01 大盘 昨夜美股三大股指持续震荡。截至收盘，道指跌 0.1%，纳指涨 0.13%，标普跌 0.03%。恐慌指数VIX跌 6.67%至20.14。美元指数昨日涨 0.05%，报98.89。美国十年国债收益率涨0.046%，收报4.394%，相较 两年期国债收益率差44.8个基点。现货黄金昨日跌 0.57%，报3369.22美元/盎司。布伦特原油收跌0.86% 至76.26。 顶着"太迟先生"的骂名，鲍威尔连续第四次按兵不动。点阵图仍暗示今年降息两次，市场聚焦9月的行 动窗口。 02 行业&个股 行业板块方面，除半导体、公用事业、房地产、科技和通讯分别收涨0.41%、0.26%、0.19%、0.12%和 0.05%外，标普其他5大板块悉数收跌：能源、原料、工业、原料和日常消费分别收跌0.65%、0.29%、 0.24%、0.17%和0.12%。 中概股多数收跌，台积电跌 0.19%，阿里跌 1.34%，拼多多跌 0.27%，京东跌 2.02%，理想跌 1.93%， 小鹏涨 0.22%， 富途涨 0.39%，蔚来跌 0.58%。 大型科技股涨跌互现。微软涨 0.46%，微软宣布与AMD达成多年期合作协议，双方将 ...

内容概况：作为半导体封装环节的核心设备，塑封机的技术升级与产业布局深刻影响着中国半导体产业 链的自主化进程。2025年1-4月，中国半导体塑封机进口金额为3144.82万美元，同比增长29.46%；出口 金额为1605.21万美元，同比下降28.05%。进口增长方面，一是国内先进封装产能扩张，尤其是第三代 半导体（SiC、GaN）封装线建设，对日本东和半导体、荷兰ASMPT等企业的超高压塑封机需求激增。 二是高端设备国产替代率不足，500MPa级超高压成型机、激光辅助成型设备等仍依赖进口，单台设备 价格超50万美元，推高进口总额。出口下降则反映全球市场压力。一方面，东南亚、印度等新兴市场本 土封装厂崛起，以价格优势挤压中国设备出口；另一方面，美国《芯片与科学法案》限制中国设备进入 高端市场，叠加欧盟碳关税（CBAM）政策，导致出口成本上升。此外，国产设备在稳定性、精度 （±1μm以下）等指标上仍落后于国际巨头，难以满足台积电、三星等大客户要求。 相关上市企业：耐科装备（688419）、三佳科技（600520）、长电科技（600584） 相关企业：衡所华威电子有限公司、北京科化新材料科技有限公司、宁波博威合金材 ...

Core Viewpoint - FOPLP (Fan-Out Panel Level Packaging) is gaining attention as an advanced packaging technology, with major competitors like TSMC, Powertech, and ASE adopting distinct names for their versions to differentiate in the market [1][2]. Group 1: FOPLP Technology Overview - FOPLP technology has been promoted by domestic packaging and testing companies for about 9 years, but significant end-user applications have been limited due to initial yield issues and a cautious client attitude [1]. - The technology's initial applications were primarily in RF IC and PMIC sectors, but there is a recent shift towards consumer electronics and AI applications, spurred by TSMC's leadership [1]. Group 2: Company Developments - Powertech has officially named its FOPLP technology PiFO, having achieved mass production as early as 2019, and claims to be the only company with large-scale FOPLP production capabilities [2]. - TSMC plans to establish its first CoPoS (Chip-on-Panel-on-Substrate) experimental line by 2026, with large-scale production expected between late 2028 and 2029, targeting NVIDIA as its first customer [2]. - ASE is utilizing the previously announced FoCoS name for its panel-level packaging technology, with a current production line for 300x300 panel-level packaging aimed at power management and automotive applications [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Industry experts believe that the focus of TSMC, Powertech, and ASE on high-end product applications in panel-level packaging will be crucial for the success of FOPLP technology [3]. - The future success of FOPLP as a next-generation advanced packaging solution will depend on resolving yield issues related to chip manufacturers' product positioning and warpage, as well as ensuring overall performance and cost-effectiveness for clients [3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious investment approach in the electronics sector, highlighting a moderate recovery in demand and price stabilization, with a recommendation to gradually build positions in select areas [4][5]. Core Insights - The electronics sector is experiencing a mild recovery, with key investment themes identified as AIOT, AI-driven technologies, device materials, and consumer electronics [4]. - NVIDIA is accelerating its AI initiatives, planning to build 20 AI factories in Europe, which is expected to significantly boost demand for AI chips and computing power [4][10]. - Apple introduced the iOS 26 system at WWDC 2025, showcasing new features but falling short of expectations in AI advancements compared to competitors [4][11]. - Huawei launched the Pura 80 series, featuring HarmonyOS 5.1, emphasizing AI interaction and privacy protection [4][12]. Summary by Sections Industry News - NVIDIA announced plans to establish 20 AI factories in Europe, aiming to enhance AI computing capabilities by tenfold [10]. - Qualcomm agreed to acquire Alphawave IP Group for approximately $2.4 billion, indicating ongoing consolidation in the semiconductor industry [10]. - Micron Technology revealed a $200 billion investment plan for chip manufacturing and R&D in the U.S., aiming to expand its memory manufacturing scale [11]. Market Performance - The electronics sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shenzhen 300 index down 0.25% and the Shenwan Electronics Index down 1.92%, trailing the Shenzhen 300 by 1.67 percentage points [16][18]. - As of June 13, 2025, the semiconductor sub-sector saw a decline of 3.34%, while electronic components increased by 0.93% [18][19]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies benefiting from strong domestic and international demand in the AIOT sector, such as Lexin Technology and Hanguang Technology [5]. - Consider AI innovation-driven sectors, particularly in computing chips and optical devices, with companies like Cambricon and Source Technology highlighted [5]. - Monitor upstream supply chain opportunities in semiconductor equipment and materials, with attention to companies like North Huachuang and Zhongwei Technology [5].

