点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 2025年1-10月，百城宅地成交建面同比-9%，成交楼面均价同比+15% 2025年1-10月，百城成交住宅类用地建面为1.84亿平，累计同比-9.3%；成交楼面均价为6,597元/平方米， 累计同比+14.9%。分能级城市来看，1-10月， 三线城市：供应住宅类用地建面为1.29亿平，累计同比-29.1%；成交建面为9,749万平，累计同比-18.6%； 成交楼面均价为3,643元/平方米，累计同比+7.4%。 2025年1-10月，新增土储价值排名前三为中海地产、招商蛇口、绿城中国 2025年1-10月，新增土储价值排名前三的房企为中海地产（1199亿元）、招商蛇口（1034亿元）、绿城中 国（651亿元）。 2025年 ...

以下文章来源于真叫卢俊 ，作者真叫卢俊团队 真叫卢俊 . 认认真真聊地产，实实在在谈买房。 本文来自微信公众号： 真叫卢俊 ，作者：有漾，原文标题：《「附赠率」不该也不能成为主旋 律》，题图来自：AI生成 "您这房子建筑面积100平，我们实际交付的使用面积能到140平，得房率绝对超过100%。"这样的销 售话术，在2025年的楼市中在很多城市几乎成为常规。 现在没有赠送面积的项目根本上不了牌桌，飘窗、阳台、露台是普通手段，其中送面积最多的已经 是"四代宅"。 "四代宅"的面积赠送是一种开发商的竞赛： 你送20%，我就送30%；你送30%，我就加码送40%。 我统计了一下西安近三年的四代宅产品赠送率，直观能看到附赠率越来越高。到了今年， 实得率全 部超过100%。 | | 项目 | 附赠率 | 得房率 | 露台进深 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2022年 | 金地玖峯悦 | 6.02% | 91% | 1.5m | | | 华润紫云府 | 4.52% | 85% | 1.5m | | 2023年 | 绿城海棠三章 | 18. 60% | 96% | 3.3m | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - In the first ten months of 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 9% year-on-year, while the average floor price increased by 15% [1][51] - The top three companies in terms of new land reserve value from January to October 2025 are China Overseas Land & Investment (119.9 billion), China Merchants Shekou (103.4 billion), and Greentown China (65.1 billion) [2][87] - The core 30 cities saw a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3% in residential land transaction area, but a 22% increase in average price [2][3] Summary by Sections Land Supply and Demand - In the first ten months of 2025, the total land supply in 100 cities was 1.113 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%, while the total land transaction area was 946 million square meters, down 7% [8] - The supply of residential land in 100 cities for the same period was 239 million square meters, a decrease of 19.1% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 184 million square meters, down 9.3% [18] Land Transaction Prices - The average floor price of residential land in 100 cities for the first ten months of 2025 was 6,597 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [51][62] - In the core 30 cities, the average floor price for residential land transactions was 11,423 yuan per square meter, up 21.8% year-on-year [3][95] Top 50 Real Estate Companies' Land Acquisition - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 55% year-on-year increase in new land reserve value, totaling 908.4 billion yuan from January to October 2025 [78] - The top three companies by new land reserve area are China Overseas Land & Investment (4.15 million square meters), Poly Developments (3.51 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.07 million square meters) [2][87] Core 30 Cities Land Transaction Situation - In October 2025, the core 30 cities recorded 133 residential land transactions, with a total area of 855 million square meters, down 43% year-on-year [92] - The cumulative total land transaction price in the core 30 cities from January to October 2025 was 946.5 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8% year-on-year [95][102] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong brand reputation and sales performance in core cities, such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou [4][118] - Consider companies with rich existing resources and operational brand competitiveness, like China Resources Land and Shanghai Lingang [4][118] - Look for long-term growth potential in property services, recommending companies like China Merchants Jinling and Greentown Services [4][118]

行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2025年11月23日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 证券研究报告 政策预期升温，优质地产配置价值凸显 地产行业周报 2 周度观点：政策预期升温，降低房贷利率仍有必要。随着2024年四季度销售基数抬升，10月全国商品房销售面积同比降18.8%，70个大 中城市新房/二手房价环比降0.5%和0.7%，且降幅较9月有所扩大。楼市量价承压背景下，近期市场政策预期有所升温。我们在2024年9 月18日发布的专题报告《供需框架下楼市趋势探讨》提到，海外楼市企稳关键在于居民购房意愿与能力的提升、最终带来供需格局的改 善。展望国内楼市，一方面仍需宏观政策发力稳定居民收入预期，提升购房能力，另一方面2025Q3加权房贷利率（3.06%）仍高于10月 百城住宅租金回报率（2.36%），通过降息/房贷加点变化/政府贴息等方式降低房贷利率增强购房相对吸引力仍有必要。 短期大盘波动加剧，优质地产配置价值凸显。1）优质地产相对滞涨，叠加楼市复苏仍不明朗，短期政策博弈性价比提升；2）中期维度 来看，"好房子"的趋势并不会因短期楼市调整发生改变，历史包袱较轻的品质房企有望 ...

