期数： 2025年9月刊 马女士 Ms . Ceres TEL：（+86）137-7604-9049 Emai l：CeresMa@cinno.com.cn 主题： 国补政策与旺季备货双轮驱动，2025年三季度LCD TV面板出货量预计同比增长5.1% 概要： 内容涵盖全球LCD TV面板的出货量、出货面积以及各大面板厂出货量、出货面积排名情况，具体分析了全球LCD TV面板月度出货量的变化情 况以及各大面板厂主流尺寸的出货量、出货面积占比情况。 1. 全球LCD TV面板出货量季度、月度变化情况及预测 2. 09'24~09'25(E) LCD TV面板价格月度变化趋势 3. 2024~2025年"以旧换新"国补政策相关时间线 4. Q3'24(E)全球LCD TV面板出货量、出货面积排名及同比情况 5.Q1'24~Q3'25(E) BOE LCD TV面板分尺寸出货量、出货面积占比情况 6. Q1'24~Q3'25(E) CSOT LCD TV面板分尺寸出货量、出货面积占比情况 7. Q1'24~Q3'25(E) HKC LCD TV面板分尺寸出货量、出货面积占比情况 8. Q1'24~Q3'25(E) ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "double interest subsidy" policy for personal consumption loans and service industry loans aims to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand, which is a key focus of current economic work [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The "double interest subsidy" policy is designed to effectively release the potential of domestic demand and support various consumer expenditures, including home renovations and essential services [1][2]. - For example, a consumer taking a loan of 200,000 yuan for home improvement could save approximately 2,000 yuan in interest payments due to a 1% subsidy, while a restaurant upgrading its facilities with a 1,000,000 yuan loan could save around 10,000 yuan [1][2]. - The policy covers a wide range of consumer needs, from essential items to discretionary spending, indicating a comprehensive approach to stimulating consumption [1][2]. Group 2: Consumer Loan Statistics - As of the end of 2024, the balance of consumer loans (excluding mortgages) in China is projected to reach 21.01 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [2]. - Empirical studies show that the introduction of consumer financial products can increase borrowing consumers' spending by 16% to 30%, while merchant sales can rise by approximately 40% [2]. - There is a notable supply-demand gap in consumer credit services, with the demand rate exceeding actual participation by 5.3 percentage points in 2021, up from 2.5 percentage points in 2019 [2]. Group 3: Broader Economic Policies - The "double interest subsidy" policy is part of a broader set of measures aimed at enhancing consumer confidence and spending, including free preschool education and childcare subsidies [2]. - The government has initiated various policies, such as a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care re-loan, to create a cohesive framework for stimulating consumption [2]. - The cumulative effect of these policies is expected to significantly boost the consumption capacity of the middle-income group [2]. Group 4: Innovation and Consumer Engagement - The success of these policies relies on understanding consumer psychology and preferences, emphasizing the need for innovation in product offerings [4][5]. - Examples of innovative consumer products and services, such as cultural souvenirs and drone delivery systems, highlight the importance of creating new demand [3][4]. - The market's ability to leverage policy benefits through innovation will be crucial for effectively boosting consumption [5].

