Company and Industry Summary Company: 伟星股份 (Weixing Co., Ltd.) Key Points - **Domestic and Overseas Market Performance** - Domestic replenishment orders are significantly noticeable, while overseas markets maintain growth but at a slower pace. The fourth quarter is expected to outperform the third quarter, but revenue recognition may have timing discrepancies, necessitating attention to December's replenishment situation [2][6][7] - **Vietnam Industrial Park Development** - The Vietnam industrial park is progressing normally, with expectations of breakeven or profitability by the second half of 2026. However, production delivery capabilities and employee skills need improvement. There is strong customer interest in the Vietnam supply chain, but order transfers will take time, impacting future revenue expectations [2][5][8] - **Domestic Business Margins** - Domestic business gross margins remain stable, primarily relying on incremental orders from existing customers rather than new customer acquisition. The product structure is continuously changing, but overall gross margin levels are relatively stable, providing reference for investors [2][9] - **Credit Business Performance** - The credit business shows good growth but is still operating at a loss, with expectations for improvement in the next one to two years. The core drivers remain in the zipper and button business, which are expected to dominate growth in the next three to five years [2][10] - **Tariff Impact** - Tariff costs are shared across the supply chain, with minimal impact on auxiliary materials. The company frequently quotes prices rather than engaging in one-time negotiations, maintaining confidence in stable gross margins, which is valuable for investors [2][11][12] - **Internationalization Trends** - There is an increasing consensus on internationalization within the industry, with accelerated shifts of the supply chain to Southeast Asia. Although overseas competition is intensifying, it also presents more opportunities. Engagement with U.S. clients has increased, with ongoing price competition and small-batch trends remaining unchanged [2][13] - **Competitive Pricing and Market Position** - The company has a clear advantage in the supply chain, with prices lower than major competitor YK. However, significant price adjustments from suppliers are rare. The overall market is expected to face considerable pressure next year, with stable but slower growth anticipated due to the maturity of the apparel accessory industry [3][15][14] - **Future Demand and Growth Outlook** - The company remains optimistic about future demand, although it acknowledges potential pressures from consumer sentiment and investments in the Vietnam project. The apparel accessory industry is expected to grow steadily but at a slower rate than in previous years [15] - **Overseas Expansion Focus** - Future overseas expansion will focus on Vietnam and other Southeast Asian regions, with key clients including Nike, Adidas, and Uniqlo, although the depth of cooperation varies [16] - **Impact of Automation** - Automation is expected to positively influence overall operational quality but is unlikely to significantly enhance gross margins, as the company already operates at a high margin level [17] - **Employee Composition and Training in Vietnam** - The Vietnam factory currently employs around 600 people, primarily local staff, with a few key personnel dispatched from the domestic team. Improving local employee skills is crucial for future operational success [18][20][21] - **Order Fulfillment and Trends** - Recent order fulfillment timelines remain stable, with replenishment typically taking around ten days. Winter orders are expected to dominate until January, with some spring orders already received, albeit in smaller quantities [22][23] - **Taxation and Currency Impact** - The company benefits from a 15% tax incentive, while other operations are subject to a standard 25% tax rate. The Vietnamese operations enjoy tax incentives as well. Currency fluctuations have not significantly impacted the company [25] - **Challenges in Vietnam Operations** - The Vietnam operations face challenges in production delivery capabilities and employee skill levels compared to domestic and Bangladeshi teams. Local supply chain efficiency also needs improvement, but these issues are expected to gradually resolve over time [8][20] - **Financial Performance and Losses** - The Vietnam base incurred a loss of approximately 16 million yuan in the first half of the year, primarily due to exchange losses. The total annual loss is projected to be around 20 million yuan, but operational losses are expected to decrease as orders increase [27] - **Inventory and Sales Impact** - Last year's warm winter led to inventory buildup, affecting sales. The company has a short order cycle of about half a month to a month, and while feedback for the upcoming year is increasing, it remains modest. Overall market sentiment appears more positive than before [28]

Core Insights - The proportion of Japanese companies prioritizing mainland China as a production base has decreased to 16.2%, down 7.6 percentage points from the previous survey in 2019, indicating concerns over US-China tariff negotiations and geopolitical risks [2][4] - The overall percentage of Japanese companies establishing production or sales bases overseas has dropped to 18.3%, a decline of 6.4 percentage points compared to pre-COVID levels [4] Group 1: Production Base Preferences - After mainland China, the next most prioritized locations for production bases are Vietnam (7.9%), Thailand (5.3%), and Taiwan (2.7%) [6] - The survey indicates a significant shift in focus away from China for production, reflecting broader trends in global supply chain adjustments [2][6] Group 2: Sales Base Preferences - Mainland China remains the top choice for sales bases at 12.3%, but this represents a decline of 13.6 percentage points from the last survey [6] - The United States ranks second for sales bases at 8.2%, followed by Thailand at 6.2%, highlighting a shift in market focus [6] Group 3: Impact of Tariff Negotiations - 13.5% of surveyed companies reported that US tariff negotiations had a "significant impact" on their overseas operations, including adjustments to locations and market exits [6] - 42.5% of companies acknowledged "some degree of impact," citing increased costs and the need to revise local procurement strategies [6]