Core Insights - The "Huangtutang Project" in Changsha has been publicly announced by the Changsha Natural Resources and Planning Bureau, which was jointly acquired by YuanKang and Xinyu after 50 rounds of bidding with a premium rate of 49% [1] Summary by Sections Project Details - The project is located in Furong District, with a total area of 17,786.95 square meters and a saleable area of 14,329.09 square meters, designated for commercial and residential use [2] - The starting price for the land was 36.798 million yuan, with the highest bid reaching 54.83 million yuan [2] - The floor price is approximately 11,156 yuan per square meter [1] Development Plans - The total construction area is planned to be 63,412.02 square meters, with a plot ratio of 3.43 and a residential-commercial ratio of 5.12% [4] - The project will consist of 5 residential buildings with a total of 331 residential units and 297 parking spaces [4][5] Location and Accessibility - The project is strategically located in the city center, adjacent to major roads and public transport, including the interchange station for Metro Lines 2 and 6 [7] - Nearby amenities include schools, hospitals, shopping centers, and parks, enhancing the project's attractiveness [7]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Overweight" rating, with a focus on real estate-related stocks due to expected policy support and market recovery [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for urban renewal, highlighting the government's commitment to improving living conditions and urban infrastructure, which is expected to support high-quality urban development [2][12]. - The real estate market is showing signs of pressure, with new home sales in 30 cities down 38.2% year-on-year, despite a 6.5% month-on-month increase [3][27]. - The report suggests that the competitive landscape in the real estate sector is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms expected to benefit from favorable policies and market conditions [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The real estate index decreased by 5.8% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.06 percentage points, ranking 20th among 31 sectors [2][16]. 2. New Home Sales - In the latest week, new home sales in 30 cities totaled 169.3 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 38.2% and a month-on-month increase of 6.5% [3][27]. - Year-to-date, new home sales in these cities have reached 85.89 million square meters, down 9.7% year-on-year [33]. 3. Second-Hand Home Sales - Second-hand home sales in 14 cities totaled 199.9 million square meters, down 12.6% year-on-year and slightly down 0.2% month-on-month [38][39]. - Cumulatively, second-hand home sales for the year have increased by 9.9% [38]. 4. Credit Bond Issuance - A total of 9 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, amounting to 4.71 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -1.79 billion yuan [4][48]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and those benefiting from urban renewal policies, including both state-owned and select private enterprises [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Tuanjie area in Xi'an is experiencing a significant surge in real estate activity, driven by urban renewal efforts, increased land supply, and improved infrastructure, making it a new hotspot in the Xi'an housing market [3][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Tuanjie area has seen a dramatic increase in new residential projects, with multiple developments being launched and selling out quickly, indicating strong demand [4][10]. - Projects like Greentown's Lvtin Fangfei and Baoyi's Runyuan have achieved "sold out" status upon opening, reflecting the area's rising popularity [4][5]. - The area has become a competitive landscape for major developers, with companies like Greentown, Baoyi, and others vying for market share [3][10]. Group 2: Urban Renewal Impact - Urban renewal initiatives have transformed the Tuanjie area from a suburban fringe into a desirable residential location, enhancing living conditions and infrastructure [7][8]. - The completion of urban renewal projects, including the Red Flag Railway Park, has significantly improved the area's ecological environment and living quality, attracting high-quality residents [7][8]. - The government's commitment to urban renewal is evident in the ongoing development of public amenities and infrastructure, which is expected to further boost property values [8][11]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The year 2024 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for the Tuanjie area, with the introduction of key educational institutions and transportation links, which will enhance its attractiveness [11][12]. - The unique product offerings of the new developments, such as higher usable space due to favorable policy conditions, contribute to their market success and perceived value [11][12]. - The combination of favorable market conditions, strategic location, and enhanced living standards positions the Tuanjie area for continued growth and investment