记者丨江佩佩 胡光旗 见习记者张嘉钰 编辑丨谢珍 视频丨曾婷芳 见习编辑陈泽锴 金银铜价格持续创新高。 12月24日，A股有色金属板块走强，截至发稿，中矿资源涨超6%，盛达资源、兴业银锡涨超 4%，电工合金、兴业银锡、新威凌、北方铜业、深圳新星等个股跟涨。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | | 中矿资源 | 76.19 | 6.83% | | 盛达资源 | 31.83 | 4.53% | | 兴业银锡 | 36.85 | 4.48% | | 大中矿业 | 32.46 | 4.27% | | 斯瑞新材 | 34.14 | 3.55% | | 华友钻业 | 67.80 | 3.01% | | 湖南日銀 | 6.79 | 2.88% | | 雅化集团 | 25.00 | 2.38% | | 白银有色 | 5.80 | 2.11% | | 赣锋锂业 | 67.67 | 1.97% | | 天齐锂业 | 56.75 | 1.74% | | 江西铜业 | 42.71 | 1.50% | | 北方铜业 | 14.71 | 1.45% | | 腾远钻业 | 66.98 | 1.1 ...

花旗发布研究报告，预计江西铜业股份明年铜冶炼业务毛利将同比下降，长期冶炼及精炼业务也面临下 行压力。不过，因铜、金及硫酸价格有望提高，公司明年整体毛利或上升。花旗将江西铜业H股目标价 从27.9港元提升至39.8港元，维持"买入"评级。 江西铜业股份(00358)午后跌近4%，截至发稿，跌3.11%，报36.8港元，成交额5.58港元。 消息面上，12月19日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将2026年铜精 矿加工精炼费用Benchmark分别定为0美元/吨和0美分/磅，低于2025年的21.25美元/吨和2.125美分/磅。 国信证券表示，零加工费具有很强的警示意义，可能促使相关部门出台铜冶炼行业"反内卷"措施，行业 远期格局有望向好。 来源：智通财经网 ...

江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)午后跌近4%，截至发稿，跌3.11%，报36.8港元，成交额5.58港元。 消息面上，12月19日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将2026年铜精 矿加工精炼费用Benchmark分别定为0美元/吨和0美分/磅，低于2025年的21.25美元/吨和2.125美分/磅。 国信证券表示，零加工费具有很强的警示意义，可能促使相关部门出台铜冶炼行业"反内卷"措施，行业 远期格局有望向好。 花旗发布研究报告，预计江西铜业股份明年铜冶炼业务毛利将同比下降，长期冶炼及精炼业务也面临下 行压力。不过，因铜、金及硫酸价格有望提高，公司明年整体毛利或上升。花旗将江西铜业H股目标价 从27.9港元提升至39.8港元，维持"买入"评级。 ...

消息面上，12月19日左右，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔和国内某头部铜冶炼厂达成协议，将2026年铜精 矿加工精炼费用Benchmark分别定为0美元/吨和0美分/磅，低于2025年的21.25美元/吨和2.125美分/磅。 国信证券表示，零加工费具有很强的警示意义，可能促使相关部门出台铜冶炼行业"反内卷"措施，行业 远期格局有望向好。 花旗发布研究报告，预计江西铜业股份明年铜冶炼业务毛利将同比下降，长期冶炼及精炼业务也面临下 行压力。不过，因铜、金及硫酸价格有望提高，公司明年整体毛利或上升。花旗将江西铜业H股目标价 从27.9港元提升至39.8港元，维持"买入"评级。 智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)午后跌近4%，截至发稿，跌3.11%，报36.8港元，成交额5.58 港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agreement between Antofagasta and a leading domestic copper smelter to set the 2026 copper concentrate processing fees at $0/ton and $0/lb is a significant reduction from the 2025 fees of $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/lb, indicating a shift in the copper smelting industry dynamics due to supply-demand mismatches and favorable by-product recovery rates [1][2]. Group 1: Processing Fees and Market Dynamics - The long-term processing fees for copper concentrate have been set at $0/ton for 2026, down from $21.25/ton in 2025, reflecting a challenging negotiation environment and a delay in finalizing agreements compared to previous years [1][2]. - The proportion of long-term contracts may decline, with many large smelters seeing their long-term contract ratios drop below 80% due to tight copper concentrate supplies, which could weaken smelter profitability [2]. Group 2: Factors Behind Zero Processing Fees - The zero processing fee is attributed to multiple factors, including supply disruptions and high recovery rates, with domestic smelting processes achieving recovery rates of 98% or higher, leading to additional profits from copper prices [3][4]. - Sulfuric acid by-product revenues are at historical highs, with current prices nearing 1000 yuan/ton, significantly contributing to smelter profitability [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Implications and Future Outlook - The zero processing fee serves as a warning sign for the industry, potentially prompting regulatory measures to address the situation and improve the long-term market structure [5]. - Chinese copper smelters are positioned competitively due to advanced technology and cost control, which may lead to a favorable industry outlook if capacity adjustment measures are implemented [7][8].

