Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate industry in 2024 Core Insights - The average revenue of the top 30 listed real estate companies in China is projected to decline by approximately 13.83% in 2024, totaling around RMB 2.77 trillion [9] - The average gross margin for these companies is expected to decrease to about 14.42%, down by 1.86% from the previous year [13] - The average net profit margin is projected to be around -10.81%, reflecting a significant decline of 12.45% compared to the previous year [16] - The average return on equity is expected to drop to approximately -20.75%, a decrease of 16.44% from 2023 [59] Summary by Sections 1. Revenue Overview - The total revenue for the top 30 listed real estate companies in 2024 is estimated at RMB 2.77 trillion, a decline of 13.83% year-on-year [9] - Financial Street leads the revenue growth with an increase of 51.74%, reaching RMB 190.75 billion [8] - 20 companies experienced revenue declines, with Midea Real Estate facing the largest drop at 94.94% [9] 2. Gross Margin Overview - The average gross margin for the top 30 companies is projected to be 14.42%, down 1.86% from the previous year [13] - Midea Real Estate shows the highest increase in gross margin at approximately 24.21% [14] - 23 companies reported a decline in gross margin, with Jinhui experiencing the largest drop of 30.80% [13] 3. Net Profit Overview - The average net profit for the top 30 companies is expected to be a loss of RMB 11.65 billion, a decline of 62.09 billion from a profit of RMB 50.44 billion in 2023 [23] - China Resources leads in net profit with RMB 336.78 billion, although this represents a 9.72% decrease from the previous year [24] - Over 70% of companies reported a decline in net profit, with Vanke transitioning from a profit of RMB 204.56 billion to a loss of approximately RMB 487.04 billion [23] 4. Inventory Overview - The total inventory for the top 30 companies is projected to be approximately RMB 60.85 billion, a decrease of 13.58% year-on-year [33] - Only one company, Ruian, reported an increase in inventory, with a growth of 16.03% [33] - Midea Real Estate experienced the largest inventory decline at 99.11% [33] 5. Liquidity Ratios - The average current ratio for the top 30 companies is expected to be 152.86%, a slight increase of 0.15% from the previous year [42] - 16 companies reported a decline in their current ratios, with Xinda showing the largest drop of 39.17% [42] 6. Cash Short-term Debt Ratio - The average cash short-term debt ratio is projected to be 1.52, a decrease of 0.11 from the previous year [54] - Ocean Group has the lowest cash short-term debt ratio at 0.01, while Binhai has the highest at 5.53 [54] 7. Return on Equity Overview - The average return on equity is expected to be -20.75%, a decline of 16.44% from 2023 [59] - Only two companies, Jinmao and New Town, are expected to report positive returns on equity [59]

恒大退市的消息传来，那些手握烂尾楼购房合同的业主们，再次被卷入不安的漩涡。他们毕生的积蓄、背上的几十年房贷，都成了这场楼市震荡中最沉重 的代价，而那栋停滞在钢筋水泥中的建筑，成了一个遥不可及的家的符号。 那些困在烂尾楼里的家庭，需要的不只是一栋完工的房子，更是对公平与正义的交代。当每一个环节都守住责任底线，当每一份失责都得到应有惩戒，才 能让"买房"这件事回归它本来的意义——给努力生活的人一个安稳的港湾，而不是一场耗尽希望的冒险。 监管环节的疏漏同样令人痛心。一个楼盘从拿地到开工，要经过规划审批、资金监管、工程验收等诸多环节，每一个印章都意味着一份责任。可为何当开 发商把预售资金挪作他用，当工程进度严重滞后于合同约定时，这些本应发挥作用的"安全阀"没能及时启动？有业内人士透露，部分项目的监管账户早已 成了摆设，资金被违规抽调却无人问责。如果早期监管能真正"长牙"，对违规行为及时亮剑，或许就能避免风险像滚雪球般扩大，让普通百姓不必为监管 的缺位买单。 更令人无奈的是，这场由开发商激进扩张引发的危机，最终却让最无辜的购房者承担了后果。他们只是想在城市里安个家，用攒了半辈子的钱付了首付， 签下贷款合同时甚至畅想着装 ...