Core Insights - Kuaishou E-commerce launched the "National Subsidy Partner" program on August 22, featuring 24 top influencers with a combined follower count exceeding 390 million and an average monthly sales volume of over 2 billion [1] - The program aims to promote the government's old-for-new subsidy policy, which has already been implemented in several provinces, offering subsidies up to 20,000 yuan for certain products [1] - The old-for-new policy has successfully stimulated consumer enthusiasm, with participating merchants experiencing over 50% year-on-year growth in GMV during the 618 shopping festival [1] Group 1 - The "National Subsidy Partner" program includes influencers from various verticals, enhancing the reach to diverse user groups on Kuaishou [1] - Selected influencers will receive dedicated e-commerce traffic incentives and exclusive participation in platform activities for increased exposure [1] - The old-for-new subsidy initiative has been integrated into Kuaishou's platform since early this year, with significant engagement in regions like Shanxi, Shaanxi, Yunnan, and Hunan [1] Group 2 - Influencer Zhu Ge is actively promoting the old-for-new subsidy policy through short videos and live streams, aiming to attract more users to benefit from the policy [2] - Kuaishou E-commerce has significantly increased traffic support for the subsidy marketing activities, with plans to further invest in the program in the second half of the year [5] - The company aims to enhance the influence of the "National Subsidy Partner" initiative, ensuring broader coverage of the subsidy policy and boosting sales of related products [5]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry in China is experiencing a slight decline in the logistics prosperity index for July 2025, which stands at 50.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from June, but still indicates an expansion trend [1][2]. Group 1: Logistics Demand and Supply - The overall logistics demand remains stable, with the total logistics demand showing a strong growth momentum despite adverse weather conditions such as local floods and high temperatures [1][2]. - The business volume index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion across all major regions [1]. - The new orders index for logistics companies has increased to 52.5%, reflecting a slight month-on-month rise, with eastern and western regions showing improvements [1][2]. Group 2: Price and Market Expectations - The logistics service price index has seen a slight increase, particularly in road and water transportation sectors, with respective rises of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points [1]. - The business activity expectation index remains above 55%, with high levels in the air transport, postal express, and multimodal transport sectors [2]. - The "old-for-new" national subsidy policy and innovative services in the home appliance sector are driving further growth in logistics demand [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall recovery momentum and market expectations for the logistics industry in China are considered positive [3].

专题：专题|2024年度A股CFO数据报告：美的集团钟铮年薪946万，比亚迪周亚琳896万 作为上市公司核心管理层关键成员，财务总监CFO的地位与作用至关重要。新浪财经《2024年度A股CFO数据报告》显示，2024年A股上市公司财务总监 CFO群体薪酬规模合计达42.70亿元，平均年薪为81.48万元。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 就年龄结构而言，2024年家用电器上市公司CFO平均年龄为47.79岁，40-50岁群体约占48.5%，50岁以上群体约占37.4%，30-40岁群体约占14.1%。其中，男 性占比55.6%，平均年龄为48.71岁，49.1%超过50岁，40岁以下的CFO仅有5名；女性占比44.4%，平均年龄为46.64岁，34.1%在50岁以上，40岁以下的CFO 共9名。 年龄最大的男性CFO为供职于禾盛新材的周万民，现已67岁。彩虹集团的女性CFO刘群英目前61岁，在公司担任董事、副总经理和财务总监。联域股份的董 事会秘书、财务总监李群艳和天银机电的副总经理、财务总监李荟都为"90后"女性，年龄在35岁以下。 就任职期限而言，2024年家用电器上市公司CFO任职期在 ...

Core Insights - The new round of the "old-for-new" policy has been implemented since the second half of last year, with significant expansion this year, leading to over 66 million consumers purchasing home appliances and over 69 million purchasing digital products through national subsidies [1][4] - The policy has effectively stimulated a large demand for product upgrades, but challenges such as "difficulty in obtaining coupons" and "capital pressure" have emerged for some offline channels [1][7] - The government plans to enhance the "timeliness" and "equity" of policy implementation in response to market concerns, with a focus on ensuring balanced distribution of subsidy funds [1][13] Market Performance - Retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 30.7% year-on-year, while communication equipment sales rose by 24.1% in the first half of the year [3] - The number of consumers participating in the "old-for-new" program has significantly increased, with 1.09 billion appliances and 740 million digital products purchased [1][4] Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" policy has expanded from covering 8 categories of appliances in 2024 to 15 categories in 2025, with subsidies of up to 2000 yuan for home appliances and 500 yuan for digital products [4][5] - The policy has led to a notable shift towards high-efficiency and smart products, with sales of energy-efficient appliances seeing substantial growth [5] Challenges Faced by Retailers - Some retailers report difficulties in accessing subsidies, with stringent requirements and long waiting periods for reimbursement, leading to cash flow issues [7][10] - The competition between online and offline channels has intensified, with online platforms offering easier access to subsidies, causing offline retailers to struggle [8][9] Future Directions - The government is set to implement a more structured approach to subsidy distribution, ensuring that funds are allocated equitably and efficiently across regions [13][14] - There is an expectation for improved consumer experience and policy effectiveness as local governments refine execution details based on regional consumption characteristics [14]

