在挫折中萃取交易真经 转型期的阵痛至今难忘。从高胜率低盈亏比的套利转向低胜率高盈亏比的趋势交易，他遭遇连续亏损的 至暗时刻。"从总体小赚的套利交易，到趋势交易的连续亏损，这点当时是我面临的比较大的挫折。"他 说。但他没有放弃，而是用科学方法破局——反复验证策略逻辑，进行大量历史回测，设定严格的风控 底线。这段经历重塑了他的风险观：赚钱是为了更好地生活和工作，不能因为想赚钱（有可能还没赚到 钱），就把生活和工作搞砸了。如今的他，始终将风控置于首位。 昵称为"玲珑双子"的交易者用多年打磨的趋势跟踪策略，在第十九届全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛中 斩获长期稳定盈利组第八名。这份成绩背后，是穿越牛熊的定力，是对交易本质的深刻认知，更是普通 人在期海沉浮中的独特生存之道。近日，期货日报记者独家专访了这位低调的高手，揭开他稳定盈利的 秘密。 成功下的冷静：氧化铝一战定乾坤 谈及获胜关键，他将功劳归于"策略的一致性"。"获奖的关键因素，主要在于坚持自己的策略。没有固 定的策略，即使取得成功，也是偶然的，不会长久。"回顾赛程，他开赛之初氧化铝的交易成为决定性 一笔。当时他坚持趋势交易的核心逻辑，等待趋势确立后的盘整或小幅反弹， ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of He Yue, a participant in the national futures trading competition, emphasizing his growth and learning experiences in trading [1][4]. Group 1: Trading Experience and Strategy - He Yue achieved fifth place in the industry group of the national futures trading competition, showcasing his trading skills [1]. - Initially, He participated in the competition to assess his trading capabilities against others, acknowledging the increasing competition and the need for self-improvement [2]. - He faced significant challenges, including a major drawdown in April, which reinforced the importance of hedging in trading, particularly with options [2][3]. - His trading strategy is based on macroeconomic policy judgments, with a focus on index futures and options, predicting a long-term bull market following government policy changes [2]. Group 2: Trading Philosophy and Risk Management - He emphasizes the balance between "extremes" and "hedging" in trading, which has allowed him to seize opportunities while protecting profits [3]. - His trading journey began in 2008, evolving from initial confidence to a period of self-reflection and learning from past mistakes [4][5]. - He advocates for a disciplined approach to trading, focusing on understanding market policies and personal trading psychology [6]. - He maintains strict risk management rules, including keeping positions below 30% and using only 2% to 5% of capital for short-term trades to minimize anxiety [6].

Core Insights - The interview highlights the success of He Ran, who won the championship in the hedging arbitrage group of the national futures (options) trading competition, emphasizing the importance of adhering to one's trading strategy despite market fluctuations [1] Group 1: Trading Philosophy and Strategy - He Ran attributes his success to the principle of "sticking to one's strategy," which helped him navigate through significant profit drawdowns and periods without gains during the competition [1] - His trading approach focuses on swing trading and arbitrage, primarily utilizing cross-commodity arbitrage in stock index futures and hedging arbitrage in options, capitalizing on the considerable profit potential in a volatile market [1] Group 2: Risk Management and Emotional Control - He Ran has established clear trading principles, using K-line breakthroughs as critical references for opening positions, stop-loss, and take-profit decisions [2] - He emphasizes strict adherence to stop-loss rules, such as a maximum loss of 0.5% per trade and a daily drawdown limit of 3%, which he believes is essential for protecting capital [2] - He Ran acknowledges the impact of emotions like anxiety, greed, and fear on trading decisions and advises distancing oneself from the market during negative emotional states to avoid larger losses [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Advice for New Traders - He Ran views his recent competition success as a new starting point, focusing on strategy optimization rather than short-term rankings, aiming for long-term stable profits [2] - He offers practical advice for novice traders, recommending starting with simulated trading to achieve stable profits before transitioning to real trading with small capital, while prioritizing capital protection [2]

