油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/08/12 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 8月7日止当周美国大豆出口检验量为518,066吨，高于预期 USDA周度出口检验报告显示，截至8月7日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为518,066吨，此前市场预估为20-50万吨，前 一周修正后为628,110吨，初值为612,539吨。 截至2024年8月8日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为350,958吨。 本作物年度迄今，美国大豆出口检验量累计为48,367,647吨，上一年度同期为43,388,486吨。 截至8月10日当周美国大豆优良率为68%一如市场预期 美国农业部（USDA）在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至2025年8月10日当周，美国大豆优良率为68%，一如市场预 期，前一周为69%，上年同期为68%。 截至当周，美国大豆开花率为91%，上一周为85%，上年同期为90%，五年均值为92%。 截至当周，美国大豆结英率为71%，上一周为58%，上年同期为70%，五年均值为72%。 Secex：巴西8月第一周出口大豆2,774,453.27吨 Secex公布的出口数据显示，巴西8月第一周出口大豆2,774,453.27吨，日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategies for both the soybean meal and corn sectors are cautiously bearish [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the supply - demand report is minor and in line with market expectations. The weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US is favorable, and the soybean growth is expected to remain good. In China, there is still pressure on the spot market, and future focus should be on the growth of new - season US soybeans and policy changes [3] - In the domestic corn market, there is an increase in supply, a lackluster demand, and changes in the market atmosphere due to import auctions [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market News and Important Data - Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 2978 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.47%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2655 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2910 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2810 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2790 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton). In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2660 yuan/ton [1] - US Data: As of July 13, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 70%, the flowering rate was 47%, and the pod - setting rate was 15%. As of July 10, the US soybean export inspection volume was 14.70 tons. The 2024/25 US soybean export inspection volume was 4641 tons, a 10.4% year - on - year increase, reaching 91.4% of the annual export target [2] 2. Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2295 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.30%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2641 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.23%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton [4] - US Data: As of July 13, the US corn good - excellent rate was 74%, the silking rate was 34%, and the wax - ripening rate was 7%. As of July 10, the US corn export inspection volume was 128.7 tons [4] 3. Market Analysis - Soybean Meal - The supply - demand report adjustment is small, in line with expectations. The US soybean good - excellent rate is high, and the weather is favorable. In China, there is spot pressure, and the soybean meal inventory is rising rapidly [3] 4. Market Analysis - Corn - In China, the supply of corn increases due to auctions and storage issues. The demand is weak as feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and the breeding season is off - peak. Import auctions show a change in market sentiment [5] 5. Strategy - For both soybean meal and corn, the strategy is cautiously bearish [4][6]

1. Overnight Market Information - The export inspection volume of US soybeans in the week ending July 10, 2025 was 147,045 tons, lower than the market forecast of 200,000 - 500,000 tons and the revised figure of 399,600 tons in the previous week [1] - As of July 13, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, with a flowering rate of 47% and a pod - setting rate of 15% [1] - Brazil exported 4,331,243.97 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of July 2025, with an average daily export volume 1.61% lower than that in July last year [1] - China's soybean imports from January to June 2025 were 4,937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, while the imports of edible vegetable oil decreased by 8.6% [1] - India's palm oil imports in June 2025 jumped 60% to 955,683 tons, reaching an 11 - month high, and the domestic vegetable oil inventory increased to 156.8 million tons as of July 1 [1] 2. Spot Prices - The spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from July 8 - 14, 2025 are presented in a table [9] 3. Other Information - There are sections about the import soybean crushing profit on the futures market, protein meal basis, oil basis, oil futures price spread, and oil import profit, but no specific content is provided [3][10][12][15]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-08 苹果走货不快，红枣销区到货较少 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7733元/吨，较前一日变动-6元/吨，幅度-0.08%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+467，较前一日变动+6；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1867，较前一日变动+6。 近期市场资讯，苹果现货市场整体走货不快，价格维持稳定为主，好货价格变动不大，产区冷库客商要货积极性 一般，早熟果目前仍以大荔、运城等地藤木、晨阳、夏红为主，整体上量有限，对行情影响不大。西部产区货源 剩余不多，存货商自行发市场为主，交易不多，早熟果藤木、光果晨阳等上市后价格稳定；山东产区仍以发市场 为主，部分货源价格因质量有小幅松动。销区市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70#起 步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.5-3元/斤，果农80#以上统 货3-3.5元/斤，80#一 ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/07/04 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： 美国农业部民间出口商报告向未知目的地出口销售 民间出口商报告向未知目的地出口销售22.6万吨大豆，2024/2025市场年度付运。 民间出口商报告向未知目的地出口销售19.5万吨豆粕 民间出口商报告向未知目的地出口销售19.5万吨豆粕，其中4.5万吨2024/2025市场年度付运，剩余15万吨 2025/2026市场年度付运。 26日止当周美国大豆出口销售合计净增70.14万吨，符合预期 26日止当周，美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增46.24万吨，较之前一周增加15%，较前四周均值增加62%，市 场此前预估为净增30.0万吨至净增70.0万吨。 当周，美国下一市场年度大豆出口销售净增23.90万吨，市场此前预估为净增 万吨至净增30.0万吨。 当周，美豆出口装船为25.16万吨，较之前一周减少5%，较此前四周均值减少27%。 当周，美国当前市场年度大豆新销售53.32万。下一市场年度大豆新销售23.91万吨。 