转自：证券时报 人民财讯10月12日电，国泰君安证券研报认为，外部冲击造成的资产下跌，是增持中国市场的良机。假 期后中美贸易争端再次令投资人战战兢兢，不少市场分析将当下冲突与4月相比拟，并带动周五恐慌性 抛售（膝跳反应）。实际上，在4月初，由于没有历史经验可比，投资人对"对等关税"所带来的贸易风 险的边界估计是模糊的，对国内经济金融稳定条件和应对准备的认识也有限，造成估值收缩和信心受 挫。国泰海通策略相较共识要更乐观和坚定，与4月冲击不同，当下贸易风险的边界相对清晰，国内金 融稳定条件也更明朗，因此外部冲击是扰动，不会终结趋势。投资更应看到中国"转型牛"内在确定性的 趋势：中国转型加快、无风险收益下沉与资本市场改革。当下中国社会和投资人关于"找资产"的需求持 续井喷，尤其是发展逻辑坚实的优质资产，因此，外部局势的冲突和扰动所造成的资产下跌反而是买 点。地缘冲击和调整难免，但时间不会久，幅度可控，是增持中国的时机。 ...

Group 1 - Vietnam's durian previously generated significant revenue in China, reaching nearly $3 billion, but now faces a market collapse with unsold fruit rotting in the fields due to strict import regulations [1][23] - Australia, which once exported over half of its fruit to China, has seen a 35% drop in exports after criticizing China's stringent import standards, leading to a loss of market share [1][15] - The importance of the Chinese market is underscored by its vast consumer base and high demand for quality imported agricultural products, making it a lucrative opportunity for foreign exporters [5][8] Group 2 - To access the Chinese market, foreign products must meet strict health and safety standards set by Chinese customs, which can be a barrier for those attempting to exploit the market without adhering to regulations [8][10] - Australia's failure to resolve fruit fly issues has hindered its apple exports to China, despite initial approval for imports in 2010, leading to a significant decline in market access [10][15] - In contrast, Vietnam's durian exports have plummeted over 70% due to contamination issues, with sales dropping to $1.3 million, highlighting the severe impact of failing to meet Chinese standards [30][28] Group 3 - Vietnam's agricultural sector is in crisis, with local prices for durians collapsing from $0.80 to $0.10 per pound, resulting in unsold fruit accumulating and causing environmental concerns [32][30] - The Vietnamese government is attempting to regain market access by updating planting codes and improving compliance, but faces stiff competition from countries like Thailand, which have already established strong market positions [34][35] - Domestic production in China, particularly in Hainan, is increasing, with plans to double durian output by 2028, further challenging foreign exporters [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report provides an overview of emerging market funds with a total of US$140 billion allocated to active funds, indicating a cautious approach towards various markets [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant changes in market allocations, with Indonesia and India showing strong allocations of 35 basis points each, while Malaysia shows a notable decrease of 62 basis points [8]. - The performance of various sectors in China is analyzed, with Macau Gaming and China Liquor showing increases of 5.32% and 4.91% respectively, indicating robust growth in these sectors [11]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in sectors such as artificial intelligence and renewable energy, with notable increases in their respective performance metrics [11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Allocation - Indonesia and India are leading with 35 basis points each, while Malaysia has decreased by 62 basis points [8]. - China shows a mixed allocation with a decrease of 265 basis points, indicating a cautious stance towards this market [8]. Sector Performance - Macau Gaming increased by 5.32%, while China Liquor rose by 4.91%, reflecting strong consumer demand [11]. - The China Artificial Intelligence sector shows a growth of 3.36%, with a significant increase of 21.37% over the longer term [11]. - Renewable energy sectors also show positive growth, with a 2.69% increase in performance metrics [11].