本系列影片旨在幫助普通投資者學會看圖，學會用事實和數據來作為交易依據，而不是憑感覺。希望我的圖形分析框架對你有益。In this series, I’ll show you how to trade by reading charts and make decisions based on real data instead of gut feelings. I hope my chart analysis framework can help you in your investing journey. ————— 圖形分析指標：https://themarketmemo.com/mytradingview/ 簡易交易流程：https://themarketmemo.com/tradingchecklist/ 讓交易更簡單： 價量時空，交易的四大要素：https://youtu.be/K2OiWFYyP7Y 趨勢的五種類型及應對策略：https://youtu.be/MTmz6OLCykc 趨勢轉折與發展的關鍵步驟：https://youtu.be/TM74mQAXpW0 計畫你的交易，交易你的計劃：htt ...

Core Insights - Wu Xuetao achieved second place in the 19th National Futures (Options) Live Trading Competition, showcasing a unique trading strategy and strong conviction in his positions [1] - His trading journey began in 1997, evolving from stock trading to futures, with significant challenges faced between 2011 and 2012, leading to a pivotal change in strategy in 2018 [1][2] Group 1: Trading Strategy - Wu's strategy involves a dual approach of "long-term profit from basis + intraday stable trading," particularly focusing on the CSI 500 index futures due to its attractive basis [1][2] - In the recent competition, he allocated 70% of his capital to long positions and 30% to intraday trades, adopting a "never stop-loss" philosophy, which is contrary to conventional wisdom in the futures market [2][3] - His approach includes frequent trading, with 10 to 30 trades daily, emphasizing that proper capital management can mitigate the risks associated with high-frequency trading [3] Group 2: Market Conditions and Performance - The introduction of the CSI 1000 index futures in the second half of 2022 presented an opportunity for Wu, who switched his trading focus to this product due to its higher basis and volatility [2] - During the competition, the favorable market conditions contributed to his success, particularly in the options segment, where he utilized long positions in deep in-the-money options [2] - Wu's performance reflects a personalized trading strategy that diverges from mainstream practices, highlighting the importance of finding a suitable approach that aligns with individual strengths [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a recurring EBITDA of BRL 1.3 billion, an increase of almost 8% compared to the same period last year [6] - Recurring net income was BRL 375 million, reflecting a decrease of 36.5% year-on-year [20] - Total CapEx for Q3 2025 was BRL 981 million, with a year-to-date total of BRL 2.6 billion [6][21] - The net debt over EBITDA ratio was 3.0x, improving to 2.8x after the sale of Baixo Iguaçu HPP [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Copel GenCo's recurring EBITDA grew by 11% year-on-year, contributing 53% to the overall EBITDA [15] - The distribution segment (Copel DisCo) saw a recurring EBITDA increase of 7.2%, driven by a 1.7% growth in the billed energy market [17] - Copel Com's EBITDA dropped by BRL 7.3 million due to legacy contracts and a 39.1% increase in PMSO expenses [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The sales volume reached almost 5 GWh, with a 1.7% growth in the distribution market [9] - The PLD spot market increased by approximately 50% compared to Q3 2024, reaching about BRL 250/MWh [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on optimizing its portfolio and simplifying operations, as evidenced by the divestment of four photovoltaic solar plants [7] - A strategic shift towards a simpler and more transparent shareholder structure is underway, with plans to unify share classes [12] - The company is preparing for a historical tariff review in 2026, emphasizing the importance of operational efficiency and capital allocation [20][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the resilience of the business despite challenging conditions, including a GSF of approximately 65% and a curtailment of almost 35% [9] - The management expressed confidence in achieving a successful tariff review, aiming to exceed market consensus [50][52] - The company is actively monitoring regulatory changes, particularly regarding MP 1304, which could impact future operations [53][70] Other Important Information - The company is committed to maintaining a healthy capital structure to support ongoing investments and operational efficiency [23] - A significant focus is placed on cost management, with a 4.1% reduction in recurring PMSO expenses year-on-year [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confirmation on the completion of migration to Novo Mercado and dividend payout expectations - Management expects to complete the migration by the end of December and plans to announce dividends linked to this process [26][27] Question: Insights on cost efficiency and potential for further reductions - The company aims to capture more efficiencies and anticipates cost reductions through various initiatives by 2026 [28] Question: Strategy for the Generation and Transmission segment and trading company - The company has developed a competitive trading strategy, successfully capitalizing on low energy prices [30][31] Question: Expectations for the tariff review process and its significance - Management views the upcoming tariff review as a historical milestone and is actively preparing for it [50][52] Question: Discussion on MP 1304 and its implications for the company - The management believes that while MP 1304 may affect LRCAP dynamics, it will not significantly impact the company's operations [53] Question: Potential for inorganic growth and exploration of new segments - Currently, the company is focused on organic growth and digital transformation, with no active pursuit of acquisitions [46] Question: Clarification on curtailment definitions and their potential impact - Management is closely monitoring discussions around curtailment and its implications for renewable energy sources [70]

