Core Viewpoint - The civil aviation passenger volume in China continues to rise due to the release of summer travel demand and the dissipation of typhoon impacts, with expectations for improved industry efficiency despite a decline in average ticket prices [1][5][6]. Group 1: Passenger Volume and Flight Operations - From July 21 to 27, 2023, the national civil aviation executed 115,000 passenger flights, averaging 16,400 flights per day, representing a 2% increase from the previous week and a 5% increase year-on-year compared to 2024 [2]. - The weekly passenger volume reached 16.53 million, with an average of 2.36 million passengers per day, reflecting a 3% week-on-week increase and a 5% year-on-year increase compared to 2024 [2]. - As of July 27, 2023, the total number of passenger flights at national airports reached 5.97 million, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with total passenger throughput at 862.09 million, up 4.8% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Ticket Pricing and Revenue - The average ticket price for domestic routes from July 21 to 27, 2023, was 956.5 yuan, a 3% decrease week-on-week and an 11% decrease year-on-year compared to 2024 [6]. - The average revenue per seat kilometer for domestic routes was 0.540 yuan, down 2% week-on-week and 12% year-on-year compared to 2024 [6]. - Despite the decline in average ticket prices, there is an expectation for an increase in average ticket prices during the 2025 summer travel season, with a projected average price of 1,079 yuan, a 3.5% increase compared to the 2024 summer season [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The civil aviation industry anticipates that the growth rate of passenger throughput during the 2025 summer travel season will be 4.9%, with domestic passenger throughput expected to reach 272 million, a 4.2% year-on-year increase [4]. - The number of domestic passenger flights is projected to increase by 1.6% to 1.81 million, while international and regional flights are expected to grow by 11.5% to 147,000 flights [3][4]. - The industry expects that the supply growth will be lower than demand growth, leading to an improvement in the supply-demand relationship and a potential increase in average ticket prices [3][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - level shows that the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council aims to resist "involution - style" competition and optimize the allocation of state - owned capital. The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in 8 provinces (regions) to ensure stable coal supply [1][4][5]. - Fundamentally, last week's industrial data was average, with a weak balance between supply and demand. The output and apparent demand of rebar increased, and inventory decreased slightly. The output and apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The market sentiment dominated the futures price trend, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile trend [1][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3356 | 209 | 6.64 | 16533372 | 2980480 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3507 | 197 | 5.95 | 5506489 | 1507782 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 802.5 | 17.5 | 2.23 | 2593703 | 562835 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1259.0 | 333.0 | 35.96 | 15546782 | 834111 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1763.0 | 245.0 | 16.14 | 397069 | 54288 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated strongly, affected by market sentiment. In the second half of the week, the market showed differentiation, and the sentiment cooled down. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3160 (+160) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3430 (+180) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3500 (+160) yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - The National Energy Administration will check coal production in 8 provinces (regions) to ensure stable coal supply. From January to June this year, 16,500 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation in China, with 6 regions having a start - up rate of over 80%. Multiple departments are taking measures to combat "involution - style" competition [6][10] 3.4 Related Charts - The content provides 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and other aspects [9]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The steel and ore prices have risen rapidly recently, driven by macro - expectations and anti - involution expectations. The medium - term trend is expected to be strong, with the rebar main contract likely to break through 3400, and iron ore performing weaker than finished products. There may be adjustments after the short - term rapid rise. The market may have reversed rather than just rebounded. [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel and Ore Market Situation - This week, the steel and ore market was strong, hitting new highs and breaking through the first - half highs [7]. Important Information - From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 24.13 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; new orders were 44.33 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%; as of the end of June, the order backlog was 234.54 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7% [12]. - In the first half of 2025, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [12]. - In August 2025, the production plan for household air conditioners was 11.155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%, with domestic sales planned at 6.51 million units (down 5.3% year - on - year) and exports at 4.645 million units (down 9.5% year - on - year) [12]. - Relevant departments are promoting the rectification of involution - style competition and taking measures to regulate the market [12]. - Japan launched an anti - dumping investigation on cold - rolled stainless steel sheets and coils from China [12]. - The second round of coke price increase started on July 22, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamped wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamped dry - quenched coke [13]. - In the first half of this year, China completed 532.9 billion yuan in water conservancy construction investment, implemented 34,400 water conservancy projects, and started 18,800 new projects [13]. Steel Supply, Inventory and Consumption - This week, the total steel supply was 8.6697 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,200 tons (0.1%); the total inventory was 13.365 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,600 tons (0.1%); the apparent consumption was 8.6813 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,800 tons (0.2%) [14]. - This week, rebar supply was 2.1196 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons (1.4%); total inventory was 5.3864 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,200 tons (0.9%); apparent consumption was 2.1658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.0% [17]. - This week, hot - rolled steel supply was 3.1749 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,500 tons (1.1%); total inventory was 3.4516 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,500 tons (0.7%); apparent consumption was 3.1524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 85,500 tons (2.6%) [17]. - Rebar inventory contradictions are not prominent. This week, rebar factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory decreased. Hot - rolled steel factory, social, and total inventories all increased, and inventory contradictions were not prominent [18][19]. Iron - related Data - This week, the daily iron - water output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, but it remained at a relatively high level [22].