Group 1 - A recent Pew Research Center poll indicates a significant decrease in the number of Americans viewing China as an enemy, with those considering China an enemy dropping by 9 percentage points compared to last year [3] - The percentage of Americans who feel "very negative" towards China has also decreased by 10%, marking the first notable cooling in sentiment over the past five years [3] - 52% of Americans believe that tariffs imposed on China are detrimental to the U.S. as a whole, while 53% feel these tariffs negatively impact their personal circumstances, showing a significant shift in public opinion since 2021 [3][4] Group 2 - Attitudes towards China vary significantly across age groups, with 37% of individuals aged 50 to 64 expressing strong negativity towards China, compared to only 21% of those under 30 [4] - The younger generation is more influenced by social media and personal experiences, leading them to form their own opinions about China rather than relying on political narratives [4] Group 3 - The business community, including leaders like NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang, acknowledges the importance of the Chinese market, emphasizing that China is a key player in the global supply chain despite U.S. government restrictions on chip exports [5] - The perception of China as a market of opportunity rather than a threat is gaining traction among the tech and business sectors, countering the narrative pushed by some politicians [5] Group 4 - The interdependence of U.S.-China trade is highlighted, with imports from China helping to control inflation and providing affordable goods for American families [6] - California Governor Gavin Newsom's criticism of federal tariff policies reflects a broader sentiment among Americans who are tired of political manipulation and desire a more practical approach to living [6]

Group 1 - The third Multinational Corporation Leaders Qingdao Summit showcased significant foreign investment confidence, with 186 Fortune Global 500 companies and 290 industry leaders participating, resulting in 99 key foreign projects signed with a total investment of $15.6 billion, a 31.4% increase from the previous summit [1] - Major multinational companies such as AstraZeneca, Lloyds, Mitsui & Co., and ZF Friedrichshafen announced new investment plans during the summit, focusing on sectors like new-generation information technology, new energy materials, high-end equipment, and advanced chemicals [2] - The resilience of the Chinese economy has bolstered foreign investment confidence, with China’s GDP accounting for 18% of the global total and 399 Chinese companies listed in the latest Forbes Global 2000, indicating a rising trend [3] Group 2 - China is enhancing its business environment by streamlining market access, promoting fair competition, and improving trade and investment liberalization, which supports multinational companies in their investment and development in China [4] - The Ministry of Commerce is actively revising the encouraged foreign investment industry catalog and promoting foreign investment in manufacturing and service sectors, particularly in central and northeastern regions [4] - The evolving global supply chain dynamics present new opportunities for multinational companies in China, driven by the country's vast market, complete industrial chain capabilities, and improving business environment [5] Group 3 - Companies like Air Products and Dow are increasing their investments in China, with Air Products emphasizing the importance of China's ongoing opening-up policies for their market expansion [3][5] - Qualcomm is optimistic about the digital economy in China, highlighting the successful deployment of 5G technology as a significant opportunity for collaboration [5][6] - Jaguar Land Rover is supporting global suppliers to establish local parts factories in China, indicating a trend towards localization and deeper collaboration with domestic suppliers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, emphasizes that China is a unique market with unparalleled vitality, innovation, and development momentum, highlighting its significance for technology suppliers [1] Group 1: Market Characteristics - China is described as not just another market, but a unique one with exceptional vitality and innovation capabilities [1] - The development speed of the industry in China is noted to be unmatched globally [1] - The scale of the consumer base in China is extremely large, making it a critical market for technology companies [1] Group 2: Historical Context - Nvidia has been operating in China for 30 years, predating many other high-tech companies entering the market [1] - In the early days, the only notable tech companies in China were Lenovo and Great Wall [1] Group 3: Talent Pool - China is recognized for having one of the largest numbers of computer scientists globally, rivaling only the United States [1] - The presence of outstanding engineers in China contributes to its unique market position [1] Group 4: Strategic Implications - The CEO warns that not participating in the Chinese market could lead to unpredictable and potentially negative long-term consequences for technology suppliers [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the optimistic outlook of foreign investment institutions towards the Chinese market, driven by attractive stock valuations, improving fundamentals, and resilient consumer sentiment, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the market [1][5][8]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) has shown strong performance, closing at 3534.48 points on July 18, marking a year-to-date high, with a 0.5% increase on that day. It has remained above 3500 points for seven consecutive trading days since July 10 [1][3]. - In the week of July 14-18, the A-share indices continued to rise, with the ChiNext Index leading with a 3.17% increase, while the SSE and Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.69% and 2.04%, respectively [3][4]. Trading Activity - Trading activity has been robust, with a peak turnover of 1.71 trillion yuan on July 11, the highest in nearly four months. The average daily turnover for the week was 1.55 trillion yuan, an increase of 500.95 billion yuan from the previous week [4][5]. Foreign Investment Sentiment - Multiple foreign investment institutions express confidence in the Chinese market, citing attractive valuations and improving fundamentals. Wellington Management's Bo Meunier notes that the current trading prices of Chinese stocks are appealing from both relative and historical perspectives [5][7]. - Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their forecasts for key indices, with Goldman Sachs projecting a target of 4600 points for the SSE 300, indicating about a 10% upside potential [7][8]. Sector Performance - The article identifies that the technology sector, particularly in AI, electric vehicles, and robotics, is gaining momentum, with foreign institutions like Fidelity International highlighting the growth potential of Chinese tech stocks [9][10]. Long-term Investment Trends - There is a growing interest from international long-term funds in Chinese assets, driven by early signs of profit recovery and relatively low foreign ownership in the market. This interest is seen as a catalyst for further market growth [11].

