Report Title - "Domestic 'Anti-Involution' Drives Market Sentiment Upward - Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report 2025.07.21" [1] Report Author - Liu Peiyang [2] Report Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views Copper - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [3]. - Fundamental: Although LME copper inventories have increased slightly, they remain at historical lows. Demand has weakened significantly as prices rebounded, showing a phased supply - demand weakness due to the traditional off - season [3]. - Overall: The impact of tariff shocks on copper prices is gradually digested. After prices stabilize, a bullish approach is recommended [3]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [5]. - Fundamental: With the release of supply increments and the suppression of the consumption off - season, the expectation of inventory accumulation is still strong [5]. - Overall: The improvement of domestic macro expectations significantly boosts industrial products. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [5]. Alumina - Macro: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will issue a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of non-ferrous metals, providing some support. Overseas tariff policies are fluctuating, and the Fed's interest rate cut path needs further observation [7]. - Fundamental: In the week of July 17, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 500,000 tons/year to 89.07 million tons/year, and the weekly inventory of alumina in electrolytic aluminum plants increased by about 25,800 tons, putting some pressure on spot prices [7]. - Overall: The expectation of supply - side reform and the decline of warehouse receipts to a low level. Alumina breaks through the low - level oscillation range upwards, and a bullish approach is recommended [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Weekly Price Changes**: Provided the weekly cumulative price change statistics of various metals from July 14 - 18 [14]. - **Weekly News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of plans to stabilize the growth of ten key industries, including non-ferrous metals. In the first half of the year, the non-ferrous metal industry had positive growth in production, revenue, and profit, and its green - low - carbon level improved significantly. Chile will discuss the impact of US copper tariffs. LME's 8 Hong Kong approved warehousing facilities started operation. Kazakhstan plans to restrict the export of certain key products and cancel the export tariff on gallium [15]. 2. Macro Analysis - **Domestic**: In Q2 2025, GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year. In June, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year. From January to June, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Exports supported industrial production, but real estate investment declined further [19]. - **Overseas**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. After the CPI release, the US dollar index and Treasury yields rose, and the expectation of interest rate cuts decreased slightly [22]. 3. Copper Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The processing fee TC remained weak [28]. - **Futures Market**: COMEX's net long positions increased [31]. - **Overseas Market**: The US dollar index rebounded from a low level [35]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, SMM's national mainstream copper inventories decreased by 4,300 tons to 143,300 tons compared to Monday, and were 231,800 tons lower than the same period last year [41]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The spot premium widened [44]. - **Foreign Market**: The US dollar index rebounded from a low level [48]. - **Inventory**: The report provided data on electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod social inventories, as well as LME and SHFE aluminum inventories [50]. - **Downstream开工**: As of July 17, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing industries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 58.8%. Different sectors had different trends, and SMM expected the weekly operating rate to decline by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week [52]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 17, the SMM ADC12 price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 20,000 yuan/ton. The industry faced cost and demand challenges, and prices were expected to fluctuate narrowly [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The report analyzed the relationship between the price of electrolytic aluminum and the prices of alumina, pre - baked anodes, and thermal coal [60]. 5. Alumina Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Spot prices remained stable [63]. - **Futures Market**: Inventory futures continued to decline [65]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply changed little, with some areas having tight supply due to maintenance. Demand increased as some electrolytic aluminum enterprises resumed production or transferred capacity [70]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of the week of July 17, the domestic alumina industry cost was 2,995.43 yuan/ton, and the average profit was 193.15 yuan/ton [71].