Core Insights - Richemont, the owner of Cartier, reported better-than-expected quarterly sales, indicating strong performance in the luxury sector [1] Company Summary - The Geneva-based luxury group is currently awaiting the outcome of tariff negotiations between Switzerland and the United States, which could impact future sales and operations [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper: After Sino-US negotiations, the copper price dropped to test the 10-day moving average support. The downstream copper开工 rate declined further, but the inventory decreased slightly. Considering the potential medium - scale delivery of LME copper in the near future, maintain a callback - buying strategy and pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1] - Aluminum: With good domestic apparent demand, high proportion of molten aluminum, de - stocking of aluminum ingots and various aluminum products, and supply disruptions overseas, the price is pushed up. In the long - term with low inventory, it is advisable to hold on dips [1] - Zinc: The zinc price fluctuated upward this week. The supply of domestic and imported TC is accelerating its decline. The demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. Although the domestic fundamentals are poor, there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. Pay attention to anti - arbitrage opportunities and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [2] - Nickel: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating both at home and abroad. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end and a motivation to support prices on the policy side, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [3] - Stainless Steel: The supply from steel mills increased slightly in October. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The cost of ferronickel and ferrochrome remains stable, and the inventory is at a high level. With a motivation to support prices on the Indonesian policy side, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [7] - Lead: The lead price dropped due to downstream production cuts this week. The supply of scrap is weak, and the recovery of recycled lead production is slow. The demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly next week, and it is advisable to observe the resumption of recycled production and the increase of warehouse receipts [8] - Tin: The tin price fluctuated this week. The supply is marginally recovering, and the demand is mainly rigid. In the short - term, it follows the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, it is advisable to hold on dips near the cost line [8][10] - Industrial Silicon: The supply of industrial silicon will decline in the fourth quarter, but considering the maintenance of polysilicon enterprises, the supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, it will fluctuate at the cycle bottom [11] - Lithium Carbonate: Affected by the rumor of mine resumption in Jiangxi, the lithium carbonate price dropped rapidly on Friday. The supply side has strong price - support motivation, and the demand side is mainly in a wait - and - see state. If the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market: The market is dominated by tariff negotiation progress. After Sino - US negotiations, the copper price dropped [1] - Fundamentals: Downstream copper开工 rate declined, but inventory decreased slightly. Pay attention to the impact of stricter scrap copper policies on the substitution of refined copper [1] - Strategy: Maintain a callback - buying strategy, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,300 or gradually building virtual inventory [1] Aluminum - Market: Domestic apparent demand is good, and overseas supply is disrupted [1] - Fundamentals: High proportion of molten aluminum, de - stocking of aluminum ingots and various aluminum products [1] - Strategy: Hold on dips in the long - term with low inventory [1] Zinc - Market: The zinc price fluctuated upward this week [2] - Fundamentals: Supply of domestic and imported TC is declining. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and average overseas. Social inventory is fluctuating domestically, and LME inventory is decreasing overseas [2] - Strategy: Although the domestic fundamentals are poor, the price may not fall deeply at the end of the year. Pay attention to anti - arbitrage opportunities and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [2] Nickel - Market: Short - term fundamentals are weak [3] - Fundamentals: Supply of pure nickel is high, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating both at home and abroad [3] - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities with disturbances in the Indonesian mining end and policy support motivation [3] Stainless Steel - Market: Fundamentals are weak [7] - Fundamentals: Supply from steel mills increased slightly in October, demand is mainly rigid, cost is stable, and inventory is high [7] - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities with policy support motivation in Indonesia [7] Lead - Market: The lead price dropped due to downstream production cuts [8] - Fundamentals: Supply of scrap is weak, recycled lead production recovery is slow, demand is