Core Viewpoint - The new round of the "old-for-new" policy has effectively stimulated consumer demand and market vitality, but challenges in implementation have emerged, particularly for offline channels, necessitating a more balanced approach to policy execution [1][3][17]. Group 1: Policy Impact and Market Response - Over 66 million consumers have purchased over 109 million home appliances through national subsidies in the first half of 2025, indicating strong consumer engagement [1]. - Retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 30.7% year-on-year, while communication equipment sales rose by 24.1% in the same period, reflecting the positive impact of the subsidy policy [3]. - The number of subsidized product categories expanded from 8 to 15 in 2025, with significant subsidies for energy-efficient and smart products, enhancing consumer purchasing power [3][4]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Offline Channels - Some offline retailers are struggling with the "difficulty in obtaining coupons" and "capital pressure," as they must pre-fund subsidies and face long reimbursement cycles [9][12]. - Reports indicate that some stores have stopped participating in the subsidy program due to stringent requirements and difficulties in accessing funds [10][11]. - The competition between online and offline channels has intensified, with online platforms offering easier access to subsidies, leading to a decline in offline sales [11][14]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The market is experiencing a shift in retail channel dynamics, with traditional e-commerce gaining a larger share, while smaller offline retailers face significant pressure due to their inability to access subsidies [5][14]. - The subsidy policy has led to a temporary boost in sales, but the long-term effects are diminishing, with some retailers reporting that the subsidies have not significantly increased their sales beyond seasonal trends [13][14]. - The disparity in subsidy access has raised concerns about market fairness, as smaller retailers can undercut prices without the same operational costs as larger, compliant businesses [13]. Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The government plans to enhance the "timeliness" and "equity" of subsidy implementation, with a focus on ensuring that funds are allocated fairly across regions and sectors [17][19]. - Upcoming adjustments to the subsidy program aim to streamline processes and improve consumer experiences, particularly in areas facing challenges with coupon distribution [19][20]. - Industry experts anticipate that more refined policy arrangements will maximize the effectiveness of the subsidy program in stimulating consumer demand [19].

Core Insights - The government is enhancing the implementation of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy to address market concerns, focusing on "timeliness" and "balance" [1][14] - The policy has successfully stimulated significant consumer demand, with over 66 million consumers purchasing home appliances and digital products under the subsidy program [1][3] - The market for home appliances and audio-visual equipment saw a retail sales growth of 30.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, while communication equipment grew by 24.1% [3] Group 1: Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has expanded from covering 8 categories of appliances in 2024 to 15 categories in 2025, including smartphones and smart home devices, with subsidies of up to 2,000 yuan for appliances and 500 yuan for digital products [4][5] - The policy has led to a significant increase in sales of high-efficiency and smart products, with sales of first-level energy-efficient appliances seeing substantial year-on-year growth [5][11] - The recycling and processing system for old appliances has improved, with millions of units being processed, enhancing resource utilization [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is a notable shift in retail channel dynamics, with traditional e-commerce channels gaining market share while smaller retailers face challenges due to subsidy access and funding issues [5][12] - Some retailers report difficulties in accessing subsidy vouchers, leading to a decline in sales, particularly in lower-tier cities where competition with online platforms is fierce [7][8] - The financial burden of upfront subsidy payments is straining cash flow for many retailers, with delays in reimbursement from the government exacerbating the situation [9][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - The government plans to implement a more structured approach to subsidy distribution, ensuring that funds are allocated consistently across regions and sectors [14][15] - Upcoming measures aim to enhance the consumer experience and policy effectiveness, with adjustments to address regional disparities and streamline processes [15]

