Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ☆☆ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ☆ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Corn**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Hogs**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Eggs**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - **Beans 1**: Beans 1 are in a volatile state. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to risk control. The No. 1 Central Document shows that domestic soybeans will continue to promote the improvement of per - unit yield, and policies will be introduced to ensure the planting area and protect planting profits. Recently, the policy side has continued to auction soybeans, increasing the marginal supply in the market, and the transaction price is relatively strong. Short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [1]. - **Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: After the phone call between the leaders of China and the United States last week, Trump unilaterally stated on social media that China would increase the purchase of US soybeans from 1.2 million tons to 2 million tons. US soybeans showed an overall upward trend last week, but domestic soybean meal futures did not follow, with the M2605 contract falling 1.54% weekly. Short - term risks should be noted, and the Dalian soybean meal may continue to oscillate at the bottom. For rapeseed meal, after the preliminary agreement between China and Canada, the export situation of Canadian rapeseed is relatively good, the domestic supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, and the overall demand is weak. Short - term rapeseed meal may also run weakly in an oscillatory manner [2]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil and palm oil futures are in a state of position - reduction and oscillation. Before the holiday, attention should be paid to risk control. The RIN price is relatively strong, and the US biomass diesel policy is positive, with strong fundamental drivers, so US soybean oil is strong. It is expected that the pressure on the supply - demand balance sheet of US soybeans in the 26/27 season will decrease year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the fact that US soybean oil and US soybeans are likely to oscillate strongly. For rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the news of the resumption of normal imports of Canadian rapeseed to China and the appearance of China's further procurement of rapeseed shipping schedules, which may suppress prices [3]. - **Corn**: The overall grain - selling progress in the country has reached 61%. The spot prices of corn in Northeast China and the northern ports are stable with a weak trend. The ex - warehouse prices at Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port have dropped by 5 yuan/ton compared with the weekend. The pre - holiday fundamentals may not change much. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [5]. - **Hogs**: Against the background of the continuous decline of hog spot prices, the near - month 03 contract has squeezed out the premium, and the current futures price has basically converged with the spot price. Recently, the slaughter volume has increased significantly, but the spot price has continued to decline. The industry's average slaughter weight is still high, and the secondary fattening has not been fully slaughtered. There is a need to be vigilant about the supply pressure after the Spring Festival. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected that there will still be a low point in hog prices in the first half of next year [6]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has weakened significantly recently, and most of the increase since New Year's Day has been reversed. The futures premium has been reversed. The chicken - chick replenishment volume in January shows a significant month - on - month improvement but a slight year - on - year decline. There is still upward repair momentum for egg prices in the first half of 2026. After the spot price reaches the low point around the Spring Festival, a long - position strategy for egg futures contracts in the first half of 2026 can be considered [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Beans 1 - The central government promotes the improvement of soybean per - unit yield and area protection, and the policy side auctions soybeans, increasing market supply [1]. - Pay attention to geopolitical and macro - risks and short - term policy and market sentiment [1]. Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal - US soybean purchases are expected to increase, but domestic soybean meal futures did not follow the upward trend of US soybeans, and the M2605 contract fell 1.54% weekly [2]. - Soybean oil mills will be on holiday, and the 2 - month USDA supply - demand report will be released on February 11 [2]. - The export situation of Canadian rapeseed is good, domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, and demand is weak, so rapeseed meal may run weakly [2]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil futures are in a position - reduction and oscillation state, and risk control is needed before the holiday [3]. - The RIN price is strong, and the US biomass diesel policy is positive, so US soybean oil is strong [3]. - Pay attention to the news of Canadian rapeseed imports and China's procurement schedules for rapeseed oil [3]. Corn - The national grain - selling progress is 61%, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable with a weak trend [5]. - The pre - holiday purchase and sale are dull, and the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong corn deep - processing enterprises has increased [5]. - The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and auctions after the Spring Festival [5]. Hogs - The near - month 03 contract premium has been squeezed out, and the futures price has converged with the spot price [6]. - The slaughter volume has increased, but the spot price has declined, and the average slaughter weight is high [6]. - There is supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and hog prices are expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [6]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs has weakened, and the futures premium has been reversed [7]. - The chicken - chick replenishment volume in January has improved month - on - month but declined year - on - year [7]. - There is upward repair momentum for egg prices in the first half of 2026, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the Spring Festival [7].