连续上涨后，有色板块今日震荡调整后拉升，资金逢低布局，有色ETF鹏华(159880)盘中净申购2150万 份，冲刺连续6天净流入。 截至2026年1月29日 10:45，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)下成分股方面涨跌互现，湖南黄金领涨 10.01%，西部黄金上涨9.49%，白银有色上涨7.46%；厦门钨业领跌。有色ETF鹏华(159880)最新报价 2.57元。 有色ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 中信建投证券指出，区域局势紧张，驱动避险资金及央行对黄金的配置继续，强化贵金属牛市格局。特 朗普通过非常规手段获得石油、关键矿产等战略资源的做法，威胁着全球资源的供应安全，驱使各国及 各生产环节抬升合意库存以应对潜在的供应中断风险，金属资源的战略地位得以提升，助力商品价格和 权益端估值进一步走高。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳 ...

大摩ESG量化混合A（009246）成立日期2020年7月16日，最新规模2.64亿。今年以来收益8.79%，同类 排名3163/8866；近一年收益41.37%，同类排名3167/8126；成立以来收益21.07%。 大摩ESG量化混合A（009246）基金经理为余斌。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，摩根士丹利基金旗下1只基金重仓洛阳钼业。大摩ESG量化混合A（009246）四季度增持3.56 万股，持有股数17.49万股，占基金净值比例为1.33%，位居第七大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约 25.01万元。 截至发稿，余斌累计任职时间11年273天，现任基金资产总规模14.45亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 94.7%， 任职期间最差基金回报-92.52%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 1月29日，洛阳钼业跌5.32%，截至发稿，报25.45元/股，成交100.93亿元，换手率2.13%，总市值 5444.8 ...

铜：棋至中局，稳定性凸显 20260128 摘要 XT 合约价差飙升至 100 美元，创 1998 年来最大单日涨幅，导致 COMEX 与 LME 价差转负，北美隐性库存增加缓解 LME 低库存，短期 内铜价相对其他品种偏弱。 长期来看，美国或通过高价维持电解铜进口优势，远端虹吸效应持续。 全球铜矿生产干扰率高，如智利 Capstone 铜金矿罢工，限制供应。预 计春节前后铜价横盘整理，长期供应紧张和电力需求增长支撑铜价。 铜需求与电力紧密相关，新能源和 AI 技术革命带动电力需求。美国人均 用铜量与人均 GDP 呈 M 型趋势，AI 技术开支大幅上行，类似 90 年代 互联网周期，电力相关用铜需求将持续增长。 过去十年铜矿资本支出偏低，新扩建项目不足以弥补大规模新矿山开发 所需产能。高利润背景下劳资关系紧张及资源国保护主义政策提高生产 干扰率，供应端长期受限。 全球范围内铜供应存在结构性紧缺将持续存在。建议关注紫金、洛钼、 五矿等资源储备丰富的公司，以及中国有色矿业、铜陵、江铜等自给率 提升显著的企业。 紫金收购联合黄金矿区后黄金产量有望提升，洛钼完成巴西黄金矿山收 购交割，为公司提供利润支撑。在当前宏观复 ...

