证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 12 日 关税问题再次升级，短期如有调整带来买入良机 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 由于特朗普关税威胁，美股大跌，工业金属价格本周大涨，周五大幅回落。本 周贵金属冲高之后横盘，周五冲高。4 月美国关税超预期，市场经历过压力测 试，预计本次对工业金属压力相对可控。我们认为以铜为代表的有色金属大叙 事不改，短期调整是加仓的机会。周四连发四文全方位升级稀土出口管制，看 好稀土的战略地位提升。我们持续看好有色资源股，调整买入。重点关注铜金 银铝钴稀土钨锑镍铀等品种。此外，关注科技成长相关新材料标的。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 236 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 6038.2 | 5.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 5646.1 | 5.9 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 7.4 | 59.4 | 62.2 | | 相对表现 | 3.6 | 35.8 | 46.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that gold and rare earths may see a resurgence, while it also highlights opportunities for copper investments during market dips [8][13] - The report emphasizes that the deterioration of fiat currency credit and the need for safe-haven assets are driving gold prices upward, with gold stabilizing above $4,000 [8][13] - The upgrade of export controls on rare earths is seen as a strategic catalyst, potentially enhancing the value of the sector [14] - The report expresses confidence in the mid-term rise of copper prices due to fundamental supply-demand changes, recommending investors to look for opportunities in the copper sector [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to deteriorating fiat currency credit and increased demand for safe-haven assets [8][13] - The rare earth sector is poised for a strategic boost following the upgrade of export controls, which may lead to higher domestic prices [14] - The copper market is anticipated to experience a mid-term price increase driven by supply constraints and rising demand from sectors like electric vehicles and data centers [15][16] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry's profitability is under short-term pressure, with costs providing some support for steel prices [17] - Iron and steel production has seen slight declines, with traditional peak season demand yet to be validated [19] - Overall steel inventories are rising, indicating a potential oversupply situation [22] - Steel prices are maintaining a weak and stable trend, with notable price differentiation among various steel products [36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in August 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 46.54%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt are stable, while nickel prices have shown slight increases [50][51]

Market Overview - In the first week of October, the A-share market experienced high volatility, with the 每经品牌100 index peaking at 1259 points before a decline of 1.65%, closing at 1221.82 points [1] - The market showed clear adjustments, with growth sectors significantly retreating while defensive sectors strengthened [1][7] - As of October 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.26%, and the ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index saw declines of 3.86% and 2.85%, respectively [1] Stock Performance - Jiangxi Copper led the weekly performance with a rise of 18.63%, followed by ZTE and Shanghai Electric with increases of 13.94% and 10.81% [3] - Other notable performers included Hikvision, China Railway, and China Metallurgical Group, each with gains exceeding 5% [3] - Several "China" stocks, including China Power Construction and China State Construction, also saw weekly gains of over 2% [3] Market Capitalization Growth - Agricultural Bank of China, China Mobile, and China Petroleum each saw market capitalization growth of around 500 million [3] - Additionally, Zijin Mining and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, among nine other constituent stocks, experienced market capitalization growth exceeding 100 million [3] Industry Insights - The A-share market is currently influenced by an industrial revolution driven by artificial intelligence and global liquidity easing due to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, suggesting a future upward trend [8] - Hikvision, a leader in the global security industry, is focusing on digitalization in industrial scenarios, showcasing its "IoT perception + AI" theme at the 2025 China International Industrial Expo [8][9] - The company has introduced advanced technologies such as laser millimeter-wave fusion scanning imaging radar, enhancing measurement accuracy in complex storage facilities [9] Technological Advancements - Hikvision's large model products are widely applied in industrial settings, improving production safety, product quality, and operational management [9] - The company aims to collaborate with more ecosystem partners to drive quality improvement, cost reduction, and efficiency enhancement in the manufacturing sector [9][10] - Hikvision has established itself as a leader in various innovative sectors, including industrial IoT, smart logistics, and intelligent manufacturing, with its subsidiaries achieving significant market positions [10]