Group 1 - China Evergrande officially delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 25, ending its 16-year capital journey, with a debt burden of 2.4 trillion yuan impacting various stakeholders including investors, suppliers, and homebuyers [1] - 1.62 million unfinished properties affect 6 million homeowners, who face a 25% drop in property value while still repaying mortgages, leading to financial distress and loss of educational opportunities for their children [1] - Suppliers are severely impacted, with Evergrande owing over 900 billion yuan in construction payments, causing significant disruptions in the supply chain, including near bankruptcy for Nantong Sanjian and restructuring for Guotian Group due to bad debts [1] Group 2 - Investors have lost their investments, with retail investors holding 34% of shares seeing their stocks become worthless post-delisting, and state-owned shareholder Shenzhen Talent Housing Group losing a total investment of 25 billion yuan [1] - Evergrande's liquidatable assets are only 2 billion Hong Kong dollars, placing shareholders at the bottom of the repayment hierarchy [1] - The crisis highlights the dangers of high-leverage business models and exacerbates the "guarantee delivery of homes" issue, further eroding social trust [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Evergrande is set to be delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on August 25, 2025, following the announcement that it will not appeal the delisting decision [1][3]. Group 1: Delisting Process and Market Implications - The delisting of China Evergrande was widely anticipated and is seen as a necessary outcome of market dynamics, reflecting the accelerated metabolism of the Hong Kong capital market [4][5]. - According to Hong Kong's listing rules, a company can be delisted if its securities are suspended for 18 months, which applies to China Evergrande as it has been suspended since January 29, 2024, due to a court-ordered liquidation [5]. - From 2018 to June 2025, a total of 167 companies were forcibly delisted from the Hong Kong main board, with an average of over 30 companies delisted annually from 2022 to 2024 [5]. Group 2: Impact on Creditors and Operations - The delisting does not affect the rights of creditors, as they can still assert their claims during the liquidation process, and the liquidation will continue unaffected [6]. - China Evergrande's stock will remain suspended until its delisting is finalized, and the company has been unable to find a restructuring plan to meet the requirements for resuming trading [6]. - The real estate operations of China Evergrande are not directly impacted by the delisting, as the company continues to focus on completing housing deliveries [7]. Group 3: Bankruptcy Proceedings - Some subsidiaries of China Evergrande, such as Kailong Real Estate, have entered bankruptcy proceedings, which is viewed as a natural outcome of market selection [7].

Core Viewpoint - The current state of China's real estate market in 2025 shows that despite relaxed policies and attractive mortgage rates, housing prices are not increasing as expected, with significant declines in some areas [1][3]. Policy Changes - As of 2025, 132 cities have relaxed housing policies, with down payments reduced to 15% and first-home mortgage rates as low as 3.25% [3]. - In Hefei, the complete removal of purchase restrictions resulted in only a 7% increase in residential transactions compared to April, significantly lower than the 30% increase seen in 2020 [3]. Market Performance - A project launched in 2023 with 1,200 units sold only 312 units over two years, resulting in a sales rate of less than 26% [5]. - Nationwide, there is a housing inventory of 782 million square meters, which, at the current sales pace, would take 14 months to sell out, with inventory increasing by 5.2% monthly [5]. Price Disparities - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, slight price increases were observed, with Dongcheng and Huangpu districts seeing increases of 0.3% and 0.5%, respectively, due to limited new supply [7]. - In contrast, cities like Dongguan and Changzhou experienced significant price drops, with new home prices falling by 18.3% compared to their peak in 2023 [7]. Buyer Sentiment - First-time homebuyers and investors have differing perspectives, with first-time buyers more concerned about price guarantees and developers' reliability [9]. - Data indicates that the average time to resell a property has increased to 6.8 years in 2025, compared to 3.2 years in 2019, making short-term profit from property sales unlikely [9]. Developer Trust Issues - Ongoing issues with delayed property deliveries have led to buyer skepticism, with 23 cities still facing unresolved overdue delivery projects as of June 2025 [11]. - This lack of trust in developers has diminished the effectiveness of policy measures, with transaction volume increases significantly lower in 2025 compared to 2020 [11]. Future Outlook - Core cities may see slight price increases, while third and fourth-tier cities are likely to experience further declines [13]. - The era of significant wealth accumulation through real estate investment may be over, although first-time buyers may benefit from more negotiating power [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and risks associated with purchasing abandoned real estate properties, highlighting a specific case in Guilin where a previously unsold property was auctioned for a significantly lower price, but with substantial hidden costs and obligations involved in the acquisition process [1][3][5]. Group 1: Auction Process and Costs - A property in Guilin was auctioned for 20.3 million, down from a previous price of over 60 million, but the buyer must pay a 5 million performance deposit, which is non-refundable if the project fails to meet inspection standards for two consecutive months [3][5][6]. - The property is an abandoned residential complex that requires resolving issues for 13 households, with additional costs totaling approximately 2.13 million, leading to a total upfront cost of 7.13 million before any construction begins [5][6]. - There are strict timelines for starting construction within two months and completing delivery within nine months, with financial liabilities falling on the buyer if these deadlines are not met [6][8]. Group 2: Risks of Purchasing Abandoned Properties - The article emphasizes that purchasing abandoned properties is not straightforward, as seen in a case in Beijing where a factory was auctioned for only 18,000, but the court later canceled the sale due to creditor objections [8][9]. - Factors such as unclear property rights, creditor disputes, and multiple mortgages can complicate the acquisition process, often leading to the cancellation of sales to protect creditor interests [9][10]. - The article illustrates that the government plays a crucial role in facilitating the sale of abandoned properties, as demonstrated by the successful auction of the Fengdan Liyuan property in Guilin, which involved government intervention to attract buyers through financial incentives [12][14][16]. Group 3: Government Initiatives and Market Dynamics - The Guilin government has actively sought to address the issue of abandoned properties by implementing strategies to revitalize these assets, including adjusting commercial-residential ratios and providing financial support for redevelopment [14][16][20]. - The article notes that the problem of abandoned properties is widespread across China, with various provinces, including Hunan, facing similar challenges and implementing measures to ensure the delivery of housing projects [20][22]. - The "guarantee delivery" initiative in Hunan aims to address the backlog of undelivered housing units, highlighting the need for collaborative efforts among stakeholders to resolve the abandoned property crisis [22].