华创医疗器械随笔系列11 证券研究报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 医药生物 | 2025年5月6日 X1镜体即将国内上市，消化内镜行业迎来新增长周期 华创医药首席分析师 郑辰 华创医药高级分析师 李婵娟 联系人：张良龙 执业编号：S0360520110002 邮箱： zhengchen@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520110004 邮箱： lichanjuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360123110010 邮箱： zhanglianglong@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 摘要 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 奥林巴斯新一代X1产品迭代导致各区域软镜市场波动。奥林巴斯占据全球胃肠镜市场的70%左右份额，其内窥镜解决方案 （ESD）板块收入变化可表征软镜行业波动。时隔八年，奥林巴斯的新一代产品X1系统上市后迅速放量，在当地的X1上市之前， 院方可能会刻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The digestive endoscopy industry is expected to enter a new growth cycle with the launch of Olympus's X1 endoscope system, which will significantly impact the soft endoscope market in various regions [3][20]. Group 1: Olympus X1 Product Launch and Market Impact - The launch of Olympus's new generation X1 system has led to fluctuations in the soft endoscope market across different regions, as hospitals may delay procurement until the new product is available [3][11]. - The X1 system, which integrates advanced imaging technologies and ergonomic design, is anticipated to drive a significant increase in demand for soft endoscopes once fully launched in China [7][10]. - The X1 system's revenue contribution to Olympus's gastrointestinal business has increased from approximately 10% in Q3 2021 to around 30% by Q1 2024, indicating strong market acceptance [10][11]. Group 2: Domestic Market Challenges and Future Outlook - The domestic soft endoscope market is under pressure in 2024 due to factors such as anti-corruption measures affecting procurement and delays in equipment updates, leading to a projected 21.1% decline in the medical equipment bidding market [13][17]. - The X1 endoscope's main unit has been approved in China, but the accompanying endoscope is still pending approval, causing hospitals to postpone purchases [13][17]. - It is expected that the X1 endoscope will be fully launched by the end of this year or early next year, which could lead to a concentrated release of demand in the domestic market [17][18]. Group 3: Growth of Domestic Manufacturers - Domestic manufacturers like Aohua and Kaili Medical are expected to benefit from the industry growth driven by the X1 system, as their product quality continues to improve and gain recognition in high-tier hospitals [24][27]. - The domestic soft endoscope market's localization rate has increased from less than 15% in 2021 to over 35% by Q3 2024, indicating a growing acceptance of domestic products [25][27]. - Aohua's AQ-300 and Kaili's HD-580 have been recognized in major hospitals, and their sales are expected to increase as the market recovers [24][32].

Core Insights - April marks a critical month for A-share listed companies as they disclose annual and quarterly reports, leading to intensified research activities by public funds [1] - A total of 162 public fund institutions conducted research on A-share listed companies in April, covering 732 stocks across 30 primary industries, with a total of 9,796 research instances, representing a 129.47% increase from March and setting a new high for research activity in the year [1] Industry Analysis - The electronics and pharmaceutical industries led in research activity, with the electronics sector dominating the top ten most-researched stocks [1] - Luxshare Precision (002475) topped the list of most-researched stocks, followed by Huada Technology (002463), Lanke Technology, and Anker Innovation (300866) in the electronics sector [1] - In the pharmaceutical sector, stocks such as East China Pharmaceutical (000963), Aibo Medical, Aopumai, and Kaili Medical (300633) received significant attention [1] Stock Performance - Among the researched stocks, Red Bull (002165) from the basic chemical industry achieved the highest increase in stock price, soaring by 104.27%, making it the biggest dark horse of the month [1] - In the automotive sector, Lin Tai New Materials saw a remarkable stock price increase of 84.94% in April [1] - The pharmaceutical and biological sector also performed well, with Yipin Hong (300723) and Kexing Pharmaceutical recording stock price increases of 56.20% and 55.19%, respectively, both making it into the top ten for price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - In the past five trading days, a total of 586 companies were investigated by institutions, with significant interest in companies like Proya, Kaili Medical, and Luxshare Precision, indicating a trend of institutional focus on specific stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Research Activity - 586 companies were investigated by institutions from April 24 to April 30, with 95.22% of these investigations involving securities companies [1]. - Proya received the highest attention with 356 institutions participating in its research, followed by Kaili Medical with 256 institutions, and Luxshare Precision with 255 institutions [1]. - The most frequently investigated company was Yageo, which had six institutional research sessions, while Liad and Shengbang shares had four and three sessions respectively [1]. Group 2: Fund Flow and Stock Performance - Among the stocks investigated by more than 20 institutions, 127 experienced net capital inflows in the past five days, with Xingsen Technology seeing the highest net inflow of 271 million yuan [1]. - In terms of stock performance, 179 stocks among those investigated saw price increases, with Proya leading with a rise of 25.03%, followed by Beiding Co. and Shenkeda with increases of 23.36% and 22.56% respectively [2]. - Conversely, 180 stocks experienced declines, with Semir Apparel, Guangdian Measurement, and Yuandong Bio showing the largest drops of 16.99%, 14.22%, and 13.21% respectively [2]. Group 3: Earnings Forecasts - Only one stock among those investigated released a semi-annual earnings forecast, with Luxshare Precision expected to report a net profit of 6.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.50% [2].

