叶霖分享全球石油市场基本面，Kpler商品研究总监Jonathan Leitch 探讨原油贸易流向与新机遇。银河期货机构业务总部副总经理李耀华详细介绍了银河油气业务服务及四季度策略展望。 作为银河证券全资子公司，银河期货自2010年开展国际业务，2018年原油期货上市后，代理多家境内外大型石油公司参与交 易与交割，业务规模持续处于行业领先地位。伴随国际化品种不断丰富和境外客户参与度提升，公司同步升级技术、交易、 交割、风控等方面持续优化，全面满足海外客户多样化需求。 未来，银河期货将协同银河海外等体系内平台，提供多元跨境服务，涵盖中国市场解决方案（如国际化特定品种、QFII、北 向收益互换等）及全球市场解决方案（如全球经纪、南向收益互换、QD服务等），并通过各类讲座、论坛向境外投资者传 递中国期货市场的最新动态与发展机 ...

Core Insights - China's futures market is becoming a significant global player, with its crude oil futures market ranking among the top three worldwide and serving as a crucial pricing reference in the Asia-Pacific region [1][2] - The market is experiencing a dual approach of "bringing in" and "going out," with a notable increase in foreign participation and the establishment of overseas subsidiaries by Chinese futures companies [2][4] - The integration of Chinese futures prices into global trade is enhancing the pricing power of Chinese enterprises, allowing them to optimize international trade experiences [4][5] Market Scale and Internationalization - China's commodity futures trading volume accounts for over 60% of the global total, with 16 out of the 20 largest agricultural futures contracts being Chinese [2][6] - The number of new clients in the futures market increased by 410,000 in the first half of the year, with active traders from 39 countries and regions [2][6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has removed foreign ownership limits for futures companies, creating a more transparent and stable environment for foreign investors [2][6] Pricing Influence and Risk Management - Chinese futures prices are increasingly being used as benchmarks in international trade, with significant products like PTA and rubber being referenced globally [6][7] - Companies are leveraging futures pricing to enhance their bargaining power, stabilize raw material costs, and improve the efficiency of international deliveries [4][5] - The introduction of risk management tools and pricing mechanisms has allowed companies to expand into emerging markets with greater confidence [5][7] Future Outlook - The Chinese futures market is expected to continue expanding its product offerings and reducing institutional costs for foreign investors, while enhancing cross-border trading efficiency [8] - Technological advancements will play a key role in improving risk management and transaction efficiency in cross-border trading [8]

Core Insights - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum highlighted the current state of China's futures market, emphasizing its open structure and international participation [1][2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) reported that the futures market has established three main modes of international openness: direct openness, Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFI) participation, and settlement price authorization [1] Group 1: Market Structure and Participation - China's futures market has 24 internationalized products covering key categories such as crude oil, iron ore, and PTA, attracting over 1,000 foreign traders from 40 countries and regions [1] - A total of 91 futures and options products are included in the QFI trading scope, indicating a significant level of foreign engagement [1] Group 2: Market Impact and Global Position - The Shanghai crude oil futures market ranks among the top three globally, serving as a crucial pricing reference for crude oil trade in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - Approximately 40% of natural rubber imports are linked to the price of the 20th rubber futures, and about 30% of South American farmers reference the Dalian Commodity Exchange's No. 2 soybean futures price, showcasing the growing international influence of "Chinese prices" [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CSRC emphasized the need to balance openness with safety and to enhance trading convenience while deepening cross-border cooperation in the futures market [2] - Future plans include expanding the range of open products and improving trading accessibility [2]