郑栅洁表示，国家发展改革委将认真贯彻党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持和落实"两个毫不动摇"，积极 采取务实有效措施，健全国企民企协同发展的体制机制，推动整治"内卷式"竞争、拓展产业链供应链合 作、促进科技创新、完善公司治理和国际化经营服务等，促进各种所有制经济优势互补、共同发展，进 一步增强经济发展活力和产业竞争力。同时，将坚持和完善政企常态化沟通交流机制，全力帮助民营企 业解决实际困难，促进民营经济健康发展、高质量发展。 记者注意到，对于整治"内卷式"竞争，近期多部门持续释放明确信号。7月3日，工业和信息化部召开光 伏行业制造业企业座谈会，要求聚焦重点难点，依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，引导企业 提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出，实现健康可持续发展。6月27日，市场监管总局曝光一批"内卷 式"竞争严重违法失信名单，旨在通过公开曝光震慑导致"内卷式"竞争的不法行为，营造良好市场秩 序。 近日，国家发展改革委党组发文表示，综合整治"内卷式"竞争，支持企业通过科技创新提高产品质量和 核心竞争力，加力破除地方保护和市场分割，通过优化产业布局、强化标准引领、推进整合重组等方 式，出清无效低效产能，巩固和扩大领 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to rectify "involutionary" competition within the industry, which is expected to lead to an improved competitive landscape [2] - Strong demand for travel during the summer season has resulted in high passenger load factors, with a cumulative passenger throughput of 99.864 million from July 1 to July 22, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [2] - The report indicates a strong certainty of supply contraction due to delays in aircraft deliveries caused by supply chain disruptions, with net growth rates for major airlines remaining below 3% [2] - The decline in oil prices is expected to enhance airline profitability, with aviation kerosene prices decreasing by 10.0% and 17.0% in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 compared to the same periods in 2024 [2] - The report expresses optimism regarding the recovery of seat revenue due to improving supply-demand dynamics, suggesting a focus on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [2] Summary by Sections - **Industry Competition**: The Civil Aviation Administration of China is leading efforts to optimize route networks and reduce irrational competition, which is expected to improve the industry's structure [2] - **Passenger Demand**: The summer travel season has shown robust demand, with domestic flight load factors reaching 84.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - **Supply Constraints**: Major airlines are experiencing limited fleet growth, with net growth rates for several airlines being below 3%, and operational capacity is expected to remain tight [2] - **Oil Price Trends**: The average price of aviation kerosene has decreased significantly, contributing to potential profit increases for airlines [2] - **Profitability Outlook**: The report anticipates that improving seat revenue will lead to greater profitability for airlines, with a recommendation to focus on key players in the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant operational pressure due to supply-demand mismatches leading to price declines, with most companies in the industry chain reporting losses [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Among 30 listed photovoltaic companies that have released half-year performance forecasts, only 8 expect positive net profits after deducting non-recurring items, with just 2 companies showing year-on-year growth [1]. - The main characteristics observed in the disclosed performance forecasts include widespread losses across the main industry chain (silicon materials, wafers, cells, and modules), slightly better performance in auxiliary materials, and a divergence in performance where leading companies with technological and management advantages are starting to see improvements [1][2]. Group 2: Company Innovations and Strategies - Companies that have reduced losses are primarily those focusing on technology, gradually driving performance recovery [2]. - Longi Green Energy's losses are expected to narrow year-on-year, benefiting from a dual focus on technological premium and market scale, particularly through its Back Contact (BC) components [2]. - Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy's losses are also decreasing, attributed to the growing market recognition of its All Back Contact (ABC) components, which have high power, safety, and aesthetic advantages [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Price Recovery - Recent data indicates a rebound in prices across the photovoltaic industry chain, with silicon materials, wafers, and cell prices all increasing, particularly a 15% rise in wafer prices [5][6]. - The recovery in silicon material prices is expected to benefit vertically integrated companies, aiding in profit recovery [6]. - The industry is urged to shift from low-price competition to value competition focused on technological innovation and quality improvement to achieve high-quality development [6][7].