业绩环比修复，海内外市场同步拓展 ——海泰新光 2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报，我们下调收入、毛利率假设，调整 2025-27 年每 股收益预测分别为 1.51/1.79/2.23（原预测 25-26 年为 2.09/2.58）元，根据可比公 司给予 25 年 30 倍 PE，对应的目标价为 45.30 元，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 大客户依赖风险、地缘政治风险、国内市场拓展不及预期风险、下游需求波动风险 等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 471 | 443 | 565 | 691 | 868 | | 同比增长 (%) | -1.3% | -5.9% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 25.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 161 | 153 | 206 | 241 | 302 | | 同比增长 (%) | -22.0% | -5.0% ...

业绩环比修复，海内外市场同步拓展 ——海泰新光 2024 年报&2025 年一季报点评 风险提示 大客户依赖风险、地缘政治风险、国内市场拓展不及预期风险、下游需求波动风险 等。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 471 | 443 | 565 | 691 | 868 | | 同比增长 (%) | -1.3% | -5.9% | 27.5% | 22.4% | 25.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 161 | 153 | 206 | 241 | 302 | | 同比增长 (%) | -22.0% | -5.0% | 34.7% | 17.2% | 25.3% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 146 | 135 | 183 | 216 | 269 | | 同比增长 (%) | -20.2% | -7.1% | 34.9% | 18.1% | 24.8% | | 每股收益（元） | 1.21 | 1.12 | 1.51 | 1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to delayed revenue recovery and increased expenses from prior personnel expansion [1][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was 430 million yuan, down 10.29% year-over-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.07 million yuan, a decrease of 91.94% year-over-year [1]. - Gross margin for Q1 2025 was 63.2%, down 6.2 percentage points year-over-year [2]. Industry Trends - The ultrasound imaging diagnostic equipment market in China grew nearly 90% year-over-year in Q1 2025, indicating ongoing industry recovery [2]. - The company faced challenges in revenue due to industry-wide adjustments and high channel inventory levels, but expects gradual recovery as inventory is digested [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company expanded its workforce by 425 employees (approximately 16% year-over-year) in 2024, leading to increased employee costs [3]. - The company anticipates that as revenue recovers and product offerings shift towards higher-end solutions, the expense ratio will improve throughout the year [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecast for 2025 and 2026 at 0.84 yuan and 1.13 yuan, respectively [4]. - The target price remains at 41.6 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 37.2% based on a DCF valuation model [4].

Market Overview - The current A-share market is in a "strategic stalemate phase," with indices appearing calm but underlying volatility present [1] - Three main characteristics of the market include index box range fluctuations, moderate volume contraction, and rapid style rotation [3] Index and Fund Flows - The Shanghai Composite Index has been hovering between 3270 and 3320 points for 13 trading days, a critical area of dense trading from the last quarter of the previous year [3] - Notably, when the index exceeds 3300 points, there is a significant decrease in margin financing balance, indicating a reduction in leveraged funds [3] - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 8.7 billion over three trading days, yet core assets like Ningde Times and Yangtze Power experienced increased holdings, reflecting a "go fake keep true" strategy from smart money [3] Sector Analysis - The AI computing power sector, while popular, shows three warning signs: major shareholder reduction announcements from Zhongji Xuchuang, Cambrian's P/E ratio exceeding 900 times, and net selling by institutional investors in some small-cap stocks [3] - The power sector, which has undergone sufficient adjustments, is expected to face a power supply gap of 40 million kilowatts this summer, with visibility of orders in virtual power plants and smart grids extending to the third quarter [3] - Huaneng International and other thermal power transformation targets exhibit a price-to-book ratio of only 1.2 times, indicating a strong safety margin [3] Investment Strategy - Short-term investors are advised to focus on the medical device sector, which is benefiting from easing procurement policies and dual validations from annual and quarterly reports [4] - Mid to long-term investments should consider two key trends: domestic semiconductor equipment production, highlighted by a major order from Zhongwei Company to Yangtze Storage, and deepening state-owned enterprise reforms, with central enterprises like China Communications Construction Company showing a price-to-book ratio in the historical 10th percentile and a dividend yield exceeding 4.5% [4] Risk Monitoring - Investors should be cautious of three warning signals: liquidity traps in micro-cap stocks, potential foreign capital reallocation if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds 3.5%, and rising copper prices that may squeeze profits in the midstream manufacturing sector [4] Market Sentiment - The current market environment tests investors' "composure," requiring them to navigate risks while seizing opportunities [4] - The upcoming PMI data release is anticipated to be a key variable that could break the current stalemate [6]

