牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家亚罗斯（Bernard Jaros）认为，正是11月被人为压低的价格基数，导 致12月 CPI 数据存在上行偏差。他称："对于核心商品而言，12月价格理应会出现小幅回升，这完全是 由11月的人为低基数造成的。政府停摆引发的混乱还影响了住房价格的数据采集工作 ——美国劳工统 计局在统计时，假定去年10月的租金价格没有发生任何变化。" 12月通胀率大概率走高，而关税预计将在上半年对商品价格形成上行压力。 美国劳工部将于周二发布去年12月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告。市场预计，受此前政府停摆引发的数 据采集中断余波影响，通胀率将小幅走高，并继续高于美联储设定的2%目标。 如果说最新美国非农就业报告表现尚可，足以让投资者相信，美联储不会在1月再度降息。居高难下的 通胀，或会进一步促使美联储按兵不动，而这可能让美国总统特朗普与美联储的紧张关系进一步升级。 市场对美联储降息的预期持续降温，市场对美联储在未来三次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上 降息25个基点的概率预期本周继续回落，1月会议降息概率几乎归零；4月会议降息概率从本月高位79% 降至40%。原本被广泛看好的6月也变得不明朗，概 ...

尽管面临美国关税压力和地缘紧张局势，印度政府预计本财年经济增速将超过7%，该国仍将保持全球 主要经济体中增长最快的地位。 印度仍是少数几个未与美国达成贸易协议的主要经济体之一，不确定性对经济前景构成压力。美国总统 特朗普去年8月对印度出口商品征收50%的关税，这是亚洲地区最高税率。 据新华社，美国总统特朗普1月4日警告，如果印度不按美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提 高对印度产品征收的关税。2025年8月，美国政府以印度进口俄罗斯石油为由，对印度输美商品加征惩 罚性关税。 关税重创了印度劳动密集型出口行业，包括纺织品、宝石珠宝和皮革制品。高盛集团预计，即使假设印 度与美国在3月前达成贸易协议，下一财年印度经济增速也将放缓至6.8%。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 1月7日，印度统计和计划实施部发布的预估数据显示，截至明年3月的财年国内生产总值预计增长 7.4%，略低于经济学家中值预期7.5%。最终数据将在财年结束后公布。值得注意的是， ...

Core Viewpoint - The survey indicates that CFOs in the U.S. expect a significant price increase of 4.2% by 2026, which challenges the Federal Reserve's prediction of inflation returning to around 2% [1][3][4] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - CFOs anticipate a price increase of 4.2% by 2026, with half of the surveyed companies expecting a rise of 3.5% or more [4] - The current inflation level is nearly 1 percentage point above the Federal Reserve's target, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 2: Concerns Over Tariffs and Costs - Tariffs and trade policies remain the top concern for CFOs, despite a slight easing of anxiety compared to earlier in the year [5][6] - CFOs expect unit costs to rise slightly more than prices, indicating that a 4.2% price increase may only barely cover rising costs [6] Group 3: Business Confidence and Economic Growth - Business optimism has declined, with the U.S. economic optimism index dropping from 62.9 to 60.2 [7] - Companies predict a modest employment increase of 1.7% and an economic growth rate of approximately 1.9% for 2026 [7] - Less than half of the companies are hiring new positions, with about 20% having no hiring plans and around 9% expecting layoffs [8]

Core Viewpoint - Philips (PHG.US) shares fell over 5% to $26.53 following comments from executives indicating that organic sales growth in 2026 is unlikely to double from approximately 2% last year, contrary to previous expectations of around 4.5% growth for 2026 [1] Group 1 - Executives at Philips have revised their expectations for organic sales growth in 2026, now projecting it to be around 2% instead of the previously anticipated 4.5% [1] - The management still expects an improvement in profit margins by 2026, despite the lowered sales growth forecast [1] - The company anticipates that tariff pressures will nearly double next year, adding to the challenges faced [1]

Core Insights - The industrial sector is facing challenges, as evidenced by Deere's earnings miss and subsequent 6% stock drop, with lowered guidance for the full year being particularly concerning for investors [2][3] - The U.S. industrial market is described as narrow, requiring careful selection of investments, especially in light of tariff pressures affecting global operations [3][4] Company Analysis: Deere - Deere's stock is trading at a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24, which is steep given its growth rate is not even at 20%, indicating potential overvaluation [7][8] - Management's prediction that 2026 will mark the bottom of the cycle is met with skepticism, as predicting business cycles can be challenging [9] Investment Opportunities - The defense sector is highlighted as a favorable area within the industrial space, with companies like Lockheed Martin being recommended [6][7] - Siemens is identified as a compelling investment opportunity due to its diversified operations and lower P/E ratio of 14, making it attractive compared to U.S. counterparts [11][13] - Hitachi is also mentioned as a strong candidate for investment, trading at a lower valuation relative to its growth potential, appealing to investors looking for international exposure [14][15] Market Trends - Overseas markets are outperforming the U.S. market, with European and Asian stocks showing broader rallies, suggesting a shift in investor focus towards international equities [11][17] - The anticipated "Santa Claus rally" is expected to be global, with significant potential for foreign stocks as investors begin reallocating their portfolios [13][16]

