Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400), which has seen a rise of over 2% and is currently up 1.88%, indicating a potential three-day consecutive increase in trading volume [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF has experienced continuous net inflows for 12 days, supported by a recent action plan from Shanghai to enhance the linkage between futures and spot markets for non-ferrous metals, aiming to expand the market's international influence [2] - The global macroeconomic outlook is improving, with the IMF raising the 2026 global growth forecast to 3.3%, which is expected to support the prices of precious metals and boost sentiment for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] Group 2 - The tungsten market is experiencing a strong upward trend in both price and volume, with tungsten powder prices reaching historical highs due to tight supply and strong demand driven by the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF closely tracks the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index, which includes 50 listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in the market [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index include major companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth, indicating a concentration of market influence among leading firms [3]

宏观对话行业：地缘扰动下的周期品走势 20260120 摘要 美国战略重心转向美洲，强化"新门罗主义"，引发市场对地缘政治风 险的担忧，尤其是在委内瑞拉的军事行动和对格陵兰岛资源的争夺，可 能加剧国际紧张局势。 中国通过稀土、大豆等资源应对美国的技术封锁，提升了市场对其国家 治理能力的信心。同时，中国可深化"一带一路"倡议，以应对美国在 西半球的影响，并提升出口韧性。 中国出口目的地结构发生变化，对墨西哥出口贡献转负，但欧洲和非洲 国家成为新的增长点，新兴经济体的工业化需求支撑了中国出口韧性， 应淡化对美国市场需求的研究。 地缘政治扰动下，有色金属板块存在投资机会，包括类货币金属（如黄 金）和科技金属。黄金受益于去美元化和地缘政治紧张，科技金属受益 于 AI 和电能改造等新兴需求。 建议关注供给脆弱性叠加需求扩张周期的科技金属，如锡，其价格预计 将超过 50 万元以上，推荐阿尔法表现突出的企业，如新银锡、华锡有 色等。 Q&A 过去几年地缘政治局势的变化对全球市场产生了哪些影响？2026 年有哪些潜 在的风险点需要投资者关注？ 过去几年，尤其是 2025 年以来，地缘政治局势对全球市场产生了显著影响。 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rare metals theme index in China has shown a strong upward trend, with significant price increases in tungsten and other strategic metals due to rising demand and supply chain disruptions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 21, 2026, the China Rare Metals Theme Index rose by 2.75%, with notable increases in component stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy (up 9.99%), Zhongtung High-tech (up 9.42%), and Zhongmin Resources (up 7.89%) [1] - The prices of 65% black tungsten concentrate and 65% white tungsten concentrate have increased by 13.0% and 13.1% respectively since the beginning of the year, reaching 520,000 yuan and 519,000 yuan per standard ton [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Rapid growth in downstream demand from sectors like new energy and semiconductors has intensified supply-demand conflicts, leading to significant price increases in tungsten, molybdenum, tin, and other minor metals [1] - The global supply chain disruptions continue to affect the market, drawing widespread attention to core strategic resources such as lithium and rare earths [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Everbright Securities emphasizes the investment opportunities arising from the strategic metal stockpiling initiatives by various countries, particularly in the U.S. and Australia, which have announced significant procurement plans for critical minerals [1] - The cumulative procurement volume for cobalt, tantalum, antimony, and gallium from the U.S. and Australia is projected to account for 3%, 12%, 8%, and 14% of global production in 2024, respectively [1] - A comprehensive positive outlook is presented for the revaluation of strategic metals including copper, aluminum, cobalt, nickel, tin, antimony, tungsten, and rare earths [1] Group 4: ETF and Investment Tools - The Rare Metals ETF (562800) tracks the China Rare Metals Theme Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to gain exposure to the rare metals sector [3] - Investors can also consider the Rare Metals ETF linked fund (014111) to explore investment opportunities in the rare metals sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the non-ferrous metal sector, with significant gains in related ETFs and stocks [1][5]. Market Performance - As of January 21, the non-ferrous metal sector is showing robust performance, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising over 2% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector include: - Shandong Gold up 4.54% - Ganfeng Lithium up 3.10% - Northern Rare Earth up 1.63% [2][5]. Commodity Prices - On January 21, COMEX gold and spot gold both surpassed the $4800 mark, each increasing by over 1%, reaching historical highs [3]. - LME copper is also on the rise, currently up by 0.6% [3]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions are heightening, leading to increased risk aversion in the market [3]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's political independence is under scrutiny, particularly with Jerome Powell's upcoming testimony [3]. Policy Developments - On January 20, multiple departments introduced an action plan to enhance the linkage between futures and spot markets for non-ferrous metals, aiming to improve the international competitiveness of the "Shanghai price" [3]. Investment Opportunities - Oriental Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on industrial metals, predicting a strategic opportunity in the copper sector due to supply constraints and improving smelting fees [4]. - The report suggests that the copper market is expected to benefit from a recovery in production from major mines, which could enhance profit margins for smelting companies [4]. Strategic Insights - The current economic climate is characterized by a "spiral down" phase, highlighting copper's strategic importance as a key metal amid global economic shifts [6]. - The demand for copper is expected to surge due to the AI revolution, with projections indicating an additional demand of approximately 79-170 thousand tons by 2030 from data center expansions alone [6]. ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is noted for its high copper content (34%) and gold content (12%), making it a leading choice in the sector [8]. - The ETF has shown superior performance with a cumulative return of 99.61% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation increases [10].

