机构：信达国际 研究员：陈乐怡 第三季收入跌幅收窄，第四季旅遊旺季收入料重拾動能公司首三季收入為398.62 億元人民幣，按年跌 7.3%，純利為30.52億元人民幣，按年跌22.1%，單計第三季收入117.11 億元人民幣，按年微跌0.4%，跌 幅較上半年的10%收窄。海南離島免稅7 至9 月銷售額合計54.02 億元人民幣，按年跌2.6%，按年降幅較 4 至6 月收窄1.6 個百分點，其中9 月海南離島免稅月度銷售額按年增長3.4%，在同期低基數下錄得18 個月以來首次增長 ，公司第三季收入表現優於海南全島。海南旅遊旺季推動下，10 月至11 月離島免稅 銷售均錄雙位數按年增長，新增城市市內免稅店下半年集中開業，加上免稅政策利好，第四季收入料重 拾增長。 海南封關首月數據強勁，春節假期數據料成潛化劑海南自由貿易港自2025 年12 月18 日正式啟動全島封 關運作，免稅優惠對象擴大至所有自海南島離境的旅客，早期「離島免稅」主要面向從海南飛往內地其 他地區的旅客，重點是境內旅客，最新安排則可覆蓋國內外旅客。而每名海南居民在一年內有離島紀 錄，不限次數購買離島免稅商品，額度10 萬元人民幣，變相代購重臨，消費 ...

证券日报网讯 1月23日，国货航（001391）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，财政部等五部门于2025 年1月联合印发的《关于口岸进境免税店有关事宜的通知》，旨在进一步便利进境旅客免税购物消费， 充分发挥免税店支持提振消费的作用，促进免税商品零售业务健康有序发展。公司作为国内领先的航空 货运企业，主营业务聚焦于国际国内航空货物运输及相关物流服务。公司将密切关注政策落地进展及对 航空物流业的影响，并积极研究、把握相关市场机会。 ...

Group 1 - The company, Zhuhai Duty Free Group (600185), is closely monitoring the relevant duty-free policies following the closure operations in Hainan [1] - The company stated that it will conduct its business in accordance with the policy regulations [1] - If there are any future plans related to these policies, the company will strictly fulfill its information disclosure obligations in a timely manner [1]

Core Insights - The company has won bids for duty-free shops at Shanghai Pudong Airport T2 and S2 satellite hall, as well as at Shanghai Hongqiao Airport T1, with an operational period of 5+3 years from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2033 [1] Group 1: Project Details - The operational entity for the project is a joint venture between China Duty Free Group and Shanghai Airport, with China Duty Free holding a 51% stake and Shanghai Airport holding 49% [2] - The new contract stipulates a monthly fixed fee of 36.744 million, with commission rates for different categories ranging from 8% to 24% for segment two and 8% to 22% for segment three [3] Group 2: Financial Impact - The company is expected to experience a neutral impact from the new contract; while the reduction in operational scope at Pudong Airport may affect revenue, the overall effect on profit is anticipated to be smaller due to lower commission rates and the introduction of a sales incentive mechanism [4] - The company forecasts net profits of 3.72 billion, 3.89 billion, and 4.27 billion for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -13%, +4.6%, and +9.8% respectively, and corresponding EPS of 1.80, 1.88, and 2.06 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent policies have significantly enhanced the presence of domestic products in duty-free stores, transforming them into platforms for showcasing Chinese brands and cultural heritage [1][2]. Policy Developments - On October 17, the Ministry of Finance announced adjustments to the duty-free shopping policy for travelers in Hainan, allowing certain domestic products to be sold in duty-free stores [1]. - On October 30, a notification was released to support consumption by mandating that at least 25% of the sales area in duty-free stores be allocated for domestic products [1]. - On November 26, a plan was issued to promote the entry of high-quality domestic products and cultural heritage items into duty-free stores, along with optimizing the tax refund process for travelers [1]. Challenges for Domestic Products - Domestic products face three main challenges in establishing a foothold in the duty-free market: 1. Insufficient product adaptability to international consumer preferences and travel shopping scenarios [2]. 2. Weak bargaining power in distribution channels, with international brands dominating prime shelf space [2]. 3. Low brand recognition, as many domestic products lack a compelling international narrative, making it difficult to compete with established global brands [2]. Strategic Recommendations - Product positioning should focus on understanding international consumer preferences and optimizing designs to meet travel shopping needs, such as creating portable versions of cultural products [3]. - Deepening channel operations is crucial, including partnerships with leading duty-free operators and utilizing online booking combined with offline pickup to enhance consumer experience [3]. - Brand value should be communicated through immersive experiences in duty-free stores and leveraging international platforms to promote the cultural and innovative aspects of domestic products [3]. Conclusion - Duty-free channels provide a low-risk environment for domestic brands to test and showcase their products internationally, supported by favorable policies [4]. The success of domestic products in this space will depend on their product quality, channel management, and brand strength, marking a significant step in the evolution of Chinese brands and the economy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective adjustment in key indices, while the Hainan Free Trade Port concept saw significant gains, particularly benefiting the tourism sector as the closure date approaches [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On December 3rd, major A-share indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all faced adjustments [1] - The tourism ETF turned positive during trading, driven by the Hainan Free Trade Port concept [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The China Securities Tourism Theme Index, tracked by the tourism ETF, has approximately 26.87% exposure to the Hainan Free Trade Port concept and 29.76% to the duty-free shop concept, indicating potential benefits from the upcoming Hainan closure and duty-free policies [1] - The upcoming New Year holiday and the "longest" Spring Festival are expected to boost residents' travel intentions, positively impacting sectors such as airlines, airports, scenic spots, hotels, and duty-free shopping [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Wangfujing [1] Core Views - Q3 revenue decline has narrowed, and the company is expected to benefit from the tax-free policy by 2025 [8] - The company has actively laid out its tax-free business, which is anticipated to gain from the release of policy dividends [8] - The financial performance for Q3 shows a revenue of 2.35 billion yuan, down 4.7% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40 million yuan, down 68.2% year-on-year [8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Wangfujing are as follows: - 2023A: 12,224 million yuan - 2024A: 11,372 million yuan - 2025E: 10,973 million yuan - 2026E: 11,557 million yuan - 2027E: 12,180 million yuan [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as: - 2023A: 709.38 million yuan - 2024A: 268.58 million yuan - 2025E: 180.20 million yuan - 2026E: 428.22 million yuan - 2027E: 602.98 million yuan [1] - The report indicates a significant decrease in net profit margins, with a forecasted net profit margin of 1.8% for Q3, down 3.6 percentage points year-on-year [8] Market Data - The closing price of Wangfujing is 14.10 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 15.85 billion yuan [6] - The price-to-book ratio is reported at 0.81, indicating the stock is trading below its book value [6] Strategic Developments - The company has received approval for its tax-free operations and has launched several tax-free projects, including the Wangfujing International Tax-Free Port [8] - Recent policy changes have led to a 28.52% year-on-year increase in tax-free sales, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [8]