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discounts, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index rebounds slightly but remains in the negative range, and port inventories increase slightly. Recently, the decline in copper prices has dragged down the copper ore quotation slightly. - On the supply side, due to the relatively abundant raw materials and the good price of the by - product sulfuric acid of smelters, the production willingness of smelters remains relatively positive, and the domestic supply may increase steadily and slightly. - On the demand side, affected by the seasonal consumption off - season, the start - up and orders of downstream copper processing enterprises have declined. Coupled with the price - holding behavior of holders, downstream purchasing attitudes are cautious, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market is relatively light. - In terms of inventory, the domestic social inventory accumulates slightly but still operates at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply and temporarily weak demand, but due to the increasing macro - policy benefits, the industry expectations are gradually repaired. - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.65, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0536, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreases slightly. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars converge slightly. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position, slightly bullish trading in a volatile market, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,700 yuan/ton, up 1,290 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,865.50 US dollars/ton, up 87 US dollars. - The inter - month spread of the main contract is 0 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 137,484 lots, down 7,946 lots. - The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper are - 1,352 lots, up 3,254 lots; the LME copper inventory is 122,175 tons, up 25 tons. - The inventory of cathode copper in the SHFE is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 14,075 tons, up 2,875 tons. - The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 28,177 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,555 yuan/ton, up 895 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 79,640 yuan/ton, up 1,015 yuan. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 65 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the CU main contract is - 145 yuan/ton, down 395 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 53.76 US dollars/ton, up 4.95 US dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 43.45 US dollars/kiloton, up 0.34 US dollars. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,960 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,660 yuan/metal ton, up 1,050 yuan. - The processing fee for blister copper in the South is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the North is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 1.302 billion tons, up 480 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,090 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,300 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.2145 billion tons, up 118.5 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.64%, up 1.44 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.12%, up 0.83 percentage points. - The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 9.49%, down 0.0044 percentage points; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.65, up 0.0536. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in the US rose slightly by about 1 point to 61.8 in July, reaching a five - month high; consumers' expectation of price increases in the next year dropped to 4.4%, the lowest since February. - Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: The latest consumer price index data shows that tariffs are pushing up commodity inflation, and he is "slightly worried" about this. Interest rates are expected to drop significantly in the next year. - The Ministry of Commerce: China's consumer market ranks second in the world. In the past four years, the average annual growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 5.5%, and it is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year. Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, the cumulative foreign investment absorbed has exceeded 700 billion US dollars, and the average annual growth rate of China's foreign investment has exceeded 5%. The proportion of exports to the US in total exports decreased from 17.4% in 2020 to 14.7% in 2024. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: It will continue to implement the high - quality development implementation plans for the copper, aluminum, and gold industries, and issue and implement a new round of work plans for stabilizing growth in the non - ferrous metals industry; encourage innovation in new non - ferrous metal materials and green and low - carbon process technologies, build a number of green mines, green factories, and green industrial parks, cultivate typical scenarios, benchmark factories, and benchmark enterprises for digital transformation, and promote the in - depth integration of artificial intelligence technology with the industry. - Three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly held a symposium on the new energy vehicle industry to deploy further standardization of the competition order in the new energy vehicle industry. - The Fourth Central Steering Group conducted a special research symposium on comprehensively rectifying the irrational competition problem in the new energy vehicle industry, requiring leading enterprises to compete legally, rationally, and