能源金属全面上涨，重视镍板块低预期的修正 20260128 摘要 永兴材料和九零锂业计划在 2026 年完成年度开采量后启动换证，短期 内产量预计不受影响，为市场提供稳定供应。 碳酸锂价格预计春节前后保持强势，2 月排产环比下降约 10%，锂盐厂 检修导致供给收缩，电池厂按需采购及期货点价意愿强是支撑因素，宁 德时代采矿证复产情况是关键。 碳酸锂价格上涨对储能经济性影响有限，尽管理论上每上涨 10 万元影 响 IRR 约 3%，但电池厂成本传导不完全，储能项目仍具经济性，各地 容量补贴政策落地进一步支持。 动力电池市场近期销售疲软，受去年四季度集中采购影响，一二月份为 空窗期，三四月份销售情况将更明朗，需求稳定将推动权益板块新一轮 行情。 印尼政府整顿青山工业园区码头垄断，显示出民族资源主义倾向，可能 规范矿业生产，或对青山集团在印尼镍产业链的资源份额产生影响。 印尼政府有意加强镍产业管理，可能通过提高镍价增加税收，目标价位 为 1.9 万至 2 万美元，若实现，相关标的估值将显著降低。 钴板块全年上涨趋势明确，刚果金实施强制出口配额制度导致全球供应 短缺，海外贸易商积极采购中间品库存，供需逻辑和市场行为均支 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the base metals industry, particularly copper and gold, with specific attention to Chinese companies Zijin Mining and CMOC. - The global commodity team has revised up the price forecasts for gold and copper, indicating a positive outlook for the industry. Company Insights Zijin Mining - Earnings for Zijin are revised up by 14-18% for 2026-27E due to higher copper and gold price forecasts and increased lithium output [9][10] - Expected copper output growth of 14% in 2026E, reaching 1.24 million tons, with a target of 1.5-1.6 million tons by 2028E, implying a 45% growth from 2025 levels [10][11] - The Julong phase II operation has increased production capacity from 150,000 tons/day to 350,000 tons/day, expected to produce 300,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2026E [10] - Proposed acquisition of Allied Gold for C$5.5 billion could boost Zijin's 2026E net profit by 4% if completed [13] - Current share prices imply a copper price of US$10,430/ton if 2028E targets are achieved, which is 20% lower than the spot price [9] CMOC - CMOC's recurring earnings are revised up by 20-24% for 2026-27E, driven by higher copper output and contributions from newly acquired gold assets in Brazil [19][21] - Copper production for 2026E is guided to be between 760,000 and 820,000 tons, with a target of 1 million tons by 2028E [20] - The acquisition of three gold assets in Brazil is expected to contribute significantly to gold mining profits starting in 2026E [21][23] - Current share prices imply a copper price of US$9,287/ton if 2028E targets are achieved, which is 30% lower than the spot price [19] Commodity Price Forecasts - The global commodity team has increased the benchmark gold price forecast by 10-16% for 2026-27E, averaging US$4,978/oz in 2026E and US$5,585/oz in 1H27E [2] - LME copper price forecast has been revised up by 7% for 2026E to US$12,200/ton, with expectations of a US tariff impacting supply dynamics [2] Financial Metrics - Zijin's net profit is expected to reach RMB 76.7 billion in 2026E, with a recurring net profit of RMB 76.7 billion as well [17] - CMOC's net profit is projected to increase to RMB 35.7 billion in 2026E, with a recurring net profit of RMB 35.7 billion [26] - MMG's recurring earnings are revised up by 18-26% for 2025-27E, with a projected net profit of US$1.69 billion in 2026E [29] Additional Insights - The acquisitions and expansions in both Zijin and CMOC are expected to provide significant upside potential in earnings, particularly in a rising commodity price environment [10][19] - The overall sentiment in the base metals industry remains positive, with expectations of growth driven by both price increases and production expansions [1][2]