Investment Highlights - The agricultural sector is recognized as a fundamental industry with significant resilience, characterized by domestic supply shortages, historical price declines, and low asset prices, leading to increased investment value in the sector [10][12] - The current phase of agricultural stock price increases is believed to be in the early stage of the second phase, transitioning from emotional stimulation to industrial logic development [10] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining grain security and farmer income resilience, with a target grain production of 1.4 trillion jin for 2025 [10] Agriculture Sector - The pig price is expected to remain stable in the short term, with recent data showing a price of 14.78 yuan/kg and a slight increase in breeding stock [11][12] - The chicken market is experiencing a rebound, with prices for live chickens and chicks showing signs of recovery, indicating a shift in the industry towards upstream breeding sources [13] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on companies like Hai Da Group, which is expected to benefit from improved cash flow and overseas growth [14][15] Energy Sector - Wind and solar power installations have surpassed thermal power for the first time, with a total installed capacity of 1.482 billion kW for wind and solar combined [24][25] - The report emphasizes the acceleration of offshore wind projects and the potential for domestic cable manufacturers to benefit from European market demand [27][29] - The introduction of new policies is expected to enhance the market entry of renewable energy sources, with significant growth anticipated in the offshore wind sector [26][30] Pharmaceutical Sector - The demand for new drugs for depression and epilepsy is highlighted, with a focus on companies like Warner Pharmaceuticals and Hainan Haiyao, which are developing innovative treatments [32][35] - The report notes the significant unmet need in the epilepsy market, with an estimated market size exceeding 50 billion yuan in China [35] - Warner Pharmaceuticals' ZG001, a derivative of ketamine, is in clinical trials and has the potential to revolutionize depression treatment [36] Consumer Sector - The pet food market is experiencing steady growth, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 10% from 2020 to 2024, particularly in the cat food segment [4][21] - The report indicates that exports of pet food have increased significantly, with a total export volume of 30,000 tons in March, reflecting a 24.6% year-on-year growth [17][20] - Companies like Lu Si Co. are identified as key players in the pet food industry, focusing on quality control and product development [4][21] Construction Materials Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and cyclical investment opportunities in the construction materials sector, particularly in light of recent political meetings that prioritize internal circulation [5][6] - Companies like San Ke Shu are noted for their competitive advantages in the paint sector, with expectations for improved performance as the market stabilizes [8][9] Transportation Sector - The logistics company Debang is experiencing short-term pressure on earnings but is expected to improve profitability through operational enhancements [8][9] - The report highlights the company's revenue growth driven by strategic adjustments and network integration [8][9]

Macro Strategy and North Exchange - The macro policy remains stable with LPR unchanged at 3.10% for 1-year and 3.60% for 5-year [5] - Industrial enterprise profits showed a year-on-year increase of 2.60% in March, marking the first positive growth since the previous year [5] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for high-quality development to address international economic and trade struggles, focusing on "Four Stabilities" [7][8] - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of special bonds and long-term bonds, with a deficit rate set at around 4% and a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from 2024 [8] - Monetary policy will include timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, along with new structural monetary policy tools to support innovation and consumption [10][11] A-Share Market Overview - From April 21 to April 27, 2025, most A-share indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.56% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.38% [15] - The market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation state due to the recent "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US and the upcoming May Day holiday [15][23] - The report indicates a "slow bull" market trend for A-shares in 2025, with a focus on technology, green energy, consumption, and infrastructure sectors [23] North Exchange Market Overview - As of April 25, 2025, the North Exchange had 265 listed stocks, with an average total market value of 755.47 billion yuan, an increase of 1.53% from the previous week [24] - The liquidity in the North Exchange decreased, with average trading volume dropping by 9.79% to 1.384 billion shares [25] - The North Exchange's 50 Index closed at 1300.19 points, down 2.16% from the previous week [26] Industry Insights: Food and Beverage - Salted Fish reported a revenue of 5.304 billion yuan and a net profit of 640 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.89% and 26.53% respectively [34] - The company is focusing on core product categories with strong growth, particularly in spicy snacks and baked goods, with significant revenue increases [35] - Salted Fish is accelerating its overseas expansion, with a projected revenue of 6.678 billion yuan in 2025, growing at 25.9% year-on-year [38] Industry Insights: Medical Devices - The sales of ultrasound imaging devices showed a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with sales revenue increasing by 87.95% year-on-year [40] - The report highlights a shift towards domestic brands, with domestic sales accounting for 37.79% of the market share in 2024, up from 34.20% in 2023 [42] - The report suggests a positive outlook for domestic ultrasound device manufacturers like Mindray and KAILI Medical, as the market for these devices is expected to continue recovering [48]