Company Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance and four other departments issued a notice on October 31, 2025, regarding the improvement of duty-free shop policies to boost consumption [2] - Shanghai Airport has recently initiated the bidding process for duty-free shop projects at Pudong and Hongqiao International Airports [2] Company Performance - The duty-free business is showing signs of improvement year-on-year, with the company reporting duty-free rental income of 314 million yuan in Q3 2025, an 18% increase compared to the previous year, marking the first positive growth since Q2 2024 [3] - The new duty-free policies from the Ministry of Finance are expected to provide additional growth opportunities for the company's duty-free business, allowing for a broader range of products to be sold at duty-free shops [3] - The new regulations permit the procurement of domestic goods for sale in duty-free shops, which will be treated as exports, exempting them from VAT and consumption tax [3] - The online sales channel may still face some pressure, but it could benefit the offline sales at port duty-free shops [3] Bidding Situation - The new bidding information indicates that certain terms may enhance the bargaining power of airports, allowing qualified domestic and reputable foreign companies to participate in the bidding process [3] - The bidding process divides different terminals at Pudong and Hongqiao airports into three segments, with restrictions on winning multiple segments [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 2.26 billion yuan and 2.73 billion yuan, respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 36.0 times and 29.7 times for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a target price of 34.5 yuan, indicating a 6% upside potential from the current price [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jianyin International has raised the target price for China Duty Free Group (01880) by 50% from HKD 60 to HKD 90, reflecting stronger profit growth momentum supported by favorable policies and better growth prospects. The rating remains "Outperform" [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, China Duty Free's net profit decreased by 29% year-on-year to RMB 452 million, which was below both Jianyin International's and market expectations [1] - Sales decline has narrowed compared to the previous quarter, with gross margin stabilizing around 32%-33% [1] - The expectation is that operational performance will gradually improve, supported by product and merchandise optimization, with gross margins likely to remain stable [1] Group 2: Market and Policy Environment - China has implemented several new duty-free policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption, enhancing tourism in Hainan Province, and expanding shopping channels for domestic and foreign consumers [1] - Preliminary data from Hainan Province indicates a positive response to these policies, suggesting that China Duty Free Group, as a leading duty-free retailer in the region, will be one of the main beneficiaries of the new policies [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the Hainan sector and sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the Spring Festival, indicating a positive medium-term outlook for new consumption growth, transformation recovery, overseas expansion, and policy benefits [3] Core Insights - Following the new gold tax policy, there has been a price increase in gold jewelry at retail terminals, highlighting the importance of brand strength and product quality [1][2] - The new tax policy differentiates between investment and non-investment uses of standard gold, affecting tax deductions and pricing strategies for retailers [2] - Major brands have raised their gold prices post-policy implementation, with increases ranging from 58 to 70 CNY per gram for leading brands [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The retail index increased by 0.31% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.77 percentage points [9] - The retail sector's performance ranked 17th among all sectors during this period [9] 2. Company Dynamics - Small Commodity City has acquired land for a cultural and commercial complex for 3.2 billion CNY [16] - West China Tourism plans to issue up to 30.61 million shares to raise no more than 300 million CNY for working capital and debt repayment [16] 3. Industry Dynamics - Xiaohongshu has obtained a payment license, indicating a significant development in the digital payment landscape [22] - Starbucks has partnered with Boyu Capital to expand its retail operations in China, aiming to increase the number of stores to 20,000 [22] - JD's global sales during the Double 11 event saw a transaction volume increase of over 300% in cross-border shipping areas [23]