股 票 研 究 燃机巨头订单旺盛，机器人基础模型 Pi 06 鲁棒性提升 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 机械行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 刘麒硕(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | liuqishuo@gtht.com | S0880525080005 | 本报告导读： 上周（2026/2/24-2026/2/27）机械设备指数涨跌幅为+4.40%。燃机巨头订单旺盛，GEV 排产达 2029 年，地缘政治动荡推升油服设备景气上行。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《春节后气体整体表现偏弱；广钢气体 中标海南商业航天发射场氦气采购项目》 2026.03.01 机械行业《具身模型 Pi 06 鲁棒性大幅提升，国 内人形初创百亿估值俱乐部增加至 6 家》 2026.02.28 机械行业《出口链月度跟踪：主要航线海运费同 ...

相关研究 [Table_Report ： ] 商业航天行业系列六:3D 打印：柔性制造的引擎，重塑火箭价值链 2026-02-11 商业航天行业系列四:太空算力：太阳翼或为最优通胀环节 2026-01-14 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|通用设备 2026 年 3 月 3 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 商业航天行业系列七 | | | | 火箭回收方案：运载能力、成本与技术的三方博弈 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tabl 分析师： | 代川 | 分析师： | 孙柏阳 | 分析师： 蒲明琪 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260517080007 | | SAC 执证号：S0260520080002 | SAC 执证号：S0260524080003 | | | SFC CE.no: BOS186 | | | SFC CE.no: BUP066 | | | 021-38003678 | | 021-38003680 | 021-38003807 | | | daichuan@ ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业专题 2026 年 03 月 02 日 机械设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《智能制造行业周报：存储扩产确定性提升， 持续推荐"两长"设备产业链》2026-02-09 《智能制造行业周报：SpaceX 申请百万颗卫 星，卫星互联网产业化提速》2026-02-02 《智能制造行业周报：SpaceX 推进星链升级与 IPO 进程》2026-01-26 《以第一性原理推演中国商业航天降本革命— —商业航天行业深度系列（一)》2026-01-21 《智能制造行业周报：看好 2026 年中国商业 航天产业拐点确立》2026-01-20 王凯 S0820524120002 021-32229888-25522 wangkai526@ajzq.com 行业及产业 人形机器人供应链海外产能布局加速推进 ——全球人形机器人产业周报（一） 强于大市 投资要点： 人形机器人指数：本周（2026/02/23–2026/02/27）人形机器人指数（886069.TI）上涨 0.48%，板块整体维持震荡格局。估值层面，指数 PE 环比提升 ...

[Table_IndustryInfo] 2026 年 03 月 01 日 强于大市(维持) 证券研究报告•行业研究•机械设备 机器人行业周报（0223-0301） 宇树科技发布新款机器狗， 宝马欧洲工厂即将部署人形机器人 投资要点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：邰桂龙 执业证号：S1250521050002 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：tgl@swsc.com.cn 分析师：周鑫雨 执业证号：S1250523070008 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：zxyu@swsc.com.cn 分析师：杨云杰 执业证号：S1250525100001 电话：021-58351893 邮箱：yyjie@swsc.com.cn [Table_QuotePic] 行业相对指数表现 数据来源：聚源数据 -18% -7% 4% 16% 27% 38% 25/2 25/4 25/6 25/8 25/10 25/12 26/2 机械设备 沪深300 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 [Table_Summary 行情回顾：本周（] 2 月 23 日-3 月 1 日）机器人指数跑输大盘 ...