jointly resist irrational competition in the industry to maintain a fair and just market competition order. - According to Yicai, the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River is located in Nyingchi City, Tibet Autonomous Region. The project mainly adopts the development method of straightening the river bend and diverting water through tunnels, and will build 5 cascade power stations with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The project's electricity is mainly for external consumption, taking into account the local self - use needs in Tibet. [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong rebound driven by multiple favorable factors, indicating significant wealth opportunities and challenges ahead [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The A-share non-ferrous metal index reached a peak of 5324 points, reflecting a 1.99% increase, successfully breaking a two-day downward trend [1] - Global copper inventory is critically low at 91,000 tons, sufficient for only three days of consumption, exacerbated by a 30% reduction in copper production due to a miners' strike in Peru [2] - The aluminum market is also experiencing high demand, with social inventory dropping by 70,000 tons in one week, and 30% of small aluminum plants being eliminated due to policy restrictions [2] Group 2: Policy Support - Central government policies are targeting price competition, with measures such as power restrictions on aluminum plants and preferential mining quotas for leading companies, effectively consolidating market positions [3] Group 3: Capital Inflow and Company Performance - Major funds are actively investing in leading companies, with significant purchases in Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth, indicating strong institutional interest [4] - Precious metals are performing well, with Shandong Gold seeing a five-day volume increase and silver futures reaching a three-year high, driven by a 30% price surge this year [4] Group 4: Industry Leaders and Competitive Advantages - Leading companies like Zijin Mining and Yunnan Aluminum are benefiting from high resource self-sufficiency and cost advantages, while Jiangxi Copper is leveraging processing fee mechanisms to enhance profitability [5] - The lithium sector is thriving, with Ganfeng Lithium securing long-term contracts with Tesla, reflecting robust demand in the new energy supply chain [5] Group 5: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The non-ferrous metal sector is witnessing a supply-demand imbalance, igniting interest and competition within the market [6] Group 6: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautiously optimistic, focusing on companies with over 70% resource self-sufficiency and considering options like silver LOF and non-ferrous ETFs for lower risk exposure [10]

Industry Overview - Copper strip is a key material in modern industry, known for its excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, processing performance, and corrosion resistance, widely used in new energy and electronic electrical fields [1][4] - The industry is experiencing a "quantity and quality rise" trend, with total production capacity expected to reach 4.179 million tons and output exceeding 3 million tons by 2024, while the proportion of high-end products is projected to increase to 35% [1][10] - The new energy vehicle sector has become a core growth driver, with production and sales in the first five months of 2025 increasing by over 44% year-on-year, significantly boosting demand for high-conductivity copper strips [1][22] Import and Export Dynamics - The import and export landscape is characterized by accelerated import substitution and steady export growth, with exports expected to increase by 20.61% year-on-year in 2024 [1][12] - In 2024, the total import volume of copper strips is projected to be approximately 88,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.28%, while exports are expected to reach 124,200 tons [12][14] - The import structure is shifting towards high-value-added products, while exports are primarily focused on general-purpose products, indicating a trend towards higher technical content and added value in trade [14][21] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape of the copper strip industry is evolving into a gradient structure, with leading companies like Jiangxi Copper and Tongling Nonferrous Metals dominating over 60% of the high-end market through technological innovation and cost reduction [16][18] - Medium-sized enterprises are focusing on niche markets, while smaller firms are facing pressure due to environmental standards and market saturation, leading to accelerated exits from the market [16][18] - The industry is expected to consolidate further, with a focus on technological leadership and high-end production capabilities [18][21] Future Trends - The copper strip industry is witnessing three core trends: high-end breakthrough, structural differentiation, and green transformation, driven by technological advancements and market demands [21][22] - The demand for copper strips in the new energy vehicle sector is expected to exceed 2 million tons by 2025, accounting for over 40% of global copper consumption growth [22][23] - Companies are increasingly investing in green technologies and innovations to enhance competitiveness, with significant potential for import substitution in high-end markets [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply-side