该行称，百威亚太公布2025年第四季业绩后股价反应疲弱，可能由于中国业务疲软、管理层对2026年餐 饮渠道复苏持保守态度，以及股息计划存在不确定性。该行认为餐饮业复苏前景不明朗，尽管认同管理 层聚焦家用及O2O渠道的策略，但预期复苏将是渐进过程，且销量回升可能被额外投资及平均售价下调 所抵销。 里昂发布研报称，下调百威亚太(01876)2026-2027财年盈利预测，但同时将估值前移一年，故目标价维 持9港元。该行指，仍在等待明确催化剂，餐饮业或O2O渠道若传出好消息，可能构成上行风险，惟需 时等待。维持"跑赢大市"评级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，里昂发布研报称，下调百威亚太(01876)2026-2027财年盈利预测，但同时将估值前 移一年，故目标价维持9港元。该行指，仍在等待明确催化剂，餐饮业或O2O渠道若传出好消息，可能 构成上行风险，惟需时等待。维持"跑赢大市"评级。 该行称，百威亚太公布2025年第四季业绩后股价反应疲弱，可能由于中国业务疲软、管理层对2026年餐 饮渠道复苏持保守态度，以及股息计划存在不确定性。该行认为餐饮业复苏前景不明朗，尽管认同管理 层聚焦家用及O2O渠道的策略，但预期复苏将是渐进过程，且销量回升可能被额外投资及平均售价下调 所抵销。 ...

摩根大通发表研报指，百威亚太公布去年末季收入为10.73亿美元(有机收入按年跌4.2%)，相对市场预期 为10.8亿美元，大摩预期为10.7亿美元；经调整EBITDA为1.67亿美元(有机收入按年跌24.7%)，低于市 场预期的1.83亿美元，亦低于大摩预期的2.02亿美元；经调整净亏损1200万美元。期内，集团在中国市 场销售下跌11.4%，销量下跌3.9%(跌幅收窄，市场份额回稳)，有机平均售价按年下跌7.7%，主因贸易 渠道及居家/新兴渠道投资增加。该行予集团目标价9港元，评级"增持"。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) with a current price of HKD 7.83 [1] Core Insights - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of USD 5.764 billion for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.1%. The normalized EBITDA was USD 1.588 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year. In Q4 2025, revenue was USD 1.073 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [5] - The company plans to distribute dividends of USD 750 million for 2025, unchanged from 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - For 2025, Budweiser APAC achieved a total sales volume of 796.58 million hectoliters, down 6.0% year-on-year. The revenue per hectoliter for the year decreased by 0.2% [5] - In Q4 2025, the sales volume was 135.18 million hectoliters, with a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year. Revenue per hectoliter fell by 3.5% [5] Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 sales volume grew by 0.1% year-on-year, but revenue and revenue per hectoliter declined by 5.6% and 5.7%, respectively. Normalized EBITDA in this region fell by 40.0% year-on-year [6] - The Indian market showed strong growth, with high-end and super high-end products accounting for over two-thirds of total revenue, contributing more than 20% to revenue growth [6] - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q4 2025 revenue declined by 0.6% year-on-year, with sales volume down 3.7%. Revenue per hectoliter increased by 3.2% [6] China Market Focus - The Chinese market remains under pressure, with Q4 2025 sales volume down 3.9% year-on-year, primarily due to weak on-the-go channels and delayed shipments related to the Lunar New Year [7] - The company is increasing investments in channel and product mix expansion, focusing on high-end and digital channel strategies for 2026 [8] Profitability Forecast - The report lowers the net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 to USD 621 million and USD 680 million, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 9% and 7% [8] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 21x for 2026, 20x for 2027, and 18x for 2028, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's competitive advantage in high-end and super high-end segments [8]

Market Overview - On February 12, Hong Kong stocks opened lower and closed down, with the Hang Seng Index falling 233 points (0.8%) to close at 27,032 points[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 91 points (1.6%) to close at 5,408 points, with total market turnover increasing to HKD 238.7 billion[1] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 4.57 billion, down from the previous day's net inflow of HKD 4.82 billion[1] Company Performance - Tencent (700 HK) fell 2.3% to a six-month low, with a year-to-date decline of over 8% due to perceived lag in AI development compared to competitors like ByteDance and Alibaba[1] - SenseTime (20 HK) surged 6.7%, while Zhizhu (2513 HK) rose 28.7% after releasing a new flagship model[1] - Lenovo Group (992 HK) reported a 36% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit for Q3, yet its stock price fell 4.6%[1] U.S. Market Insights - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased from 232,000 to 227,000, slightly above expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.862 million, exceeding the expected 1.85 million[2] - The Dow Jones Index fell 669 points (1.3%) to 49,451 points, the Nasdaq dropped 469 points (2.0%) to 22,597 points, and the S&P 500 declined by 108 points to 6,832 points[2] - Gold and silver prices fell by 3% and 8%, respectively, as investors awaited inflation data[2] Macro Dynamics - The China Passenger Car Association reported a 13.9% year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger cars in January, with new energy vehicle sales down 20.0%[3] - The decline was attributed to market factors and adjustments in the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy[3] Industry Trends - In the consumer sector, Budweiser APAC (1876 HK) reported a 4.2% year-on-year decline in revenue for Q4, with an adjusted EBITDA drop of 24.7%, leading to a 5.2% stock price decrease[4] - The healthcare sector saw the Hang Seng Healthcare Index drop 1.4%, with WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) down 0.1% despite strong project acquisition capabilities[4] - The renewable energy and utilities sector experienced gains, with notable increases in stock prices for Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) by 12.4% and Harbin Electric (1133 HK) by 13.7%[5]

销量端，中国区4Q25销量同比下滑3.9%，主因公司核心的餐饮、夜场等渠道表现持续疲软。单价端， 4Q25中国区ASP同比-7.7%，主因公司加大对非现饮渠道的投入加之非现饮渠道占比提升对应产品结构 中枢下移。利润端，4Q25公司享受一定的原料成本下降与运营优化红利，但受经营杠杆刚性、总部营 销费用摊派及政府补助减少因素影响，中国区EBITDA同比-42.3%。 其他区域：印度延续增长态势，韩国盈利等待修复 亚太东部：销量端，因韩国消费环境疲软加之同期高基数，4Q25东部销量同比-1.3%。单价端，受益于 4Q25核心品类提价动作及2024年高端部分提价红利延续，东部四季度ASP同比+2.5%，利润端，因总部 费用摊派及韩国区员工薪资调整，使得4Q25东部EBITDA同比-9.8%。此外，公司的印度市场在结构升 级延续下保持高增长态势，对冲部分中国区压力。 中金发布研报称，考虑百威亚太(01876)或适度加大投入，下调26年EBITDA7.1%至15.93亿美元，引入 27年EBITDA16.37亿美元。当前股价对应26/27年6.5/6.2倍EV/EBITDA，因股息率托底，该行维持目标 股价9.80港元/ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that China International Capital Corporation (CICC) has lowered Budweiser APAC's (01876) 2026 EBITDA forecast by 7.1% to $1.593 billion and introduced a 2027 EBITDA forecast of $1.637 billion, maintaining a target price of HKD 9.80 per share, which implies a 25.2% upside potential from the current stock price [1] Group 2 - For Q4 2025, the company's performance was in line with CICC's expectations, with revenue, sales volume, average selling price (ASP), and EBITDA showing year-on-year declines of -4.2%, -0.7%, -3.5%, and -24.7% respectively, particularly in China where these figures were -11.4%, -3.9%, -7.7%, and -42.3% [2] Group 3 - In the China region, Q4 2025 faced weak demand and deepened channel adjustments, leading to a 3.9% year-on-year decline in sales volume, primarily due to the poor performance in key channels like dining and nightlife, while ASP dropped by 7.7% due to increased investment in off-premise channels [3] Group 4 - Other regions showed mixed results, with India continuing to grow while South Korea's profitability awaited recovery; in the Eastern Asia region, sales volume declined by 1.3% year-on-year due to a weak consumption environment in South Korea, although ASP increased by 2.5% due to price hikes in core categories [4] Group 5 - The company has set a growth-first strategy for 2026, aiming to proactively address market challenges, with the current on-premise channel share at a historical low, suggesting limited downside potential; if the on-premise channel recovers, Budweiser could exhibit stronger-than-industry elasticity [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the Hong Kong stock market, specifically the Hang Seng Index, which decreased by 0.9%, along with the Hang Seng Tech Index, which fell by 1.7% [1][2] - The market experienced a pullback after three consecutive days of gains, with concerns about the impact of AI and competition within the industry [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The Hang Seng Tech Index faced significant pressure from two main catalysts, leading to a decline in performance [2] - Southbound capital saw a slight increase in buying activity, but its trading volume remained around 20% of total transactions [2] - Short positions underperformed compared to the Hang Seng Index, indicating pressure on some short sellers [3] - The A-share market exhibited indecisiveness ahead of the holiday, reflecting cautious market sentiment [3] Company-Specific Highlights - Lenovo's stock dropped by 4.6% after reporting a revenue increase to $22.2 billion, which was better than expected, but net profit for the December quarter fell by 