证券研究报告 | 2026年03月02日 2026年03月03日 互联网行业 2026 年 3 月投资策略 优于大市 观察 Agent 对互联网生态流量和用户的影响，优选领先大模型厂商和算力供应 链 核心观点 行业研究·行业投资策略 互联网 2 月行情回顾：2 月恒生科技指数单月下跌 10.15%。同期，纳斯达克互 联网指数 2 月录得下跌，单月跌幅为 7.87%。个股方面，互联网多数股 票股价表现一致下跌，港股方面，京东集团、京东健康、阅文集团为本 月表现前三的股票，单月涨幅为-7.1%、-10.3%、-11.7%。其中京东集 团跑赢恒生科技指数 3.05pct，京东健康、阅文集团分别跑输恒生科技 指数 0.65pct、1.55pct。美股方面，拼多多、唯品会、微博为本月表现 前三的股票，单月涨幅为 2.7%、1.8%、-6.1%，跑赢纳斯达克指数 6.08pct、 5.18pct、-2.72pct。从市盈率看，恒生科技指数估值略有下降：截至 2026 年 2 月 27 日，恒生科技指数 PE-TTM 为 21.20x，处于恒生科技指 数成立以来 17.18%分位点。 人工智能动态：1）谷歌：推出 AI 购 ...

有分析指出，经过本轮回调，恒生科技指数的估值水平已回落至历史低位区间。对于长期投资者而言， 当前的价格提供了较高的安全边际，指数的长期配置吸引力显著增强。尽管短期存在竞争扰动，但核心 科技企业的盈利能力依然稳健。同时，各大企业在AI产业链上的深度布局已被市场长期看好，这将构 成未来业绩增长的核心驱动力。市场普遍预期，后续国内政策支持力度有望加大，且全球流动性环境存 在改善空间。政策底与流动性底的共振，将为科技股的反弹提供坚实支撑。 港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 2月27日，自2026年2月以来，恒生科技指数经历了一轮显著的震荡回调。作为该指数的核心权重股，腾 讯控股与阿里巴巴-SW在本月表现尤为疲软，累计跌幅均超过14%。与此同时，两家巨头的卖空数据呈 现出明显的上升态势，反映出市场短期情绪的波动。 腾讯控股的卖空数据在2月初触及阶段性高点，单周卖空股数一度攀升至655.63万股，创下自2025年8月 13日以来的最大数值。随后，该数据虽曾回落至93.02万股的低点，但在2月24日再度反弹至420.80万 股。截至最新收盘，腾讯控股的卖空股数维持在172.28万股，显示空头力量 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [3][28]. Core Insights - The report highlights that 2026 is expected to see a surge in mature AI agent products due to advancements in large models, particularly in multi-modal capabilities, long text processing, and reasoning abilities. This increase in demand for reasoning will drive revenue growth for upstream cloud computing vendors [2][25]. - It notes that domestic internet giants are approximately one year behind their overseas counterparts in AI capital expenditures. As the capabilities of large models improve and supply builds up, AI will increasingly empower the core businesses of these giants [2][25]. - The report anticipates that the third quarter will mark a peak in spending for the internet giants' food delivery competition, with a projected narrowing of losses for Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com in the fourth quarter [2][25]. - The report recommends focusing on AI-related stock selection, specifically highlighting Alibaba and Tencent Holdings as key investment opportunities [2][25]. Company Summaries - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) is rated "Outperform" with an adjusted EPS forecast of 27.60 in 2025 and 32.63 in 2026, with PE ratios of 20.3 and 17.1 respectively [3]. - Alibaba Group (9988.HK) is also rated "Outperform," with an adjusted EPS of 6.66 for 2025 and 8.77 for 2026, and PE ratios of 23.8 and 18.1 [3]. - Meituan (3690.HK) is rated "Outperform," with a forecasted adjusted EPS of -1.26 in 2025 and 5.20 in 2026, reflecting a significant improvement in its financial outlook [3]. - Baidu Group (9888.HK) is rated "Outperform," with an adjusted EPS of 7.64 for 2025 and 8.87 for 2026, and PE ratios of 19.7 and 17.0 [3]. - Kuaishou (1024.HK) is rated "Outperform," with an adjusted EPS forecast of 4.68 in 2025 and 5.51 in 2026, with PE ratios of 16.3 and 13.9 [3]. - Tencent Music (TME.N) is rated "Outperform," with an adjusted EPS of 5.64 for 2025 and 6.50 for 2026, and PE ratios of 21.1 and 18.4 [3]. - NetEase Cloud Music (9899.HK) is rated "Outperform," with an adjusted EPS of 14.54 for 2025 and 12.09 for 2026, with PE ratios of 11.5 and 13.8 [3]. - Meitu (1357.HK) is rated "Outperform," with an adjusted EPS of 0.16 for 2025 and 0.27 for 2026, with PE ratios of 48.6 and 28.8 [3].