reform in China is expected to break the deflationary cycle and create investment opportunities in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors [1][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of "supply constraints" to manage the supply-demand balance and mitigate economic downturn risks [6][12] - The steel industry is facing severe overcapacity, with state-owned enterprises holding a significant market share, which facilitates the implementation of administrative measures to control production [6][28] Summary by Sections 1. Supply-Side Reform and Economic Management - The socialist market economy in China allows for effective macroeconomic control, contrasting with the cyclical issues faced in capitalist economies [12][13] - Historical experiences show that demand stimulus alone is insufficient to resolve deep-seated deflationary pressures [14][15] - The supply-side reform initiated in 2016 has proven successful in stabilizing prices and improving corporate profitability [21][22] 2. Steel Industry Analysis - The steel industry has been in a state of oversupply from 2007 to 2024, with crude steel production increasing from 490 million tons to 1.01 billion tons, while apparent consumption has not kept pace [28][29] - The production capacity utilization rates for rebar and wire rod are expected to decline from around 70% to 50% due to weak real estate demand [33][34] - The concentration of production among state-owned enterprises is high, with central state-owned enterprises accounting for approximately 63% of total production in 2024 [38][39] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of investment targets: profit recovery, stable profit with valuation repair, and stable high-dividend stocks [51] - Specific companies recommended for profit recovery include Liugang Co., Taigang Stainless Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel, with projected annualized PE ratios improving significantly under favorable conditions [51]

Core Viewpoint - The legal opinion from Beijing Deheng Law Firm confirms that Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd.'s differentiated dividend distribution plan complies with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring no harm to the interests of the company and its shareholders [6]. Group 1: Reasons for Differentiated Dividend - The company held a board meeting on February 19, 2024, approving a share repurchase plan, which was completed by May 17, 2024, with a total of 10,441,768 A-shares repurchased [2][4]. Group 2: Differentiated Dividend Plan - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7 RMB (including tax) for every 10 shares, based on a total share capital of 2,075,247,405 shares, excluding the repurchased shares [4][5]. - The total cash dividend to be distributed amounts to 1,445,363,945.90 RMB [5]. Group 3: Calculation Basis for Differentiated Dividend - The reference price for the ex-dividend (ex-rights) calculation is determined by the formula: (previous closing price - cash dividend) [5]. - The actual ex-rights reference price calculated is approximately 21.49 RMB per share, with a minimal impact of less than 1% on the stock price due to the differentiated dividend [5]. Group 4: Conclusion - The legal opinion concludes that the differentiated dividend distribution is in accordance with the Company Law, Securities Law, and other relevant regulations, and does not harm the interests of the company or its shareholders [6].

江西铜业股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.70元 证券代码：600362 证券简称：江西铜业 公告编号：2025-026 ? 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | | 最后交易日 | | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/7/21 | － | | 2025/7/22 | 2025/7/22 | | ? 差异化分红送转： 是 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 6 月 6 日的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 （1）公司于 2025 年 3 月 27 日、2025 年 6 月 6 日分别召开了第十届董事会第八次会议、 案》。本公司 ...

北京德恒律师事务所 关于江西铜业股份有限公司 差异化分红事项的 法律意见 北京市西城区金融街 19 号富凯大厦 B 座 12 层 电话：010-52682888 传真：010-52682999 邮编：100033 北京德恒律师事务所 关于江西铜业股份有限公司差异化分红事项的法律意见 北京德恒律师事务所 关于江西铜业股份有限公司 差异化分红事项的 法律意见 德恒 01G20230544-07 号 致：江西铜业股份有限公司 北京德恒律师事务所（以下简称"本所"）接受江西铜业股份有限公司（以 下简称"公司"或"上市公司"）的委托，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以 下简称"《公司法》"）、《中华人民共和国证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）、 《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 7 号——回购股份》（以下简称"《回 购指引》"）、《上海证券交易所股票上市规则》《江西铜业股份有限公司章程》 （以下简称"《公司章程》"）等相关法律、法规及规范性文件的规定，就公司 2024 年度利润分配涉及的差异化分红（以下简称"本次差异化分红"）相关事项 发表本法律意见。 为出具本法律意见，本所律师作出如下声明： 1.本所律师依据中国 ...

相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2025/7/21 | － | 2025/7/22 | 2025/7/22 | 证券代码：600362 证券简称：江西铜业 公告编号：2025-026 江西铜业股份有限公司 2024年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利0.70元 差异化分红送转： 是 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司2025 年 6 月 6 日的2024年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 3. 差异化分红送转方案： （1）公司于 2025 年 3 月 27 日、2025 年 6 月 6 日分别召开了第十届董事会第八次会议、 20 ...

China Copper Equities Turning point China The long expected US import tax on copper is finally here: On Tuesday 8 July, US President Trump announced plans to implement a 50% tariff on imported copper and the tariff may be implemented as soon as this month (see Copper: Trump announces 50% import tariff, 9 July). The US imports around 50% of its refined copper demand per year, predominantly from Chile (65%), Canada (17%), and Mexico (9%). Given the impending tariffs, Comex copper prices have spiked over 10% s ...