| | | | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月09日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | なな☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ☆☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 菜油 | ☆☆☆ | | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | | 【豆一】 豆一震荡。假期前注意控制风险。中央一号文件显示国产大豆继续推进单产提升，面积方面出台保障政策，种 植利润多项措施保护。近期政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强,近期地缘与宏观风险事 件比较集中,且方向尚不明确,需要关注宏观对整体商品的引导。短期持续关注政策和市场情绪的表现。 【豆粕&菜粕】 上周中美两国元首电话沟通后,特朗普单方面在社交媒体表示我国会购买更 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end due to abundant domestic market funds and the economy in the process of bottoming out [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] - The prices of copper, aluminum, nickel, and other non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationship, and policies, and their trends vary [1] - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, seasonality, and policies, showing different trends such as shock, upward, or downward [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to consolidate after a shrinking rebound in the short term, and the long - term upward trend is not expected to end due to abundant funds and the economy in the bottom - building process [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper prices have rebounded after a decline due to improved downstream demand and increased market risk appetite [1] - Aluminum prices are fluctuating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and limited industrial - end drivers [1] - Alumina prices are oscillating with a decline in operating capacity and further inventory accumulation [1] - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize after a callback, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Nickel prices have rebounded in the short term but may be suppressed by high global inventories in the long term. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment [1] - Stainless steel futures are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills, and short - term operations are recommended with risk control [1] - Tin prices are highly volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1] Precious metals and new energy - Precious metals are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term due to improved liquidity, but market funds may be cautious before the Spring Festival [1] - Platinum and lithium may fluctuate strongly in a wide range in the short term due to improved liquidity [1] Industrial products - For industrial silicon, there is production increase in the northwest and decrease in the southwest, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon decreased in December [1] - For carbonates, it is in the off - season for new energy vehicles, but the energy - storage demand is strong, and there is a need for a callback after a large increase [1] - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, high production and high inventory suppress price increases, and it is recommended to take corresponding positions [1] - For manganese silicon and ferro - alloy, there is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and supply may be disturbed [1] - For soda ash, it follows glass, and the medium - term supply - demand is more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] - For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to take corresponding positions according to market conditions [1] Agricultural products - For palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, they are expected to turn to shock due to various factors such as备货 and tariff policies [1] - For cotton, it is in a situation of "supported but without drivers" in the short term, and attention should be paid to relevant policies and market conditions [1] - For sugar, there is a clear short - selling consensus, and attention should be paid to the change of funds [1] - For corn, it is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to post - festival factors [1] - For soybean meal, it is expected to have a range - bound shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure of Brazilian discounts [1] - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand [1] - For logs, the disk has upward driving force due to rising prices and expected decline in arrival volume [1] - For live pigs, the production capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy and chemical industry - For crude oil and fuel oil, factors such as OPEC+ suspending production increase, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment affect their trends [1] - For asphalt, there are factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and demand changes [1] - For BR rubber, the short - term disk is expected to have a wide - range shock, and there is an upward expectation in the long term [1] - For PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products, they are affected by factors such as PX market strength, production capacity, and demand [1] - For ethylene, its price has rebounded due to improved supply - demand fundamentals [1] - For methanol, there are factors such as import reduction expectations and downstream negative feedback [1] - For PVC, there are factors such as supply pressure, future expectations, and policy impacts [1] - For LPG, the disk is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to expand [1] - For container shipping on the European line, the freight rate has peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes increasing farmers' income as a key task, with a focus on promoting agricultural development and improving living conditions for farmers, despite facing challenges such as low agricultural prices and employment pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Income Growth Strategies - The average disposable income for farmers is projected to reach 24,456 yuan by 2025, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous year, while the income gap between urban and rural residents continues to narrow [1]. - The government has introduced a policy package aimed at stabilizing agricultural production, boosting industries, expanding employment, and activating resources to address new challenges in income growth [1]. Group 2: Industrial Development - County economies are identified as crucial for fostering industries that benefit farmers, with a need to develop unique local products and avoid homogenization in rural industries [2]. - The establishment of a marketing service system for agricultural products is essential, leveraging the growth of rural e-commerce and live-streaming sales to enhance market access for farmers [2]. Group 3: Labor Income Stability - Wage income constitutes a significant portion of farmers' earnings, but challenges such as job stability and skill deficiencies hinder income growth [2]. - Strategies to enhance labor income include targeted training for migrant workers, improving job security, and supporting returnee entrepreneurs to create local employment opportunities [2]. Group 4: Resource Utilization - Issues such as abandoned land and idle housing in rural areas limit the potential for farmers' property income growth [3]. - Encouraging farmers to invest land use rights in cooperatives and repurposing idle houses for commercial use can broaden income channels, while ensuring legal protections for farmers' property rights [3].

| | | | V V > | | 2026年02月06日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標 潟 海 | な女女 | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | な☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | な女女 | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一震荡。CBOT大豆表现强势,因对美豆出口预期转好。中央一号文件显示国产大豆继续推进单产提升，面积 方面出台保障政策,种植利润多项措施保护。本周政策端继续拍卖大豆,市场边际供应增加,成交价格偏强, 成交均价4298元/吨、溢价210- ...