Summary of the Conference Call for Oppein Home Industry Overview - The home furnishing industry is experiencing a shift towards multi-category and cross-category sales, with a focus on package deals and one-stop design to enhance customer experience and sales conversion rates [2][6][7] - The demand for integrated home furnishing solutions is rising, with consumers preferring one-stop solutions for their home decoration needs [2][7][8] Key Points and Arguments - **Impact of National Subsidy Policy**: The national subsidy policy has a short-term stimulating effect on home furnishing consumption, particularly for medium to large improvement needs. However, the effectiveness of the policy has weakened, leading to a short-term gap where most incremental orders are expected to convert into revenue in the second quarter [2][3][14] - **Contract Liability Conversion Cycle**: The conversion cycle for contract liabilities has been extended due to the national subsidy policy. Customers are enjoying subsidies earlier, but actual demand may be delayed, making it difficult to quantify the conversion cycle linearly [2][5] - **Operational Efficiency**: Oppein Home has improved operational efficiency through process optimization and empowerment systems, resulting in better cost control and gross margin levels compared to peers [2][9] - **E-commerce and Self-Media Operations**: To address high customer acquisition costs, Oppein Home is increasing average transaction values and empowering agents through e-commerce and self-media operations to enhance conversion rates [4][10][11] Additional Important Insights - **Dealer Management and Support**: The company is focusing on enhancing dealer management and support to alleviate cash flow pressures caused by the national subsidy policy. Despite the increase in contract liabilities, dealers are expected to maintain resilience due to a strong customer base [17][18] - **Sales Strategy and Customer Flow**: The company is shifting from single-category brand investments to a comprehensive home furnishing approach, improving overall efficiency and customer flow through targeted marketing strategies [22][23] - **Future Industry Outlook**: The home furnishing industry is expected to continue evolving, with increased complexity in operations and sales management. Oppein Home aims to strengthen its capabilities in lead generation, integrated furniture solutions, and operational efficiency to maintain a competitive edge [24] Conclusion Oppein Home is strategically positioning itself to adapt to the changing dynamics of the home furnishing industry by enhancing operational efficiency, leveraging national subsidy policies, and focusing on integrated solutions to meet consumer demands. The company is also committed to supporting its dealers and optimizing its sales strategies to navigate current market challenges.

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 performance, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations in revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by user experience focus, content ecosystem development, and government subsidy policies [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 16% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 13% [1]. - Gross profit was 47.8 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year and down 10% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - Operating profit stood at 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase [1]. - Net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, a 53% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached 12.8 billion yuan, up 43% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter [1]. User Engagement and Growth - The platform achieved double-digit year-over-year growth in active users for six consecutive quarters, with growth exceeding 20% [2]. - The number of third-party merchant transaction users also saw double-digit year-over-year growth [2]. Retail Performance - JD Retail revenue grew 16% year-over-year to 263.8 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin increase of 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [3]. - Revenue from 1P electronic products increased by 17% to 144.3 billion yuan, while 1P daily necessities revenue grew by 15% to 98 billion yuan [3]. - The growth was supported by a stable recovery in consumer spending and effective marketing collaborations with brands like Xiaomi [3]. Logistics Performance - JD Logistics revenue reached 47 billion yuan, an 11% year-over-year increase but a 10% quarter-over-quarter decrease [4]. - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers was 23.2 billion yuan, up 13.2% year-over-year, with the number of external integrated supply chain customers reaching 63,000, a 13.1% increase [4]. New Business Initiatives - New business revenue, including food delivery, amounted to 5.8 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan [4]. - The management emphasized focusing on user and merchant experience, business scale, and ROI for the food delivery service [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upward to 1,286.6 billion yuan, 1,371.3 billion yuan, and 1,449.6 billion yuan respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts have been adjusted downward to 34 billion yuan, 45.4 billion yuan, and 52.6 billion yuan for the same period [4]. - The target market capitalization for JD Group is set at 592.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 186 yuan per share [4].