Core Insights - The high number of losses in stock index futures trading is attributed to a combination of trading mechanisms and human psychological weaknesses [3][4][6] Group 1: Human Psychological Traps - Emotional decision-making leads to hesitation in stop-loss actions, with many traders holding onto losing positions in hopes of a market reversal, resulting in greater losses [3] - Anxiety over profits causes traders to close positions prematurely, missing out on larger trends [3] Group 2: Leverage Effects - Leverage amplifies mistakes; for instance, a 10x leverage can result in a 30% loss of capital with just a 3% adverse market movement [4] - Margin pressure from leveraged trading can lead to forced liquidation during market downturns, disconnecting traders from potential rebounds [5] Group 3: Market Characteristics - The nature of the market is a zero-sum game, where gains for some traders mean losses for others, often leaving retail investors at a disadvantage [6] - A significant portion of traders struggle to differentiate between ranging and trending markets, leading to frequent stop-loss executions in sideways markets and missed opportunities in trending markets [6] Group 4: Trading Costs and Strategies - Price volatility in futures markets can lead to discrepancies between expected and actual closing prices, contributing to losses [8] - Transaction costs, including commissions and fees, can erode profits and exacerbate losses [8] - Effective trading strategies and risk management are crucial; inadequate planning can lead to significant losses [8][9]

1. Overall Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The commodity futures market is influenced by a variety of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities due to their unique fundamentals [2][4][9]. - In the precious metals market, the price of gold and silver is affected by factors such as US economic data, Fed officials' statements, and inventory changes. In the base metals market, copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by market risk preferences, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes. In the black industry, steel, iron ore, and other products are affected by factors such as supply - demand balance and cost changes. In the agricultural products market, factors such as supply - demand balance, weather, and policies affect the prices of soybeans, corn, and other products. In the energy and chemical industry, factors such as new device production, demand, and geopolitical risks affect the prices of LLDPE, PVC, and other products [2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Overnight, precious metal prices rose and then fell, with London gold reaching $4000/ounce. The US included copper and silver in the new key minerals list, and US employment data was weak. Domestic gold ETF inflows were 1.1 tons. Suggest buying at the lower support level [2]. - **Silver**: Multiple factors influenced the market, and it is recommended to reduce long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated. The market risk preference declined, and the supply of copper ore remained tight. It is recommended to treat it with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [4]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 1.10%. Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. Pay attention to the de - stocking of aluminum ingots [4]. - **Alumina**: The price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.54%. Supply decreased due to environmental protection, and demand remained high. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **Zinc**: The price of the zinc main contract increased slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to sell short at high prices [5]. - **Lead**: The price of the lead main contract decreased slightly. Supply was marginally loose, and demand was mixed. It is recommended to operate within an interval [5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased. Supply decreased, and demand was supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to operate between 8600 - 9400, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract increased. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was high. It is recommended to try to buy on dips [6]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract increased slightly. Supply decreased, and demand was under pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips or sell put options [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices oscillated weakly. Market risk preferences fluctuated, and supply was expected to ease. It is recommended to use an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [6]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the rebar main contract increased. Supply and demand weakened marginally, and the futures price was at a high valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the iron ore main contract decreased. Supply and demand were neutral and deteriorated marginally. It is recommended to exit and wait, and aggressive investors can try to short [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the coking coal main contract decreased slightly. Supply and demand were affected by steel production, and the futures price was at a high valuation. It is recommended to exit and wait, and aggressive investors can try to short [8]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans may enter an oscillation phase. Domestic supply is relatively loose, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [9]. - **Corn**: Corn futures prices rose, and spot prices were mixed. New grain is about to be listed, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. - **Sugar**: The price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract increased slightly. Internationally, sugar production is expected to increase, and it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [9]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices oscillated weakly. It is recommended to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 range [9]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded. Supply increased, and demand increased slightly. The market is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to production and policies [10]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures and spot prices rose. Supply decreased, and demand increased seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly [10]. - **Pigs**: Pig futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were mixed. Supply is sufficient, and prices are expected to be weak [10]. - **Apples**: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. Different regions have different situations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [11]. - **PVC**: The price of the PVC main contract decreased. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to short or do a reverse spread [12]. - **PTA**: PX supply increased, and PTA supply pressure was high in the medium - long term. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and short the processing fee in the far - month contracts [12]. - **Glass**: The price of the glass main contract decreased. Supply decreased due to production line shutdowns, and demand improved. It is recommended to do a reverse spread [12]. - **PP**: The price of the PP main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [12]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices fell. Supply pressure increased, and demand was seasonally weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it can be shorted at high prices if Russian oil production reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [13]. - **Styrene**: The price of the styrene main contract continued to decline slightly. Supply and demand were weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - long term [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract increased. Supply and demand were balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [13].