经济观察网 港股午间收盘，恒生指数跌0.99%，恒生科技指数跌1.15%。权重科技股普遍下跌，阿里巴 巴-SW跌超3%，百度集团-SW逆势涨超2%；AI应用相关概念股持续回调，AI医疗方向跌幅明显，中资 券商股、保险股等大金融股多数下跌。 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3% this week, while the Hang Seng Composite Index rose by 2.6%. Large-cap stocks outperformed small-cap and mid-cap stocks, with the Hang Seng Large Cap Index up by 2.8% and the Hang Seng Mid Cap Index only increasing by 1.0% [1] - The internet sector led the market rally, with the Hang Seng Internet Index rising by 3.7%. Overall, 22 industries saw gains, while 7 experienced declines, with notable increases in the comprehensive sector (+16.3%) and retail trade (+8.8%) [1] Valuation Levels - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3% to 11.9x, with the Hang Seng Composite Index also at 11.9x after a 2.0% rise. The Hang Seng Internet Index saw a significant increase of 4.6% to 18.6x [2] - Among various strategies, the ROE defensive strategy's valuation rose by 2.5% to 9.0x, while the ROE offensive strategy decreased by 1.2% to 13.9x. Overall, 22 industries experienced valuation increases, with retail trade (+10.7%) and computers (+6.3%) leading the way [2] Earnings Expectations - The earnings per share (EPS) for the Hang Seng Index increased by 0.3% week-on-week, while the Hang Seng Composite Index saw a 0.4% rise. The Hang Seng High Dividend Index's EPS was revised up by 2.2%, contrasting with a slight decrease of 0.2% for the Hang Seng Internet Index [3] - A total of 15 industries had upward revisions in EPS, with the comprehensive sector seeing a notable increase of 13.7%. Conversely, 12 industries had downward revisions, with the construction materials sector experiencing a significant decrease of 4.6% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4][28]. Core Insights - The AI sector is witnessing significant developments, with major companies like Google and Amazon making strategic moves, including acquisitions and restructuring to enhance their AI capabilities [1][18][19]. - The report highlights that AI is driving substantial growth in advertising and cloud services for major internet companies, with Alibaba Cloud experiencing a year-over-year growth of 34% [2][25]. - The report suggests that the third quarter of 2025 may represent a bottom for profitability in the sector, presenting a good opportunity for investment in AI-focused stocks such as Alibaba and Tencent [2][25]. Company Dynamics - OpenAI has appointed former UK Chancellor George Osborne to lead the "OpenAI for Countries" initiative, aimed at enhancing collaboration with governments on AI infrastructure [16]. - Amazon is restructuring its AI department, integrating its AGI business with its chip and quantum computing teams [18]. - Google has acquired energy infrastructure company Intersect for $4.75 billion to support its AI development needs [20]. Underlying Technology - Google has launched its latest AI model, Gemini 3 Flash, which boasts improved performance and cost efficiency [22]. - ByteDance has released the Doubao model 1.8 and upgraded the Seedance model, achieving industry-leading capabilities in multimodal understanding and generation [22]. - Alibaba has introduced the Fun-Audio-Chat model for end-to-end voice interaction, which is now open-sourced [23]. Industry Policy - The "Shandong Province Artificial Intelligence Terminal Innovation Development Action Plan" has been released, aiming for a core industry competitiveness enhancement and a scale exceeding 450 billion yuan by 2027 [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI-driven stocks, particularly Alibaba and Tencent, as the sector is expected to benefit from ongoing advancements in AI capabilities and a potential narrowing of losses in the food delivery market [2][25].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 5.2% in November, while the Nasdaq Internet Index decreased by 3.5% during the same period [11][13] - Individual stock performances varied, with JD Health, Meituan, and NetEase being the top performers in Hong Kong, while Google, Vipshop, and Beike led in the US market [13][14] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the Hang Seng Tech Index slightly rebounded to 23.64x as of December 3, 2025, positioning it at the 34.41% percentile since its inception [16] AI Developments - Google launched Gemini 3 Pro and the new image generation and editing model NANO BANANA PRO, enhancing its AI capabilities [2][20] - OpenAI introduced the GPT-5.1 series model and ChatGPT group chat feature, marking significant advancements in AI interaction [22][24] - Tencent and Alibaba also made strides in AI, with Tencent releasing new models and Alibaba launching the AI Mode on its international platform [32][34] Industry Dynamics - The domestic gaming market showed steady growth in October, with a record number of domestic game approvals in November [43][44] - Payment institutions saw an 8% year-on-year increase in reserve funds in October, indicating a healthy growth trend in the fintech sector [45] - E-commerce platforms reported strong performance during the Double 11 shopping festival, with Tmall and JD achieving record sales [48][49] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on AI-driven companies, particularly Alibaba and Tencent, as they are expected to benefit from AI's impact on advertising and cloud services [3][4] - The anticipated reduction in losses for food delivery services