expected to weaken, and the spot is still in short supply [8] - Strategy: Observe the resumption of recycled production and the increase of warehouse receipts, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 17,200 - 17,500 [8] Tin - Market: The tin price fluctuated this week [8] - Fundamentals: Supply is marginally recovering, and demand is mainly rigid [8][10] - Strategy: Follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term, and hold on dips near the cost line in the long - term [8][10] Industrial Silicon - Market: Supply will decline in the fourth quarter, and supply - demand is balanced and slightly loose [11] - Fundamentals: Xinjiang enterprises' production is stable, and Sichuan and Yunnan's production will decrease in the dry season [11] - Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [11] Lithium Carbonate - Market: The price dropped on Friday due to the rumor of mine resumption [11] - Fundamentals: Supply side has strong price - support motivation, and demand side is in a wait - and - see state [11] - Strategy: The long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years if demand conditions are met [11]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The copper market is influenced by tariff negotiation progress. With tight supply at the mine end and growing infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained. Attention should be paid to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. - The domestic apparent demand for aluminum is good, with high proportion of molten aluminum and inventory reduction. With improved Sino - US economic and trade relations and better demand, a long - term strategy of holding on dips is recommended [1]. - The zinc price fluctuates upward. The supply side has tightening issues, and the demand side is seasonally weak domestically and has some production resistance overseas. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. - The supply of nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. With continuous disturbances at the Indonesian mine end and potential price - supporting policies, short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [3]. - The lead price drops due to downstream production cuts. Supply and demand are in a tight mismatch, and it is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly next week, with a recommended cautious approach [7]. - The tin price fluctuates. The supply side has marginal improvement, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigidity. In the short term, it is recommended to follow the macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, buy on dips near the cost line [8]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, but the supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate drops on Friday due to rumors. With strong support from the supply side and potential demand changes, the medium - to - long - term pattern may change in 1 - 2 years [9]. - For stainless steel, the supply increases slightly in October, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high [12]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market prices and related indicators such as spot price, premium, inventory, and import profit are presented from October 30 to November 5, 2025. The overall copper price has a downward test, downstream开工 further declines, and inventory shows a slight de - stocking pattern [1]. Aluminum - Data on aluminum ingot prices, alumina prices, inventory, and other indicators are provided from October 30 to November 5, 2025. Domestic apparent demand is good, and overseas supply has production - halt disturbances [1]. Zinc - Information on zinc prices, inventory, import profit, and other aspects is given from October 30 to November 5, 2025. The zinc price fluctuates upward, with supply - side tightening and demand - side weakness [2]. Nickel - Data on nickel ore, high - nickel iron, nickel prices, and inventory are shown from October 30 to November 5, 2025. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating [3]. Lead - Information on lead prices, inventory, and import profit is presented from October 30 to November 5, 2025. The lead price drops due to downstream production cuts, and supply - demand is in a tight situation [7]. Tin - Data on tin import and export earnings, inventory, and other indicators are provided from October 30 to November 5, 2025. The tin price fluctuates, with supply - side marginal improvement and demand - side rigidity [7][8]. Industrial Silicon - Information on industrial silicon basis and warehouse receipts is given from October 30 to November 5, 2025. The supply is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and the supply - demand is balanced and slightly loose [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Data on lithium carbonate prices, basis, and warehouse receipts are presented from October 30 to November 5, 2025. The price drops on Friday due to rumors, and the medium - to - long - term pattern may change [9]. Stainless Steel - Information on stainless steel product prices is provided from October 30 to November 5, 2025. Supply increases slightly, demand is rigid, costs are stable, and inventories are high [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views - Overall, in the context of continued tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, maintain a strategy of buying on dips for copper; for aluminum, hold on dips in the long - term due to good domestic apparent demand and potential overseas supply disruptions; for zinc, with poor domestic fundamentals but potential supply reduction at the end of the year, suggest a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between December and February; for nickel and stainless steel, due to weak fundamentals and potential policy support in Indonesia, look for short - selling opportunities; for lead, expect narrow - range oscillations in lead prices and suggest cautious operation; for tin, follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and hold on dips in the medium - to - long - term; for industrial silicon, expect price oscillations in the short - term and cycle - bottom oscillations in the medium - to - long - term; for lithium carbonate, the price may change in the medium - to - long - term if certain demand conditions are met [1][2][3][7][8][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market行情受关税谈判进展主导，中美谈判后铜价回落测试10日均线支撑 [1] - 下游开工回落，高价下维持刚需接货，库存小幅去化略超预期，关注废铜政策对精废替代的影响 [1] - 听闻部分矿山在1.1w美金价位入场保值，伦铜近期可能有中等量级交仓到货，短期情绪或转冷静 [1] - 维持回调买入思路，关注伦铜1.03w美金附近支撑，可考虑卖1.03w以下看跌期权或逐步建立虚拟库存 [1] Aluminum - 国内表需好，铝水比例高，铝锭与铝材去库，海外供给有停产扰动推动价格上行 [1] - 中美经贸关系好转，美联储降息后停止缩表，需求边际好转 [1] - 低库存下长期以逢低持有为主 [1] Zinc - 本周锌价震荡上行，供应端国产和进口TC加速下滑，四季度至明年一季度国产矿边际走紧，11月火烧云锌锭投产但增量兑现待考察 [2] - 需求端内需季节性疲软，海外欧洲需求一般，部分炼厂生产有阻力，国内社库震荡，海外LME库存去化，出口窗口打开 [2] - 国内基本面现实较差，但年底供应端有阶段性减量，价格重心难深跌，短期单边建议观望，关注反套和12 - 02月差正套机会 [2] Nickel - 供应端纯镍产量高位维持，需求端整体偏弱，升水平稳，库存端国内外持续累库，短期基本面偏弱 [3] - 印尼矿端扰动持续，政策端有挺价动机，关注逢高空配机会 [3] Stainless Steel - 供应端钢厂10月排产环比小幅增加，需求端以刚需为主，成本方面镍铁、铬铁价格维持，库存高位维持 [7] - 印尼政策端有挺价动机，关注逢高空配机会 [7] Lead - 本周铅下游减产致铅价下跌，供应侧报废量同比偏弱，再生利润恢复激励复产但进度慢，精矿开工增加但供应紧张 [8] - 需求侧电池开工率下滑，成品库存高，需求有走弱预期，精废价差变化，再生复产出料 [8] - 预计下周内外铅价在17200 - 17500区间窄幅震荡，建议观望再生复产和仓单增加情况谨慎操作 [8] Tin - 本周锡价震荡，供应端矿端加工费低位，云锡检修结束，海外佤邦产出有分歧，印尼短期部分停产 [10] - 需求端高价下由刚性支撑，下游接单心理价位提高，海外LME库存低位震荡恢复 [10] - 国内基本面短期供需双弱，短期跟随宏观情绪，若宏观有系统性风险锡价下行空间大，中长期贴近成本线逢低持有 [10] Industrial Silicon - 本周新疆头部企业开工稳定，后续川滇开工数量将减少，枯水期供给环比下滑，但Q4供需处于平衡偏宽松状态，月度累库约3万吨 [11] - 短期价格预计震荡运行，中长期价格走势预计以季节性边际成本为锚的周期底部震荡为主 [11] Lithium Carbonate - 本周五受江西矿山复产传闻影响价格快速回落，原料端海外矿端挺价，市场可流通精矿现货偏紧 [11] - 锂盐端企业惜售，市场低价货源少，期现商难补库，下游在价格上行时观望，回调后买盘增强 [11] - 基差调整有限，成交集中在01 - 400至01 + 0元区间，若储能需求高景气且动力需求稳定，中长期格局转变时点可能在未来1 - 2年出现 [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. - For aluminum, with good domestic apparent demand, high proportion of molten aluminum, de - stocking of aluminum ingots and various aluminum products, and supply disruptions overseas, hold long - term on dips due to the low inventory [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the spread between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but there are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian mining end and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [3]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,200 - 17,500. It is recommended to wait and see the resumption of secondary lead production and the increase of warehouse receipts [6]. - For tin, in the short - term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systematic macro risk, the tin price has a large downward space; in the long - term, hold on dips near the cost line [7]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [8]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of "anti - involution", the price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances are realized, and there is strong downward support before that. If the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [8]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - Market sentiment was dominated by tariff negotiation progress this week. After the China - US negotiation, the bullish news was digested, and the copper price tested the support of the 10 - day moving average. The downstream copper开工 rate decreased, but the inventory showed a slight de - stocking pattern [1]. - Some mines were reported to enter the market for hedging at the price of $11,000. There may be medium - sized deliveries of LME copper in the near future [1]. Aluminum - Domestic apparent demand was good, the proportion of molten aluminum was at a high level, and both aluminum ingots and various aluminum products were de - stocking. Overseas supply was affected by potential production stoppages [1]. - The improvement of China - US economic and trade relations and the Fed's decision to stop balance - sheet reduction led to a marginal improvement in demand [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillated upward this week. The treatment charges (TC) for domestic and imported zinc concentrates accelerated their decline. The domestic zinc concentrate supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year [2]. - The Huoshaoyun zinc ingot officially started production in November, with an expected monthly output of 8,000 - 10,000 tons. The total supply is expected to increase by about 8,000 tons month - on - month, but the market acceptance needs further observation [2]. - Domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe was average. Some overseas smelters faced production difficulties due to processing fees. The domestic social inventory oscillated, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak, and the premiums were stable recently. Both domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate [3]. - There were continuous disturbances at the Indonesian mining end, and the policy side had the motivation to support prices [3]. Lead - The lead price declined this week due to the production cut of downstream lead users. The supply of scrap lead was weak year - on - year, and the recovery of secondary lead production was slow [6]. - The demand for lead batteries decreased, and the finished - product inventory was high. The supply - demand mismatch was serious, and the spot premium in Hunan continued to rise [6]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 75, and the five - region social inventory was at a historical low of 29,800 tons. The spot tightness was not significantly relieved [6]. Tin - The tin price oscillated this week. The processing fees at the mining end were at a low level, and the supply improved marginally after the maintenance of Yunnan Tin ended [6][7]. - There were differences in the output of the Wa State in Myanmar, and the Indonesian tin exports may recover to normal in 2026, but there were short - term production stoppages due to anti - smuggling efforts [7]. - The demand was mainly supported by rigidity at high prices, and the overseas LME inventory oscillated at a low level and recovered [7]. Industrial Silicon - The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was stable, and the number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season. The supply - demand of industrial silicon in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of about 30,000 tons [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price dropped rapidly on Friday due to the rumor of the resumption of production of Jiangxi mines. The overseas mines firmly supported the price, and the market supply of concentrated ore was tight [8]. - Lithium salt producers were reluctant to sell due to inventory reduction and high downstream开工 rates. The downstream was mainly in a wait - and - see attitude, and the trading volume above 80,000 yuan was small [8]. Stainless Steel - The steel mills' production plan in October increased slightly month - on - month. The demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remained stable [11]. - The inventory was at a high level, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The fundamentals were generally weak [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the ongoing tightness in the mining end and the growth in infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper and consider selling put options below $10,300 or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, with good domestic apparent demand, high proportion of molten aluminum, de - stocking of aluminum ingots and various aluminum products, and supply disruptions overseas, hold long - term on dips [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals but potential short - term supply reduction at the end of the year, the price may not fall deeply. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [2]. - For nickel, with a weak short - term fundamental situation and continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end, look for opportunities to short on rallies [3]. - For lead, expect the domestic and overseas lead prices to maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week. It is recommended to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of secondary lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [7]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systemic risk in the macro - environment, the tin price may decline significantly. In the long - term, buy on dips near the cost line [8]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [9]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of "anti - involution", the price has high elasticity after supply - side disturbances are realized, and strong downward support before the disturbances. If the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the long - term pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [9]. - For stainless steel, with a generally weak fundamental situation and potential price - supporting motivation from Indonesian policies, look for opportunities to short on rallies [13]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed from - 35 to 0, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased by 82, and the LME inventory decreased by 325 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is dominated by tariff negotiation progress. The overall copper price has declined, and the downstream copper开工 has further decreased. The de - stocking of inventory is slightly better than expected. Consider the impact of the tightening of scrap copper policies on scrap - refined substitution. There may be medium - scale deliveries of LME copper in the near future, and the short - term sentiment may turn calm [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 80, the domestic alumina price decreased by 1, and the SHFE aluminum social inventory decreased by 4,594 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic apparent demand is good, the proportion of molten aluminum is high, and there is de - stocking. Overseas supply is facing disruptions. The improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations and the Fed's policy adjustment have led to a marginal improvement in demand [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the spot premium of zinc remained at - 40, the SHFE zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 400 [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price has oscillated upward. The supply of domestic and imported TC is accelerating downward, and the domestic mining supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. The export window has opened, and there has been some delivery overseas [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the SHFE nickel spot price decreased by 350, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventories at home and abroad are continuously increasing. There are continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end [3]. Lead - **Market Data**: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the spot premium of lead remained at - 210, the social inventory decreased by 334, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,875 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The lead price has declined due to downstream production cuts. The supply of secondary lead is recovering slowly, and the demand for batteries is weakening. The supply - demand mismatch is serious, and the spot is still in short supply [7]. Tin - **Market Data**: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the LME C - 3M of tin changed from 100 to 40, and the LME inventory increased from 2,725 to 2,875 [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: The tin price has oscillated. The processing fee at the mining end is at a low level, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas production is still uncertain, and the demand is mainly supported by rigidity [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 55, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 55, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 157 [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season. In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 550, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 550, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20 [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The overseas mining end is firm in price - holding, the market supply of concentrated ore is tight, and the lithium salt producers are reluctant to sell. The downstream is mostly on the sidelines, and the buying is strong after the price correction on Friday [9]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From October 27 to 31, 2025, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 50 [13]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel mills' production in October increased slightly month - on - month, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is at a high level. The Indonesian policies may support the price [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, maintain a buy - on - pullback strategy due to continued tightness in the ore end and growing infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Consider selling put options below $10,300 on LME copper or gradually building virtual inventories [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and long - term holding on dips is recommended while keeping an eye on terminal demand [1]. - For zinc, in the face of increased macro uncertainty, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For internal - external spreads, gradually take profits on internal - external positive spreads and watch for far - month reverse spreads. For monthly spreads, focus on the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, with increased short - term macro uncertainty and some price - support motivation from Indonesian policies [3]. - For lead, it is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly between 17,300 and 17,700 next week. It is recommended to wait and see the resumption of recycled production and the increase in warehouse receipts before operating cautiously [6]. - For tin, in the short term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systematic macro risk, the tin price may have a large downside. In the long - term, buy on dips near the cost line [10]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom anchored by the seasonal marginal cost [13][15]. - For lithium carbonate, no specific investment strategy is given in the report. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Market sentiment is dominated by tariff negotiation progress and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan. There are still supply disturbances in scrap copper in Anhui and other places, and the uncertainty of scrap copper supply will continue to increase in the fourth quarter and next year [1]. - Overseas, the export window has opened, but no inventory delivery has been observed. The divergence between the start - up rates of copper and aluminum cables is obvious, and attention should be paid to whether the start - up rate stabilizes [1]. Aluminum - The operating capacity remains flat. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased significantly in September. There is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars, but the post - holiday inventory reduction is considerable, and the apparent demand is rising [1]. - The global economic recovery is showing signs, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is strengthening. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations has deepened, and some European electrolytic aluminum plants have reduced production due to equipment failures [1]. Zinc - Supply: Domestic and imported TC are showing a downward trend. Domestic mines will be marginally tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while overseas mines had an unexpected increase in the second quarter. In October, smelting has slightly recovered, and attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2]. - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and European demand is average. Some overseas smelters face production resistance due to processing fees [2]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory is oscillating, and overseas LME inventory is decreasing. The export window has opened, and some smelters and traders are preparing for exports [2]. Nickel - Supply: The production of pure nickel remains at a high level. - Demand: Overall demand is weak, and the premium has been stable recently. - Inventory: Both domestic and overseas inventories are accumulating [3]. Stainless Steel - Supply: Steel mills' production schedules in October have increased slightly compared to the previous month. - Demand: Demand is mainly driven by rigid needs. - Cost: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. - Inventory: Inventory remains at a high level, and warehouse receipts are stable [3]. Lead - Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. The recovery of recycled lead profits has encouraged resumption of production, but the progress is slow. There is a serious supply - demand mismatch, and the spot premium in Hunan has been rising [6]. - Demand: The battery start - up rate has increased this week, and the expectation of weakening demand has been reversed. The refined - scrap spread is - 75, and the lead ingot spot premium is 15 [6]. - Inventory: The five - region social inventory is at a historical low of 31,900 tons, and the spot tightness has not eased [6]. Tin - Supply: The processing fee at the mine end is at a low level. The output of overseas Wa State is still controversial, and some mines and smelters in Indonesia have shut down [10]. - Demand: Demand is mainly supported by rigidity at high prices, and the downstream's psychological price for orders has increased [10]. - Inventory: Overseas LME inventory is oscillating and recovering at a low level [10]. Industrial Silicon - Supply: The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable. The number of start - ups in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season, and the overall supply of industrial silicon will decline month - on - month [13][15]. - Demand: Considering the maintenance of leading polysilicon enterprises, the supply - demand in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of 40,000 - 50,000 tons [13][15]. Lithium Carbonate - The prices of SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate have both increased by 850 yuan. The basis of the main and near - month contracts has changed, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased by 116 [15].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no specific investment rating for the entire industry provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market is influenced by tariff negotiation progress and the 15th Five - Year Plan. For copper, maintain a callback - buying strategy considering the tight supply at the mine end and increasing demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and hold at low prices in the long - term. For zinc, with export opportunities but poor domestic fundamentals, it's advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to different arbitrage opportunities. For nickel, due to weak fundamentals and uncertain policies, it's better to wait and see. For stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak with uncertain macro and policy support. For lead, prices are expected to oscillate narrowly, and it's necessary to observe the resumption of production and increase in warehouse receipts. For tin, follow the macro sentiment in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term. For industrial silicon, prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. For lithium carbonate, the analysis of industrial silicon also applies as the relevant supply and demand situation is similar [1][2][3][6][10][13][16]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Market influenced by tariff negotiation and 15th Five - Year Plan. Anhui's scrap copper supply has disturbances, and the uncertainty will increase in Q4 and next year. Overseas, there is no sign of warehouse delivery despite the opened export. Copper cable and aluminum cable have different starts. Maintain a callback - buying strategy, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,300 or building virtual inventory gradually [1]. Aluminum - Operating capacity is flat. PV module production is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased. There is seasonal inventory accumulation during holidays and significant destocking after holidays. The global economy shows signs of recovery, but Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, and a European electrolytic aluminum plant has reduced production. Short - term fundamentals are okay, and hold at low prices in the long - term [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated upward this week. Domestic and imported TC are declining. Domestic mines will be tighter from Q4 to Q1 next year, while overseas mines had an unexpected increase in Q2. The smelting end has a slight recovery in October. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while overseas LME inventory is decreasing. The export window is open. It's advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, gradually take profit on long - short arbitrage, and pay attention to far - month reverse arbitrage and 12 - 02 positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing. There are continuous disturbances in Indonesia's mines, and the policy has a motivation to support prices. It's better to wait and see [3]. Stainless Steel - Steel mills' production in October increased slightly. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome are stable. Inventory remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are weak with uncertain macro and policy support [3]. Lead - Lead prices increased due to spot shortages. Supply from scrap is weak, and the resumption of production of recycled lead is slow. The demand for batteries has increased, and the expected weakening of demand has reversed. The tight supply situation continues due to the lower - than - expected resumption of recycled lead production. Prices are expected to oscillate narrowly between 17,300 - 17,700, and it's necessary to observe the resumption of production and increase in warehouse receipts [6]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated this week. The processing fee at the mine end is low, and the supply has marginally recovered after the end of Yunnan Tin's maintenance. Overseas production has uncertainties. Demand is mainly rigid at high prices. The domestic fundamentals are in a state of weak supply and demand. Follow the macro sentiment in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [10]. Industrial Silicon - The production of leading enterprises in Xinjiang is stable, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease. In Q4, the supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state with a monthly inventory accumulation of 4 - 5 million tons. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The situation is similar to industrial silicon. The supply - demand in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [16].