Group 1 - Precious metals prices have surged, with spot gold exceeding $4500 per ounce and silver surpassing $72 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [3] - The A-share market saw mixed reactions, with mining ETFs initially rising before retreating, and some stocks like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold closing lower [3] - Analysts believe that the weakening of the US dollar's credibility is becoming clearer, enhancing gold's monetary attributes and supporting its long-term outlook [3][4] Group 2 - The London spot gold reached a daily high of $4525.19 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 70%, while silver saw a rise of approximately 140% [3] - Several A-share stocks, including Xingye Yinxin, Zijin Mining, and Chifeng Gold, have increased by over 100% this year, supported by improved industry profitability [4] - The global gold ETF holdings have risen for six consecutive months, reaching 3932 tons by the end of November, with China being the largest single source of net inflows [6] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to begin a rate-cutting cycle by September 2025, alongside escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to the continued rise in gold and silver prices [5] - Historical data indicates that gold has outperformed the S&P 500 in 7 out of 8 past rate-cutting cycles initiated by the Federal Reserve [6] - Institutions maintain a positive long-term outlook for precious metals, with some projecting gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [6]

证券日报网讯12月24日，中金黄金（600489）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司将按规定及时披 露资产注入进展。公司纱岭项目进展在年报、半年报中进行披露。 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals sector experienced a decline of 1.37% on December 24, with Shanjin International leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3940.95, up 0.53%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13486.42, up 0.88% [1] - Key individual stocks in the precious metals sector showed varied performance, with Hunan Silver rising by 2.27% to a closing price of 6.75, while several others, including Shanjin International, saw declines [1][3] Group 2 - The net outflow of main funds from the precious metals sector was 501 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 611 million yuan [3][4] - Specific stock fund flows indicated that Hunan Silver had a net inflow of 22.87 million yuan from main funds, while Shanjin International experienced a net outflow of 50.24 million yuan [4] - The overall trading volume and turnover for various stocks in the sector were significant, with Shandong Gold recording a turnover of 2.184 billion yuan despite a decline of 1.55% [1][3] Group 3 - The gold stock ETF (product code: 159562) tracks the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock Index and has seen a recent increase in shares by 6 million, with a net subscription of 13.45 million yuan [6] - The ETF has a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.14 and has experienced a 5-day increase of 2.87% [6]

东方证券表示，自11月初看好黄金以来，沪金平值隐含波动率整体在18%-26%区间内波动，黄金价格维 持稳步上涨，行情始终未进入到加速阶段。虽然12月22日伴随沪金向上突破1000元/克，上期所黄金平 值期权隐波同步上升至25%，但并未偏离过往波动区间，仍属正常波动范围，故后续黄金或仍将维持稳 步上涨的节奏。在美元信用恶化的中期逻辑下，黄金依然值得投资者保持关注。 白银：价格与隐波同步创新高，白银仍然看好但短期波动大不宜盲目增仓 智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，12月22日，伦敦金现首次站上4400美元关口，再创历史新 高，今年以来累计涨幅超68%；伦敦银现价格一度攀升至69美元/盎司上方，同样创下历史最高水平。 根据上期所黄金、白银收盘价与平值期权隐含波动率变化情况，商品端两者后续投资节奏或存在分化。 自11月初看好黄金以来，沪金平值隐含波动率整体在18%-26%区间内波动，黄金价格维持稳步上涨，行 情始终未进入到加速阶段。而白银价格与隐波同步创历史新高，意味着后续短期市场波动较大。 东方证券主要观点如下： 金银同创历史新高之时，后续投资节奏或随隐波而分化 东方证券认为，根据上期所黄金、白银收盘价与平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a strong rally, with the China Securities 800 Non-Ferrous Metals Index showing a 62.47% return over the past six months, indicating robust investor confidence in the sector [29][5]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Global manufacturing activity is showing signs of recovery, providing a fundamental support for metal demand, while expectations of potential U.S. import tariffs are leading to a "stockpiling" trend for specific metals like copper [6][33]. - The market anticipates a rise in the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is contributing to a rebound in precious metals, with silver recently reaching historical highs [6][33]. - Structural constraints in global copper supply are becoming increasingly evident, with processing fees for copper concentrate declining, raising concerns about future production capacity [6][33]. - The global energy transition is driving long-term demand growth for non-ferrous metals, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and renewable energy [6][33]. - Emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics are creating new demand for specialty metals like tin and rare earth materials, reshaping their value assessment [6][33]. Group 2: Index Characteristics - The China Securities 800 Non-Ferrous Metals Index is a representative tool for investors in the A-share non-ferrous metals sector, focusing on mid to large-cap companies with good liquidity and representativeness [3][4]. - The index covers the entire non-ferrous metal industry chain, including mining, smelting, and processing, encompassing all major sub-sectors such as industrial metals, precious metals, and energy metals [10][33]. - The index is weighted towards leading companies in the industry, effectively reflecting the performance of core assets and capturing the main contradictions in industry development [10][33]. Group 3: Fund Overview - The only public fund closely tracking the China Securities 800 Non-Ferrous Metals Index is the CITIC Prudential China Securities 800 Non-Ferrous Index Fund (LOF), established on August 30, 2013, and transitioned to an open-end fund on January 1, 2021 [34][41]. - The fund aims to achieve effective tracking of the index through rigorous quantitative management and investment discipline, with a target tracking error of less than 0.35% daily and 4% annually [38][34]. - The fund's top holdings include leading companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a significant weight in its portfolio, aligning closely with the index characteristics [36][37].