Core Insights - The 19th National Futures (Options) Live Trading Competition and the 12th Global Derivatives Live Trading Competition award ceremony will take place on November 15 in Xi'an, attracting participants eager to learn and network in a volatile market environment [1][2] - The event serves as a platform for knowledge sharing, experience transmission, and recognition of outstanding traders, highlighting the importance of professional knowledge and practical experience in achieving success in futures trading [2] Group 1 - The award ceremony is expected to gather top talents from the futures industry, providing opportunities for participants to learn strategies and risk management techniques amidst significant market fluctuations [1][2] - Participants express a desire to connect with like-minded individuals and gain insights from experts regarding future market trends and profitable trading strategies [1][2] Group 2 - Industry experts emphasize the need for personal investors to focus on strategy optimization and risk control, while companies should deepen the integration of finance and industry, and private equity institutions should enhance competitiveness through technology [2] - The growing complexity of the market environment by 2025 necessitates a mindset of "risk awareness and continuous evolution" for investors to seize certain opportunities amidst volatility [2] - The increasing success of participants with professional backgrounds and practical experience in the competition underscores the importance of integrating knowledge and experience in futures trading [2]

Core Insights - The event gathered hundreds of traders and investment enthusiasts despite the rainy weather, showcasing strong participation and interest in trading strategies and mindset management [2][4] Group 1: Event Overview - The summit officially commenced with a speech from a representative of JUNO MARKETS, emphasizing the platform's vision to provide not just information but a clear trading path for users [5] - The introduction of the new JUNO official app and copy trading community was highlighted as a significant enhancement to user experience [7][9] Group 2: Expert Presentations - The first speaker, Pan Lei, shared insights from his 17 years of market experience, focusing on understanding market orders and effective entry and exit strategies, while also stressing risk control [10] - Following him, Mo Fan presented on universal chart rules in asset management trading, discussing market environment assessment, strategy formulation, and the importance of review sessions [12] - KIKI, a distinguished female analyst, concluded the presentations by addressing trading challenges and key success factors, emphasizing market understanding and emotional stability [14][16] Group 3: Interactive Discussions - A roundtable discussion followed the presentations, where the three speakers engaged with attendees on topics such as technical analysis and trading psychology, fostering an interactive and lively atmosphere [18] Group 4: Engagement Activities - To reward participants, JUNO MARKETS organized a raffle with prizes including iPads, iWatch SE, and AirPods, enhancing the event's excitement [22][24] Group 5: Attendee Experiences - Attendees actively documented the presentations, indicating high engagement levels, and some even formed connections for future collaboration [26][28][30]