Market Performance - The main board saw significant gains with stocks like Dongxin He Ping (+10.03%), Sanwei Communication (+10.02%), and Hengsheng Electronics (+10.02%) leading the charge [1] - The ChiNext board also performed well, highlighted by Tianyang Technology (+20.00%) and Langxin Group (+19.99%) [1] - The Sci-Tech Innovation board was led by Jinchengzi (+19.99%) and Qingyun Technology-U (+11.50%) [1] - Active sub-industries included SW Film and Animation Production (+7.41%) and SW Printed Circuit Board (+3.85%) [1] Domestic News - Aibang VR industry news reported that Lianhui Technology showcased the Homer AI-assisted glasses at the Shanghai Old Expo, designed for the elderly, integrating AI technology for enhanced safety and convenience [1] - South Korean media reported that TSMC and Samsung Electronics are set to produce the industry's most advanced 2nm chips in the second half of the year, with a competitive order acquisition battle expected, although Samsung's yield rates are lower than TSMC's [1] - Taiwan's economic department updated the list of strategic high-tech goods export entities, adding 601 entities involved in "weapons proliferation," including major Chinese tech firms like Huawei and SMIC [1] - Semiconductor investment alliance Huamei Titanium completed nearly 100 million yuan in Pre-A round financing, developing key liquid crystal phased array technology that reduces manufacturing difficulty and costs by 90% [1] Company Announcements - Meishi Technology announced a cash dividend of 6 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 60 million yuan, based on a total share capital of 100 million shares [3] - Jiulian Technology is progressing with a major asset restructuring, with due diligence and audits ongoing, but no formal share transfer agreements signed yet [3] - Jiangbolong's subsidiary signed a memorandum of cooperation with Sandisk to develop customized UFS solutions for mobile and IoT markets [3] - Beijing Junzheng announced a dividend of 0.997988 yuan per 10 shares, maintaining a total payout of 48.157 million yuan despite an increase in share capital [3] Overseas News - Samsung Electronics is developing a new glass substrate for advanced semiconductor packaging, aiming to reduce manufacturing costs and enhance performance [4] - Crusoe plans to establish a data center in the U.S. to house AMD's AI chips for client use in building AI models [4] - AMD unveiled its latest Instinct MI350 series GPU at the 2025 Global AI Development Conference, achieving a fourfold increase in AI computing power and a 35-fold leap in inference performance [4] - Despite economic pressures, OLED display panel trading remains positive, with a projected 132% year-on-year growth in 2024, leading to an upward revision of OLED panel shipment forecasts from 2.8 million to 3.4 million units [4]

Core Insights - Apple is aggressively pursuing the AI glasses market, with a modular design that allows users to customize components such as batteries and frames, enhancing personalization and usability [1][2] - The anticipated launch of Apple's AI glasses is expected in 2026, with Foxconn and Quanta likely to secure manufacturing contracts, while TSMC is expected to produce key chips [1] - The introduction of AI glasses is expected to spark a new wave of market interest, benefiting various Taiwanese stocks associated with AI glasses [1] Modular Design Features - The patented modular design includes detachable support arms that can alleviate pressure on the nose and cheeks, enhancing comfort for users [2] - Users can replace components to improve fit, extend battery life, or personalize style, making the glasses adaptable for various head shapes and activities [2] - The support arms are embedded with essential electronic components, including processors, speakers, and batteries, allowing for a swappable battery feature [2] Technological Innovations - The AI glasses are expected to include a camera, microphone, and speaker, with built-in Siri support for functionalities like phone calls, music playback, instant translation, and navigation [3] - The design incorporates a "liquid glass" concept that creates a semi-transparent effect, allowing digital information to blend seamlessly into the user's view [3][4] - This innovative design aims to provide a more intuitive and natural interaction experience by merging digital content with the physical world [4]