like Alibaba, Meituan, and JD in Q4 presents a favorable investment opportunity [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **server and supporting industry** in the context of the **AI wave** and its implications for growth and investment opportunities in the sector [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The global AI sector is experiencing a new growth phase, with **high demand for advanced computing servers** driven by AI model training and inference needs, leading to explosive growth in high-end general-purpose GPUs and GPGPUs [1][11]. - The **cloud computing era** has introduced distributed architecture, resource pooling, and elastic expansion, which have become significant advantages, breaking resource bottlenecks and lowering user entry barriers [1][8]. - From the second half of 2024, major domestic and international internet giants, including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, are expected to significantly increase capital expenditures, primarily targeting server procurement in the computing power sector [1][12]. - The AI server market is transitioning from a focus on raw computing power to system optimization, emphasizing collaborative innovation between hardware and software to enhance computing capabilities [1][13]. Market Trends and Predictions - IDC predicts that the **AI server hardware market** will exceed **$100 billion** by 2027, with a significant increase in demand for AI chips, which are expected to account for over **70%** of overall product costs [3][22][20]. - The share of China's AI chip market is projected to rise from **15% in 2022 to 30% by 2024**, indicating a growing opportunity for domestic AI chip manufacturers [3][23]. - The demand for **high-bandwidth memory (HBM)** technology is increasing due to its advantages in speed and capacity, becoming the preferred choice for data centers and AI applications [25]. Competitive Landscape - The server industry is experiencing intense competition, with a notable decline in gross and net profit margins, suggesting a potential market consolidation in the future [19][18]. - Future competition in the AI server market is expected to be fierce, with companies like NVIDIA leading the market while domestic players like Huawei aim to capture market share through competitive pricing [18]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are identified in several areas: - Growth in overall shipments due to the AI era - Increased value in AI chips and related components such as storage and PCB [21]. - The potential for domestic replacements in high-end general-purpose CPUs and AI chips [21]. Additional Important Insights - The server industry serves as a barometer for the overall internet industry's health, with its demand reflecting broader economic conditions [4]. - The evolution of server technology has seen a shift from traditional centralized systems to cloud-based solutions, which have significantly improved operational efficiency and reduced costs for users [9][10]. - The development of **computer clusters** is moving towards both horizontal and vertical scaling, with domestic firms pushing for large-scale resource construction [14]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future prospects of the server and AI chip industry, along with investment opportunities and competitive dynamics.

The provided content does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to financial engineering or quantitative analysis. It primarily consists of financial news, stock performance data, and corporate updates. No relevant information for summarizing quantitative models or factors is present.

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance in 2023, with significant inflows into emerging markets, particularly China, as global investors seek higher returns amid a restructuring of the global monetary system [1][4]. Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - As of August 28, major A-share indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, have risen by 14.67%, 20.71%, and 37.99% respectively this year, outperforming major developed market indices [2][3]. - The technology sector has led the gains, with the STAR 50 Index surging by 37.99% and individual stocks like Tianfu Communication and Changxin Bochuang seeing significant increases of 20% and 18.84% respectively [2][3]. Group 2: Emerging Market Attraction - The iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) has seen net inflows exceeding $8.6 billion this year, with a notable acceleration of approximately $5.8 billion since April 2, indicating strong investor interest in emerging markets [3][4]. - Analysts predict that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index could rise by 15% over the next 12 months, outperforming developed markets by 10% [3]. Group 3: Global Monetary System and Investment Outlook - The restructuring of the global monetary system is driving funds towards emerging markets, as active fund managers bet on a weaker dollar [4][5]. - The current low-risk premium for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks suggests potential for revaluation, especially if U.S. Treasury bonds lose their status as a pricing anchor [5][6]. - Investment opportunities in China are expected to arise from consumption upgrades and technological innovations, particularly in artificial intelligence and electric vehicles [6].