Group 1 - The precious metals sector opened high but experienced a decline, with significant drops in stocks such as Shanjin International and Western Gold, both falling over 2% [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Shandong Gold, Sichuan Gold, and Hunan Gold, also saw declines in their stock prices [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a mixed performance on December 24, with the non-ferrous sector experiencing significant fluctuations, particularly the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652), which saw a peak increase of over 1.5% before stabilizing at a 0.19% gain [1] - Prices for copper, gold, and lithium surged, leading to a substantial inflow of funds into the non-ferrous sector, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF recording a net subscription of 18 million shares, amounting to over 29 million yuan [1] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF's latest scale exceeded 3.7 billion yuan, indicating a strong interest in the sector, with a notable increase in financing balance [1] Group 2 - The top ten constituent stocks of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF include companies like Changqing Mining, which rose by 0.19%, and Huayou Cobalt, which increased by 1.9%, while others like Zhongjin Gold and Northern Rare Earth experienced declines [2] - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $4,510 and silver futures exceeding $71.79 per ounce, marking a significant increase in precious metals [3] - The copper market continued its upward trend, with LME copper prices reaching $12,055 per ton, reflecting a 1.09% increase, while domestic copper prices also rose [3] Group 3 - The outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of continued price increases driven by central bank gold purchases and a weakening dollar, alongside geopolitical risks [5] - The copper market is expected to maintain strong pricing due to supply vulnerabilities and robust demand from sectors like electric grids and AI, with long-term processing fees for copper contracts being set lower than previous years [6] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF is positioned to benefit from a comprehensive exposure to various metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, capitalizing on the ongoing super cycle in non-ferrous metals [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth trends in China's non-ferrous metal production, indicating a steady increase in output and providing insights into future market dynamics from 2025 to 2031 [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - In October 2025, China's production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 6.95 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [1] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of these ten non-ferrous metals totaled 68.143 million tons, marking a cumulative growth of 3.1% [1] Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector include Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), China Aluminum (601600), Northern Rare Earth (600111), Jiangxi Copper (600362), Yunnan Copper (000878), Chihong Zn & Ge (600497), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Western Mining (601168), and Shenghe Resources (600392) [1] Group 3: Research Insights - The report is published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China, which specializes in providing in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1]

Core Insights - The first shipment of duty-free processed goods from Hainan Heren Pearl Co., Ltd. marks a significant milestone for the Hainan Free Trade Port (FTP) following customs closure [1][2] Group 1: Company Developments - Hainan Heren Pearl Co., Ltd. has successfully transported 18K gold seawater pearl jewelry from Sanya to Guangzhou, utilizing the FTP's import and export management system [1][2] - The company has benefited from a reduction in the comprehensive tax rate from 51.92% to 25.56%, significantly lowering production costs and enabling competitive retail pricing [3] - The savings from reduced tariffs allow the company to invest more in research and development, driving industrial transformation [3] Group 2: Industry Growth - Sanya has actively promoted the gold and jewelry industry by leveraging zero-tariff and low-tax policies, establishing industrial parks that attract major companies [4] - The industrial cluster effect is becoming evident, with a full-chain ecosystem for the gold and jewelry industry taking shape, including raw material imports, refining, processing, exhibition, and sales [4] - Since the beginning of the year, Sanya Customs has registered 9,838 new declaration units, a year-on-year increase of 40.34%, indicating a thriving processing trade sector [5] - The value of zero-tariff imported goods has reached 650 million yuan, resulting in nearly 150 million yuan in tax reductions for businesses, enhancing market competitiveness [5]

晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 编辑人 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.12.24） 固定收益研究 成交规模增长，信用利差走阔——信用债周报 公司研究 享西部资源红利，乘铜市景气东风——西部矿业（601168）深度报告 行业研究 美国通胀缓和，金价获得支撑——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/12/24） 中央和地方持续积极优化房地产政策，托举政策持续发力，积极释放刚性和改善性住房需求，对推动房地 产止跌回稳发挥了积极的作用。尽管当前房地产市场还处在新旧模式转换时期，但随着稳楼市各项政策显 效，房地产市场继续朝着止跌回稳的方向迈进。基于城市发展正从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效 为主的阶段这一论断，下阶段的目标是要积极构建房地产发展新模式，坚持长短结合、标本兼治，持续用 力推动房地产市场高质量发展，后续政策出台的节奏和力度值得期待。地产债方面，销售复苏进程将对债 券估值 ...