华尔街经济学家表示，上周发布的姗姗来迟的9月就业报告，让美联储在12月利率决策时的道路变得更 加复杂。 "无论是维持还是降息，都可能出现多个反对票，"摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli在上周四的 研究报告中写道。"我们认为这是一个非常接近的决定，甚至比去年9月更接近。此前我们预计下月会降 息，但现在倾向于认为委员会下月会跳过降息，但1月和5月仍会降息，然后暂停。" 经济学家指出，由于政府关闭，9月就业报告已经过时，尽管标题数字超出预期，但细节并非全是好消 息。 对早期数据的修正显示，美国经济8月减少了4000个就业岗位，而此前报告的是增加2.2万个。7月新增 7.2万个岗位，低于此前报告的7.9万个。失业率从上月的4.3%略升至4.4%。与此同时，劳动力参与率从 62.3%小幅上升至62.4%。 "我们看到失业率上升的同时，劳动力参与率也在上升，"安永-帕特侬首席经济学家Gregory Daco在接受 采访时表示。"这意味着截至夏季末，有更多人处于劳动力市场的边缘。" "从美联储的角度来看，另一个值得关注的有趣现象是，我们看到工资增长势头面临下行压力，"他补充 道。"我们知道，许多美联储政策 ...

来源：喜娜AI 11月21日，美国联邦航空管理局发布航行通告，警告称在委内瑞拉空域存在"潜在危险局势"，受安 全局势恶化及委内瑞拉境内和周边军事活动加剧的影响，在该空域所有高度运行的民航飞机都需保持警 惕。美国联邦航空管理局建议民航运营方在飞经该空域前至少72小时向其通报飞行计划。这一航行通告 的有效期自"协调世界时"2025年11月21日持续至2026年2月19日。（央视新闻） 1、外媒：美国政府正考虑允许英伟达对华出售H200芯片 路透社21日援引消息透露，特朗普政府正考虑批准向中国出口美国芯片制造商英伟达的H200人工 智能芯片。报道援引知情人士消息称，负责监管美国出口管制的美国商务部正就改变对华出口限制一事 进行审查，并称相关计划可能会发生变动。报道称，美国商务部暂未对此作出回应，英伟达尚未就此直 接置评。（环球网） 2、中方就高市错误言行致函古特雷斯 11月21日，中国常驻联合国代表傅聪致函联合国秘书长古特雷斯，就日本首相高市早苗涉华错误言 行阐明中国政府立场。该函将作为联合国大会正式文件，向全体会员国散发。傅聪大使在致函中表示， 日本首相高市早苗在国会答辩时公然发表涉台露骨挑衅言论。这是1945年 ...

The US jobs market added 119,000 jobs in September, according to the latest monthly jobs report, which was delayed by six weeks due to the shutdown of the federal government.Amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the strength of the US economy, the much-anticipated reading was higher than the 51,000 jobs expected by analysts to be added in September.The unemployment rate, meanwhile, ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%: its highest level since 2021. And a previous estimate for jobs growth in August was downgraded – ...

Group 1 - The current AI wave is driven by the stock market, characterized by ample funding but volatile stock prices, leading to investor impatience regarding profit realization [1][5] - Concerns over excessive investment in AI have intensified, with major AI companies experiencing stock price fluctuations, particularly after a significant fund liquidated its holdings in a leading chip company [1][3] - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed a cautious stance on further interest rate cuts, with a notable statement from Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggesting that maintaining current rates may be more appropriate for the time being [1][2] Group 2 - The swap market's expectations for a December rate cut have shifted from nearly certain to a 50-50 probability, indicating increased uncertainty regarding future financing costs [2] - There is a growing skepticism among investors and analysts regarding the astronomical levels of infrastructure investment in the AI sector, with estimates suggesting a total investment of $5 trillion in AI and related industries by 2030 [3][4] - The rapid iteration of AI chip investments poses challenges for tech companies, as the depreciation period of 8-10 years may not align with the fast-paced technological advancements, potentially affecting future profitability [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in copper prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and weak fundamentals, leading to a downward trend in prices [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The ISM data for October indicates a continued cooling of inflation in the U.S. [1] - Unexpected rebound in ADP employment figures has created a divergence in economic data, increasing internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [1] - The uncertainty surrounding future interest rate paths remains significant [1] Group 2: Fundamental Factors - Previous high prices have led to an accumulation of inventory in the market, resulting in a relatively abundant supply of copper [1] - Slow recovery in consumption is evident, with demand being significantly suppressed by high prices [1] - The limited macroeconomic stimulus on prices suggests that the fundamental recovery for copper remains unsatisfactory, indicating a potential for continued weakness in copper price levels [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook emphasizes the importance of timely action and the use of the latest real-time data for the interest rate decision in December [1] Group 1 - The statement highlights the critical nature of real-time data in making informed decisions regarding interest rates [1]