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the efforts of China Orient Asset Management Co., Ltd. in revitalizing distressed real estate projects in China, addressing liquidity crises faced by some real estate companies, and restoring the credit chain in the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Support and Project Revitalization - As of the end of Q1 2025, China Orient has supported over 200 billion yuan in stock projects to resume work and production [2]. - The company has facilitated the delivery of 64,300 residential units on time, resolved over 2.1 billion yuan in wage payments for migrant workers, and paid over 10 billion yuan in upstream and downstream material and project payments [3]. - The Shenzhen Yuemeng project serves as a typical case where China Orient coordinated multiple parties to establish a stable fund, effectively managing debt risks and preventing further financial contagion [3][4]. Group 2: Activation of Inefficient Assets - China Orient has successfully revitalized a number of "sleeping assets" through judicial debt settlement and cooperative activation, providing replicable industry experiences [4]. - The Beijing Liubai Ben project, previously a stalled commercial street, was transformed into a modern commercial complex through a comprehensive activation model involving local government support and quality industry partnerships [4]. Group 3: Social Welfare and Housing Security - The company actively explores innovative models to support "people's livelihood," focusing on affordable housing construction and urban village renovations [5]. - In a key affordable housing project in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, China Orient collaborated closely with local government and state-owned enterprises to clear debt obstacles and restore the supply chain, enabling over a thousand families to achieve housing stability [5]. - China Orient aims to continue focusing on risk resolution in key areas such as real estate, contributing to the stability of the financial system and the recovery of the real estate market [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: The medium - term outlook is a sideways market. In the short - term, spot transactions are stable, and policy proposals and peak - season expectations drive a rebound. However, factors such as Hubei's warehouse receipt pricing and high inventory limit the upside. The long - term bullish view is supported by policy expectations, low prices, long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. The bearish view is based on the lack of substantial improvement in the real - estate market and high inventory pressure [6][7]. - Soda Ash: The trend is sideways with a downward bias. High glass inventory and large losses limit the price increase of soda ash. Although short - term valuation is low and there are some positive expectations, the market will face greater delivery pressure. The core factors are high production and high inventory, and it is difficult to expect a long - term shortage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass 3.1.1 Supply - Side Situation - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 10,530 tons/day [11]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,510 tons/day [12]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,600 tons/day [14]. - Potential复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 8,130 tons/day, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [15]. - Potential cold - repair production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [17]. - The current in - production capacity is about 157,000 tons/day. The peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day, and the recent low was 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day. The production reduction space in the first half of the year is limited [19][21]. 3.1.2 Price and Profit - This week, transactions were stable, with most prices unchanged and some in Shahe rising by 10 yuan/ton. Shahe's price is around 1,130 - 1,180 yuan/ton, Hubei's is around 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and East China's is around 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [27][31]. - Futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was stable. The monthly spread was weak due to near - month warehouse receipt factors [33][35]. - Profits: Petroleum coke profit is around - 101 yuan/ton, and natural gas and coal fuel profits are around - 199 - 82 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - fired devices is 86 yuan/ton, natural - gas - fired devices is - 188 yuan/ton, and petroleum - coke - fired devices is - 85 yuan/ton [38][41]. 3.1.3 Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recent transactions were relatively stable, and inventory in most regions decreased slightly [44]. - Regional arbitrage: The price in East China decreased, and the regional price difference shrank [45]. 3.1.4 Photovoltaic Glass - Price and profit: Prices declined, recent orders decreased, shipments were average, and inventory increased. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, down 2.27% month - on - month; the 3.2mm coated mainstream order price is 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, down 2.63% month - on - month [53][55]. - Capacity and inventory: As the market weakens, it may enter a production - reduction cycle again. As of early July, the actual capacity is about 94,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 34.62 days, up 6.80% month - on - month [57][58][62]. 3.2 Soda Ash 3.2.1 Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash开工 changed little, and the potential maintenance volume is currently small. The capacity utilization rate is 81.32% (last week was 82.2%). The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 396,000 tons. With high production and high inventory, either manufacturers increase production - reduction efforts or the real - estate industry recovers to drive the demand for glass and soda ash. Currently, glass has great pressure and cannot increase the demand for soda ash [66][68]. - Inventory is about 1.81 million tons, with 805,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.005 million tons of heavy soda ash [69][70]. 3.2.2 Price and Profit - The prices in Shahe and Hubei are nominally around 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and prices changed little this week [76][80]. - Due to high production and high inventory, the near - month pressure is large. The basis is slightly strong, and the monthly spread is under pressure. The near - month pressure comes from delivery and trade pressure, and the fundamental factor is the weak glass market and high soda ash production [82][85]. - The joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 12.5 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China is - 62 yuan/ton [88]. - There are several planned and under - construction projects in the soda ash industry, such as the second - phase project of Yuanxing Energy with an expansion capacity of 2.8 million tons/year, planned to be put into production in the second half of 2025 [84].