2025 年市场更偏向以"进入特斯拉产业链"与"量产视角"评估产业链环节 机会，重点在于哪些零部件或环节可能凭借供应链切入获得增量；进入 2026 年后，事件与股价表现显示，单纯围绕"量产与产业链切入"的叙事边际影响 持续减弱。新的核心关注点转向"是否具备大脑能力或具备形成大脑能力的路 径"，重点识别哪些公司有机会形成具身智能的大脑模型；其投资机会与股价 表现更可能随模型能力的推进而持续演绎。 第一阶段选股聚焦"谁更有机会形成模型"，重点关注特斯拉产业链 （受益于自动驾驶技术迁移）和国内垂直应用领域公司（场景封闭、任 务单一，易于落地）。 中国人形机器人销量领先，但市值低于海外公司，核心差异在于 AI 研发 能力和大脑模型能力。2026 年具备模型能力的公司有望获得更高估值 溢价。 具身智能大模型相关投资机会的阶段划分与演进路径是什么，当前处于哪个阶 段？ 人形机器人大脑叙事新视角 20260226 摘要 人形机器人投资逻辑正从"量产与产业链切入"转向"大脑能力"，即 公司是否具备或有潜力形成具身智能大模型，模型能力推进将持续影响 股价表现。 大模型投资分三个阶段：模型形成、数据训练、异构训练。当前处于第 一 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Engineering Machinery Industry Industry Overview - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a potential recovery due to the nearing update cycle of excavators in China, combined with emission constraints and accelerated second-hand machinery exports, leading to a possible lower actual ownership than market expectations [1][2] - The "artificial substitution" logic continues to drive demand, with room for growth in excavator ownership compared to developed countries, particularly as urbanization progresses and maintenance needs increase [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - The domestic equipment update cycle typically spans 8-10 years, with a significant portion of excavators entering a phase of extended usage and maintenance costs, indicating a need for gradual updates [2] - The actual ownership of excavators may be tighter than market estimates due to the impact of engine updates and emission constraints, as well as accelerated second-hand exports, which could lead to a steeper demand curve if recovery occurs [2] - The shift in construction demand from "earthwork" to "non-excavation" categories, such as truck cranes and crawler cranes, suggests a potential expansion of investment into tower cranes and subsequent maintenance phases [1][4] Export Trends - A notable increase in engineering machinery exports is expected by the end of 2025, with an estimated growth rate of approximately 14% for the year, driven by changes in tariff policies and enhanced competitiveness of Chinese companies [5][6] - The demand for overseas mining machinery is supported not only by commodity prices but also by the sustained urbanization efforts in resource-rich countries, providing ongoing support for engineering machinery demand [7] Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Market Influence - China's FDI growth, particularly in Belt and Road Initiative countries, has increased Chinese participation in local mining and energy projects, thereby boosting demand for engineering machinery [8][9] Market Signals and Demand Recovery - Recent surveys indicate a more optimistic outlook for equipment purchases in the U.S. market, with a decrease in contractors planning to refrain from buying equipment, suggesting a structural improvement in demand [10][12] - In Europe, particularly Germany, there are positive signals with engineering machinery orders showing an 18% year-on-year increase, indicating a better-than-expected performance [13] Rental Market and Recovery Indicators - The domestic tower crane rental market shows signs of recovery, with rental rates and utilization rates reaching their highest levels in three years, indicating a potential upward trend in demand [14] Future Catalysts - Key catalysts for future growth include domestic macro and industrial policies, global commodity price trends, and the expansion of data center construction in Southeast Asia, which may drive additional demand for engineering machinery [15][16] Sector and Stock Recommendations - The focus is on three main categories: complete machinery (e.g., SANY, XCMG), components (e.g., Hengli Hydraulic), and general equipment (e.g., Anhui Heli). The order of benefits will depend on the timing of demand recovery in emerging markets versus developed markets [17]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **engineering machinery industry** and its outlook for **2026**. The industry is expected to experience a mild recovery, with significant potential for growth driven by various factors, including seasonal demand and policy support [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand Surge in 2026**: The traditional peak season for engineering machinery in China (March-April) is likely to exceed expectations due to higher market share aspirations from manufacturers and diversified sales strategies [1][2]. - **Improvement in Payment Collection**: Since August 2024, payment collection has improved from a range of 30%-40% to nearly 50%, indicating a shift from a critical balance state to a more sustainable one [3]. - **Sales Growth Projections**: The domestic sales growth for engineering machinery in 2026 is projected to be between **5%-10%** under baseline conditions, with potential increases to **10%-20%** if unconventional sales methods like "turning to export" and operating leases are considered [4][5]. - **Export Performance**: The unexpected export growth in 2025 was primarily driven