中国 证券研究 2025 年 6 月 22 日 证券研究报告 保险 证券分析师: 王丹 AC (86-21) 6106-6349 dan.wang@jpmorgan.com 登记编号: S1730524080001 摩根大通证券（中国）有限公司 风格敞口 | | 当前接名 | | 历史摘名,百分位(1表示排名第1) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 量化因子 | (百分位) | 6个月 | 1年 | 34 | 5年 | | 价值 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | | 成长 | 52 | 56 | 72 | 68 | 70 | | 动者 | 18 | 2 | 22 | 76 | 85 | | 质量 | 60 | 61 | 70 | 54 | 52 | | 低波动性 | 77 | 74 | 67 | 60 | 72 | | ESG量化得分 | 97 | 97 | 96 | 9 | 91 | 中国太平 - H 集中风险较高的保险公司，股息吸引力欠佳；首次覆 盖，给予"减持"评级 中国太平是运营历史最悠久的国有保险公司，在服务国家需求方面有着 出色往 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to China Reinsurance and ZhongAn Online, while it gives a "Reduce" rating to China Taiping and Sunshine Insurance [3][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the investment in Chinese insurance stocks is primarily driven by three key indicators: investment asset-related risks, profit growth prospects, and dividend growth visibility [6][22]. - In a normal macroeconomic scenario, the growth rate of insurance premiums is expected to align with GDP growth, which is projected at 5% for 2025, leading to significant profit potential for small and mid-cap insurers [4][22]. - The report emphasizes that small and mid-cap insurers are likely to outperform large-cap insurers due to their potential for excess growth in underwriting profits and lower earnings volatility compared to equity fluctuations [6][22]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - China Reinsurance: "Overweight" with a target price of HKD 1.4, current P/E ratio of 4x for FY2025 [3][21]. - ZhongAn Online: "Overweight" with a target price of HKD 26, current P/E ratio of 27x for FY2025 [3][21]. - China Taiping: "Reduce" with a target price of HKD 8.2, current P/E ratio of 6x for FY2025 [3][21]. - Sunshine Insurance: "Reduce" with a target price of HKD 2.1, current P/E ratio of 7x for FY2025 [3][21]. Macro Environment Analysis - In a normal macro scenario, premium growth is expected to match GDP growth, leading to a projected 14% year-on-year profit growth for small and mid-cap insurers compared to 6% for large-cap insurers [4][22]. - In a pessimistic macro scenario, small and mid-cap insurers exhibit more resilient profit growth, with a potential 27% decline in earnings if the Shanghai Composite Index drops by 10%, compared to a 45% decline for large-cap insurers [29][35]. Financial Metrics - The report notes that the current valuation multiples for China Reinsurance are significantly lower than historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery as business conditions improve [23][24]. - The report also highlights that over 70% of equity investments are measured at fair value through profit or loss (FVTPL), which can lead to significant earnings volatility [7][28]. Risk and Opportunity Assessment - The report suggests that the decline in bond yields is beneficial for China Reinsurance, as it may lead to increased demand for financial reinsurance contracts among smaller insurers facing capital constraints [35][36]. - The analysis indicates that the insurance sector is under pressure due to declining bond yields, which could impact the solvency ratios of life insurers, but major players have managed to maintain strong solvency through capital-raising measures [5][35].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong insurance stocks are experiencing a strong upward trend, with China Pacific Insurance (02601.HK) rising over 5% [1] - China Taiping Insurance (00966.HK) has increased by more than 4% [1] - Other major players such as China Ping An (02318.HK) and China Life Insurance (02628.HK) are also seeing gains [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.06%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.14%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.9% [2] - The technology, financial, and automotive sectors saw widespread gains, while oil and gas stocks faced substantial declines [2] Technology and Financial Stocks - Major technology and financial stocks rose, with Xiaomi increasing nearly 4%, Hongye Futures surging over 15%, and China Galaxy rising nearly 9% [3] - Leading insurance stocks included China Taiping and Ping An, while major banks like Bank of Communications, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reached new highs [3] Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector suffered due to a sharp decline in international oil prices, influenced by geopolitical developments in the Middle East [4] - Notable declines included United Energy Group falling over 21%, Sinopec Oilfield Services down 15.85%, and Dalip Holdings dropping over 10% [4][5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector benefited from favorable market conditions, with significant gains in stocks such as BYD (up 3.25%), Li Auto (up 3.81%), and Leap Motor (up 4.34%) [6][7] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that vehicle production and sales in the first five months of the year increased by over 10% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles showing particularly strong growth [8] Company-Specific Developments - Juzhibio saw a rise of 5.27% following a statement addressing the limitations of its current collagen product testing methods [9] - The company acknowledged the need for improved quality standards and testing methods in response to industry advancements and consumer expectations [11][13] - Future measures include collaborating with research institutions to enhance testing methods, publicly sharing key technical parameters, and participating in the formulation of national and industry standards [14]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened high and closed with significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.06%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 2.14%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.9% [2] - The technology and financial sectors saw widespread gains, while the oil and gas sector experienced a sharp decline [2][3] Group 2: Technology and Financial Stocks - Major technology and financial stocks rose, with Xiaomi increasing nearly 4%, Hongye Futures soaring over 15%, and China Galaxy rising nearly 9% [4] - Leading insurance stocks included China Taiping and Ping An, while major banks like CCB, ICBC, and CMB reached new highs [4][5] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - The oil and gas sector faced significant sell-offs due to a sharp drop in international oil prices, with companies like United Energy Group falling over 21% and Sinopec Oilfield Services down 15.85% [6][7] - Specific stock performances included China Petroleum down 0.30%, Sinopec Oilfield Services down 15.85%, and United Energy Group down 21.21% [8] Group 4: Automotive Sector - The automotive sector benefited from favorable market conditions, with stocks like BYD rising 3.25%, Li Auto up 3.81%, and Leap Motor increasing 4.34% [9][10] - The overall automotive industry showed positive growth, with production and sales in the first five months of the year increasing by over 10% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales reaching 44% of total new car sales [12] Group 5: Company-Specific News - Juzhibio saw a rise of 5.27% following a statement addressing the limitations of its current collagen product testing methods [13][14] - The company acknowledged the need for optimization in quality standards and testing methods to meet industry advancements and consumer expectations [18]

