反内卷政策解读：行业视角之水泥 20250707 摘要 水泥行业产能过剩严重，2024 年产能利用率仅为 53%，远低于非金属 矿业平均水平，且销量同比下降至少 10%。区域间发展不平衡加剧问题， 部分地区开窑率已降至 30%以下，行业面临突出的结构性矛盾。 水泥企业主要通过错峰生产和控产量应对内卷，但部分企业为追求规模 化和市场份额，不执行错峰生产，导致价格波动剧烈，破坏行业生态。 尽管如此，多数企业仍对反内卷政策抱有期望。 未来水泥价格预计将持续受供需矛盾影响，需加强自律手段，如精准错 峰限产和合规限产，以控制总量并稳定市场价格。或将出台更严格的自 律措施，通过政府或行业提升处罚力度。 区域性水泥企业对反内卷政策接受度较高，而全国性布局企业在控价能 力强的区域更积极。部分产能发挥不足或使用替代燃料的企业倾向于产 能双控，龙头企业也逐渐接受错峰生产。 国家层面推进供给侧结构性改革 2.0，遏制低价无序竞争，提升产品质 量。市场监管总局加大抽查力度，淘汰低水平粉磨站。但水泥行业自律 机制受反垄断法限制，需更高层次文件支持。 Q&A 未来水泥相关产品价格预计将继续受到供需矛盾加剧和需求不断下滑的影响。 在此背景 ...

2025 年 07 月 06 日 "反内卷"政策下，能源及材料投 资机会梳理 看好 ——新材料与投资品产业链点评 本期投资提示： 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 陆灏川 A0230520080001 luhc@swsresearch.com 马天一 A0230525040004 maty@swsresearch.com 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 刘子栋 A0230523110002 liuzd@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵文琪 (8621)23297818× zhaowq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The construction materials industry has seen a significant increase in attention since July 1, driven by unexpected changes on the supply side and a focus on demand upgrades for the end of 2024 [1][2] - The cement industry is experiencing a "de-involution" policy expectation, with a focus on limiting overproduction and improving regulatory oversight [2][10] - The demand side is shifting, with AI-related demand expected to accelerate, positively impacting various segments of the industry [3][27] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is witnessing a rare price increase in the waterproofing industry, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4][5] - Companies like Sanke Tree and Dongfang Yuhong are showing improved profitability through cost reduction and price increases, validating earlier industry reports [4][5] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that profitability recovery will outpace revenue growth, with expectations of reduced price competition and improved cost management [4][5] Group 3: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments take effect, with a focus on limiting production and improving cash flow [10][12] - Major companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are expected to maintain strong cash flow and dividend policies, indicating long-term investment value [11][16][17] - The industry's overall profitability is anticipated to improve as demand stabilizes and production constraints are implemented [12][15] Group 4: Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of cash losses for many companies [19][20] - Companies like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group are facing challenges but are expected to maintain stable profitability in their automotive glass segments [21][22] - The photovoltaic glass sector is entering a cash loss phase, prompting accelerated cold repairs and production adjustments [25][26] Group 5: Fiber Industry - The fiberglass sector is seeing stable demand for mainstream electronic yarns, with a focus on high-end products like low-dielectric cloth [27][28] - Companies like China Jushi are expanding production capacity overseas to mitigate trade risks and maintain growth [29][30] - The carbon fiber market is showing signs of recovery in wind power demand, with expectations of improved profitability in Q2 [32]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The geopolitical situation overseas has eased, leading to a short-term fluctuation in gold prices. As of June 27, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 2.9% to $3,286.1 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.5% to 954.82 tons [2][3] - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in May, the highest since February 2025, with expectations of a 2.6% increase. The previous value was revised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2][3] - Following the PCE data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut remained largely unchanged. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a temporary decline in risk aversion, contributing to a slight drop in gold prices this week. However, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening dollar [2][3] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper - As of June 27, the LME copper futures contract rose by 2.3% to $9,879 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 130,100 tons as of June 19, a decrease of 15,800 tons [3][4] - The LME copper inventory stood at 91,300 tons as of June 20, continuing to approach historical lows. The import copper concentrate index reported a negative $44.81 per ton on June 27. The annual negotiations between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters resulted in a mid-year TC long-term price dropping to $0 per ton, indicating a tight balance for copper concentrate in 2025-2026 [3][4] - The easing of geopolitical risks and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have improved macroeconomic sentiment, benefiting copper prices. The combination of rigid supply, low inventory, and a weakening dollar is expected to accelerate the price elasticity of copper [3][4] Group 3: Industrial Metals - Aluminum - As of June 27, the LME aluminum futures contract increased by 1.3% to $2,595 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 463,000 tons as of June 20, an increase of 14,000 tons [4] - The LME aluminum inventory was at 345,200 tons as of June 26, with global electrolytic aluminum inventory levels remaining low. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been operating at high levels, with no immediate expectations for new projects to come online [4] - The rising aluminum water ratio may significantly impact the electrolytic aluminum spot market, as many northern aluminum plants have increased their aluminum water ratio, leading to a decrease in ingot production and a potential decline in aluminum ingot inventory. The mid-term outlook for aluminum prices is positive due to a tight supply-demand balance and low global inventory levels [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes are highlighted, with a long-term positive outlook. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [5] - For copper, the gradual recovery of domestic demand and the acceleration of industrialization in emerging markets are expected to open up long-term demand for refined copper. The tight supply of copper concentrate is also noted. Recommended stock: Zijin Mining [5] - In the aluminum sector, the weak supply and strong demand dynamics are anticipated to accelerate, leading to a potential rise in aluminum prices. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [5]

