Market Performance - The special steel sector increased by 3.24% on February 3, with Changbao Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4067.74, up 1.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14127.1, up 2.19% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Changbao Co., Ltd. (002478) closed at 10.27, with a rise of 7.99% and a trading volume of 448,300 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 451 million [1] - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) closed at 33.88, up 6.94%, with a trading volume of 141,100 shares and a transaction value of 466 million [1] - Fushun Special Steel (665009) closed at 6.61, up 4.09%, with a trading volume of 999,300 shares and a transaction value of 658 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) at 5.01 (+3.94%), Fangda Special Steel (600507) at 6.16 (+3.88%), and Shengde Yantai (300881) at 40.50 (+2.22%) [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The special steel sector experienced a net outflow of 85.2862 million from institutional investors and 15.4187 million from retail investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 101 million [1] - Specific stock capital flows indicate that Shagang Co. (002075) had a net inflow of 27.8528 million from institutional investors, while Changbao Co. (002478) had a net outflow of 26.0742 million [2] - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) also saw a net inflow of 20.5370 million from institutional investors, while West Ning Special Steel (600117) had a net inflow of 9.5394 million [2]

2月3日，久立特材涨5.11%，截至发稿，报33.30元/股，成交3.19亿元，换手率1.02%，总市值325.40亿 元。 资料显示，浙江久立特材科技股份有限公司位于浙江省湖州市吴兴区中兴大道1899号，成立日期2004年 1月8日，上市日期2009年12月11日，公司主营业务涉及工业用不锈钢管及特种合金的管材、管件、法 兰、棒材及管道预制件的研发、生产、销售。主营业务收入构成为：无缝管37.97%，复合管33.57%， 焊接管13.44%，合金材料6.25%，其他5.54%，管件3.23%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，长城基金旗下1只基金重仓久立特材。长城精选进取3个月持有混合发起式(FOF)A （019678）四季度持有股数2700股，与上期相比持股数量不变，占基金净值比例为0.55%，位居第七大 重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约4374元。 长城精选进取3个月持有混合发起式(FOF)A（019678）成立日期2023年11月20日，最新规模1394.69万。 今年以来收益5.99%，同类排名455/1327；近一年收益26.08%，同类排名405/1051；成立以来收益 31.75%。 长城精选 ...

Market Overview - The special steel sector experienced a decline of 7.3% on February 2, with CITIC Special Steel leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4015.75, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13824.35, down 2.69% [1] Stock Performance - CITIC Special Steel (000708) closed at 14.78, down 9.99% with a trading volume of 449,200 shares and a transaction value of 685 million yuan [1] - Fangda Special Steel (600507) closed at 5.93, down 8.49% with a trading volume of 752,300 shares [1] - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) closed at 4.82, down 7.84% with a trading volume of 1,597,700 shares [1] - Other notable declines include Jiuli Special Materials (002318) down 5.80%, Shagang Group (002075) down 5.56%, and Xining Special Steel (600117) down 4.83% [1] Capital Flow - The special steel sector saw a net outflow of 60.03 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 102 million yuan [1] - However, there was a net inflow of 162 million yuan from speculative funds [1] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825) had a main fund net inflow of 15.79 million yuan, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 37.95 million yuan [2] - Jiuli Special Materials (002318) recorded a main fund net inflow of 10.71 million yuan, with retail funds experiencing a net outflow of 29.56 million yuan [2] - Shagang Group (002075) had a main fund net inflow of 5.83 million yuan, but retail funds saw a significant net outflow of 54.47 million yuan [2] - CITIC Special Steel (000708) reported a main fund net outflow of 643,900 yuan, with a small net inflow from speculative funds [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [6] Core Insights - The steel industry accounts for approximately 15% of the national carbon emissions, making it the highest carbon-emitting manufacturing sector. The implementation of low-carbon steelmaking is a significant challenge for Chinese steel companies [2][4] - The "carbon peak" target was first proposed in 2020, evolving into a policy of stabilizing crude steel production. The current deepening of carbon neutrality policies may accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity in the steel industry [2][4] - As the Spring Festival approaches, demand and production are slowing down, leading to a low inventory and low expectation state in the steel market. The overall market is characterized by low production, low inventory, and low expectations, awaiting macro or industrial catalysts [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - Demand continues to weaken with a year-on-year decrease of 2.02% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.67% in apparent consumption of major steel products [4] - Steel production has slightly increased, with a year-on-year rise of 2.19% and a month-on-month rise of 0.48% in total steel output [4] - Total steel inventory has increased by 1.57% month-on-month and 13.05% year-on-year [4] Section 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The carbon intensity reduction target has been a binding indicator since the 12th Five-Year