opportunities [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - Greentown's project on Huangsha Island in Panyu has been officially announced, with a total investment of 1.16 billion yuan, aiming to construct 9 residential buildings and 1 supporting building, covering a planned construction area of approximately 19,000 square meters [1]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project is located in Huangsha Island, Panyu District, Guangzhou, with a total investment of 1.16 billion yuan [1]. - The project will consist of 9 residential buildings and 1 supporting building, with a total land area of 44,523.73 square meters and a buildable area of 17,414.01 square meters [1]. - The project is classified as a second-class land use (R2) with a floor area ratio of 1.01 and a height limit of 24 meters, indicating its low-density nature [2]. Group 2: Market Positioning - The estimated floor cost for the Huangsha Island project exceeds 60,000 yuan per square meter, providing significant pricing potential for the market [2]. - The project is expected to cater to the high-end improvement market, with predictions of it being developed into stacked villas or villa-type products due to its low density and height restrictions [5]. - The surrounding area has shown strong demand for villa-type products, with recent transactions in nearby developments indicating a willingness to pay high prices, such as a villa sold for over 8,000 yuan per square meter [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The Panyu improvement market has seen a shortage of villa-type products, with current mainstream new developments being high-rise, affordable housing priced around 32,000 to 46,000 yuan per square meter [7]. - The Huangsha Island project is positioned to leverage its low-density, riverside location, and proximity to the subway, combined with Greentown's brand strength, to capture the high-end market segment [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in certain Chinese real estate stocks is attributed to a favorable industry rumor, although it has not been officially confirmed [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Country Garden (02007) increased by 4%, reaching HKD 0.52 - Jianfa International Group (01908) rose by 2.88%, reaching HKD 17.04 - Longfor Group (00960) saw a 2.46% increase, reaching HKD 10 - Greentown China (03900) grew by 1.64%, reaching HKD 9.29 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the strength in the real estate sector is linked to a positive rumor from foreign media [1] - Vanke's upcoming temporary shareholders' meeting on November 20, 2025, is expected to address market trends [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - Vanke believes that with the continued implementation of policies, reasonable housing demand will gradually be realized, leading the industry out of its adjustment phase towards stable development [1] - Galaxy Securities indicates that in the later stages of urbanization, the real estate sector is expected to develop new models for high-quality growth, focusing on improving foundational systems and management [1] - The firm anticipates that as the industry achieves high-quality development, overall valuation recovery will occur, allowing leading real estate companies to improve operations and benefit from valuation recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate sector experienced a rebound on November 20, with several major companies seeing significant stock price increases, driven by expectations of supportive government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major real estate stocks such as Sunac China (01918.HK) rose by 6.02%, Vanke (02202.HK) by 3.69%, and Country Garden (02007.HK) by 3.09% [2][3]. - Other companies like China Overseas Grand Oceans Group (00081.HK) and Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) also joined the upward trend, indicating a broader market recovery [2]. Group 2: Policy Catalysts - The recent rally in the real estate market is attributed to rising expectations of new supportive policies from the Chinese government to counteract the sluggish market and prevent further financial instability [4][5]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is reportedly considering measures such as interest subsidies for new personal housing loans and increasing tax deductions for mortgage borrowers [5]. Group 3: Market Data and Trends - Current real estate data shows a continued decline, with a reported 18.8% year-on-year drop in national commercial housing sales area for October 2025, and a 24.3% decrease in sales value [6]. - The market is under pressure, with expectations for policy support growing as the sales figures continue to decline [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the combination of policy expectations, consumer recovery, and improvements in the Hong Kong market will catalyze the real estate sector's performance leading up to the end of the year [9]. - The upcoming "Hong Kong 100 Strong" list is anticipated to feature major real estate companies, reflecting their importance in the market [10].