日止当周美国豆粕出口销售合计净增 26日止当周，美国当前市场年度豆粕出口销售净增30.62万吨，较之前一周增加226 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean inventory in the quarter ending June 1, 2025, was higher than expected, while the planting area was lower than expected, and the good-to-excellent rate was also lower than expected [1]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports showed varying degrees of increase in June 2025 according to different institutions' data [1]. - Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July, but the export tax remained unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Information - U.S. 2025 Q2 soybean inventory was 1.007664 billion bushels, higher than the estimated 0.98 billion bushels. Farm - in inventory was 0.4117 billion bushels, and farm - out inventory was 0.595964 billion bushels [1]. - The estimated U.S. 2025 soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than the market estimate of 83.655 million acres, and the 2024 actual planting area was 87.05 million acres [1]. - As of the week ending June 29, 2025, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the expected 67%. The emergence rate was 94%, the flowering rate was 17%, and the pod - setting rate was 3% [1]. - A private exporter reported selling 204,000 tons of soybean meal to an unknown destination for the 2025/2026 market year [1]. - As of the week ending June 26, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 224,787 tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year was 45.851787 million tons, compared with 41.554272 million tons in the same period last year [1]. - The estimated U.S. May 2025 soybean crushing volume was 204.7 million bushels, 1.1% higher than April and 6.8% higher than May 2024. The estimated May 31 soybean oil inventory was 1.871 billion pounds, down 5.3% from the end of April and 14.5% from May 2024 [1]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's June 2025 palm oil exports increased 4.3% month - on - month; ITS reported a 4.7% increase; SGS reported an 11.74% increase [1]. - Indonesia raised the July reference price of crude palm oil to $877.89 per ton from $856.38 in June, with the export tax remaining at $52 per ton [1]. Imported Soybean Futures Crushing Profit No detailed information provided [2]. Futures Price Spreads of Oils and Fats No detailed information provided [5]. Spot Prices - The table shows the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from June 24 - 30, 2025 [3]. Basis of Protein Meal and Oils and Fats No detailed information provided [3][7].

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/25 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： USDA报告前瞻：美国2025年大豆播种面积料为8,365.5万英亩，玉米面积料为9,535万英亩 在美国农业部（USDA）公布年度作物播种面积报告之前，受访的分析师平均预计，美国2025年大豆播种面积为 8,365.5万英亩，预估区间介于8,250-8,530万英亩。美国农业部在3月31日的报告中预测大豆播种面积为8,349.5万英 亩。 分析师平均预计，美国2025年玉米播种面积为9,535万英亩，预估区间介于9,375-9,680万英亩，3月31日种植意向 报告中预估为9,532.6万英亩。 美国农业部将在北京时间7月1日00:00公布种植面积报告。 Anec：巴西6月大豆出口量料达到1,499万吨 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）预估，巴西6月大豆出口量料达到1,499万吨，高于前一周预估的1436万吨。 截至6月22日欧盟2024/25年度棕榈油进口量为276万吨 欧盟委员会公布的数据显示，截至6月22日，欧盟2024/25年度（自7月开始）迄今棕榈油进口量为276万吨，低于去 年同期的341万吨。 欧盟大豆进口量 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/6/6 | | 指标 | 6月5日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | -38 | -19 | 2500 1000 | | ===== 19/20 ===== 20/21 ===== 21/22 ====== 22/23 | | | - 23/24 | 24/25 | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | | | | 天津 | -98 | -19 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | 日照 | -158 | -39 | 500 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -58 | -19 | -500 | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 11/77 | 02/23 | 03/25 | 04/75 05 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the rumor of the result of the rapeseed anti - dumping investigation on Saturday, grains showed strong performance. However, the rumor is unconfirmed and policy variables are large, so caution is advised when going long. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to gradually accumulate inventory, with spot prices and basis continuing to decline. - In the northern part of the US soybean - producing areas, there will be less rainfall in the next two weeks, but no abnormally high temperatures, and the expected impact is limited. - Brazilian premiums have stabilized recently. - In the short term, the bullish driving force is limited. The near - month futures and basis are still under supply pressure. The 109 contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading. - Continuously monitor policy and weather changes. Subsequently, consider long opportunities for M11 and 00 contracts [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Spread Data - The report presents the basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions such as Dalian, Tianjin, and Zhangjiagang, as well as the spread data between M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, etc., and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong [3][4]. International Data - It shows the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the CNF premium of imported soybeans, and the trend of the CNF premium of soybeans in the United States and Brazil [4]. Inventory Data - As of last week, soybean inventory decreased slightly and is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. Soybean meal inventory increased to 20.69 tons and is still low. Feed companies' soybean meal inventory days increased but are still at a low level [5]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From May to July in China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The current purchase progress for June is 92.7%, July is 74.4%, and August is 29.7%. US soybean planting progress is fast, and there is a sign of dry weather in the next two weeks in some areas. The flood in the Argentine soybean - producing area is expected to have limited impact. - **Demand**: Before September, supply is expected to increase steadily. Poultry inventory remains high. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, leading to increased downstream transactions and better提货 [4][5].