21% [4] - Meituan's performance declined by 4.5%, influenced by Alibaba's increased investment in instant shopping and heightened industry competition [4] - NetEase's stock fell due to underwhelming game sales [5] - The consumer staples sector weakened, particularly beverage stocks like Budweiser APAC (-5.2%) and Tsingtao Brewery (-3.1%), primarily due to technical corrections [5] Other Important Insights - The materials sector showed strong performance driven by rising gold and lithium prices [5] - The industrial sector saw gains in logistics and equipment stocks [6] - The trading desk recorded significant buying activity in the mining and materials sectors, particularly in Zijin Mining [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - Uncertainty in index futures remains high, and attention should be paid to position management [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Index Futures Data Tracking - On February 12, the closing prices of the four major index futures contracts showed mixed trends: IF rose 0.07%, IH fell 0.29%, IC rose 1.24%, and IM rose 1% [1] - The total trading volume of index futures increased, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm has increased. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 6,363 lots, IH by 2,280 lots, IC by 12,192 lots, and IM by 21,933 lots [2] - In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 945 lots, IH by 133 lots, while IC increased by 3,605 lots, and IM increased by 4,216 lots [2] 2. Top 20 Member Position Changes - The position changes of the top 20 members in each index futures contract vary. For example, in the IF2602 contract, long positions increased by 1,825 lots with a net change of 82 lots, and short positions increased by 2,886 lots with a net change of 1,042 lots [5] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 the most bullish [6] 4. Important Drivers - Concerns about AI eroding corporate profits led to a sharp decline in the US stock market, causing a broad decline in risk assets. Technology stocks led the decline, with the Nasdaq falling more than 2%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling 3% [6] - Trump's tariff policies face major uncertainties. The US House of Representatives passed a resolution against Trump's tariff on Canada, and the future of the USMCA also faces significant uncertainties [7] - The Chinese central bank will conduct a 1 - trillion - yuan six - month outright reverse repurchase operation on February 13, with an incremental scale of 500 billion yuan [6] 5. Market Performance - A - shares showed narrow - range fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.05% to 4,134.02 points. Power stocks strengthened, while consumer stocks such as film and television, retail, and food underperformed [7] - Hong Kong stocks fluctuated and declined. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.86% to 27,032.54 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.65% to 5,408.98 points [8]

Core Insights - The company's 4Q25 performance aligns with expectations, showing a decline in revenue, sales volume, ASP, and EBITDA, particularly in the Chinese market [1] - The company aims for growth in 2026, adopting a proactive approach to market challenges, with potential for recovery in the on-premise channel [2] Financial Performance - 4Q25 revenue, sales volume, ASP, and EBITDA decreased by 4.2%, 0.7%, 3.5%, and 24.7% year-on-year, respectively, with the Chinese market showing declines of 11.4%, 3.9%, 7.7%, and 42.3% [1] - The EBITDA forecast for 2026 is adjusted down by 7.1% to $1.593 billion, with a new estimate for 2027 at $1.637 billion [2] Market Trends - In China, weak demand and channel adjustments continue to pressure volume and pricing, with a 3.9% decline in sales volume attributed to poor performance in key channels [1] - The Indian market continues to show strong growth, helping to offset pressures from the Chinese market [1] Strategic Outlook - The company is prioritizing growth in 2026, with expectations for stabilization as the macro environment improves and strategic adjustments are made [2] - The current stock price reflects a valuation of 6.5x and 6.2x EV/EBITDA for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a target price of HKD 9.80 per share indicating a potential upside of 25.2% [2]