Group 1: Domestic Flight Booking Trends - During the combined Mid-Autumn and National Day holiday, domestic flight ticket bookings exceeded 5.93 million, with an average daily booking increase of approximately 28% compared to the same period last year [1] - International flight bookings surpassed 1.4 million, with a daily booking increase of about 16% year-on-year [1] - Popular domestic routes included Beijing-Shanghai, Shanghai-Guangzhou, and Beijing-成都, while some international routes, such as those to Russia, saw significant increases in bookings, with a 33% rise in daily bookings compared to last year [1] Group 2: Electronic Ticketing Transition - Starting October 1, 2023, domestic airlines will transition to electronic travel itineraries, eliminating paper itineraries, in line with a broader push for digitalization in the aviation sector [3][4] - The transition is part of a government initiative to promote electronic invoicing in various sectors, with a full rollout of electronic itineraries planned by December 1, 2024 [3] - As of August 2023, over 40 million electronic itineraries had been issued, accounting for 43% of the total invoicing [3] Group 3: Cost and Environmental Impact - The shift to electronic itineraries is expected to reduce operational costs for airlines and promote environmental sustainability by decreasing paper usage [4] - It is estimated that airlines could save approximately 12 million in costs annually by eliminating paper itineraries, based on an average of 1,000 flights per day [4]