今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3962.33美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新报 3998.88美元/盎司，跌幅0.05%，最高上探至4003.11美元/盎司，最低触及3962.33美元/盎司。目前来 看，现货黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 所幸的是，下周将有大量美国私营部门数据公布。其中，以往常被忽视的JOLTS职位空缺和Challenger 裁员数据此次将受到应有的重视。不过，市场的目光无疑会聚焦于两份ISM调查以及ADP就业报告上。 若下周公布的一系列数据表现疲软，将重新点燃市场对12月降息的预期。这些数据将比以往更受密切关 注，以便从中探寻劳动力市场的健康状况以及通胀压力的迹象。 市场预期10月ISM制造业指数有望重返50荣枯线之上，这可能是自2025年2月以来的首次扩张。五大地 区联储调查中已有四份显示制造业有所改善。服务业方面，预计ISM指数将小幅扩张至50.4，但由于政 府停摆的影响，该指数跌入收缩区间的风险显著增加。 摘要今日周一（11月3日）亚盘时段，现货黄金目前交投于3962.33美元附近，截至发稿，现货黄金最新 报3998.88美元/盎司，跌幅0.05%，最高上探至4003.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's accelerated process of selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair, aiming to finalize the choice by the end of the year, which could allow the White House to influence monetary policy ahead of the new chair's official term starting in May [3][4]. Candidate Selection - Trump is currently choosing from five final candidates to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. The candidates include current Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder [3][5]. - Hassett and Warsh are viewed as frontrunners due to their close relationships with Trump, which is seen as a key factor in winning the nomination [5][6]. Implications of Early Appointment - The potential new chair is likely to fill the seat currently held by Stephen Miran, whose term ends in January. This allows the new chair to participate in the March and April rate-setting meetings before officially taking office [4][7]. - Early appointment could enable the new chair to influence investor expectations regarding interest rate paths, but it may also create awkward situations for the successor, who might have to publicly challenge decisions made by their future colleagues [8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has confirmed a shortlist of five candidates to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with the selection process being closely monitored by investors and Fed observers as Powell's term ends in May 2024 [1] Candidate Summaries - **Kevin Hassett**: Currently the Director of the White House National Economic Council and a close ally of Trump, Hassett has criticized Powell for not lowering interest rates sufficiently and has echoed concerns about the Fed's independence [2] - **Chris Waller**: A Federal Reserve Governor since 2020, Waller is known for advocating central bank independence and has recently called for interest rate cuts, warning of a weakening labor market [3] - **Michelle Bowman**: Serving as the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Fed, Bowman has pushed for easing capital rules for large banks and was among the first to support interest rate cuts this year [4] - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed Governor, Warsh has publicly criticized the Fed's operations and called for systemic reforms, advocating for a significant reduction in the Fed's balance sheet to create room for rate cuts [5][6] - **Rick Rieder**: A senior executive at BlackRock, Rieder has suggested that the Fed should implement larger rate cuts and emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence while advocating for more innovative approaches [7]

Core Insights - Federal Reserve officials are divided on how concerned they should be about the U.S. labor market as they prepare for an upcoming meeting on interest rates [1] Group 1 - The division among Federal Reserve officials indicates differing perspectives on the strength and stability of the labor market [1] - The upcoming meeting in 10 days will focus on interest rate decisions, which are influenced by labor market conditions [1]