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing preference for titanium zinc panels in modern architecture due to their aesthetic appeal, functionality, and environmental sustainability, aligning with the evolving design concepts and increasing market demands for building materials [1][15] - The Chinese titanium zinc panel market has shown steady growth, with the industry size projected to increase from 930 million yuan in 2019 to 1.56 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.9% [1][16] - Innovations in material science, processing technology, and design concepts are expected to enhance the production technology and performance of titanium zinc panels, further expanding their application areas and market competitiveness [1][15] Industry Overview - Titanium zinc panels are high-performance building materials made from titanium-zinc alloys, available in various types and specifications to meet diverse architectural needs [3][10] - The industry has evolved significantly, with commercial applications of titanium zinc panels emerging in developed countries by the late 20th century, driven by advancements in smelting technology and the unique self-protective corrosion resistance of the material [9][10] Market Dynamics - The global titanium zinc panel market is projected to grow from $855 million in 2019 to $1.179 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 6.64%, driven by the increasing demand for sustainable and high-performance materials in the construction industry [14][15] - The Chinese market is expected to reach 1.732 billion yuan by 2025, supported by ongoing urbanization and renovation projects [1][16] Competitive Landscape - The global market is dominated by foreign companies such as Zintek, Rheinzink, and VMZINC, which have established significant market presence in China through subsidiaries [16][17] - Domestic companies like Shanghai Ruiding Building Technology Co., Ltd. and Suzhou Donghong Metal Materials Technology Co., Ltd. are actively developing their capabilities to compete in the high-end market by focusing on technology, product innovation, and market expansion [16][17] Industry Trends - The industry is moving towards a green low-carbon transformation, emphasizing the full lifecycle carbon footprint management and the provision of comprehensive low-carbon building solutions [19] - There is a trend towards smart integration and multifunctionality in titanium zinc panels, with potential applications in energy monitoring, self-cleaning, and photovoltaic integration [20][21] - The application scope of titanium zinc panels is diversifying beyond large public buildings to include high-end residential, urban renewal, and small commercial spaces, driven by consumer demand for aesthetic and personalized designs [22]

Market Overview - The three major stock indices collectively declined, with a total market turnover of approximately 2.53 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 130 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.26%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.86% over the past two trading days [1] - In September 2025, new A-share accounts reached 2.94 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 61%, with a total of 20.15 million new accounts opened in the first three quarters of 2025, up 50% year-on-year [1] Weekly Stock Performance - Over 2,900 stocks rose this week, with 18 stocks increasing by more than 20%. The largest gain was seen in Guanzhong Ecological, which rose by 36.14% [2] - The sectors with the most stocks gaining over 20% included non-ferrous metals, construction decoration, and machinery equipment, each contributing three stocks to the list [2] Institutional Activity - Institutions were active in the market, with 66 stocks appearing on the weekly leaderboard, net buying 38 stocks and net selling 28 stocks. Ten stocks saw net purchases exceeding 110 million yuan [3] - The stock with the highest net purchase was Ganfeng Lithium, amounting to 578 million yuan, with a weekly increase of 5.01% and a turnover rate of 23.63% [3][4] Notable Announcements - China Power Construction signed a significant contract worth approximately 11.719 billion yuan [6] - Jingu Co., Ltd. entered into a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Ninebot Technology to collaborate on new material research and application in service robots [7] Earnings Forecasts - Several companies reported strong earnings forecasts for the third quarter, including: - Yuyuan New Materials, with a projected net profit increase of 101% to 127% year-on-year - Huace Navigation, expecting a net profit increase of 23.17% to 27.02% year-on-year - Allwinner Technology, anticipating a net profit increase of 213% to 307% year-on-year [8]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94% on October 10, with 18 out of the 28 sectors rising, led by construction materials and coal, which increased by 1.92% and 1.37% respectively [1] - The electronic and electrical equipment sectors experienced the largest declines, down by 4.71% and 4.46% respectively [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector dropped by 2.93% [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of capital from the two markets reached 125.784 billion yuan, with 8 sectors seeing net inflows [1] - The construction materials sector had the highest net inflow of 418 million yuan, followed by the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector with a net inflow of 379 million yuan [1] - The electronic sector faced the largest net outflow of 38.319 billion yuan, followed by the electrical equipment sector with a net outflow of 25.535 billion yuan [1] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a net outflow of 15.387 billion yuan, with 137 stocks in the sector, of which 30 rose and 104 fell [2] - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow were Antai Technology (22.3 million yuan), Silver Industry (19.5 million yuan), and Pengxin Resources (19.1 million yuan) [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflow included Northern Rare Earth (2.519 billion yuan), Huayou Cobalt (1.011 billion yuan), and Luoyang Molybdenum (920 million yuan) [2] Non-Ferrous Metals Capital Inflow - The top stocks in terms of capital inflow included: - Antai Technology: +9.99%, turnover rate 10.79%, net inflow 223.06 million yuan - Silver Industry: +9.96%, turnover rate 3.52%, net inflow 194.94 million yuan - Pengxin Resources: +10.06%, turnover rate 10.60%, net inflow 190.96 million yuan [2][4] Non-Ferrous Metals Capital Outflow - The stocks with the largest capital outflow included: - Northern Rare Earth: -1.22%, turnover rate 8.90%, net outflow 2.518 billion yuan - Huayou Cobalt: -7.74%, turnover rate 7.85%, net outflow 1.011 billion yuan - Luoyang Molybdenum: -3.18%, turnover rate 2.59%, net outflow 919.66 million yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial metal sector experienced a decline of 2.05% on October 10, with significant losses in certain stocks, particularly Jingyi Co., which fell by 9.37% [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3897.03, down 0.94% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13355.42, down 2.7% [1]. Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the industrial metal sector included: - Pengxin Resources: Closed at 7.99, up 10.06% with a trading volume of 2.11 million shares and a turnover of 1.62 billion - Baiyin Nonferrous: Closed at 5.08, up 9.96% with a trading volume of 2.60 million shares and a turnover of 1.29 billion - Jiangxi Copper: Closed at 42.10, up 7.84% with a trading volume of 1.80 million shares and a turnover of 7.53 billion [1]. - Significant decliners included: - Jingyi Co.: Closed at 14.71, down 9.37% with a trading volume of 768,600 shares and a turnover of 1.18 billion - Jincheng Mining: Closed at 68.08, down 9.08% with a trading volume of 177,300 shares and a turnover of 1.24 billion - Electric Alloy: Closed at 18.26, down 7.82% with a trading volume of 385,300 shares and a turnover of 722 million [2]. Capital Flow - The industrial metal sector saw a net outflow of 6.639 billion from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net inflow of 5.439 billion [2][3]. - The capital flow for specific stocks showed: - Baiyin Nonferrous: Main funds net inflow of 177 million, retail funds net outflow of 878.88 million - Pengxin Resources: Main funds net inflow of 170 million, retail funds net outflow of 636.48 million [3].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，截至10月10日收盘，140只个股连续上涨5个交易日及以上。平高电气、许继电气连续上 涨8个交易日，川恒股份、苏威孚B等连续上涨7个交易日。从累计涨幅来看，冠中生态连涨期间累计涨 幅达96.07%，江西铜业连涨期间累计涨幅达48.03%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that 博盈特焊 (301468.SZ) specializes in products and technologies used in energy-saving and environmental protection, as well as in various industrial corrosion and wear-resistant fields [1] - The company serves important clients in the metallurgy sector, including 紫金矿业, 江西铜业, and 铜陵有色 [1] - 博盈特焊 provides cladding equipment and components such as cladding boiler water walls and cladding water jacket plates to non-ferrous metal enterprises [1]

Core Insights - The A-share market showed a mixed performance on October 10, with significant pullbacks in previously strong sectors such as chips, batteries, and non-ferrous metals [1] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) experienced its first decline after reaching a new high, dropping by 3.35% [1] - Despite the pullback, there was a notable inflow of funds into the Non-ferrous 50 ETF, with a net subscription of 191 million shares and nearly 300 million yuan in net inflow during the trading session [1] Market Performance - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw a decline of 3.35%, with a trading price of 1.499 yuan [1] - The ETF has attracted over 400 million yuan in net inflows over the past five days and more than 1 billion yuan over the past 20 days, reaching a total scale of over 2.6 billion yuan, a record high since its listing [1] - Major component stocks of the Non-ferrous 50 ETF mostly retreated, with Huayou Cobalt down over 8% and Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others down over 5% [1] Sector Composition - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF covers a wide range of metals, including gold, copper, and rare earths, with a copper content of 30%, leading among similar indices in the market [2] - The ETF's top ten component stocks include significant players in the non-ferrous sector, with varying weightings and performance [1][2] Price Trends and Forecasts - Gold prices have decreased due to reduced risk appetite and profit-taking, influenced by geopolitical developments such as the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas [5] - Copper prices are expected to rise due to supply disruptions, with Teck Resources lowering its production guidance for 2025 and 2026 [5][6] - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for 2026 from $10,000 to $10,500 per ton, citing structural demand growth and resource constraints [5] Investment Opportunities - The current environment presents significant investment opportunities in non-ferrous metals, driven by supply-side constraints, new demand dynamics, and global economic trends [6] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted as a leading option for investors looking to capitalize on these trends, given its higher gold and copper content compared to peers [6]