Core Viewpoint - The cement sector in Hong Kong, particularly Western Cement, has experienced significant stock price increases, driven by asset sales and positive market expectations regarding overseas expansion and performance recovery [1][2][5]. Group 1: Company Developments - Western Cement's stock surged over 17% on June 26, with a cumulative increase of 25.75% since June 20, and trading volume exceeding 300 million at peak [1]. - The company announced plans to sell its assets in Xinjiang, with proceeds aimed at repaying part of its issued preferred notes and supporting expansion projects, particularly in Africa [1][5]. - The recent signing of a peace agreement between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to positively impact Western Cement's operations in the region, where it has significant production capacity [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The cement industry is showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with a trend of "reduced volume, increased price, and improved profits" following a downturn in 2024 [3]. - National cement production in Q1 2025 was 331 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, but March saw a 2.5% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - The average market price for cement in Q1 2025 was 397 RMB/ton, up 9.3% from the previous year, indicating improved pricing power in the industry [3][5]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Several cement companies reported improved financial results in Q1 2025, with Western Cement expected to show performance recovery in the upcoming interim report [5]. - The company's overseas business significantly contributed to its profitability, with overseas revenue accounting for 38% of total revenue and contributing 67% to gross profit margin in 2024 [8]. - Despite the positive outlook, Western Cement's debt levels are concerning, with total liabilities reaching 22.47 billion RMB and an increase in the debt-to-asset ratio from 60.4% to 65.3% [9][10]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The African market presents substantial growth potential for Western Cement, with a low per capita cement consumption and high demand driven by urbanization and economic growth [8]. - The company has been expanding its overseas production capacity, with significant investments in Mozambique and Uganda, aiming to leverage the favorable market conditions in Africa [9].

天山材料股份有限公司 （住所：新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市达坂城区白杨沟村） 新疆天山水泥股份有限公司 2022 年面向专业投资者 公开发行公司债券（第一期）（品种一） 2024 年度受托管理事务报告 债券受托管理人 （住所：北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 1 号国贸大厦 2 座 27 层及 28 层） 二〇二五年六月 重要声明 本报告依据《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》（以下简称《管理办法》）、 《公司债券受托管理人执业行为准则》（以下简称《执业行为准则》）、证券交 易所公司债券上市规则（以下简称"上市规则"）或证券交易所公司债券挂牌转 让规则（以下简称"挂牌转让规则"）、发行人与中国国际金融股份有限公司（以 下简称"中金公司"或"受托管理人"）签订的债券受托管理协议（以下简称"受 托管理协议"）及其它相关信息披露文件以及天山材料股份有限公司（以下简称 "发行人"或"公司"）出具的相关说明文件和提供的相关资料等，由受托管理 人中金公司编制。中金公司编制本报告的内容及信息均来源于天山材料股份有限 公司提供的资料或说明。 本报告不构成对投资者进行或不进行某项行为的推荐意见，投资者应对相关 事宜作出独立判断，而不应将本报告 ...