Market Overview - On September 22, the aviation and airport sector declined by 0.27%, with Xiamen Airport leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3828.58, up 0.22%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97, up 0.67% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included: - CITIC Hainan Airlines (Code: 6600000) closed at 22.68, up 2.81% with a trading volume of 220,300 shares and a turnover of 497 million yuan [1] - China National Aviation (Code: 601111) closed at 7.88, up 0.51% with a trading volume of 543,300 shares [1] - Xiamen Airport (Code: 600897) closed at 14.46, down 1.57% with a trading volume of 16,800 shares and a turnover of 24.29 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 126 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 126 million yuan [2] - The capital flow for individual stocks showed: - CITIC Hainan Airlines had a net inflow of 39.99 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Xiamen Airport had a net inflow of 4.81 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - China Eastern Airlines (Code: 600115) had a net inflow of 24.98 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Industry Overview - The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) is at 3981 points, down 8.5% year-on-year and up 0.30% month-on-month [1] - Liquid chemical domestic shipping prices are at 159 RMB/ton, down 6.31% year-on-year and stable month-on-month [1][3] - The operating rates for paraxylene (PX), methanol, and ethylene glycol are 85.3%, 79.4%, and 70.9% respectively, with PX down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, methanol down 1.8 percentage points month-on-month and 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, and ethylene glycol down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month but up 15.3% year-on-year [1][3] Express Delivery - In August, express delivery volume grew approximately 12% year-on-year, with SF Holding leading the growth [2] - The total express delivery volume for the week of September 8-14 was about 3.83 billion pieces, down 0.67% month-on-month and up 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The average revenue per express delivery piece decreased by 7.2% year-on-year to 7.37 RMB [2] Logistics - The chemical shipping prices remained stable, and there is a recommendation for Haichen Co. due to improved demand [3] - The CCPI and liquid chemical shipping prices indicate a challenging environment for chemical logistics [3] Aviation - In August, civil aviation passenger volume increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with Spring Airlines leading in RPK growth [4] - The average daily flight operations increased by 6.05% year-on-year, with domestic flights up 5.39% and international flights up 10.03% [4] - The Brent crude oil futures price is at $66.68/barrel, down 0.46% month-on-month and down 9.5% year-on-year [4] Shipping - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1120.23 points, down 0.5% month-on-month and down 31.6% year-on-year [5] - The BDTI index for crude oil transportation increased by 5.1% month-on-month and 28.1% year-on-year [5] - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping is at 2179 points, up 4.3% month-on-month and up 13.0% year-on-year [5] Road and Rail Ports - Port cargo throughput increased by 1.8% month-on-month and 9.2% year-on-year, with container throughput up 0.1% month-on-month and 13.5% year-on-year [6] - The total number of trucks passing through highways was 57.71 million, up 6.17% month-on-month but down 0.58% year-on-year [6] - The dividend yield of major road operators is higher than the current yield of China's ten-year government bonds [6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on shipping, e-commerce, logistics, aviation, chemical, and non-ferrous metal industries Core Insights and Arguments Shipping Industry - The BDI index typically rises significantly during historical interest rate cut cycles, with current dry bulk freight rates at a low point. Recommendations include China Merchants Energy Shipping and Haitong Development [1][3] - Recent surge in cruise freight rates from over 30,000 to 96,000 RMB, driven by supply-demand reversal due to OPEC's production adjustments and reduced VLOC deliveries. Recommended companies include China Merchants Energy Shipping, which has dual advantages in cruise and dry bulk shipping [1][7] E-commerce and Logistics - Interest rate cuts are expected to benefit emerging market infrastructure and consumption, leading to increased capital inflow. Jitu Express is highlighted for its growth potential in Southeast Asia and Latin America [1][4][5] - The express delivery industry has seen price increases, with significant price hikes in August and September, covering 90% of national parcel volume. Companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Jitu Express are recommended [1][9][10] Aviation Sector - The depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the RMB are favorable for the aviation sector, leading to significant exchange gains. Recommended stocks include Huaxia Airlines, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [1][6] Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with a narrowing decline in PPI. Key sub-sectors to watch include olefins (Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical), polyester, organic silicon (Xin'an Chemical, Sanyou Chemical, Dongyue Silicon), and agricultural chemicals (Yara International, Oriental Tower) [1][11][12][13] - The overall chemical industry is expected to improve due to liquidity easing and policy catalysts, with a current profit margin of 4.1%, historically low [1][13] Non-Ferrous Metals - The market remains bullish on the non-ferrous metals sector, with expectations for copper and gold to lead price increases. Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Metal Mining, Jiangxi Copper H shares, and Shandong Gold H shares [2][15] Coal Industry - The coal sector has performed strongly, with prices rising nearly 4% due to futures increases and robust demand. Key companies to watch include Liugang Huaneng, Huayang Co., and China Shenhua [16][17] - The average daily sales of coal companies reached 7.22 million tons, with a healthy inventory level of 25.54 million tons, indicating a stable supply-demand situation [17] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for further price increases in the express delivery sector as the Double Eleven shopping festival approaches, with optimistic performance expectations for listed companies [1][10] - The chemical sector's price adjustments and the impact of oil price fluctuations on various chemical products, highlighting the need to monitor policy changes [1][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [13] Core Insights - The transportation industry is expected to see improvements in profitability across various sub-sectors in Q3 2025, driven by domestic demand recovery and resilient international demand [2][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] Summary by Sub-Sector Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing subdued demand but is benefiting from reduced costs, leading to an overall improvement in profitability for Q3 2025. The international flight recovery remains strong, and oil prices have significantly decreased [6][19][24] Airports - Domestic airport traffic is recovering, with international flights also increasing. Revenue is expected to improve steadily, with key airports benefiting from both domestic and international demand growth [2][6][24][26] Express Delivery - The "anti-involution" policy is driving price increases in the express delivery sector, leading to improved profitability for e-commerce deliveries. However, operational costs are temporarily pressuring profit margins [2][6][28][30] Logistics - The logistics sector is stabilizing, with major players expected to see profit growth due to improved supply chain performance and resilient cross-border logistics profitability [2][6][7][31] Maritime Transport - The maritime sector is witnessing a divergence in profitability among different shipping types. While container shipping faces challenges, oil tanker profits are improving due to favorable market conditions [2][6][8][33][37] Ports - Port operations are expected to see improved profitability in bulk cargo handling, while container throughput remains resilient despite external pressures [2][6][9][39] Highways - Highway traffic is relatively stable, with a slight increase in profitability anticipated for Q3 2025, supported by steady freight and passenger traffic [2][10][41] Railways - Railway passenger and freight volumes are showing mixed trends, with a focus on opportunities arising from high-speed rail transformations. Overall, passenger transport is expected to grow, while freight transport is improving [2][11][43][44]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨运输 [Table_Title] 快递单价涨幅超预期，油运运价延续上行 ——交运周专题 2025W38 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 出行链：客座率持续改善，裸票价格同比转正 海运：油运延续上行，集运挺价落空 物流：单价数据超预期，看好"反内卷"盈利弹性 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 [Table_Title 快递单价涨幅超预期，油运运价延续上行 2] ——交运周专题 2025W38 [Table_Summary2] 出行链：客座率持续改善，裸票价格同比转正 9 月 19 日，航空运量数据增速有所改善，国内客运量七日移动平均同比增加 11%，国际客运 量七日移动平均同比增加 15%； ...

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines has shown positive growth in various operational metrics for August 2025, particularly in international passenger traffic and available ton-kilometers, indicating a strong recovery and expansion in its operations [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 19, 2025, Spring Airlines' stock closed at 54.14 yuan, up 1.86% from the previous week [1]. - The stock reached a high of 55.13 yuan and a low of 52.3 yuan during the week [1]. - The company's current market capitalization is 52.967 billion yuan, ranking 6th in the aviation sector and 316th among all A-shares [1]. Group 2: Operational Data - In August 2025, Spring Airlines did not add any new aircraft or routes, maintaining a fleet of 134 Airbus A320 series aircraft [2][3]. - The available ton-kilometers for August was 61,891.23 million ton-kilometers, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.17%, with international growth at 39.83% [2][3]. - Passenger turnover for August was 553,449.76 million passenger-kilometers, up 12.23% year-on-year, with international passenger turnover increasing by 26.31% [2][3]. - Total passenger numbers reached 319.805 thousand, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.50%, with international passenger numbers growing by 36.66% [2][3]. - The overall load factor was 78.21%, down 6.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the passenger load factor was 93.87%, up 0.17 percentage points [2]. - The cargo and mail load factor was 16.06%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 21.94% [2].