今日，三大指数呈现高开高走行情，恒生指数涨2.06%上扬近500点重回两万四关口，国企指数、恒生科 技指数分别上涨1.9%及2.14%，三大指数均录得3连涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 800000 | 恒生指数 | O | 24177.07 | +487.94 | 2.06% | | 800100 | 国企指数 | | 8760.45 | +163.09 | 1.90% | | 800700 | 恒生科技指数 | | 5297.96 | +110.95 | 2.14% | 具体来看： 在线教育板块全线收红，新东方-S涨超8%，网龙涨超6%，思考乐教育涨超5%，卓越教育集团涨超3%， 东方甄选涨超1%。 | 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 09901 | 新东方-S | (0) | 40.700 | +3.250 | 8.68% | | 00777 | 网龙 | | 10.680 | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the insurance industry as "Overweight" indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [2][5][16]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the cost of liabilities is a critical factor affecting the valuation of life insurance companies, particularly in the context of "spread loss" concerns [3][4]. - It highlights that the focus has shifted from traditional growth indicators like NBV (New Business Value) to the management of liability costs and long-term investment returns as the primary valuation drivers [3]. - The report introduces the concept of "break-even yield" for assessing the cost of liabilities, suggesting that NBV and VIF (Value of In-Force) break-even yields are useful metrics [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The insurance sector has seen increased attention due to the new public fund regulations, with a noted underweighting of the non-bank sector compared to the CSI 300 index [2]. Liability Cost Analysis - The report identifies three main sources of profit for life insurance companies: mortality difference, expense difference, and investment yield difference [3]. - It discusses the downward trend in interest rates and its impact on the persistent low PEV (Price to Embedded Value) ratios, attributing this to concerns over spread loss risks [3]. Performance Metrics - The report provides specific break-even yield figures for major listed insurance companies for 2024, indicating a significant reduction in new liability costs [4]. - For instance, China Life's NBV break-even yield is reported at 2.43%, while Ping An's is at 2.42%, showing year-on-year changes [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including New China Life, China Life (H), China Pacific Insurance (H), Ping An, ZhongAn Online, and AIA [5].

【解剖大盘】 稳定币的热度较高，仅近半个月，券商举办的以稳定币为主题的电话会议就超过30场，覆盖了政策解 读、产业链分析和投资策略等多个维度。当前，稳定币发行人牌照门槛较高，初期仅批出少量牌照，众 安在线(06060)涨超7.4%、移卡(09923)涨超4%。 跨境通理财2.0市场反应良好，对银行、证券、保险均带来利好，尤其是保险类，如中国太平(00966)、 新华保险(01336)、中国财险(02328)均涨幅超2%。证券催化就是承销这块业务，显示，深圳承泰科技股 份有限公司向港交所提交上市申请书，独家保荐人为国泰君安国际(01788)。今天涨超5%。 确实谁也无法预料特朗普的"真实想法"，上周五还说要等两周，没想到周末美国就动手了。更诡异的是 以色列的股市居然创新高了，沙特的股市也上涨了。港股自然也没那么慌，今天低开走高收盘涨 0.67%。 据央视新闻23日报道，当地时间6月22日凌晨，美军战机轰炸了伊朗三处核设施：伊斯法罕、纳坦兹和 福尔多。特朗普称，伊朗关键的铀浓缩核设施已被彻底摧毁。 综合央视新闻等媒体报道，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里最新表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为 应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the insurance industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [21]. Core Insights - The insurance index increased by 0.24% this week, outperforming the market by 0.69 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with notable increases from ZhongAn (+4.81%) and Xinhua (+3.27%), while some companies like GuoShou (-0.74%) and TaiPing (-1.48%) saw declines [1]. - The report highlights that insurance companies are preparing for a shift in interest rates, particularly focusing on the development of dividend insurance products in response to regulatory changes [2][3]. - The issuance of the "Opinion Letter" regarding dividend insurance is seen as a move to standardize the floating cost levels and enhance the asset-liability matching of insurance companies, which may help mitigate long-term risks associated with interest rate differentials [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector's performance is characterized by a mixed outcome among individual stocks, with the overall index showing a slight increase [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield remains stable at 1.64%, indicating a low volatility environment for interest rates [1]. Recent Developments - Several insurance companies are actively developing new products to adapt to the changing interest rate environment, focusing on training sales personnel and enhancing channel cooperation [2]. - The regulatory body has issued guidelines to ensure that proposed dividend levels are justified and sustainable, particularly for companies rated 1-3 and those with higher proposed dividend levels [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent low volatility in long-term interest rates may reduce asset reallocation pressures, leading to improved operational quality in the insurance sector [5]. - The expected recovery in performance metrics, alongside a potential improvement in equity investments, indicates a positive outlook for the insurance companies' growth rates [5]. - The report lists the recommended companies in order: China Taiping, China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, Xinhua Insurance, and China Life, with respective PEV and PB valuations provided [5][10].

港股保险股午后走强，众安在线涨超6%，阳光保险、新华保险（601336）、中国太平等跟涨。 ...