【招商机械】重点推荐耐普矿机！ 全球矿业预期景气向上的大β下，耐普作为具备"出海+新品+扩产"等属性的选矿环节耐磨备件龙头充分受益，业绩 在25Q3迎来单季拐点后，有望进入新一轮上行通道，短期变化与中长期价值兼备，建议重视！ 矿机出海：公司21年起海外收入占比稳定保持在50%以上，与紫金/洛钼、力拓/淡水河谷等国内外矿企龙头深 度绑定，有望充分受益即将到来的海外矿企资本开支景气上行期 新品兑现： 矿机出海：公司21年起海外收入占比稳定保持在50%以上，与紫金/洛钼、力拓/淡水河谷等国内外矿企龙头深 度绑定，有望充分受益即将到来的海外矿企资本开支景气上行期 新品兑现：公司24年成功研制全球首创的"高合金锻造橡胶复合衬板"新品（较主流的铸造衬板性能断档提 升），25年国内试用推广/在手订单1亿/确收1500万，26年海外试用推广/订单预期3亿/确收预期1+亿，有望贡献可 观业绩增量 产能扩张：公司现有产能已供不应求，蒙古国、赞比亚生产基地已投产，智利、秘鲁生产基地预计于26H2、 27H2投产，新增产值合计7亿；后续还有塞尔维亚生产基地规划，是我们此前强调需要重视的海外新建产能步入收 获期的标的 【招商机械】重点 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the copper industry, discussing market dynamics, supply-demand factors, and price movements related to copper [1][2][3][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments Market Disturbances - Recent market disturbances affecting copper fundamentals include: - Nvidia's reduction in copper usage for AI applications [1] - The U.S. postponement of tariffs on critical minerals, which has put pressure on copper fundamentals and contributed to weaker copper prices compared to other metals [1][2]. Price Discrepancies - There is a notable divergence in copper prices between COMEX and LME markets: - COMEX prices weakened due to the U.S. tariff postponement [1]. - LME experienced significant warehouse congestion, with the near-term TOMORROW and NEXT contract price spread soaring to $100, marking the highest increase since 1998 [1]. Inventory Dynamics - North America has seen a hidden inventory of 20,000 tons returned to M1 due to high prices, with New Orleans inventory exceeding 10,000 tons, alleviating LME's low inventory concerns [2]. - The near-term copper price remains weak, while the long-term structure appears healthy, indicating a potential price advantage for U.S. electrolytic copper imports [2]. Supply and Demand Forecast - Short-term copper supply disruptions are expected to support prices, particularly due to a strike at the Capstone copper-gold mine in northern Chile, which has reduced capacity to about 30% [2]. - Current global copper mine production disruption rates are between 5%-6%, affecting profit transmission to capital expenditures and supply [2]. Price Trends and Economic Indicators - Copper prices are anticipated to remain stable before the Spring Festival, potentially underperforming compared to zinc and aluminum, but with limited downside [3]. - The gold-to-copper ratio has recently surged, indicating optimistic market expectations for economic recovery and potential copper price appreciation [3]. Structural Demand Growth - Copper demand is closely tied to electricity consumption, with historical trends showing a correlation between U.S. copper usage and GDP growth [3]. - The anticipated rise in AI-related expenditures is expected to drive infrastructure development, similar to the internet boom from 1990-2000, potentially increasing copper demand [4]. Long-term Supply Constraints - Long-term supply challenges include: - Low capital expenditures in copper mining over the past decade, with insufficient initial investments [4]. - Increased labor tensions and resource protection policies in producing countries, leading to higher production disruption rates [4]. Investment Opportunities - The structural tightness in copper supply and demand suggests a continued bullish outlook for copper prices [5]. - Key resource stocks to consider include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining, with a focus on companies improving copper self-sufficiency [5]. Recent Developments in Core Assets - Luoyang Molybdenum is set to complete the acquisition of three gold mines in Brazil, with an estimated contribution of approximately 2.5 billion yuan [6]. - Zijin Mining's acquisition of three gold mining areas in Côte d'Ivoire is expected to significantly increase production and reduce costs [6]. - The copper self-sufficiency improvement projects are projected to yield substantial performance growth, benefiting from macroeconomic recovery expectations [6].