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines has achieved profitability through a combination of cost-saving measures and a low-cost business model, distinguishing itself from major state-owned airlines that are currently facing losses [6][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Spring Airlines reported a net profit of 11.69 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, while major airlines like Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines reported losses exceeding 1 billion yuan each [7]. - Since its listing in 2015, Spring Airlines has only recorded two years of losses, achieving a record net profit of 2.273 billion yuan in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Operational Efficiency - The airline's available seat kilometers and passenger turnover increased by 9.95% and 9.06% year-on-year, respectively, leading the industry in these metrics [6]. - Spring Airlines operates a fleet of 134 Airbus A320 series aircraft, with a higher seating capacity of 186 and 240 seats compared to the 158 seats of its competitors [8]. Group 3: Cost Management - The unit cost for Spring Airlines was 0.303 yuan per available seat kilometer, a 3.5% decrease from the previous year, while Air China's unit cost was 0.44 yuan [7][8]. - The airline's business model emphasizes "two singles" (single aircraft type and single cabin class), "two highs" (high seat occupancy and high aircraft utilization), and "two lows" (low sales and management costs) to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [8][11]. Group 4: Revenue Generation - Spring Airlines employs a low-cost strategy by offering promotional fares, attracting price-sensitive travelers and maintaining high occupancy rates [7][9]. - The airline has a high direct sales ratio, significantly above the industry average, which helps reduce sales expenses [12]. - Additional revenue streams are generated through ancillary services, such as baggage fees and in-flight purchases, which are offered separately from the base ticket price [12].

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines has achieved significant profitability in the competitive airline industry, primarily through its low-cost operating model and effective cost control strategies [4][6][10]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 10.304 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.169 billion yuan, making it the most profitable airline among A-share listed companies [5][9]. - Spring Airlines' net profit for 2024 reached a record high of 2.273 billion yuan, while the three major state-owned airlines reported losses exceeding 1 billion yuan each in the same period [9]. Operational Metrics - Spring Airlines led the industry with a 9.95% increase in available seat kilometers and a 93.87% passenger load factor in August 2025 [8][9]. - The airline operates a fleet of 134 Airbus A320 series aircraft with an average age of 7.76 years, covering major business and tourist cities in China and Southeast Asia [8]. Cost Control Strategies - The airline's unit cost was reported at 0.303 yuan per available seat kilometer, a 3.5% decrease from the previous year, compared to 0.44 yuan for China National Airlines [14]. - Spring Airlines employs a "two singles, two highs, and two lows" operational model to minimize costs and maximize efficiency [16]. Pricing Strategy - The airline's pricing strategy focuses on low fares, attracting price-sensitive travelers and maintaining high occupancy rates, with an average load factor of 90.52% in the first half of 2025 [12][13]. - Promotional activities have included extremely low fares, such as 9 yuan tickets for flights to Jeju Island, which further enhance customer attraction [12]. Revenue Diversification - Spring Airlines has separated ancillary services from ticket prices, allowing for additional revenue streams from services like baggage handling and in-flight meals, which contributed 1.03 billion yuan in 2024 [19][20]. - The airline's direct sales through its official website accounted for 99.7% of its sales channels, significantly reducing sales costs compared to industry averages [19]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The low-cost airline segment currently holds a 12.9% market share in China's domestic routes, indicating substantial growth potential as demand for affordable air travel increases [21].

Core Insights - Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 10.304 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.169 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, becoming the "profit champion" among A-share airlines [3] - The airline's strategy involves maximizing passenger capacity, with 240 seats on its A321neo compared to 198 seats on Air China's equivalent, leading to higher profitability per flight [3] - The company's cost-saving measures include not providing free meals, minimizing seat spacing, and charging for excess baggage, which contribute to its ability to offer lower ticket prices while maintaining profitability [3][4] Financial Performance - Spring Airlines achieved a net profit of 1.169 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a significant financial success in a volatile industry [3] - The airline has only recorded losses in two out of the ten years since its IPO in 2015, demonstrating its financial stability and resilience [3] Business Strategy - The airline's operational model focuses on "tight seating" to reduce costs and offer lower fares, appealing to customers whose primary concern is reaching their destination [4] - The founder's philosophy emphasizes that half of the profit comes from earnings and the other half from cost savings, reflecting a strategic approach to financial management [3]