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by consumption policies, investment from special bonds, and export resilience[10] - Nominal GDP growth was 4.3%, 1 percentage point lower than the actual growth, indicating a disparity in economic perception[2] - In June, exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with direct exports to the US declining by 16.1%, but the drop was less severe than in May[16] Consumption and Investment Trends - Retail sales growth fell from 6.4% in May to 4.8% in June, with significant drops in restaurant income from 5.9% to 0.9%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth decreased from 3.7% to 2.8% in the first half of the year, with real estate investment down by 12.9% in June[4] - Manufacturing investment growth slowed, reflecting a need for capacity reduction amid insufficient effective demand[23] Policy Recommendations - A "dual 5" target is suggested, aiming for both nominal and actual GDP growth to reach around 5%[12] - Emphasis on adjusting macroeconomic policies to prioritize nominal GDP growth and address employment and price stability[12] - Recommendations include expanding fiscal spending, supporting affected industries, and enhancing consumer incentives to stimulate demand[27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with a slight increase in futures, but overall demand remains weak and inventory depletion is slow [3] Pricing - As of July 8, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 12,700 yuan/ton, and in Foshan is 12,650 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1] - The nickel iron price is reported at 910-920 yuan/nickel (including tax), with significant pressure on profits for steel mills [3] Raw Materials - Philippine 1.3% nickel ore is trading at FOB 36-37, with shipping efficiency hindered by rainy weather [1] - The domestic benchmark price for Indonesian nickel ore is expected to decrease by 0.5-0.8 USD, with domestic premiums expected to drop by 2 USD to +24-25 [1] Supply - In July, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.2531 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.87% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.67% [1] - The output for the 300 series is estimated at 1.7133 million tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.8% but a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [1] Inventory - As of July 4, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 507,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 25,200 tons [2] - On July 8, stainless steel futures inventory is reported at 111,410 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 546 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The overall demand in the market is weak, with manufacturing orders recovering slowly due to continuous rainy and high-temperature weather [3] - The psychological price gap between supply and demand continues to widen, with steel mills increasing pressure on raw material prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On July 8, the coke主力合约 was reported at 1,424.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.14%. The market logic has shifted from fundamental to expectation-based. The policy may have limited direct impact on coke. It is recommended to adopt a shock approach and monitor coking coal production and policy dynamics [5][33]. - On July 8, the coking coal主力合约 closed at 843.5 points, up 0.84% intraday. The fundamental situation of coking coal has not improved significantly, and the recent futures increase is driven by news. It is expected that the coking coal主力合约 will remain volatile [6][34]. Summary by Directory Industry News - President Xi Jinping pointed out during an inspection in Shanxi that the coal industry should be upgraded from low - end to high - end, and coal products should be transformed from primary fuels to high - value products. Wind, solar, and hydrogen energy should be developed to build a new energy system [8]. - On July 8, in an auction of coking coal by a major coal enterprise in Qipanjing, Inner Mongolia, the starting price of high - ash, low - sulfur fat coal was 760 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price was 790 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase from the July 1 transaction price [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Standard First - Class Flat - Bed)| 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Standard First - Class Outbound)| 1,210 yuan/ton | 3.42% | 4.31% | - 25.31% | - 39.20% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal)| 940 yuan/ton | 1.08% | 8.67% | - 20.34% | - 40.51% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - Produced)| 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.83% | 0.83% | - 18.12% | - 41.63% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - Produced)| 1,280 yuan/ton | 2.40% | 2.40% | - 16.34% | - 38.16% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1,424.5 | 0.14% | 1,437.0 | 1,410.0 | 16,389 | - 3,553 | 48,080 | - 18 | | Coking Coal | - | 843.5 | 0.84% | 849.5 | 829.0 | 723,095 | - 146,234 | 544,987 | - 4,404 | [13] Related Charts - The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), and other charts such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26] Market Outlook - For coke, the market is a mix of strong expectations and weak reality. The futures are in a low - level shock adjustment. It is recommended to approach it with a shock mindset and pay attention to coking coal production and policy [5][33]. - For coking coal, the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the futures increase is news - driven. With the upcoming Politburo meeting in July, the market's long - short game will intensify, and the coking coal主力合约 is expected to remain volatile [6][34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the lack of significant improvement at the industrial level, the short - term market may continue to be bullish under the anti - involution macro - expectations, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Friday, the main contract of rebar closed at 3072, up 0.23%; the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3201, up 0.25%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12730, up 0.539%. The night - session closed lower [1] Important News - The "Qiushi" magazine emphasizes creating a fair - competition market environment. Trump announced that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, likely to take effect on August 1st, with rates ranging from 10% - 20% to 60% - 70%. The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development plans to promote the stabilization of the real - estate market [1] Market Logic - On Friday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil generally rose with average trading volume. After reaching new highs, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined. Recently, blast - furnace overhauls have increased, and there are emission - reduction and production - restriction measures in Tangshan from July 4 - 15, having little impact on overall production. Steel inventories decreased slightly last week, and demand shows off - season characteristics [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term bullish trading strategy is recommended [1] Support and Resistance Levels - The resistance level of the main rebar contract has moved up to 3130, with an important support level at 3000. The support level of hot - rolled coil is 3026, and the resistance level is 3282. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1]