by demand from regions such as Africa, the Middle East, and Indonesia, particularly for large excavators, which have significantly higher profit margins compared to other products [6][7]. Additional Important Content - **Risks and Challenges**: Key risks include exchange rate fluctuations and the impact of Russia's scrappage tax on short-term export volatility [9][10]. - **Cost Structure and Material Prices**: The impact of rising raw material prices on manufacturers is manageable, as direct materials constitute a relatively low percentage of total costs, and the ability to pass on costs is limited [11]. - **Valuation Trends**: Leading manufacturers are currently valued at around **20 times earnings**, with potential for further upward adjustment due to improved asset quality and shareholder returns [12][13]. - **Stock Selection Recommendations**: The focus for stock selection includes major manufacturers such as SANY, Zoomlion, XCMG, LiuGong, and Shantui, as well as component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic [14]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections regarding the engineering machinery industry, highlighting both opportunities and risks as the sector approaches 2026.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Overweight" for the mechanical equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights investment opportunities in the AIDC and solar power sectors due to electricity shortages in North America, as well as historical opportunities in advanced packaging equipment for semiconductors [1][2][3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: Northern Huachuang, SANY Heavy Industry, Zhongwei Company, Hengli Hydraulic, CIMC, Tuojing Technology, Haitian International, Bichu Electronics, Jingsheng Mechanical, Jereh, Zhejiang Dingli, Hangcha Group, Xianjin Intelligent, Changchuan Technology, Huace Detection, Anhui Helix, Jingce Electronics, Nuwei Co., Chip Source Micro, Green Harmonics, Haitian Precision, Hangke Technology, Yizhiming, New Lai Materials, and High Measurement Shares [1] Gas Turbine Sector - The report notes that President Trump encourages large companies to build their own power sources, which is expected to boost demand for natural gas power generation equipment. The domestic gas turbine industry is highlighted as having significant investment opportunities, particularly for companies like Jereh, Dongfang Electric, and Yingliu [2] Photovoltaic Equipment - The report emphasizes the growing demand for solar power in both terrestrial and space computing applications, with Tesla planning to expand its solar capacity significantly by 2028. Companies recommended in this sector include Maiwei Shares, Jingsheng Mechanical, High Measurement Shares, and Aotwei [3] Semiconductor Equipment - The report discusses the benefits for domestic equipment manufacturers due to rising tensions between China and Japan, which favor local alternatives. Companies like Changchuan Technology, Chip Source Micro, and Maiwei are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [4] PCB Equipment and Liquid Cooling - NVIDIA's strong performance is noted, with significant revenue growth indicating robust demand for computing power. The report suggests investment opportunities in the PCB and liquid cooling supply chains, recommending companies like Dazhu CNC, Chip Source Micro, and Yinguang Technology [5][6] Robotics Industry - The report indicates a recent pullback in the robotics sector but suggests that upcoming events, such as the release of Tesla's V3 robot, could catalyze growth. Companies like Hengli Hydraulic and Sanhua Intelligent are recommended as key players [10] Oil and Gas Equipment - The report identifies the Middle East as a core market for oil services, with companies like Jereh and Nuwei highlighted for their growth potential in this region [43]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 机械设备行业跟踪周报 看好北美缺电带来的 AIDC 和太空算力光伏 设备机会&关注半导体先进封装设备历史性 机遇 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [1.Table_Summary] 推荐组合：北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、浙江鼎力、杭叉集团、先导智能、长川科技、 华测检测、安徽合力、精测电子、纽威股份、芯源微、绿的谐波、海天精工、杭可科 技、伊之密、新莱应材、高测股份、纽威数控、华中数控。 【燃气轮机】特朗普鼓励大厂自建电源，重申国产燃机产业链投资机会 2026 年 2 月 6 日，CNBC 报道称美国总统特朗普将与亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软等大型科技公司 高管在白宫会面，并计划于 3 月 4 日签署相关协议，要求在保障 AIDC 持续发展的同时由企业自 行解决电力供应问题，利好天然气发电设备需求，加快项目落地速度。严重的供需失衡环节，重 申国产燃机产业链投资机会：1）GEV/西门子/三菱重工上游零部件扩产难度大，到 2030 年板块 合计产能约 90GW，仍小于总需求；2）产能不足限制美国链 ...

2026 年 3 月 1 日 联合研究 春归 ——光研之声 2026 年 3 月联合月报 要点 当前策略观点 2 月权益市场先抑后扬。2 月份的资本市场在月初出现了一定程度的波动， 但之后持续回升。我们认为主要原因一方面与春节前市场交易热度下行有 关，另一方面也受到了短期政策引导市场降温以及部分中长期资金短期流出 影响。并不影响市场长期趋势。在春节后，市场逐步回升，交易热度也有所 提升。 未来将进入到经济数据与政策验证阶段，市场表现值得期待。在春节之后， 市场交易热度会出现季节性回升，奠定了未来市场表现的基础。同时，未来 一个月市场将进入到密集的数据与政策验证期。1、2 月份的一系列经济金融 数据将会逐步披露，奠定市场对于全年经济的基础预期。从目前已经披露的 部分数据以及高频数据来看，经济仍然处于高质量逐步修复的趋势之中。结 合之前的年报预告情况，预计未来经济与企业盈利数据将给资本市场带来支 撑。此外，全国"两会"也将在 3 月份召开，这将确定全年的政策基调以及 经济目标，对于资本市场同样意义重大，值得重点关注。不过外部可能会有 一定的不确定性，例如中东区域，或许会带来一定程度扰动。总体来看，3 月份权益市场 ...