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end due to abundant domestic market funds and the economy in the process of bottoming out [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] - The prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationship, and policies, and their trends vary [1] - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends such as shock, upward, or downward [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound in the short term, and the long - term upward trend is not expected to end due to abundant funds and the economy in the bottom - building process [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper prices have rebounded after a decline due to improved downstream demand and increased market risk appetite [1] - Aluminum prices are fluctuating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and limited industrial - end drivers [1] - Alumina prices are oscillating with a decline in operating capacity and further inventory accumulation [1] - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize after a callback, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term but may be suppressed by high global inventories in the long term. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment [1] - Stainless steel futures are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills, and short - term operations are recommended with risk control [1] - Tin prices are highly volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1] Precious metals and new energy - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - Platinum and lithium may fluctuate strongly in a wide range in the short term due to improved liquidity [1] Industrial products - For industrial silicon, there is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1] - For carbonates, it is in the off - season for new energy vehicles, but the energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a need for a callback after a large increase [1] - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, high production and high inventory suppress price increases, and it is recommended to take corresponding positions [1] - For manganese silicon and ferro - alloy, there is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and supply may be disturbed [1] - For soda ash, it follows glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] - For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take corresponding positions according to market conditions [1] Agricultural products - For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, they are expected to turn to shock due to various factors such as备货 and tariff policies [1] - For cotton, it is in a situation of "supported but without drivers" in the short term, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions [1] - For sugar, there is a clear short - selling consensus, and attention should be paid to the change of funds [1] - For corn, it is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to post - festival factors [1] - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a range - bound shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure of Brazilian discounts [1] - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand [1] - For logs, the disk has upward driving force due to rising prices and expected decline in arrival volume [1] - For live pigs, the production capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy and chemical industry - For crude oil and fuel oil, factors such as OPEC+ suspending production increase, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment affect their trends [1] - For asphalt, there are factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and demand changes [1] - For BR rubber, the short - term disk is expected to have a wide - range shock, and there is an upward expectation in the long term [1] - For PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products, they are affected by factors such as PX market strength, production capacity, and demand [1] - For ethylene, its price has rebounded due to improved supply - demand fundamentals [1] - For methanol, there are factors such as import reduction expectations and downstream negative feedback [1] - For PVC, there are factors such as supply pressure, future expectations, and policy impacts [1] - For LPG, the disk is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to expand [1] - For container shipping on the European line, the freight rate has peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes increasing farmers' income as a key task, with a focus on promoting agricultural development and improving living conditions for farmers, despite facing challenges such as low agricultural prices and employment pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Income Growth Strategies - The average disposable income for farmers is projected to reach 24,456 yuan by 2025, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous year, while the income gap between urban and rural residents continues to narrow [1]. - The government has introduced a policy package aimed at stabilizing agricultural production, boosting industries, expanding employment, and activating resources to address new challenges in income growth [1]. Group 2: Industrial Development - County economies are identified as crucial for fostering industries that benefit farmers, with a need to develop unique local products and avoid homogenization in rural industries [2]. - The establishment of a marketing service system for agricultural products is essential, leveraging the growth of rural e-commerce and live-streaming sales to enhance market access for farmers [2]. Group 3: Labor Income Stability - Wage income constitutes a significant portion of farmers' earnings, but challenges such as job stability and skill deficiencies hinder income growth [2]. - Strategies to enhance labor income include targeted training for migrant workers, improving job security, and supporting returnee entrepreneurs to create local employment opportunities [2]. Group 4: Resource Utilization - Issues such as abandoned land and idle housing in rural areas limit the potential for farmers' property income growth [3]. - Encouraging farmers to invest land use rights in cooperatives and repurposing idle houses for commercial use can broaden income channels, while ensuring legal protections for farmers' property rights [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn, Egg [1] - **Bearish**: Live Pig [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product market is in a state of shock, with various factors such as policies, international trade, and macro - risks influencing the market trends of different varieties [2][3][4] - Different agricultural product varieties face different supply - demand situations and price trends, and investors should pay attention to short - term risks and market changes [3][4][8] 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybean - CBOT soybeans are strong due to improved export expectations. The domestic policy continues to promote soybean yield and protect planting profits. Policy - side soybean auctions increase marginal supply, with a strong transaction price [2] - Short - term focus should be on policies and market sentiment, as well as the impact of macro - events on the overall commodity market [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Reuters predicts that the yields of Brazil and Argentina in the 2025/26 soybean season will change compared to January data, and the US soybean ending stocks will decrease [3] - After the Sino - US leaders' phone call, there are uncertainties in soybean purchase quantity. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may continue to bottom - out and fluctuate [3] - The USDA February supply - demand report will be released on February 11, 2026, at 1:00 am Beijing time [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Gold and silver volatility increases, domestic soybean oil reduces positions and prices fluctuate downward. Although CBOT soybeans are strong, domestic soybean oil is weaker than the US market [4] - The US biodiesel policy is positive, the fundamentals of US soybean oil are strong, and there is a high probability that CBOT soybeans and US soybean oil will fluctuate strongly [4] - The impact of the 2026 macro - environment cannot be ignored, and risks should be controlled [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market fluctuates. Oilseed import expectations improve, and Sino - US, Sino - Canada, and US - Canada economic and trade relations are important for rapeseed trade [6] - The US biofuel policy ensures the stability of Canadian rapeseed oil exports. The rapeseed oil trading on the CGS Warehouse Network is fully completed, and the incremental supply of Australian seeds eases market concerns [6] - The short - term trend of rapeseed products is mainly fluctuating [6] Corn - The spot price of corn in Northeast China and North Ports is stable with a slight upward trend, and some deep - processing enterprises in Shandong have lowered their purchase prices [7] - After the Spring Festival, the ground - stored grain may be concentrated on the market, and the short - term Dalian corn futures will fluctuate [7] Live Pig - The near - month 03 contract of live pigs continues to fall to a new low, other contracts decline slightly, and funds reduce positions. Spot prices show signs of stabilization [8] - The current industry's出栏 weight is high, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens still has room to decline. The situation around the 2026 Spring Festival needs further observation [8] - In the medium - to - long term, due to the increasing出栏 pressure, it is expected that the pig price will reach a new low in the first half of next year [8] Egg - The decline of egg futures slows down, funds reduce positions and shift from near - month to far - month contracts. Spot prices in some provinces are stable, while in others they continue to fall [9] - The chicken - chick replenishment volume in January has improved month - on - month but still declined year - on - year, indicating that the low replenishment sentiment has been repaired but is still lower than the high level in the first half of 2025 [9] - There is upward momentum for egg prices in the first half of 2026. After the spot price reaches the low point around the Spring Festival, a long - position strategy for egg futures contracts in the first half of 2026 can be considered [9]

Core Viewpoint - The central document outlines a clear roadmap for the "Three Rural Issues" (agriculture, rural areas, and farmers) work, emphasizing the modernization of agriculture, improvement of rural living conditions, and enhancement of farmers' livelihoods as key objectives for the new journey ahead [1][2]. Group 1: Agricultural Modernization - The document sets a target to stabilize grain production at approximately 1.4 trillion jin (around 700 million tons) and emphasizes the implementation of a new round of actions to increase grain production capacity by 100 billion jin [2][3]. - It highlights the importance of maintaining the red line of arable land and promoting the integration of high-quality seeds, farming techniques, and machinery to enhance agricultural productivity [2]. Group 2: Farmers' Income Growth - A dedicated section in the document focuses on actively promoting stable income growth for farmers, emphasizing the development of local industries to create job opportunities [3]. - It calls for the establishment of a grain income guarantee mechanism and the promotion of deep processing of agricultural products to increase their added value [3]. Group 3: Rural Development and Quality of Life - The document introduces new requirements for building beautiful and livable rural areas, aiming to transform villages into popular tourist destinations and entrepreneurial hubs for young people [4]. - It stresses the need for tailored policies that respect farmers' wishes and avoid a one-size-fits-all approach, ensuring that rural development addresses specific local needs [4].