Core Viewpoint - KBW downgraded Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares from "Market Perform" to "Underperform" due to factors such as peak underwriting profit margins at GEICO, declining short-term interest rates, and tariff-related pressures [1] Group 1: Rating Changes - Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares and Class B shares fell by 0.79% and 0.82% respectively on Monday [1] - Analyst Meyer Shields expressed concerns that GEICO's underwriting profit margins may have peaked, alongside other pressures affecting the company's performance [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - KBW adjusted the target price for Berkshire Hathaway's Class A shares from $740,000 to $700,000 [1] - The 2025 EPS forecast was slightly increased from $31,725 to $31,750, while the 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts were reduced from $32,430 and $34,430 to $31,750 and $33,350 respectively [1] - The downward adjustments were attributed to expectations of reduced catastrophe losses in the property and casualty sector, declining investment income from insurance, slowing revenue growth in the railroad business, and potential reductions in energy tax credits [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Alberto Musalem, indicated potential support for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of the month, while emphasizing the need for cautious decision-making [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Decisions - Musalem stated that he could support a further reduction in policy interest rates if there are additional risks in the labor market and inflation remains under control [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on October 28-29, with market expectations leaning towards another 25 basis point cut following the previous cut on September 17 [1] Economic Outlook - There are expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower rates again by the end of the year, but Musalem cautioned against making premature predictions about future actions [1] - He highlighted that the task of controlling inflation is not yet complete and that the Federal Reserve must avoid any potential persistent inflation, which could arise from factors such as tariff pressures, reduced labor supply, and economic slowdown [1] Price Pressures - Musalem noted that tariffs are currently increasing price pressures and are expected to impact the economy over the next two to three quarters [1] - He also mentioned that the labor market may face greater pressures moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - RH, a luxury home furnishings retailer, has revised its full-year revenue growth forecast downward and reported disappointing Q2 results, leading to an 8% decline in stock price during after-hours trading [2][4] Revenue Analysis - RH's revenue increased by 8% year-over-year to $3.3 billion, with Q2 revenue also rising 8% to $899 million; however, over the past three years, revenue has experienced an average decline of 5% [5][6] - The company's performance is closely tied to the housing market, and ongoing high mortgage rates and sluggish home sales could lead to a decline in demand for luxury furniture, potentially causing revenues to stagnate or drop back to $3.0 billion [6][8] Margin Pressure - In the last twelve months, RH generated $324 million in operating income, resulting in a 9.9% operating margin, with a net income of $84 million, reflecting a modest 2.6% net margin [7] - Tariffs, inflation, and rising freight costs are exerting pressure on margins, which could decline from around 10% to mid-single digits, potentially halving earnings [7][8] Valuation Concerns - RH currently trades at $228 per share, with a high valuation of 58x earnings based on FY 2024 EPS of $3.92; if revenues plateau and margins decrease, earnings could drop to about $2.00–$3.00 per share [8][9] - A potential valuation adjustment could see the stock price fall to the $100–$120 range, representing a 50% decrease from current levels [8][9] Future Outlook - The transition to lower valuations and earnings may take two to four years to manifest, with upcoming Q3 results being crucial for investor sentiment [9] - Despite challenges, RH has strengths such as an affluent customer base, brand advantages, and potential growth opportunities in international markets and new categories [10]

Core Insights - Walmart Inc reported a profit of 68 cents per share, missing earnings estimates for the first time since 2022, while revenue reached $177.4 billion, exceeding expectations [1] - Despite tariff pressures, price concerns, and one-time expenses, strong U.S. and e-commerce sales led Walmart to raise its full-year sales and profit outlook [1] Stock Performance - The stock is down 4.3% to $98.15, breaking a three-day winning streak and falling below the $100 resistance level [2] - Year-to-date, Walmart's equity is still up 8.6% [2] Analyst Sentiment - A majority of analysts remain optimistic, with 36 out of 37 firms rating Walmart a "buy" or better [3] - The stock's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.98 indicates strong long-term sentiment, ranking higher than 87% of readings from the past year [3] Options Activity - Bearish activity has increased in the options market, with 114,000 puts exchanged, significantly above the intraday average [4] - The most popular contracts are the August 97-, 98-, and 92-strike puts, with positions opening at all three levels [4]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The US economy performed better than expected in the first half of the year, but rising tariffs may pressure consumer spending, a key growth driver [1][2] - The year-on-year growth rate in the US is expected to slow to 1.6% by the end of the year, remaining below trend levels through 2026 [2] - Inflation in the US is rising due to tariffs affecting prices, while Asian economies (excluding Japan) face slowing inflation due to weak growth and low oil prices [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 to 50 basis points by the end of the year, depending on inflation data, with most Asian central banks expected to ease policies in a low inflation environment [2] - The US dollar is projected to depreciate by 3% to 5% over the next 6 to 9 months, which may lead to a moderate appreciation of most Asian currencies [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The company prefers emerging markets and Asian stocks over the US market due to more attractive valuations and macroeconomic conditions [1][5] - US high-yield bonds remain attractive with a yield of 7%, while emerging market bonds offer upside potential due to dollar depreciation [1][5] - US Treasury bonds are viewed positively as they provide yield opportunities and can hedge against potential risks from slowing US economic growth [1][5] Group 4: Asset Allocation - The company has adopted a more positive tactical stance on risk assets, particularly stocks and credit, as the impact of tariffs is assessed to be less severe than previously thought [4] - Key indicators such as global purchasing managers' index and corporate earnings forecasts continue to support a positive short-term outlook [4]