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper industry, analyzing recent price trends and market dynamics affecting copper prices and supply-demand relationships. Key Points Recent Weakness in Copper Prices - **Market Noise Disturbances**: Recent disturbances in the copper market include Nvidia's reduction in copper usage for AI and the U.S. delaying tariffs on critical minerals, which have exerted pressure on copper's fundamentals, contributing to its weaker performance compared to other metals [1][2] - **Abnormal Price Differentials**: There is a divergence in price trends between COMEX and LME copper, with near-term price differentials being negatively impacted. The COMEX market is affected by the U.S. tariff delay, while LME has seen significant short-covering behavior, leading to a record high price differential of $100, with a single-day increase of $60, the highest since 1998 [2] Short-term Price Outlook - **Near and Long-term Structure Divergence**: While near-term copper prices are weak, the long-term structure remains healthy. The U.S. may maintain high prices to support electrolytic copper imports, leading to a continued premium in long-term COMEX and LME price differentials [2] - **Supply Disruptions Supporting Prices**: Short-term supply disruptions, such as strikes at the Capstone copper-gold mine in Chile, are expected to support copper prices, which may exhibit specific characteristics leading up to the Chinese New Year [3] Long-term Price Logic - **Gold-Copper Ratio and Economic Expectations**: The recent rise in gold prices, with the gold-copper ratio breaking out of a 50-year range, suggests optimistic economic expectations. Historically, a decline in this ratio corresponds with positive economic outlooks, indicating potential for copper price appreciation [3] - **Structural Demand Growth**: The demand for copper is closely linked to electricity usage. Historical trends show that periods of manufacturing growth correlate with increased copper demand. The anticipated rise in AI-related expenditures is expected to drive significant demand for copper, similar to the internet boom of the late 1990s [4] Supply Constraints - **Long-term Supply Challenges**: The copper supply side faces multiple long-term challenges, including low capital expenditures over the past decade and strained labor relations due to high copper prices. These issues are unlikely to be resolved in the short term, contributing to a structural supply deficit [4][5] Recommendations for Investment - **Resource Stock Recommendations**: Key resource stocks include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining, with a focus on companies improving copper self-sufficiency. Recent updates include Zijin's acquisition of gold mines and Luoyang's completion of significant acquisitions, which are expected to enhance their production capabilities and financial performance [7][8] - **Self-sufficiency Growth Stocks**: Companies like Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Jiangxi Copper are highlighted for their potential growth due to increased copper self-sufficiency and capacity expansions, which are expected to contribute positively to their earnings [7][8] Market Outlook - **Structural Tightness in Copper Supply**: The expectation of structural tightness in copper supply over the next two years, coupled with macroeconomic recovery, suggests that copper prices are likely to continue rising, supporting a bullish outlook for the copper sector [8]

Group 1 - The Shanghai 180 Index (000010) increased by 0.62% as of January 28, 2026, with notable gains from China Aluminum (601600) at 10.02%, Zhongjin Gold (600489) at 10.01%, Shandong Gold (600547) at 9.97%, Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) at 9.80%, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938) at 6.98% [1] - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund rose by 0.71%, reaching a new high in nearly one year as of January 28, 2026 [1] - The unit net value of the Ping An Shanghai 180 ETF Connect A (023547) was 1.22 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.58% and a cumulative increase of 0.29% over the past week [1] Group 2 - The Ping An Shanghai 180 ETF Connect A (023547) achieved an annualized excess return of 0.11% over the benchmark in the past six months as of January 28, 2026 [2] - The maximum drawdown for the Ping An Shanghai 180 ETF Connect A since the beginning of the year was 1.21%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.08%, ranking 5th out of 25 in its category, indicating low drawdown risk [2] - The fund, established on March 20, 2025, aims to closely track the performance of the Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) [2] - The current fund managers, Liu Jieqian and Wang Yun, have achieved a return of 22.43% since Liu's appointment on March 20, 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund (530280) has shown a positive performance with a recent increase of 0.71% over the past week and a 14.83% rise over the last six months, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities [1][2]. Performance Summary - As of January 28, 2026, the Shanghai 180 ETF Index Fund has achieved a maximum monthly return of 9.13% since its inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 6 months and a total gain of 22.51% during that period [2]. - The fund has a historical average monthly return of 3.08%, with a monthly profit percentage of 72.73% and a monthly profit probability of 74.89% [2]. - The fund has maintained a 100% probability of profit over a one-year holding period since inception, with an annualized return exceeding the benchmark by 2.31% [2]. Risk and Fee Analysis - The maximum drawdown for the fund this year is 1.30%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.06%, indicating a relatively stable performance [3]. - The management fee for the fund is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are among the lowest in comparable funds [3]. - The tracking error over the past three months is 0.018%, demonstrating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [3]. Index Composition - The Shanghai 180 Index consists of 180 securities selected from the Shanghai market, reflecting the overall performance of core listed companies [3]. - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include Kweichow Moutai, Zijin Mining, and China Ping An, collectively accounting for 25.29% of the index [3].