Core Insights - The Chinese market is described as vibrant and unique, attracting significant attention from global companies [1][3] - China is the second-largest consumer market globally, with a massive middle-income group, presenting enormous investment and consumption potential [3][4] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China are projected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year, reflecting a steady annual growth rate of 5.5% since 2020 [3][4] Market Dynamics - China's retail sales total approximately 80% of the United States' figures in absolute terms, but exceed the U.S. by 1.6 times when adjusted for purchasing power [4] - The actual foreign investment in China reached $708.73 billion by mid-2025, surpassing the target set for the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][6] - The number of newly established foreign enterprises in China has increased by 25,000 compared to the previous five-year period [4] Competitive Advantages - China's market offers a unique combination of advantages, including a comprehensive industrial system, stable supply chains, and a growing talent pool [7][8] - The innovation ecosystem in China allows for rapid application of new technologies, creating a cycle of demand and supply that benefits multinational companies [8] Political and Economic Stability - China is recognized as one of the safest countries for investment, with a long-term stable political and social environment [9][10] - The country is committed to high-level openness, continuously reducing restrictions on foreign investment and enhancing the business environment [11][12] Global Economic Role - In the context of rising unilateralism and protectionism, China's open market serves as a stabilizing force for the global economy [14][15] - The ongoing expansion of China's openness is seen as a crucial strategy for achieving new developmental milestones [16][17] Future Outlook - The recognition of China's market potential by leaders like NVIDIA's CEO reflects a broader expectation for cooperation and mutual benefits in the global economic landscape [18]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, emphasized the uniqueness and vitality of the Chinese market, describing it as one of the largest markets in the world for the company [1] Group 1 - Nvidia views the Chinese market as extraordinary and vibrant, with significant potential for growth [1] - The presence of strong partners and clients like Alibaba enhances the market's appeal, as they leverage Nvidia's products to create impressive services [1] - Huang's comments highlight the strategic importance of China for Nvidia's business operations and future prospects [1]

Core Insights - The chief economist of BlackRock, Song Yu, noted a significant increase in foreign institutions' attention towards the Chinese market [1] Group 1: Policy Changes - Since the "924" policy last year, there has been a noticeable flexibility in policy that has provided substantial support to the market [1] - Three key changes in policy have been identified: 1. Increased support for cyclical policies 2. Emphasis on the importance of the private economy 3. Greater flexibility in foreign policy [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment Sentiment - There has been a clear shift in foreign sentiment towards the Chinese market, characterized by: 1. A significant reduction in negative sentiment 2. An increase in the level of attention towards the market [1]