Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expectation has increased this week due to multiple factors including the completion of the autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, relevant government notices, the Fed's interest rate cut, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting [7]. - The supply - demand of silicon ferroalloy is in a weak balance, with inventory at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke prices are stable, providing short - term cost support. However, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is in a loss state [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - It is expected that from November to December, the output of silicon ferroalloy will decline compared with the same period. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and the profit of coke is difficult to improve significantly. The alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The silicon ferroalloy is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: On October 25, the autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was completed. On the 28th, the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released, and on the 29th, relevant government notices were issued. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Profit**: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, inventory is at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke prices are stable, providing short - term cost support. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 380 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 360 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the market and winter equipment maintenance, the planned production of a Gansu enterprise in October is postponed to next year. It is expected that the output from November to December will decline compared with the same period. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and the silicon ferroalloy is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of October 31, the position of silicon ferroalloy futures contracts was 318,600 lots, a decrease of 41,000 lots compared with the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract monthly spread was 66, a decrease of 4 points compared with the previous period. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 4,471, a decrease of 6,692 compared with the previous period. The price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was 5,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [13][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 31, the basis of silicon ferroalloy was - 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 points compared with the previous period [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The national average daily output of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 16,170 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared with the previous week. The weekly demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel types was 20,275.3 tons, an increase of 1.70% compared with the previous week. The national silicon ferroalloy output (weekly supply) was 113,200 tons. The inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 71,990 tons, an increase of 5,430 tons compared with the previous week [28][34]. - **Upstream Situation**: As of October 27, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy remained unchanged. As of October 30, the prices of lanthanum coke in Inner Mongolia and Shenmu remained unchanged. The spot production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia was 5,682 yuan/ton, a 1.18% increase, and in Ningxia was 5,579 yuan/ton, a 1.20% increase. The spot profit in Ningxia was - 409 yuan/ton, unchanged [38][42]. - **Downstream Situation**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared with the previous week. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export of silicon ferroalloy with a silicon content greater than 55% was 292,900 tons, a decrease of 22,900 tons compared with the same period last year, a 7.25% year - on - year decrease [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expectation has increased this week due to multiple factors, including the public consultation on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, the Fed's interest rate cut, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting [6]. - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [6]. - In terms of supply and demand, inventory has rebounded rapidly, production has continued to decline slightly at a high level, and raw material port inventory has increased by 6.3 tons. The profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is in a loss state, and the mainstream steel procurement price in October decreased month - on - month [6]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - It is expected that the supply pressure will increase in November, and the manganese - silicon inventory will continue to rise. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5700 - 5900 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on capacity replacement in the iron and steel industry, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released. The Fed cut interest rates, and Sino - US leaders met, enhancing market expectations [6]. - **Overseas**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US adjusted tariffs on Chinese goods [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Inventory has rebounded for 4 consecutive weeks, production has declined slightly at a high level, raw material port inventory has increased, and demand for hot metal has decreased. The profit in Inner Mongolia is - 130 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 230 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel procurement price in October was 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: In November, new production capacity in Inner Mongolia is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The industry plans to reduce energy consumption by 40%, but supply has not decreased significantly. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5700 - 5900 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of October 31, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 524,000 lots, a decrease of 19,000 lots compared to the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 44, an increase of 2 points compared to the previous period. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 9,784, a decrease of 35,082 compared to the previous period. The spread between the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron January contracts was 272, an increase of 42 points compared to the previous period [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 31, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The basis was - 192 yuan/ton, unchanged compared to the previous period [23]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The national average daily output of silicon - manganese was 29,675 tons, an increase of 45 tons. The demand for the five major steel types of silicon - manganese was 124,492 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47%. The national silicon - manganese production was 207,725 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.15%. The downstream demand is gradually decreasing, and the supply is at a relatively high level [27]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the national silicon - manganese inventory was 314,500 tons, an increase of 21,500 tons compared to the previous period. Inventory has rebounded significantly for 5 consecutive weeks [30]. - **Upstream**: As of October 29, the price of Australian manganese ore and South African manganese ore remained unchanged. As of October 27, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. As of October 24, the total manganese ore port inventory was 442.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.44%. The arrival volume of manganese ore from different regions showed different trends. The silicon - manganese spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia remained in a loss state, but the loss decreased [37][43][47]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 236.36 million tons, a decrease of 3.54 million tons compared to the previous week. The final price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in October was 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The aviation sector is expected to see a bottoming out of its economic cycle, with potential improvements in demand and pricing as the supply growth remains low [5][8] - Despite a decline in ticket prices during the peak summer season, there are signs of recovery in business travel demand, which may lead to better pricing in the near future [5][8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - China National Aviation (601111 CH): Buy, Target Price: 9.25 CNY [4] - China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH): Buy, Target Price: 4.80 CNY [4] - China Southern Airlines (600029 CH): Buy, Target Price: 7.35 CNY [4] - Spring Airlines (601021 CH): Buy, Target Price: 67.80 CNY [4] - 吉祥航空 (603885 CH): Buy, Target Price: 16.25 CNY [4] - 华夏航空 (002928 CH): Buy, Target Price: 13.65 CNY [4] - Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Buy, Target Price: 13.20 HKD [4] Industry Performance - In August, the three major airlines and Spring Airlines saw a 5.0% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and a 5.8% increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), leading to an overall passenger load factor increase of 0.6 percentage points to 86.8% [5][11] - Domestic ticket prices showed a year-on-year decline of 6.5% during the peak summer season, but there was a 2.5% increase in ticket prices in early September [5][8] Company-Specific Insights - China National Aviation reported a revenue of 80.757 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.806 billion CNY, narrowing by 35.1% [23] - China Eastern Airlines achieved a revenue of 66.822 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.592 billion CNY, narrowing by 42.5% [23] - China Southern Airlines reported a revenue of 86.291 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.533 billion CNY, which is a 24.8% increase in loss year-on-year [24] - Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 10.304 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.169 billion CNY, a 14.1% decrease year-on-year [24] - 吉祥航空 reported a revenue of 11.067 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.505 billion CNY, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [24] - 华夏航空 reported a revenue of 3.610 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 12.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.251 billion CNY, an increase of 859.0% year-on-year [24] - Cathay Pacific reported a revenue of 54.309 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, a 9.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.651 billion HKD, a 1.1% increase year-on-year [24]

Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry in China is significantly competitive globally, with key materials accounting for over 70% of global shipments, and power batteries holding a 68.79% global share [1] - In 2024, the revenue of China's lithium battery sector is projected to reach 2.25 trillion yuan, with a CAGR of 21.80% from 2018 to 2024, although net profit is expected to decline sharply to 110.1 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - Major issues in the lithium battery industry include a mismatch between net profit scale and global industry position, overall low profitability, excess capacity due to continuous release of production capacity in segmented fields, and a significant decline in prices of key raw materials [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Industry Overview - Since 2009, China's automotive production and sales have ranked first globally, with 2024 production and sales expected to exceed 30 million units, making China the largest automobile exporter [2] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) sector in China has shown remarkable competitiveness, with sales reaching 12.859 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.10%, accounting for 40.92% of total NEV sales [2] - Despite growth in production and sales, the overall profit of the automotive industry remains low, with 2024 profits projected at 462.3 billion yuan, significantly lower than the peak of 688.3 billion yuan in 2017 [2] Group 3: Policy Measures Against "Involution" Competition - The Chinese government has initiated a series of macro policies to address "involution" competition, with the first mention in July 2024 by the Central Political Bureau, followed by further clarifications in subsequent economic meetings and reports [3] - Various government bodies, including the State Council and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, have introduced policies and measures, while industry associations have launched self-regulatory initiatives to combat involution [3] - The comprehensive rectification of involution is expected to enhance the global competitiveness of China's new energy vehicle and lithium battery industries [3]

Economic Overview - The economic climate in China continues to improve, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.4%, non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.3%, and composite PMI output index at 50.5%, all showing an increase from the previous month [1][2] - The overall economic situation is expected to remain stable and improve, with potential for domestic demand to be released in September and the fourth quarter [1][6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI remains below the critical 50% mark, indicating ongoing pressure from insufficient demand on production and operations [1] - The production index, new orders index, and other sub-indices have shown improvements, with the raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and factory price index at 49.1%, both rising for three consecutive months [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index has stabilized above 50%, with the financial services and capital market service sectors showing strong performance, both indices above 60% [3] - The hospitality and restaurant sectors have also seen significant increases, with the restaurant business activity index rising above 50% [4] Emerging Industries - The information services sector, particularly telecommunications and internet services, is experiencing robust growth, with business activity indices above 55% [5] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to further enhance the application scenarios and development potential of the information services industry [5] Future Outlook - The composite PMI output index indicates a continued expansion in production activities, with manufacturing expectations improving to 53.7% [6] - External factors such as the easing of extreme weather conditions and ongoing US-China trade negotiations are anticipated to support stable foreign trade [6][7] - The potential for domestic demand to be released is expected to continue, driven by policy support and market self-correction [7]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to allocate over 700 billion yuan in special bonds for long-term projects in 2024, with nearly 500 billion yuan already arranged for 2025, focusing on major infrastructure projects along the Yangtze River and urban development [1] - The "Two New" policies have accelerated consumer spending, with sales in five major product categories reaching approximately 830 billion yuan by May 5, 2023, and over 300 million applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies [1][2] - The NDRC is working to enhance the business environment, aiming to boost social confidence and market vitality through streamlined administrative services and improved market competition [2] Group 2 - The NDRC has initiated a market access barrier cleanup action to ensure a unified national market, focusing on eliminating unreasonable regulations and practices [2] - A new initiative allows for the replacement of proof of no violations with specialized credit reports, aimed at reducing the burden on businesses [3] - The NDRC is addressing "involution" competition in various industries, emphasizing the need for structural adjustments and fair competition to maintain market order [3][4]