Core Insights - TSMC and Samsung are set to produce the industry's most advanced 2nm chips in the second half of this year, leading to intensified competition for orders [1] - TSMC has already begun receiving 2nm orders and is expected to produce them at its Hsinchu and Kaohsiung facilities, utilizing GAA architecture for the first time, which is projected to enhance performance by 10% to 15% and reduce power consumption by 25% to 30% [1] - TSMC's 2nm clients include major companies such as Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, and MediaTek, with MediaTek's CEO hinting at a product design completion by September [1] - Samsung aims to start 2nm chip production in the second half of the year, likely for its new Galaxy S26 flagship device, but its yield rate is reportedly lower than TSMC's [1] - TSMC's 2nm yield has surpassed 60%, while Samsung's yield is around 40%, posing a challenge for Samsung in attracting orders from tech giants [1][2] Company Strategies - Samsung, despite being the first to produce 3nm chips using GAA architecture, has faced challenges with low yield rates and is now focusing on improving its 2nm yield based on previous experiences [2] - To enhance its competitive edge in advanced processes, Samsung has recruited Margaret Han, a former TSMC employee, to lead its foundry division [2]

01 国常会：更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳 国务院总理李强6月13日主持召开国务院常务会议，部署中国（上海）自由贸易试验区试点措施复制推广工作，听取构建房地产发展新模式和推进好房子建设有关 情况汇报，审议通过《关于进一步完善信用修复制度的实施方案》，研究优化药品和耗材集采有关举措。 会议指出，构建房地产发展新模式，对于促进房地产市场平稳、健康、高质量发展具有重要意义，要着眼长远，坚持稳中求进、先立后破，有序搭建相关基础性制 度。要扎实有力推进"好房子"建设，纳入城市更新机制加强工作统筹，在规划、土地、财政、金融等方面予以政策支持。要对全国房地产已供土地和在建项目进行 摸底，进一步优化现有政策，提升政策实施的系统性有效性，多管齐下稳定预期、激活需求、优化供给、化解风险， 更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 详情参见： 《国常会：更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳》 02 央行明日重要操作 央行将于月内第二次开展买断式逆回购操作。6月13日，中国人民银行发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年6月16日，将以 固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展4000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 ...

点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 产业链跟踪：产业链部分环节边际改善明显，关注受益于自主可控和景气复苏标的。 英伟达FY26Q1营收超指引，博通营收创单季新高，并指引25Q3收入同比持续高增，AI景气持续旺盛带 动算力芯片需求，国内海光信息整合中科曙光预计将完善供应链体系；国内存储/模拟/材料/MCU等细 分领域景气度持续回暖，DDR4等受益于海外大厂退出而价格涨幅较好。建议关注H20芯片被禁后的国 产算力芯片、景气周期边际复苏叠加创新加速的存储/SoC/模拟/材料等板块、受益于先进制程扩产和国 产替代进程的代工/设备/零部件等板块，同时建议关注各科创指数和半导体指数核心成分股。 5月A股半导体指数跑输中国台湾半导体指数及费城半导体指数。 5月，半导体（SW）行业指 数 -6.23% ， 同 期 电 子 （ SW ） 行 业 指 数 -2.85% ， 费 城 半 导 体 指 数 / 中 国 台 湾 半 导 体 指 数 +12.48%/+5.43%。 行业景气跟踪：部分消费类领域边际转暖，工业类需求整体复苏仍然乏力。 1 、需求端：部分消费电子行业需求复苏，AI/汽车等驱动端侧应用创新。 手机： 25Q1全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The optical components industry is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged period of uncertainty, with a positive outlook on the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) sector, particularly for leading companies like Coherent and Lumentum [1][12]. Industry Overview - CPO technology is expected to begin mass production in the second half of 2025 and reach a significant turning point in 2027, accelerating growth compared to previous optical communication technology transitions [1]. - The total power consumption of data center hardware is projected to surge from 50 GW in 2023 to 150 GW by 2029, with optical transceiver power consumption expected to increase nearly tenfold [5]. - CPO technology offers substantial performance advantages, including over 30% reduction in power consumption, doubling of port density, and significant performance improvements [8]. Market Dynamics - The market for pluggable transceivers is expected to remain dominant, growing from $11 billion in 2025 to $23 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17% [9]. - CPO is not seen as a disruptor to existing supply chains but rather as a catalyst for creating a new market, allowing current optical suppliers to maintain essential roles [12]. Profitability Insights - CPO business is anticipated to have a gross margin exceeding 50%, significantly higher than the 30% margin for traditional pluggable transceivers [13]. - By 2030, CPO is expected to account for 19% of total revenue for companies like Coherent and Lumentum, contributing 27% of gross profit [13]. Company Projections - Coherent is projected to achieve a 10% revenue growth in fiscal years 2026 and 2027, with earnings per share (EPS) reaching $5.70, surpassing market expectations [16]. - Lumentum's EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised to $4.20 and $5.90, respectively, driven by its leadership in CPO laser technology [16]. Key Players and Developments - Major companies benefiting from the CPO supply chain include Broadcom, Nvidia, TSMC, Corning, and Fabrinet, each playing a critical role in advancing CPO technology [20]. - The CPO market is characterized by ongoing pricing pressures and potential vertical integration by customers like Cisco and Ciena, which could impact upstream suppliers [20].