Core Viewpoint - The development of the Shanghai International Financial Center is closely linked to the growth of the derivatives market, which plays a crucial role in enhancing China's financial system's internationalization and security [1]. Group 1: Derivatives Trading as a Core Driver - Derivatives trading is a key pillar of international financial centers, with Shanghai's futures exchange achieving a trading volume of 6 billion contracts in 2024, accounting for 18% of global commodity derivatives trading [2]. - The average daily trading volume of Shanghai crude oil futures exceeded 500,000 contracts, significantly enhancing Shanghai's pricing influence in the Asia-Pacific region [2]. - The "Shanghai Gold" benchmark has become the second-largest global gold pricing benchmark, with a participation rate of 25% [2]. - In 2024, the trading volume of interest rate swaps in the Shanghai interbank market reached 45 trillion yuan, effectively helping enterprises manage interest rate volatility risks [2]. Group 2: Development Environment for the Derivatives Market - The construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center provides a favorable environment for the derivatives market, with a 40% year-on-year increase in derivatives trading volume in the free trade zone in 2024 [3]. - The Shanghai Clearing House has achieved T+0 cross-border clearing for RMB derivatives, improving efficiency by 50% [3]. - Tax incentives have attracted international asset management institutions, and talent programs have led to a net inflow of over 10,000 professionals in derivatives [3]. Group 3: Interaction Between RMB Internationalization and Derivatives Development - The linkage between offshore and onshore derivatives markets resulted in a cross-border RMB derivatives trading volume of 12 trillion yuan in 2024, making RMB the fifth-largest currency for derivatives trading globally [4]. - The integration of commodity derivatives with industrial finance has created an ecosystem that significantly reduces costs for enterprises [4]. - The green finance derivatives market is thriving, with the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange aiming for a scale of over 1 trillion yuan by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning for Financial Security and International Influence - The derivatives market plays a dual role in financial security and the construction of international financial centers, with enterprises using derivatives to hedge against cost fluctuations [5]. - Innovations in dynamic margin management have enhanced risk prevention levels [5]. - The increase in derivatives trading volume can significantly enhance the global competitiveness of financial centers, with Shanghai aiming to improve its global financial center ranking through derivatives innovation [5]. Group 5: Existing Gaps and Future Directions - Compared to mature international markets like New York and London, China's derivatives market has differences in regulatory frameworks, regulatory focus, cross-border regulation, and margin financing for derivatives trading [6]. - The need for continuous exploration in regulatory coordination and market openness is emphasized to promote the collaborative development of the derivatives market and the Shanghai International Financial Center [6]. Group 6: Four Dimensions to Promote the Internationalization of the Derivatives Market - There is a need to deepen cross-border regulatory cooperation while maintaining risk prevention, gradually transitioning to a mixed regulatory framework to enhance market efficiency and international competitiveness [12]. - Prioritizing the development of entity-related derivatives and establishing innovation laboratories to ensure new products are adequately tested before market introduction [13]. - Accelerating the internationalization of infrastructure, with the Shanghai Clearing House aiming to connect with international standards and achieve real-time connections with Euroclear by 2027 [14]. - Focusing on the development of derivatives tools that meet enterprise risk hedging needs and encouraging international investor participation to enhance market internationalization [16].

Core Viewpoint - China's selling of US Treasury bonds is putting significant pressure on the US government, forcing President Trump to reconsider his stance towards China amid the ongoing trade negotiations [1][10][17] Group 1: Financial Impact - The US Treasury is facing a daily interest expense of $3 billion, while China's holdings of $765.4 billion in US debt are depreciating by 1% daily [2][5] - The short positions on 10-year US Treasuries have surged to levels not seen since 2008, with $3.8 trillion in capital fleeing from dollar assets [2][10] - If China continues to reduce its US debt holdings by 5%, the Pentagon may need to cut its budget for two aircraft carrier battle groups next year [7][10] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The recent 13% appreciation of the euro against the dollar threatens the foundation of the petrodollar system [4][10] - China's share of global oil trade settled in yuan has increased to 2.3%, a 15-fold increase from three years ago [5][10] - The Chinese government is allowing companies to use iron ore and copper concentrate as collateral for loans in yuan, facilitating bypassing the dollar in commodity transactions [9][10] Group 3: Strategic Moves - The negotiations in Geneva include a clause where China demands recognition of the yuan's special drawing rights, which would effectively grant the yuan an "international passport" [7][10] - China's reduction of US debt holdings is part of a broader strategy to internationalize the yuan and challenge the dollar's dominance [14][15] - The ongoing trade war has transformed into a financial battle, with the key to victory being the internationalization of local currencies [14][15]