Macro and Strategy - Silver prices have reached historical highs, driven by its dual industrial and financial attributes, with over 60% of silver used in industrial applications as of December 2025 [6][7] - The recent surge in silver prices was triggered by significant physical deliveries at the New York COMEX, with registered inventories dropping over 70% from their peak in 2020 [6] - Long-term demand for silver is expected to grow due to industrial applications in solar energy, AI, and electric vehicles, alongside continued global monetary easing [6] Industry and Company - The agricultural sector is witnessing a bullish trend in livestock prices, particularly for beef and milk, with expectations of a cyclical recovery in the meat and dairy markets [24][26] - The price of live pigs has increased to 11.57 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 2.03%, while beef prices are also on an upward trajectory [24][26] - The media and internet industry has shown resilience, with a 0.54% increase in the sector, outperforming major indices, driven by upcoming IPOs and strong box office performances from films like "Avatar 3" [27][28] - The copper industry is facing a significant shift as long-term processing fees for copper concentrate have been set to zero, indicating a potential improvement in the industry structure [31] - The home appliance sector is experiencing a downturn, with retail sales down 19% year-on-year in November, although there are signs of recovery in exports for certain categories like refrigerators and washing machines [32][33]

当进入商品价格上涨周期时，行业的整体交投活跃度便会迅速提升。 12月22日，国际金价续创历史新高。截至发稿前，伦敦金现货已经超越今年10月高点，最高价达到4420美元/盎司，年内涨幅进一步扩大至 68%左右。 今年不断创出新高的金价，也吸引了更多的企业加大投资，仅今年12月便已经有江西铜业（600362.SH）、灵宝黄金（3330.HK）和洛阳钼业 （603933.SH）三家中资企业宣布收购海外黄金矿山等资产。 另据不完全统计，年初至今，中资矿企新增的境外黄金矿山收购项目已经达到297亿元左右，交易标的遍布非洲、南美、中亚等地。 "近年来，我国企业积极开展境外黄金资源开发合作，但仍需进一步加大对外合作力度，推动黄金产业融入全球产业链供应链，提升跨国经营 能力和水平，实现互利共赢。"工信部此前指出。 随着上述中资矿企并购强度的提升，其资源储备与中期黄金产量也将得到明显提升。 截至目前，全球前十大黄金企业中，中资企业仅有一家紫金矿业，而未来山东黄金、中国黄金等公司亦有望冲击全球十强。 综合性矿企"入局" 此外，公司以铜、金为主，其他小金属为辅的资源布局战略，在今年也变得愈发清晰。 其他上市公司中，黄金业务规模较小 ...