Core Viewpoint - The central government has prioritized measures to increase farmers' income in response to the current challenges of low agricultural product prices and employment pressures for migrant workers [1] Group 1: Measures to Stabilize Farmers' Income - The government aims to stabilize farmers' income from farming by utilizing policies related to pricing, subsidies, and insurance to ensure a reliable income for grain producers [1] - Key policies include the implementation of minimum purchase prices and target prices, as well as subsidies for land fertility protection and crop production [1] - Insurance mechanisms will be strengthened for key crops to mitigate risks and enhance farmers' financial security [1] Group 2: Development of County-Level Industries - The government emphasizes the importance of developing county-level industries as a means to boost farmers' income and promote rural revitalization [2] - Support will be provided for local economies to develop unique industries, avoiding homogenization and competition [2] - New business models such as rural e-commerce and live-streaming sales will be encouraged to enhance farmers' income [2] Group 3: Employment Support for Migrant Workers - The government plans to enhance employment support for migrant workers, focusing on job stability and skills training [3] - Policies will be implemented to support key industries in maintaining and expanding job opportunities for migrant workers [3] - Measures will be taken to ensure timely payment of wages, especially during peak periods like the Spring Festival [3] Group 4: Utilization of Rural Idle Resources - The government aims to revitalize rural collective economies by clarifying property rights and improving income distribution mechanisms [4] - There will be efforts to utilize idle land and housing effectively, while ensuring that collective land is not misused for commercial housing [4] - Regulations will be enforced to manage rural housing rentals and prevent illegal purchases of rural land [4]

Core Insights - The "Three Rural Issues" work has made progress despite significant natural disasters, achieving the goals set for the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - The central document for this year emphasizes comprehensive rural revitalization and draws on the "Ten Thousand Projects" experience for guidance [1][2] Group 1: Key Achievements - Agricultural comprehensive production capacity has reached a new level [1] - The results of poverty alleviation have been continuously consolidated and expanded [1] - The living standards of farmers have significantly improved [1] - Comprehensive rural revitalization has achieved notable results [1] Group 2: Major Tasks and Support - The central document outlines four key tasks: enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing regular precise assistance, promoting stable income growth for farmers, and advancing the construction of livable and workable beautiful villages [2] - Two major support mechanisms include strengthening institutional innovation and enhancing the Party's comprehensive leadership over "Three Rural Issues" [2] - The document combines current and long-term perspectives, addressing both annual tasks and strategic requirements for the 15th Five-Year Plan and beyond [2]

Group 1 - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 was released on February 3, marking the first document of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The document contains new signals that may impact various aspects of life and industry [1] - Continuous attention will be given to the implications of this document by financial media [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes the importance of promoting stable income growth for farmers, addressing current challenges such as low agricultural product prices and employment pressures for migrant workers [2][6][7]. Group 1: Income Growth Measures - The 2026 Central Document proposes a comprehensive set of measures to enhance farmers' income, focusing on stabilizing agricultural earnings through effective policies [7][8]. - Key strategies include utilizing price support, subsidies, and insurance to ensure farmers' income from grain production is safeguarded, preventing losses due to low prices [9][10]. - The government plans to implement various subsidies, including those for farmland quality protection and specific crop production, to provide direct financial support to farmers [12][13]. Group 2: Development of Local Industries - Strengthening local industries is identified as a crucial pathway for rural revitalization and farmers' income growth, with an emphasis on leveraging local resources to develop unique county economies [16][17]. - The government aims to prevent homogenization and competition within local industries by promoting diversified and integrated development [18][19]. - Policies will be established to support new business models such as rural e-commerce and live-streaming sales, ensuring they contribute effectively to farmers' income [20][21]. Group 3: Employment Support for Migrant Workers - The government recognizes that wage income is a significant part of farmers' overall income and plans to enhance support for migrant workers through job stability measures and vocational training [23][24]. - Initiatives will be taken to ensure timely payment of wages, especially during peak periods like the Spring Festival, and to combat wage arrears [26][27]. - For returning workers, various employment opportunities will be created through local job support and entrepreneurship initiatives [25][29]. Group 4: Utilization of Rural Resources - The government aims to revitalize idle rural resources and assets by developing new forms of collective rural economy and clarifying property rights [30][31]. - There will be a focus on legally activating idle land and housing, allowing for better financial returns for farmers while ensuring compliance with regulations [32][34]. - Measures will be taken to prevent illegal transactions related to rural land and housing, ensuring the protection of farmers' rights [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE