越南贸易部长表示，该国愿意增加美国商品采购，特别是机械和高科技产品。本周，越南与美国的第六 轮关税谈判在华盛顿启动。 ...

的。另外，欧盟和印度签署贸易和安全协议，主要目的之一就是希望向该国出口更多飞机大炮。结果，美印贸易协议这么一签，美制武器的 涌入，将对欧盟武器在印度市场形成影响。 美印贸易纠纷，因印度的莫迪政府无法承受本国农民因此受到的冲击，一直坚守拒绝对美开放印度农产品大门的底线，进而引发美印关税 战。不过，是世事难料，当外界认为印度在与欧盟签署贸易和防务协议，以及对华关系改善之后，会跟美国死扛到底之际，谁曾想到，莫迪 突然患了"软骨病"，向美国下跪了。 最新消息显示，特朗普日前表示，他将把针对印度商品的"对等"关税税率从25%下调至18%，最后还来一句"即日起生效"。这似乎显示，印度 和美国之间的关税谈判取得进展，但这并不代表印度"赢了"，而随着有关细节的披露，给外界一种最直观的感觉，就是莫迪向特朗普下跪 了！为啥这样说呢？要知道，美国之前在征收印度25%的所谓"对等关税"后，还因为印度当时拒绝停止购买俄油，被加征25%的惩罚性关税， 美国对印加征的税率总共为50%。这就意味着，印度产品对美出口，还需被美国征收43%的关税。 为了美国豁免7%的关税，印度付出的代价也未免太大了吧！据媒体报道，作为回应，印度也将相应地降低对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of tariffs taking effect on February 1 is low due to the Supreme Court's ruling and other factors, although it is not entirely impossible [1] Group 1 - Josh Lipsky, Chairman of International Economic Affairs at the Atlantic Council, indicates that it is unclear what concessions Europe might make to secure a delay, similar to previous tariff negotiations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Taiwan's central bank will shift from biannual to quarterly disclosures of foreign exchange market interventions starting January, aiming to enhance transparency and reduce speculative activities that have led to significant fluctuations in the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) [2][4][6]. Group 1: Central Bank's Actions - The central bank's decision to increase the frequency of disclosures is in response to pressures from the US and Europe, which have accused Taiwan of intentionally devaluing the NTD [4][6]. - The first quarterly report will cover intervention activities from July to September 2025, aligning Taiwan with international standards [4]. Group 2: Economic Context - Taiwan's economy is heavily reliant on exports, with export dependency reaching approximately 60% of its GDP, significantly higher than Japan's 20% and South Korea's 40% [6]. - TSMC's CEO noted that a 1% appreciation of the NTD results in a 0.4 percentage point decrease in operating profit margins, highlighting the sensitivity of the export-driven economy to currency fluctuations [6]. Group 3: US-Taiwan Relations - The US has expressed concerns over Taiwan's trade surplus with the US, which reached a record $64.8 billion in 2024, primarily driven by semiconductors [6][8]. - The US Treasury has warned Taiwan against targeting specific exchange rate levels and emphasized that market interventions should only be considered in response to excessive volatility [6]. Group 4: Market Perception and Predictions - The Economist magazine indicated that the NTD is undervalued by 55% against the US dollar, suggesting that Taiwan is in a "Taiwan disease" state of deliberately keeping its currency low to maintain export competitiveness [8][9]. - Taiwan's economic performance is projected to be strong in 2025, with an expected real GDP growth rate of 7.37%, the highest in 15 years, followed by a forecast of 3.54% for 2026 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia is expected to complete tariff negotiations with the United States by the end of this year, with a delegation set to travel to Washington D.C. for further discussions [1][2] Group 1: Negotiation Progress - Indonesia's chief negotiator, Airlangga, stated that an agreement reached in the July 22 "Leaders' Declaration" will be finalized [1][2] - A U.S. official indicated that the trade agreement is at risk of breaking due to Indonesia's previous inconsistencies in commitments [1][2] Group 2: Tariff Changes - Indonesia has agreed to eliminate tariffs on over 99% of U.S. goods and remove all non-tariff barriers faced by U.S. companies [1][2] - As a result of these agreements, tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Indonesian products have decreased from 32% to 19% [1][2]

Company and Industry Summary Company: 伟星股份 (Weixing Co., Ltd.) Key Points - **Domestic and Overseas Market Performance** - Domestic replenishment orders are significantly noticeable, while overseas markets maintain growth but at a slower pace. The fourth quarter is expected to outperform the third quarter, but revenue recognition may have timing discrepancies, necessitating attention to December's replenishment situation [2][6][7] - **Vietnam Industrial Park Development** - The Vietnam industrial park is progressing normally, with expectations of breakeven or profitability by the second half of 2026. However, production delivery capabilities and employee skills need improvement. There is strong customer interest in the Vietnam supply chain, but order transfers will take time, impacting future revenue expectations [2][5][8] - **Domestic Business Margins** - Domestic business gross margins remain stable, primarily relying on incremental orders from existing customers rather than new customer acquisition. The product structure is continuously changing, but overall gross margin levels are relatively stable, providing reference for investors [2][9] - **Credit Business Performance** - The credit business shows good growth but is still operating at a loss, with expectations for improvement in the next one to two years. The core drivers remain in the zipper and button business, which are expected to dominate growth in the next three to five years [2][10] - **Tariff Impact** - Tariff costs are shared across the supply chain, with minimal impact on auxiliary materials. The company frequently quotes prices rather than engaging in one-time negotiations, maintaining confidence in stable gross margins, which is valuable for investors [2][11][12] - **Internationalization Trends** - There is an increasing consensus on internationalization within the industry, with accelerated shifts of the supply chain to Southeast Asia. Although overseas competition is intensifying, it also presents more opportunities. Engagement with U.S. clients has increased, with ongoing price competition and small-batch trends remaining unchanged [2][13] - **Competitive Pricing and Market Position** - The company has a clear advantage in the supply chain, with prices lower than major competitor YK. However, significant price adjustments from suppliers are rare. The overall market is expected to face considerable pressure next year, with stable but slower growth anticipated due to the maturity of the apparel accessory industry [3][15][14] - **Future Demand and Growth Outlook** - The company remains optimistic about future demand, although it acknowledges potential pressures from consumer sentiment and investments in the Vietnam project. The apparel accessory industry is expected to grow steadily but at a slower rate than in previous years [15] - **Overseas Expansion Focus** - Future overseas expansion will focus on Vietnam and other Southeast Asian regions, with key clients including Nike, Adidas, and Uniqlo, although the depth of cooperation varies [16] - **Impact of Automation** - Automation is expected to positively influence overall operational quality but is unlikely to significantly enhance gross margins, as the company already operates at a high margin level [17] - **Employee Composition and Training in Vietnam** - The Vietnam factory currently employs around 600 people, primarily local staff, with a few key personnel dispatched from the domestic team. Improving local employee skills is crucial for future operational success [18][20][21] - **Order Fulfillment and Trends** - Recent order fulfillment timelines remain stable, with replenishment typically taking around ten days. Winter orders are expected to dominate until January, with some spring orders already received, albeit in smaller quantities [22][23] - **Taxation and Currency Impact** - The company benefits from a 15% tax incentive, while other operations are subject to a standard 25% tax rate. The Vietnamese operations enjoy tax incentives as well. Currency fluctuations have not significantly impacted the company [25] - **Challenges in Vietnam Operations** - The Vietnam operations face challenges in production delivery capabilities and employee skill levels compared to domestic and Bangladeshi teams. Local supply chain efficiency also needs improvement, but these issues are expected to gradually resolve over time [8][20] - **Financial Performance and Losses** - The Vietnam base incurred a loss of approximately 16 million yuan in the first half of the year, primarily due to exchange losses. The total annual loss is projected to be around 20 million yuan, but operational losses are expected to decrease as orders increase [27] - **Inventory and Sales Impact** - Last year's warm winter led to inventory buildup, affecting sales. The company has a short order cycle of about half a month to a month, and while feedback for the upcoming year is increasing, it remains modest. Overall market sentiment appears more positive than before [28]

Core Insights - The proportion of Japanese companies prioritizing mainland China as a production base has decreased to 16.2%, down 7.6 percentage points from the previous survey in 2019, indicating concerns over US-China tariff negotiations and geopolitical risks [2][4] - The overall percentage of Japanese companies establishing production or sales bases overseas has dropped to 18.3%, a decline of 6.4 percentage points compared to pre-COVID levels [4] Group 1: Production Base Preferences - After mainland China, the next most prioritized locations for production bases are Vietnam (7.9%), Thailand (5.3%), and Taiwan (2.7%) [6] - The survey indicates a significant shift in focus away from China for production, reflecting broader trends in global supply chain adjustments [2][6] Group 2: Sales Base Preferences - Mainland China remains the top choice for sales bases at 12.3%, but this represents a decline of 13.6 percentage points from the last survey [6] - The United States ranks second for sales bases at 8.2%, followed by Thailand at 6.2%, highlighting a shift in market focus [6] Group 3: Impact of Tariff Negotiations - 13.5% of surveyed companies reported that US tariff negotiations had a "significant impact" on their overseas operations, including adjustments to locations and market exits [6] - 42.5% of companies acknowledged "some degree of impact," citing increased costs and the need to revise local procurement strategies [6]

Core Insights - Richemont, the owner of Cartier, reported better-than-expected quarterly sales, indicating strong performance in the luxury sector [1] Company Summary - The Geneva-based luxury group is currently awaiting the outcome of tariff negotiations between Switzerland and the United States, which could impact future sales and operations [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper: After Sino-US negotiations, the copper price dropped to test the 10-day moving average support. The downstream copper开工 rate declined further, but the inventory decreased slightly. Considering the potential medium - scale delivery of LME copper in the near future, maintain a callback - buying strategy and pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1] - Aluminum: With good domestic apparent demand, high proportion of molten aluminum, de - stocking of aluminum ingots and various aluminum products, and supply disruptions overseas, the price is pushed up. In the long - term with low inventory, it is advisable to hold on dips [1] - Zinc: The zinc price fluctuated upward this week. The supply of domestic and imported TC is accelerating its decline. The demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas. Although the domestic fundamentals are poor, there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year, so the price may not fall deeply. Pay attention to anti - arbitrage opportunities and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [2] - Nickel: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating both at home and abroad. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian mining end and a motivation to support prices on the policy side, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [3] - Stainless Steel: The supply from steel mills increased slightly in October. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The cost of ferronickel and ferrochrome remains stable, and the inventory is at a high level. With a motivation to support prices on the Indonesian policy side, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [7] - Lead: The lead price dropped due to downstream production cuts this week. The supply of scrap is weak, and the recovery of recycled lead production is slow. The demand is expected to weaken. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly next week, and it is advisable to observe the resumption of recycled production and the increase of warehouse receipts [8] - Tin: The tin price fluctuated this week. The supply is marginally recovering, and the demand is mainly rigid. In the short - term, it follows the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, it is advisable to hold on dips near the cost line [8][10] - Industrial Silicon: The supply of industrial silicon will decline in the fourth quarter, but considering the maintenance of polysilicon enterprises, the supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, it will fluctuate at the cycle bottom [11] - Lithium Carbonate: Affected by the rumor of mine resumption in Jiangxi, the lithium carbonate price dropped rapidly on Friday. The supply side has strong price - support motivation, and the demand side is mainly in a wait - and - see state. If the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market: The market is dominated by tariff negotiation progress. After Sino - US negotiations, the copper price dropped [1] - Fundamentals: Downstream copper开工 rate declined, but inventory decreased slightly. Pay attention to the impact of stricter scrap copper policies on the substitution of refined copper [1] - Strategy: Maintain a callback - buying strategy, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,300 or gradually building virtual inventory [1] Aluminum - Market: Domestic apparent demand is good, and overseas supply is disrupted [1] - Fundamentals: High proportion of molten aluminum, de - stocking of aluminum ingots and various aluminum products [1] - Strategy: Hold on dips in the long - term with low inventory [1] Zinc - Market: The zinc price fluctuated upward this week [2] - Fundamentals: Supply of domestic and imported TC is declining. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and average overseas. Social inventory is fluctuating domestically, and LME inventory is decreasing overseas [2] - Strategy: Although the domestic fundamentals are poor, the price may not fall deeply at the end of the year. Pay attention to anti - arbitrage opportunities and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 12 - 02 spread [2] Nickel - Market: Short - term fundamentals are weak [3] - Fundamentals: Supply of pure nickel is high, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating both at home and abroad [3] - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities with disturbances in the Indonesian mining end and policy support motivation [3] Stainless Steel - Market: Fundamentals are weak [7] - Fundamentals: Supply from steel mills increased slightly in October, demand is mainly rigid, cost is stable, and inventory is high [7] - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities with policy support motivation in Indonesia [7] Lead - Market: The lead price dropped due to downstream production cuts [8] - Fundamentals: Supply of scrap is weak, recycled lead production recovery is slow, demand is expected to weaken, and the spot is still in short supply [8] - Strategy: Observe the resumption of recycled production and the increase of warehouse receipts, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 17,200 - 17,500 [8] Tin - Market: The tin price fluctuated this week [8] - Fundamentals: Supply is marginally recovering, and demand is mainly rigid [8][10] - Strategy: Follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term, and hold on dips near the cost line in the long - term [8][10] Industrial Silicon - Market: Supply will decline in the fourth quarter, and supply - demand is balanced and slightly loose [11] - Fundamentals: Xinjiang enterprises' production is stable, and Sichuan and Yunnan's production will decrease in the dry season [11] - Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [11] Lithium Carbonate - Market: The price dropped on Friday due to the rumor of mine resumption [11] - Fundamentals: Supply side has strong price - support motivation, and demand side is in a wait - and - see state [11] - Strategy: The long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years if demand conditions are met [11]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The copper market is influenced by tariff negotiation progress. With tight supply at the mine end and growing infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained. Attention should be paid to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. - The domestic apparent demand for aluminum is good, with high proportion of molten aluminum and inventory reduction. With improved Sino - US economic and trade relations and better demand, a long - term strategy of holding on dips is recommended [1]. - The zinc price fluctuates upward. The supply side has tightening issues, and the demand side is seasonally weak domestically and has some production resistance overseas. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2]. - The supply of nickel remains high, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. With continuous disturbances at the Indonesian mine end and potential price - supporting policies, short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [3]. - The lead price drops due to downstream production cuts. Supply and demand are in a tight mismatch, and it is expected that the lead price will fluctuate narrowly next week, with a recommended cautious approach [7]. - The tin price fluctuates. The supply side has marginal improvement, and the demand side is mainly supported by rigidity. In the short term, it is recommended to follow the macro - sentiment, and in the long - term, buy on dips near the cost line [8]. - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, but the supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate drops on Friday due to rumors. With strong support from the supply side and potential demand changes, the medium - to - long - term pattern may change in 1 - 2 years [9]. - For stainless steel, the supply increases slightly in October, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are high [12]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market prices and related indicators such as spot price, premium, inventory, and import profit are presented from October 30 to November 5, 2025. The overall copper price has a downward test, downstream开工 further declines, and inventory shows a slight de - stocking pattern [1]. Aluminum - Data on aluminum ingot prices, alumina prices, inventory, and other indicators are provided from October 30 to November 5, 2025. Domestic apparent demand is good, and overseas supply has production - halt disturbances [1]. Zinc - Information on zinc prices, inventory, import profit, and other aspects is given from October 30 to November 5, 2025. The zinc price fluctuates upward, with supply - side tightening and demand - side weakness [2]. Nickel - Data on nickel ore, high - nickel iron, nickel prices, and inventory are shown from October 30 to November 5, 2025. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating [3]. Lead - Information on lead prices, inventory, and import profit is presented from October 30 to November 5, 2025. The lead price drops due to downstream production cuts, and supply - demand is in a tight situation [7]. Tin - Data on tin import and export earnings, inventory, and other indicators are provided from October 30 to November 5, 2025. The tin price fluctuates, with supply - side marginal improvement and demand - side rigidity [7][8]. Industrial Silicon - Information on industrial silicon basis and warehouse receipts is given from October 30 to November 5, 2025. The supply is expected to decline in the fourth quarter, and the supply - demand is balanced and slightly loose [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Data on lithium carbonate prices, basis, and warehouse receipts are presented from October 30 to November 5, 2025. The price drops on Friday due to rumors, and the medium - to - long - term pattern may change [9]. Stainless Steel - Information on stainless steel product prices is provided from October 30 to November 5, 2025. Supply increases slightly, demand is rigid, costs are stable, and inventories are high [12].