Plan, with a projected reduction of about 7.8% by the end of 2024, which is below expectations [4] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a carbon emission trading market allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, marking a significant step towards operationalizing carbon control policies [4] Section 3: Investment Opportunities - Short-term focus on energy-saving and carbon-reduction modifications in existing blast furnace-converter processes is a practical choice for steel companies [5] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise in electric arc furnace steelmaking and hydrogen metallurgy as the dual carbon policy deepens [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic fluctuations [1] - The overall performance of the steel sector is expected to outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by over 10% in the next six months [22] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 7.1% [4] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is at 3,240 CNY per ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 24% [4] - The price of hot-rolled steel is at 3,250 CNY per ton, with a slight year-to-date decrease of 0.3% [4] Inventory - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 890,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.6% and a year-to-date increase of 2.1% [6] - The total inventory at steel mills is 388,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.2% and a year-to-date increase of 0.6% [6] - The port inventory of iron ore stands at 17,019,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.5% and a year-to-date increase of 7.3% [6] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be stable, with daily molten iron production expected to maintain a steady rate [10] - The report highlights that the steel mills' profitability remains a key factor in the industry's performance [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic fluctuations [1] - The overall performance of the steel sector is expected to outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by over 10% in the next six months [21] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 7.1% [4] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is at 3,240 CNY per ton, with a weekly change of -0.6% and a year-to-date change of -2.4% [4] - The iron ore price index is at 104 USD per ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 4.0% [4] Inventory - The total social inventory of the five major steel products is 8.9 million tons, with a weekly increase of 2.6% and a year-to-date increase of 21% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 3.88 million tons, with a weekly change of 0% and a year-to-date change of 0.6% [5] - The port inventory of iron ore stands at 17.019 million tons, with a weekly increase of 1.5% and a year-to-date increase of 7.3% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of the five major steel products is projected to be around 2.5 million tons [9] - The average daily molten iron production is expected to be approximately 2.4 million tons [9] - The operating rate of blast furnaces across 247 steel mills is a critical indicator of supply dynamics [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the contraction in supply may accelerate, facilitating a quicker industry upturn [3][4]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Steel prices have decreased, with the Shanghai rebar price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.61%. The total inventory of steel has increased by 1.70% to 12.7851 million tons [8][12]. - Apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, down 0.96% week-on-week but up 28.96% year-on-year [21]. - The production of five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons, an increase of 0.44% week-on-week [12][37]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating a market-driven supply clearance is beginning to occur [4]. - The construction sector's demand for steel is expected to stabilize, while demand from infrastructure and manufacturing is projected to grow steadily [4]. Profitability and Production Margins - The average gross profit for rebar was 196.9 CNY/ton, down 11.7 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased by 2.3 CNY/ton to 46.9 CNY/ton [39]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel companies was 39.39%, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous week [28]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4]. - It also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies like Hebei Resources and Erdos, which may benefit from a recovery in demand [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, while supply-side constraints are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [3][5] - The industry has been experiencing prolonged micro-profit conditions, and market-driven supply adjustments have begun to emerge [3][5] - The report highlights that approximately 60% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, indicating ongoing supply-side challenges [5] Summary by Sections Steel - Steel prices have decreased week-on-week, with the Shanghai rebar price dropping by 20 CNY/ton to 3240 CNY/ton, a decline of 0.61% [8] - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, down 