目前，投资者对新兴市场信贷的热情似乎不高。尽管自2022年以来资金持续流出新兴市场信贷基金的趋 势似乎暂时停止，近期流入新兴市场债券基金的资金几乎全部集中在本币基金。投资者的信心和持仓似 乎仍保持在适中水平。新兴市场信贷年初至今获得不错收益，表现优于许多其他资产类别，例如美国的 投资级债券和高收益债券。整体而言，新兴市场主权信贷利差仅比今年2月多年以来的最低水平高出约 15个基点。考虑到宏观环境充满政策、政治和地缘政治不确定性，新兴市场主权信贷展现出非凡的韧 性。 尽管美国4月初在解放日宣布关税政策，表示对大多数经济体征收10%的关税，但最新数据显示，新兴 亚洲市场出口表现仍相对稳健。市场普遍认为，出口表现强劲主要源于贸易前置效应，不过各经济体的 具体情况存在差异。这种前置效应可能会持续至第二季度，随后在下半年出现回调。 巴克莱指，有迹象显示该地区核心通胀正上升。能源通胀则维持低位，与伦敦布兰特原油价格走低趋势 一致。然而，如果地缘政治紧张局势持续推高油价，通胀上升趋势应该不会持续。整体而言，对新兴亚 洲十大经济体2025年CPI通胀预测的简单平均值已降至1.5%，较2024年的2.2%有所回落。 巴克莱研究 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of global markets, particularly focusing on equities and fixed income, with insights into macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical factors affecting market dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights 1. **Market Performance**: The S&P 500 index has slightly declined, remaining 3% below its February highs, indicating mixed market sentiment influenced by macroeconomic data and geopolitical tensions [1][2]. 2. **Debt and Deficit Concerns**: There is a growing concern regarding debt sustainability, which is seen as a significant structural risk. The macro environment suggests that risky assets are still performing well despite these concerns [6][8]. 3. **US Economic Growth**: The US economy is projected to grow at approximately 1.25% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, indicating a deceleration but not a significant downturn. Consumer spending remains resilient despite uncertainties [12][13]. 4. **Equity Market Dynamics**: The equity market is perceived as reflecting future productivity growth driven by AI advancements. However, there are concerns about the quality of signals from certain tech stocks, particularly non-profitable ones [6][20]. 5. **Japanese Equities**: The outlook for Japanese equities is mixed, with potential for growth but also risks associated with rising bond yields. Japan has underperformed compared to Europe and China [21]. 6. **Chinese Shareholder Returns**: The trend of increasing shareholder returns has reached China, with a notable rise in dividend payout ratios. However, this is not seen as a strong enough reason to heavily invest in China [22][23]. Additional Important Points 1. **High Yield Bonds**: US high yield bonds have shown strong performance recently, with yields near three-month lows and minimal down days in the past 15 sessions [25]. 2. **M&A Activity**: Contrary to claims that the M&A market is dead, large-scale M&A activity has increased by approximately 15% year-over-year for deals over $500 million [27]. 3. **Gold and Silver Trends**: Gold prices have continued to rise despite increasing real interest rates, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics. Silver has also recently broken out [35][38]. 4. **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment around earnings has shown a V-shaped recovery globally, particularly in the US, reflecting improved earnings quality as the reporting season progressed [30]. Conclusion - The overall market sentiment remains cautious but optimistic, with significant attention on debt sustainability, economic growth projections, and evolving trends in equity markets. The interplay between macroeconomic factors and market performance will be crucial to monitor in the coming months [11][12][19].

施罗德发文称，第一季度，美国高收益债券市场表现出韧性，在更广泛的经济不确定性中，它并没有如 预期般出现严重下滑。虽然该资产类别的绝对回报为正值，但仍未产生高于无风险利率的超额回报，因 为高收益债券市场的回报率比存续期中性的美国国债的回报率低113个基点。在高收益债券领域，出现 了明显的分叉：BB级债券的表现优于较低评级债券。这结果反映出投资者为了应对经济不确定性而转 向优质债券类别。 证券化债券市场仍然以其复杂性和回报分散性见称。2025年第一季结束时，由于对美国关税的预期，利 率再度波动。这影响了按揭抵押证券 (Mortgage Backed Securities，简称"MBS")和资产抵押证券(Asset Backed Securities，简称"ABS")的整体表现。 在资产抵押证券方面，施罗德投资偏好优质汽车贷款结构，尽管对消费者偿还贷款能力恶化的忧虑日益 上升，但这种结构仍维持良好。次级贷款借款人，尤其是年轻族群的拖欠率较高，但优质 AAA评级的 资产抵押证券市场仍受到结构强化和承保的良好保护。 与此同时，美联储采取观望态度，暂时维持政策利率不变，同时表示将密切监控经济数据，并在必要时 作出反应。美 ...