债券简称：24 天山 K1 债券代码：148712.SZ 债券简称：24 天材 K3 债券代码：148759.SZ 天山材料股份有限公司 公司债券受托管理事务报告 （2024年度） 发行人 天山材料股份有限公司 （新疆维吾尔自治区乌鲁木齐市达坂城区白杨沟村） 债券受托管理人 （广东省深圳市福田区中心三路 8 号卓越时代广场（二期）北座） 2025 年 6 月 重要声明 中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"）编制本报告的内容及信息均 来源于天山材料股份有限公司（以下简称"天山股份"、"发行人"或"公司"）对 外披露的《天山材料股份有限公司 2024 年年度报告》等相关公开信息披露文件、 发行人提供的证明文件以及第三方中介机构出具的专业意见。本报告中的"报告期" 是指 2024 年 4 月 24 日至 2024 年 12 月 31 日。 本报告不构成对投资者进行或不进行某项行为的推荐意见，投资者应对相关 事宜做出独立判断，而不应将本报告中的任何内容据以作为中信证券所作的承诺 或声明。 2 | 目录 | | --- | | 第一节 | 公司债券概况······························· ...

Group 1 - The company held its ninth board meeting, where several governance-related proposals were approved [1][2][3] - The board approved amendments to the Articles of Association to enhance corporate governance, including clarifying the responsibilities of controlling shareholders and optimizing shareholder meeting procedures [1][2] - The company will no longer have a supervisory board, as its functions will be transferred to the audit committee of the board [2][3] Group 2 - The board approved revisions to the rules governing shareholder meetings and board meetings, which will require special resolutions for final approval by the shareholders [2][3] - The company has established a three-year dividend return plan for 2025-2027 to enhance transparency in profit distribution and protect minority shareholders' rights [4][6] - The board approved the appointment of a new securities affairs representative, effective until the end of the current board's term [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The company has established a three-year shareholder dividend return plan for 2025-2027 to enhance transparency in profit distribution and ensure the protection of minority shareholders' rights [1] Group 1: Principles of the Plan - The plan emphasizes a continuous, stable, and scientific profit distribution policy, considering the opinions of shareholders, especially minority shareholders, and independent directors [2] - The company aims to balance short-term and long-term interests of shareholders while ensuring sustainable development [2] Group 2: Profit Distribution Methods - The profit distribution methods include cash, stock, or a combination of both, with a priority on cash dividends [3] - The board must complete the distribution of dividends within two months after the shareholders' meeting decision [3] Group 3: Cash Dividend Conditions and Proportions - The company will distribute cash dividends of no less than 50% of the distributable profits for each year from 2025 to 2027, subject to the board's proposal based on annual profitability and future funding plans [4] Group 4: Decision-Making and Supervision - The board and shareholders' meeting will consider the opinions of shareholders and independent directors during the profit distribution decision-making process [4] - The company will provide a platform for online voting and disclose reasons for not proposing profit distribution in regular reports [4] Group 5: Conditions for Stock Dividends - The company may issue stock dividends if cash dividend conditions are met and it is deemed beneficial for all shareholders, with specific ratios to be approved by the board and submitted for shareholder approval [5] Group 6: Differentiated Cash Dividend Policy - The board will propose differentiated cash dividend policies based on industry characteristics, development stages, and other factors, with minimum cash dividend ratios set at 80%, 40%, and 20% for different scenarios [5] Group 7: Planning Cycle and Decision Mechanism - The shareholder return plan will be reviewed every three years, with adjustments made as necessary due to significant changes in the external or internal business environment [6] Group 8: Other Matters - The plan will be executed in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, taking effect upon approval by the shareholders' meeting [6]

Group 1 - The company Tianshan Materials Co., Ltd. has decided to waive its right of first refusal regarding the transfer of 49% equity in its subsidiary, Piyang Zhonglian New Materials Co., Ltd., which is being sold by Henan Zhonghong Industrial Co., Ltd. for a price of 705.6 million yuan [1][4] - The decision to waive the right was approved unanimously in a board meeting, with 9 votes in favor and no opposition or abstentions [1][2] - The transaction does not constitute a major asset restructuring as defined by relevant regulations, and therefore does not require approval from the shareholders' meeting or regulatory authorities [2] Group 2 - Henan Zhonghong Industrial Co., Ltd. holds 49% of the equity in Piyang Zhonglian and is a limited liability company established in June 2017, with a registered capital of 55.56 million yuan [2][3] - Piyang Zhonglian New Materials Co., Ltd. was established in November 2019, has a registered capital of 480 million yuan, and is primarily engaged in mining, aggregate processing, and concrete production [3][4] - The financial data of Piyang Zhonglian shows total assets of 191.09 million yuan as of December 31, 2024 [3]