"三农"蓝图，充满希望，底色鲜亮。首先映入眼帘的底色，是端得更稳的"中国饭碗"。"一号文件"将粮 食产量稳定在1.4万亿斤左右设为明确目标，并提出加力实施新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升行动。这意味 着，一方面要严守耕地红线，加快促进良田良种良机良法集成增效，推进粮油作物大面积提单产，更好 藏粮于地、藏粮于技；另一方面要促进农业产业增效，让种粮农民更有赚头。放眼各地，农业生产毫不 放松，从黑土地到江南水乡，高标准农田建设与良种、良机、良法集成推广的实践图景，正是对粮食增 产最坚实的回应。 春启东方，农兴华夏。广袤田野间，孕育着新的生机。党的十八大以来连续第14个指导"三农"工作的中 央一号文件如期而至，为新征程上的"三农"工作划定清晰路线图。 一年一度，共赴"春天的约定"。在"十五五"开局之年的关键节点，中央一号文件明确提出要把农业建成 现代化大产业、使农村基本具备现代生活条件、让农民生活更加富裕美好的总体目标。奔赴"三农"新目 标，为推进中国式现代化提供基础支撑，不仅"必答"，而且必须要答好。六个部分，27条，干货满满， 对提升农业综合生产能力和质量效益、实施常态化精准帮扶、积极促进农民稳定增收、因地制宜推进宜 居 ...

记者宋承翰发自北京 2月4日，国新办召开新闻发布会，介绍今年中央一号文件情况。在谈及农民增收 问题时，中央财办副主任、中央农办副主任祝卫东称，当前部分农产品价格较为低迷，农民工稳岗就业 压力增大，农民增收形势不容乐观。今年中央一号文件针对这一新形势，把促进农民增收摆在重要位 置，提出了一揽子增收措施，打出一套政策"组合拳"。 其称之的政策"组合拳"包含四类： 三是促进农民工稳岗就业。工资性收入占农民收入的大头，要统筹做好外出务工服务保障和返乡就业创 业扶持。对于外出务工的，要落实农民工稳岗就业支持政策，支持重点行业企业稳定和拓展农民工就业 岗位，同时实施大规模职业技能培训，促进培训项目与岗位需求精准匹配。对于返乡回乡的，要通过以 工代赈、创业扶持等措施，多措并举开辟就近就地就业门路。需要注意的是，春节前是农民工工资结算 的高峰期，要着力做好保障农民工工资支付工作，加大欠薪整治力度，依法坚决打击恶意欠薪行为。春 节后要着重加强有组织劳务输出对接，深入开展就业服务和就业援助，多措并举保障务工人员返岗复 工。 四是盘活用好农村闲置资源资产。要因地制宜发展壮大新型农村集体经济，用好农村集体产权制度改革 成果，加快构建 ...

新华财经北京2月4日电（记者王小璐） 中央财经委员会办公室分管日常工作的副主任、中央农村工作 领导小组办公室主任韩文秀4日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，回顾过去一年，"三农"工作克服较为严重 的自然灾害等不利因素影响，稳中有进、稳中向好，圆满实现了"十四五"收官。 具体来看，一是农业综合生产能力迈上新台阶、二是脱贫攻坚成果持续巩固拓展、三是农民生活水平显 著提高、四是乡村全面振兴取得明显成效。 韩文秀表示，中央一号文件坚持立足当前和着眼长远相结合，既突出年度性，部署2026年必须完成的任 务，又明确"十五五"乃至更长一个时期的战略性、方向性要求。坚持目标导向和问题导向相结合，围绕 解决农民群众急难愁盼，集成推出了务实管用、有含金量的政策举措，着力办好一批民生实事。 （文章来源：新华财经） 韩文秀表示，今年中央一号文件，以推进乡村全面振兴为总抓手，以学习运用"千万工程"经验为引领， 对当前及今后一个时期"三农"工作作出了系统部署。 "文件坚持稳中求进工作总基调，在保持'三农'工作布局总体稳定的基础上，针对新形势新要求，明确 了今年'三农'领域的重大任务和重点工作。"韩文秀指出，今年中央一号文件主要内容可以概括为"四 ...

融媒聚焦 解读 权威发布 聚焦丨2026年中央一号文件 2026年中央一号文件2月3日发布，这也是"十五五"首个中央一号文件。今年的中央一号文件有哪些"新 信号"？又将如何影响你我生活？21财经客户端持续关注>> ...

农民增收渠道、 强化相关政策方 面会有哪些新举 措？中央财办副 主任、中央农办 副主任祝卫东在 2月4日上午举行 的新闻发布会上 回应了社会关 切。 如何促进农民增 收？中央农办： 真金白银支持， 让农民有活干、 有钱赚_南方+_ 南方plus ▲点击查看"聚焦2026中央一号文件"系列报道 日前公布的2026 年中央一号文件 提出，要积极促 进农民稳定增 收。当前我国农 民增收形势如 何？今年在拓宽 祝卫东指出，近 年来，农民收入 稳定增长，城乡 居民收入倍差持 续缩小，但当前 部分农产品价格 较为低迷，农民 工稳岗就业压力 增大，农民增收 形势不容乐观。 今年中央一号文 件针对这一新形 势，把促进农民 增收摆在重要位 置，提出了一揽 子增收措施，打 出一套政策"组 合拳" 。 一是稳定农民务 农种粮收益。重 点是统筹用好价 格、补贴、保险 等政策，健全种 粮农民收益保障 机制，防止谷贱 伤农。价格方 面，用好最低收 购价、目标价格 等政策工具，统 筹做好市场化收 购和政策性收 储，促进粮食等 重要农产品价格 保持在合理水 平。补贴方面， 稳定实施耕地地 力保护补贴、玉 米大豆生产者补 贴和稻谷补贴政 策， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE