登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -15% -10% -4% 1% 6% 12% 17% 22% 2024.06 2024.10 2025.02 2025.06 上证指数 深证成指 分析师：张刚 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 06 月 06 日 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,384.10 | 0.23 | | 深证成指 | | 10,203.50 | 0.58 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 3,877.56 | 0.23 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 3,698.59 | 0.21 | | 中证 | 500 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the port shipping industry, particularly the impact of US-China tariff adjustments on export volumes and market dynamics [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on Export Volumes** - Initial US-China tariff increases led to a significant reduction in container export volumes to the US, with declines ranging from 30% to 50% [1][4]. - Despite this, overall financial export amounts and port throughput remained positive due to preemptive shipping activities [1][4]. 2. **Regional Differences in Impact** - Northern ports were more adversely affected than southern ports, primarily due to differences in export product structures, with northern exports being more reliant on low-value raw materials [1][7][8]. 3. **Response of Shipping Companies** - Shipping companies adjusted capacity by skipping ports and reducing service frequency to maintain load factors and freight rates, with some capacity redirected to European and South American routes [1][9][13]. 4. **Market Reactions to Tariff Adjustments** - Following tariff reductions, there was a surge in inquiries and bookings from US importers, indicating a positive outlook for export volumes [1][12][14]. - By the end of May, US shipping capacity was nearly fully booked, supporting an increase in freight rates [1][14]. 5. **Future Market Outlook** - The sustainability of the current shipping market conditions will depend on tariff policy expectations in the next 90 days, influencing whether companies will continue large-scale production and exports [2][15][17]. - The upcoming holiday season is traditionally a peak period, and companies are preparing for increased orders and production [15]. 6. **Transshipment Trade Performance** - Transshipment trade remained stable, with no significant increase in shipping rates on Southeast Asian routes, as companies were cautious due to origin policy risks [1][10]. 7. **Long-term Industry Trends** - Tariff tensions may drive growth in Southeast Asian markets, as companies adapt their overseas production capabilities to mitigate impacts [16]. - The structural growth trend in container shipping markets is expected to continue, driven by shifts in production and supply chains [16]. Other Important Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of monitoring policy changes and market indicators to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on the shipping industry [6][17]. - The differences in export product structures between northern and southern ports were emphasized as a critical factor in understanding regional impacts [7][8]. - The call also noted that large retailers operating under FOB terms showed resilience, continuing exports despite tariff increases [17].

摘要 • 中美关税调整反映了双方对高关税不可持续性的共识，美国需缓解供给冲 击以控制通胀，并通过延长关税豁免期来补充库存，为谈判争取时间。未 来需关注主要转口市场是否受美国出口管制影响，以及美国是否会继续利 用出口管制和转口限制。 • 对等关税出台后，比特币、黄金、欧元区及日本资产表现突出，印度市场 作为中国资产的替代也表现优异。近期关税缓释后，这些资产仍保持一定 优势，但黄金和美元近期处于震荡状态，不宜过度短期化长逻辑用于交易， 建议采用定投策略。 • 关税可能拖累全球增长，导致大宗商品价格波动，并影响美元信用和市场 信心。在美股上市的中概股公司首当其冲，反映了市场对对等关税问题的 担忧。美国经济滞胀风险被延后但未消除，高关税带来的供给通胀压力使 得美联储无法降息，加剧了衰退压力。 • 美联储降息预期因高关税受到抑制，若关税下降，降息概率将增加，但可 能是小幅度降息。目前美国通胀水平约为 4%，CPI 在 3.5%到 4%之间， 这使得美联储有一定空间进行降息。美股盈利受拖累程度有所降低，头部 科技公司资本开支提供支撑，纳斯达克估值已修复。 Q&A 中美关税"降级"的资产含义 20250519 中美关税降级 ...

Market Overview - Major indices experienced fluctuations and closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.36%, while the North Exchange 50 Index rose by 1.32% [1] - The port and shipping sector continued to show strength, with Nanjing Port and Ningbo Maritime both achieving five consecutive trading limits. Following the adjustment of tariffs between China and the U.S., shipping demand surged, with average booking volumes for container transport soaring by 277% [1] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed robust performance, with several stocks such as Konggang Co., Ltd. and Shahe Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit. The National Bureau of Statistics indicated that policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have begun to show effects, with transaction prices stabilizing and increased activity in some first- and second-tier cities [1][4] - A total of 32 stocks in the ST sector also reached their daily limit, indicating strong market interest [4] Mergers and Acquisitions - The mergers and acquisitions concept saw significant gains, with stocks like Guangzhi Technology and Xiamen Port reaching their daily limits. This surge was influenced by the recent announcement from the China Securities Regulatory Commission regarding amendments to the management measures for major asset restructuring of listed companies [2][5] Individual Stock Performance - Among the tradable A-shares, over 2900 stocks rose while 2305 fell, with 93 stocks hitting the daily limit and only one stock hitting the lower limit. New listings included N Taili, which opened with a 163.93% increase, and N Weigao, which opened with an 88.64% increase [3] - The average market capitalization of stocks that hit the daily limit was 5.6 billion, with 42 stocks having a market capitalization below 3 billion [6] Sector Highlights - The real estate, power equipment, and construction decoration sectors had the highest number of stocks hitting the daily limit, with 11, 8, and 6 stocks respectively [3] - The port and shipping sector, along with the real estate sector, showed significant activity, with multiple stocks achieving consecutive trading limits [1][4]

东南亚股市方面，印尼雅加达综合指数（JKSE）领涨，该指数周涨4.01%，报7106.53点；新加坡海峡 指数周涨0.56%，报3897.87点；马来西亚吉隆坡综合指数周涨1.63%，报1571.75点；菲律宾马尼拉指数 周涨0.11%，报6465.53点；泰国SET指数周跌1.25%，报1195.77点；越南胡志明指数周涨2.89%，报 1301.39点。 亚太其他地区股指同样上涨。日经225指数周涨0.67%或250.39点，报37753.72点；韩国KOSPI指数周涨 1.92%，报2626.87点；澳大利亚S&P/ASX200指数周涨1.37%，报8343.7点。 21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 广州报道 中美经贸会谈进展推动亚太区股市出现多日高涨行情后。上周市场略显疲态，但多数亚太股市仍录得涨 幅。 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际金融研究室助理研究员倪淑慧向21世纪经济报道记者表示， 中美大幅降低双边关税水平，缓解了市场紧张情绪，提振市场信心，为上周亚太股市交易注入动力；亚 太区域对贸易依赖度较高，中美调整关税措施，推动多数亚太股市应声走强。其次，美国4月消费者价 格指数同比涨幅2.3%，低于预 ...

中美关税政策最新调整后，国内不少物流货运代理企业纷纷被美国客户催单，美国线航运出现"抢舱 热"。企业负责人告诉记者，美国客户那边已经出现了货物短缺的情况，正不断催促企业赶最近的船期 发货。他们正忙着整理出口货物的放舱单，发往洛杉矶、纽约、芝加哥等港口的单据汇成厚厚的一摞。 全球捷运(上海)供应链科技有限公司广东分公司副总经理付胜英：特别是从5月12日下午开始，我们的 货量增加了四成，到6月份货量应该至少是现在的2倍。(央视新闻) ...

Core Viewpoints - Recent progress in China-US economic talks may lead to an upward adjustment in China's GDP growth expectations for Q2 due to a rebound in exports and significant tariff reductions [5][3] - The US has agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 basis points within 90 days, which exceeds previous expectations, but this only affects 6.5% of US imports [7][3] Group 1: China Economic Insights - The reduction in tariffs and a potential agreement on the fentanyl issue may stimulate a wave of suppressed exports, positively impacting China's GDP growth in Q2 [5][6] - The possibility of adjusting the 20% tariffs imposed on China due to the fentanyl issue exists, while the remaining 10% tariffs may be retained long-term [5][6] Group 2: US Economic Insights - The GDP growth forecast for the US has been moderately adjusted upward, with Q4 GDP growth now expected to increase by 0.2 percentage points to 0.8% [7][3] - The cumulative tariff rate on China will decrease to 30%, while China's tariff rate on the US will drop to 10%, indicating ongoing targeted tariff measures in specific industries [7][3] - The slow progress of trade agreements between the US and other countries suggests that the 10% tariff may become a challenging threshold to overcome [7][3]

林剑表示，中美双方在日内瓦的经贸会谈达成多项积极共识，同意大幅降低双边关税水平。美方承诺 取消91%关税，暂停实施24%的"对等关税"；相应地，中方也取消91%反制关税，暂停实施24%的反 制关税。双方各自保留10%的关税。美方以芬太尼为借口对中国无理加征两轮关税，中方均第一时间 采取包括关税和非关税措施在内的反制举措，坚定维护自身正当权益。 这些反制措施仍然有效。 据央视新闻，5月14日，外交部发言人林剑主持例行记者会。总台央视记者提问，据报道，中美在日 内瓦举行经贸高层会谈后，中方将在初始90天内将对美商品关税从125%降至10%，同时美方将对华 商品关税降至30%，其中包括以芬太尼为由对华加征20%的关税。中方对此有何评论? ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement of the US-China Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement indicates a commitment to reduce tariffs imposed since April 2025 to 10%, with a 90-day suspension on the remaining 24% tariffs, although tariffs on certain Chinese imports from the US remain unchanged [1][2]. Tariff Changes and Impact - The tariffs on US imports, particularly on coal, LNG, crude oil, and agricultural products, will continue to apply at rates of 10%-15% for China [1]. - As of 2024, China imported approximately 60 billion yuan worth of US crude oil and LNG, with US crude oil accounting for only 1.74% of China's total crude oil imports [2]. - The imposition of tariffs has led to a significant reduction in China's imports of US energy products, with a year-on-year decline of 54%, 76%, and 70% in the first three months of 2024 for crude oil [2]. Market Dynamics - The attractiveness of US crude oil has diminished for Chinese buyers due to the 20% tariff, as global price differences among various crude oil types are minimal [2]. - Chinese buyers are currently in a wait-and-see mode regarding US LNG imports, despite the competitive pricing of US natural gas [3][4]. - The anticipated increase in pipeline gas imports from Russia and the acceleration of domestic gas storage and LNG receiving station construction in China are expected to fill the gap left by reduced US imports [4]. Economic Outlook - The mutual tariff reduction between the US and China is expected to positively impact the international oil and gas market, improving global economic prospects and market sentiment [4].

关税阶段性落地，机械出口链如何表现？20250513 摘要 • 中美关税调整后，机械设备总税率仍较高，但部分企业如浙江鼎力通过申 诉和成本控制，实际税率上涨幅度较小，预计能维持利润率，且客户需求 稳定。 • 凌霄泵业和春风等其他中国产能企业，可将新增关税顺价传导至下游市场， 保持成本优势，纺织品、轻工玩具等低附加值产品也可适度涨价规避关税 影响。 • 卡特彼勒认为北美需求仍有支撑，订单堆积导致交货期延长，浙江鼎力有 望继续在美国市场突破，实现收入和利润增长。 • 杰克股份受益于海外分散产能，全球贸易关税谈判带来的市场信心提升， 使其海外产能有效，并能向下游传导价格，增强盈利能力。 • 巨星、永达和杰昌等公司，以及叉车和工程机械类公司，有望受益于美国 市场需求改善和国内需求稳定，盈利空间扩大。 • 全球关税环境对出口链公司的影响主要体现在预期修正，平均关税若仅为 10%，对消费者购买力影响有限，出口链公司需求扰动或低于预期。 • 中美不脱钩对制造业整体国内需求带来预期修正，偏消费类产品订单可能 回升，推动行业企稳向上，龙头企业有望获得超额收益。 卡特彼勒认为今年北美需求仍然有支撑，但并不是因为新签订单不下滑，而 ...