Economic Policy and Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is committed to improving policies for stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand, responding to external environmental changes in a timely manner [3][4] - A total of 300 billion yuan will be allocated for consumption support, with the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan planned for October [4] - The NDRC aims to ensure effective investment and support local governments in creating development highlights while balancing development and safety [4] Artificial Intelligence Initiatives - The State Council has approved the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative to enhance AI applications across various industries [5][6] - The initiative focuses on promoting large-scale commercial applications of AI, leveraging China's complete industrial system and large market scale [6] - The NDRC plans to optimize the AI innovation ecosystem by increasing policy support and enhancing foundational elements such as computing power, algorithms, and talent [6] Competition Regulation - The Central Economic Commission emphasizes the need to regulate low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises [7] - The NDRC is working on revising the pricing law to clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, including predatory pricing [7] - Efforts will be made to combine effective market mechanisms with proactive government actions to improve market order and encourage quality products [7]

Group 1: Economic Measures - The fourth batch of 69 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement will be allocated in October, completing the annual plan of 300 billion yuan [1] - The "two重" construction project list of 800 billion yuan has been fully allocated, with 735 billion yuan of central budget investment also nearly disbursed [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will promote effective investment and enhance the system to leverage government investment to stimulate social investment [7] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence - There is a strong demand for the application of artificial intelligence, marking a critical window for its implementation [2] - The NDRC plans to advance the large-scale commercialization of artificial intelligence, leveraging China's complete industrial system and large market scale [6] Group 3: Regulatory Reforms - The NDRC is revising the pricing law to address unfair pricing behaviors, including predatory pricing below cost, and will seek public input on the draft [4] - Measures will be taken to address "involution" competition through legal revisions, policy issuance, and industry self-regulation [5] - The NDRC will govern disorderly competition among enterprises and standardize local investment attraction behaviors [9] Group 4: Private Sector Involvement - The NDRC will promote greater participation of private enterprises in national major project construction [10] - There is a commitment to prevent blind following and excessive competition in emerging sectors while encouraging innovation [11]

Core Viewpoint - The civil aviation passenger volume in China continues to rise due to the release of summer travel demand and the dissipation of typhoon impacts, with expectations for improved industry efficiency despite a decline in average ticket prices [1][5][6]. Group 1: Passenger Volume and Flight Operations - From July 21 to 27, 2023, the national civil aviation executed 115,000 passenger flights, averaging 16,400 flights per day, representing a 2% increase from the previous week and a 5% increase year-on-year compared to 2024 [2]. - The weekly passenger volume reached 16.53 million, with an average of 2.36 million passengers per day, reflecting a 3% week-on-week increase and a 5% year-on-year increase compared to 2024 [2]. - As of July 27, 2023, the total number of passenger flights at national airports reached 5.97 million, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with total passenger throughput at 862.09 million, up 4.8% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Ticket Pricing and Revenue - The average ticket price for domestic routes from July 21 to 27, 2023, was 956.5 yuan, a 3% decrease week-on-week and an 11% decrease year-on-year compared to 2024 [6]. - The average revenue per seat kilometer for domestic routes was 0.540 yuan, down 2% week-on-week and 12% year-on-year compared to 2024 [6]. - Despite the decline in average ticket prices, there is an expectation for an increase in average ticket prices during the 2025 summer travel season, with a projected average price of 1,079 yuan, a 3.5% increase compared to the 2024 summer season [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The civil aviation industry anticipates that the growth rate of passenger throughput during the 2025 summer travel season will be 4.9%, with domestic passenger throughput expected to reach 272 million, a 4.2% year-on-year increase [4]. - The number of domestic passenger flights is projected to increase by 1.6% to 1.81 million, while international and regional flights are expected to grow by 11.5% to 147,000 flights [3][4]. - The industry expects that the supply growth will be lower than demand growth, leading to an improvement in the supply-demand relationship and a potential increase in average ticket prices [3][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - level shows that the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council aims to resist "involution - style" competition and optimize the allocation of state - owned capital. The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in 8 provinces (regions) to ensure stable coal supply [1][4][5]. - Fundamentally, last week's industrial data was average, with a weak balance between supply and demand. The output and apparent demand of rebar increased, and inventory decreased slightly. The output and apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The market sentiment dominated the futures price trend, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile trend [1][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3356 | 209 | 6.64 | 16533372 | 2980480 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3507 | 197 | 5.95 | 5506489 | 1507782 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 802.5 | 17.5 | 2.23 | 2593703 | 562835 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1259.0 | 333.0 | 35.96 | 15546782 | 834111 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1763.0 | 245.0 | 16.14 | 397069 | 54288 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated strongly, affected by market sentiment. In the second half of the week, the market showed differentiation, and the sentiment cooled down. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3160 (+160) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3430 (+180) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3500 (+160) yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - The National Energy Administration will check coal production in 8 provinces (regions) to ensure stable coal supply. From January to June this year, 16,500 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation in China, with 6 regions having a start - up rate of over 80%. Multiple departments are taking measures to combat "involution - style" competition [6][10] 3.4 Related Charts - The content provides 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and other aspects [9]