Core Viewpoint - Sun Hongbin's appearance at the Sunac China shareholders' meeting marks a significant moment as it is his first in-person attendance since the company's financial difficulties, indicating a positive shift in the company's situation and confidence in future developments [2][3][7]. Debt Restructuring Progress - Sunac China has successfully completed the restructuring of its domestic debt, involving approximately 15.4 billion yuan, making it the first real estate company in the industry to achieve this [3][4]. - The company is currently undergoing a second restructuring of its offshore debt, with 75% of creditors supporting the plan, which aims to convert approximately 9.55 billion USD of debt into equity [3][4]. - The court hearing for the offshore debt restructuring is scheduled for September 15, which is a crucial step towards finalizing the plan [3]. Project and Asset Management - Sunac China has been actively working on revitalizing its residential projects and managing debts at the project level since last year, with a focus on individual strategies for each project [4][5]. - The company has successfully introduced funding for several key projects, including those in Chongqing, Beijing, Tianjin, and Wuhan, to mitigate existing debt risks and enhance asset value [5]. Delivery and Sales Performance - In 2024, Sunac China plans to deliver approximately 170,000 housing units across 84 cities, with a cumulative delivery of about 668,000 units over the past three years [6]. - The company aims to complete the delivery of 60,000 units in 2025, marking a significant milestone in its commitment to fulfilling delivery obligations [6]. - The Shanghai Bund No. 1 project has achieved remarkable sales, totaling over 17 billion yuan in 2025 alone, showcasing the company's ability to revitalize high-quality projects [6][7]. Future Outlook - Sun Hongbin expresses optimism for the company's performance in 2024, expecting it to surpass last year's results, with a reported contract sales amount of approximately 23.55 billion yuan in the first half of the year [8]. - The company plans to focus its efforts on core first- and second-tier cities, consolidating its resources to enhance operational efficiency and reduce leverage risks [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions taken by the Fuzhou Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau against China Merchants Bank Fuzhou Branch and AVIC Trust for their inadequate performance in ensuring the completion of housing projects, particularly in the context of the "guarantee delivery" initiative [2][4][5][7]. Group 1: China Merchants Bank Fuzhou Branch - The Fuzhou Municipal Housing Bureau issued a notice regarding the failure of China Merchants Bank Fuzhou Branch to fulfill its responsibilities in supervising pre-sale funds for the "Shimao Yunpu Mansion" project, which has not completed necessary work related to guaranteeing delivery [2][4]. - The bank was reported to have allowed the court to deduct 130 million yuan from the pre-sale funds supervision account shortly after the funds were deposited, despite prior warnings to avoid such actions [2][3]. - As a consequence of its actions, the bank has been suspended from engaging in new pre-sale fund supervision business in Fuzhou until it cooperates in completing the necessary follow-up work for the housing project [5][6]. Group 2: AVIC Trust - The Fuzhou Municipal Housing Bureau also issued a notice against AVIC Trust for its lack of action regarding the "Rongxin Jianglai" project, which has been delayed due to the trust's passive attitude towards financing efforts [7]. - AVIC Trust, holding a 60% stake in the project, has been criticized for its failure to engage in the "white list" financing process, which has negatively impacted the progress of the housing project and led to social unrest among homeowners [7]. - The Bureau emphasized that AVIC Trust's inaction contradicts the national policy aimed at ensuring housing delivery and maintaining social stability [7].