铜研究：供需分析及未来行情展望 20251222 目前铜市场的关键情况是什么？特别是 2026 年铜精矿基准价格的确定对市场 有何影响？ 目前铜市场的一个重要事件是 2026 年铜精矿基准价格的确定。上周五晚间， 张彤与安拓达成了 2026 年的铜精矿基准价格为 0 加工费。这一结果对国内冶 炼厂来说来之不易，显示出他们在谈判中付出了极大的努力。然而，这个 0 加 工费并不意味着 2026 年铜精矿供应会比预期更宽松。相反，我们认为这一数 字更多具有政治意义，而非实际意义。 预计 2026 年铜精矿的缺口将比 2025 年更大。中国有色金属工业协会表示要进一步反内卷，并可能设置产能天花板。 此外，小组也提议在 2016 年降低 10%的投入量，以应对负 TC 格局。因此， 尽管达成了 0 加工费协议，但实际能够签订这一条件订单的冶炼厂数量可能非 常有限，估计不到整体进口需求量的 20%。 铜精矿供应紧张背后的原因是什么？ 铜精矿供应紧张主要由于全球粗链产能增长过快，以及今年（2025 年）多地 大型矿山意外事件导致产量急剧下调。例如，今年初预计增量为 40 万吨，但 到年底基本被抹平。明年（2026 年）预计 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Basic Materials** sector, particularly highlighting the performance of **lithium**, **copper**, **aluminum**, and **steel** industries [2][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **MSCI China Materials Index** outperformed the broader MSCI China Index, rallying **9%** from its November low, while the overall market saw a modest recovery of **0.2%** [2]. - **Commodity Price Dynamics**: - Lithium prices have surged, followed by gold and copper, while aluminum and coal have seen price pullbacks but remain resilient. Steel prices continue to face pressure [2]. - **Demand Verification**: As 2026 approaches, market focus is expected to shift towards verifying demand, with supply-side disruptions posing a significant upside risk [2]. - **Regulatory Uncertainty**: The proposed cancellation of **27 mining rights** in Jiangxi, including lithium-bearing porcelain clay mines, is expected to have minimal impact on supply as these licenses had already expired [2]. - **Environmental Impact Assessments**: The first environmental impact assessment by CATL was announced, which may delay the restart of operations compared to previous expectations [2]. - **Lithium Price Forecast**: Prices are expected to exceed **Rmb 120k** if market conditions tighten in **1Q26** [2]. Additional Important Insights - **Steel Production**: November crude steel output in China was down **10.9% YoY**, with cumulative output for the year being **38mt lower YoY**. The profitability of steel mills is under pressure, with only **36%** reporting profits [18]. - **Aluminum Production**: In November, aluminum production was stable at **3.8mt**, with exports rebounding to **570kt**. Prices have fluctuated between **Rmb 21,000-22,100** [28]. - **Coal Production**: November raw coal output increased by **5% MoM** to **427mt**, with imports rising to **44mt** despite a **20% YoY** decline [25]. - **Investment Trends**: The property market remains under pressure, with new housing starts falling **28% YoY** and a decline in national sales values by **28% YoY** [10]. Market Forecasts - **Lithium Demand**: The outlook for lithium demand remains strong, with a **23%** increase in spot lithium carbonate prices since early November, driven by robust downstream demand [35]. - **FAI Trends**: Total Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) for the first eleven months of 2025 dropped **2.6% YoY**, with real estate investment contracting **15.9% YoY** [14]. Valuation Comparisons - A comparison of global diversified mining valuations highlighted key players in the copper and aluminum sectors, with Zijin Mining and CMOC being favored [40]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the China Basic Materials sector.

Core Viewpoint - The rising international gold prices have led to increased activity in the mining sector, with Chinese companies actively acquiring overseas gold mining assets, reflecting a strategic shift towards gold as a key resource allocation focus [1][3][8]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of December 22, international gold prices reached a historic high of $4,420 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 68% [1]. - The surge in gold prices has prompted Chinese companies to intensify investments, with several firms announcing acquisitions of overseas gold mining assets in December alone [1]. Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - Chinese mining companies have announced overseas gold mine acquisitions totaling around 29.7 billion yuan this year, with projects spanning Africa, South America, and Central Asia [2]. - Notable acquisitions include Zijin Mining's $1.2 billion purchase of Kazakhstan's RG gold mine and Luoyang Molybdenum's ongoing acquisitions in Brazil and Ecuador [2][3]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The gold sector has become the most sought-after asset in the global mining M&A market, with gold asset transactions expected to account for 70% of the total mining industry deals in 2024 [5]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the need for Chinese companies to enhance their global operational capabilities and integrate into the global gold supply chain [3][6]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts in Companies - Luoyang Molybdenum has shifted its focus towards gold, investing significantly in gold assets despite previously selling a major copper-gold mine [8]. - Companies like Shengton Mining are also restructuring their gold business, indicating a broader trend among diversified mining firms to prioritize gold in their resource strategies [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The potential for several Chinese gold mining companies to enter the global top ten is anticipated, driven by ongoing acquisitions and strategic resource management [19][20]. - The establishment of favorable investment conditions in countries like Ecuador, along with the resumption of mining rights, is expected to further enhance the operational landscape for Chinese mining firms [18][19].