0.96% week-on-week but up 28.96% year-on-year [21] - The total inventory of steel reached 12.7851 million tons, increasing by 1.70% week-on-week, maintaining a low level [5][12] - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills rose to 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week [28] - The average gross profit for rebar was 196.9 CNY/ton, down 11.7 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased by 2.3 CNY/ton to 46.9 CNY/ton [39] Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased, with the price for PB powder (61.5% iron content) at 792 CNY/ton, down 9 CNY/ton [46] - The port inventory of iron ore rose to 17.022 million tons, an increase of 1.53% [50] - The total shipment volume of major iron ore producers increased, with Brazil's shipment at 4.852 million tons, up 1.06% week-on-week [51] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with leading technology and product structures, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as low-cost firms like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [5] - It also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies benefiting from demand recovery trends, recommending Hebei Resources and Erdos among others [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a slight decline in daily molten iron production, with the average dropping to 227.9 thousand tons, while steel production has seen a minor increase [13]. - Total steel inventory has expanded, with a week-on-week increase of 1.7%, indicating a growing supply in the market [23]. - Apparent consumption of steel has weakened slightly, with rebar demand decreasing by 13.4% week-on-week [39]. - Iron ore prices are trending downwards, influenced by increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, alongside rising port inventories [48]. - The current steel price index has decreased by 0.2% week-on-week, reflecting a general weakening in the market [72]. Summary by Sections 1. Supply - Daily molten iron production has decreased by 0.2 thousand tons to 227.9 thousand tons, with a slight recovery in steel production [13]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is at 85.5%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week but up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [17]. 2. Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products has increased by 1.7% week-on-week, with social inventory rising to 890.7 thousand tons [25]. - Rebar social inventory has increased by 7.7% week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil inventory has decreased by 1.0% [25]. 3. Demand - Apparent consumption of five major steel products has decreased by 1.0% week-on-week, with rebar consumption down by 4.9% [49]. - Weekly average transaction volume for construction steel has dropped to 67 thousand tons, a decline of 13.4% [41]. 4. Raw Materials - Iron ore prices have weakened, with the Platts 62% iron ore price index at $103.2 per ton, down 1.4% week-on-week [58]. - The total port inventory of iron ore has increased by 1.5% week-on-week, indicating a supply surplus [58]. 5. Prices and Profits - The comprehensive steel price index has decreased to 121.6, reflecting a 0.2% decline week-on-week [72]. - The current profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are negative, indicating cost pressures in the industry [74].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that raw material inventory replenishment is nearly complete, with a focus on changes in real estate policies. It notes that steel production and apparent consumption are stabilizing, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in demand [8][32]. - The report anticipates that steel mill profits may continue to recover due to improved margins from raw material cost reductions and potential easing of real estate regulations [8][32]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of January 30, 2026, steel prices have decreased, with rebar priced at 3,240 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY from the previous week. Hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices also saw declines [15][16]. - The total production of major steel products reached 8.23 million tons, with an increase in inventory levels [8][32]. Profitability Analysis - The report estimates weekly gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel to have changed by -17 CNY/ton, +3 CNY/ton, and -19 CNY/ton respectively, indicating fluctuations in profitability [8][32]. Production and Inventory - The total inventory of major steel products rose by 222,100 tons to 8.89 million tons, with a slight decrease in steel mill inventory [8][32]. - Apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.764 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 91,200 tons week-on-week [8][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their market position: 1. Leading companies in the general steel sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel 2. Specialty steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Fangda Special Steel 3. Pipe manufacturers: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Changbao Co. 4. Raw material companies with clear growth: Dazhong Mining (iron ore + lithium) and Fangda Carbon [8][32].