Group 1 - Precious metals continue to show strong performance, with spot gold surpassing $4800 per ounce and spot silver reaching $95 per ounce, marking a 33% increase year-to-date [1] - Guangfa Securities indicates that the current divergence and rise in the commodity market are driven by a "debt-growth" dilemma, characterized by both "stagflation-type" asset revaluation and "transformation-type" industrial demand [1] - The focus for investment should be on the "safe-haven attributes of precious metals" and the "growth attributes of AI-related industrial metals" [1] Group 2 - As of January 21, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 2.00%, with component stocks such as silver nonferrous up by 9.88%, Zhongjin Gold up by 8.32%, and other related stocks also showing significant gains [1] - The Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880) closely tracks the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the nonferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [1][3] Group 3 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [2]

Group 1 - The CSI Rare Metals Theme Index (930632) has shown a strong increase of 2.56% as of January 21, 2026, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Shengxin Lithium Energy (up 9.99%) and Tianhua New Energy (up 7.42%) [1] - As of January 20, 2026, the total scale of the Rare Metals ETF Fund (561800) reached 220 million yuan, marking a new high for the past month, with the latest share count at 200 million [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metals Theme Index account for 59.54% of the index, including companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Ganfeng Lithium [1] Group 2 - Recent significant declines in tin prices have been observed, with spot tin prices dropping over 5% in a single day, yet the long-term outlook for tin remains positive due to its critical role in high-growth industries such as new energy and semiconductors [2] - The rare earth magnetic material supply chain has seen rising prices, with significant increases in the prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxides, driven by low inventory levels and tight supply conditions [2] - The Rare Metals ETF Fund (561800) tracks the CS Rare Metals Index, which has a high content of energy metals like lithium and cobalt, positioning it to benefit from ongoing market trends [2]

今日（1月21日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）强势拉升，场内价格现涨1.06%，在近几日市场盘整时，仍收获2日连涨，今日冲击3 连阳，行情表现彰显韧性。 值得关注的是，截至1月20日，有色ETF华宝（159876）最新规模16.65亿元，续创历史新高。在全市场3只跟踪中证有色金属指数的ETF中，是规模最大的 ETF。 成份股方面，湖南白银领涨超8%，盛新锂能涨逾7%，永兴材料、中矿资源、白银有色涨逾5%。权重股方面，山东黄金涨超3%，北方稀土涨逾1%，紫 金矿业飘红。 【有色风口已至，"超级周期"势不可挡】 有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（A类：017140，C类：017141）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业，涵盖贵金属（避险）、战略 金属（成长）、工业金属（复苏）等不同景气周期，全品类覆盖能够更好把握整个板块的贝塔行情。 伴随火热的行情，资金积极进场布局！截至发稿，有色ETF华宝（159876）获资金实时净申购2160万份，拉长时间来看，近10日连续吸金，合计狂揽6.35 亿元！ | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) showing resilience and attracting significant capital inflow, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [1][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) increased by 1.06% today, marking two consecutive days of gains and aiming for a third [1][11]. - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 21.6 million units, accumulating a total of 635 million yuan over the past ten days [1][11]. - Key stocks in the sector, such as Hunan Silver and Shengxin Lithium Energy, have shown significant price increases, with Hunan Silver leading at 8.23% [2][4][14]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Analysts suggest that the current non-ferrous metal cycle is part of a longer-term trend, with historical cycles lasting 25-30 years, indicating that the current upward trend may persist for several years [3][13]. - The sector is expected to benefit from a combination of factors, including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved domestic macroeconomic expectations [3][13]. - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF is the largest among three ETFs tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, with a recent scale of 1.665 billion yuan, setting a new historical high [5][15]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry is anticipated to enter a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors by 2026, with institutions broadly optimistic about a comprehensive bull market in non-ferrous metals [5][13]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and central bank gold purchases are expected to support long-term gold prices, reinforcing the bullish outlook for precious metals [2][12].

Core Viewpoint - Northern Rare Earth's stock price has shown a significant increase, with a year-to-date rise of 9.80% and a notable net inflow of funds, indicating strong market interest and potential growth in the rare earth sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 21, Northern Rare Earth's stock price rose by 2.06% to 50.64 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 15.15 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.84%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 1830.67 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 1.63% over the last five trading days and by 11.17% over the past 20 days, while it has decreased by 5.01% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Northern Rare Earth reported a revenue of 302.92 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.41 billion CNY, which is a substantial increase of 280.27% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of January 10, 2025, the number of shareholders for Northern Rare Earth reached 667,200, an increase of 2.12% from the previous period, with an average of 5,418 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 2.07% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 53.58 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 9.94 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 80.36 million shares, a decrease of 58.33 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Other notable institutional shareholders include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, both of which have seen changes in their holdings, indicating active management and potential shifts in investment strategies [3].

Precious Metals Industry - Central banks worldwide are increasing their gold reserves to diversify risk, with China's central bank having increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [1] - The global monetary easing expectations are rising, leading to a weaker dollar, which enhances the attractiveness of precious and non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [1] - The market for precious metals is expected to experience a broad rally starting in early 2026, characterized by a resonance between financial and industrial attributes [1] - Key players in the precious metals sector include Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Guoyuan Platinum, all of which are focusing on optimizing production and expanding operations [3] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The demand for non-ferrous metals such as silver, copper, and aluminum is growing due to the rigid requirements from emerging industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI servers [1] - The market dynamics for non-ferrous metals are changing, driven by both traditional infrastructure demand and new energy sectors [1] - Major companies in the non-ferrous metals sector include Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, Huayou Cobalt, and Tin Industry Co., which are involved in mining, refining, and processing of various metals [4]