Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights a strong upward trend in the prices of key chemical products, particularly epoxy propane and caprolactam, driven by tight supply conditions and rising costs [5][22][25] - The chemical industry index has underperformed the CSI 300 index by 3.7% this week, indicating a challenging market environment [17] - The report identifies several recommended stocks within the chemical sector, including leading companies in various sub-sectors [7][23][27][47] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - Epoxy propane prices reached a new high for the year, with an average market price of 8411 RMB/ton, up 4.99% from the previous week [5][22] - Caprolactam prices increased by 300 RMB/ton to approximately 8625 RMB/ton, reflecting a 3.60% rise due to upstream benzene price increases and production cuts [5][25] Key Product Tracking - The polyester filament market has shown a continued upward trend, with prices for POY, FDY, and DTY increasing slightly [30] - Chloride potassium prices have also risen, with an average market price of 3259 RMB/ton, up 0.52% from the previous week, driven by tight supply and strong demand expectations [5][42][47] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical among others in the chemical sector [7][23][27] - Beneficiary stocks identified include Yunnan Tin Company, Xinjiang Tianye, and others across various chemical sub-sectors [7][47]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 246.08 billion yuan from January to August, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5% [1] - The overall industrial profit for large-scale enterprises in the country was 469.297 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.9% [1] - The prices of key products such as hydrogen peroxide and hydrofluoric acid have risen significantly, indicating a potential upward trend in certain segments of the industry [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Key News Tracking - The profit total for the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry was 246.08 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year [1] - The petroleum and natural gas extraction industry saw a profit total of 236.47 billion yuan, down 12.4% year-on-year [1] Product Price Tracking - WTI oil price decreased by 3.3% to 58.9 USD/barrel [2] - Key chemical products such as pure MDI, acetic acid, organic silicon, titanium dioxide, and DMF saw price increases of 1.1%, 1.1%, 0.9%, 0.8%, and 0.6% respectively [2] - The top five chemical products with the highest price increases included electronic-grade hydrofluoric acid (+10.7%) and sulfur (solid) (+7.3%) [2] Chemical Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector rose by 1.06%, slightly underperforming the CSI 300 index which increased by 1.07% [4][15] - The sub-industries with significant weekly gains included phosphate fertilizers and phosphorus chemicals (+6.36%) and spandex (+5.81%) [16] Focused Sub-industry Insights - Demand stability and global supply dominance are key factors in the industry, with recommendations for companies like Jinhe Industrial and Yangnong Chemical [5] - Domestic demand is expected to counteract tariff impacts, with a focus on refrigerants and fertilizers [5] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in sectors with supply replacement gaps, such as OLED materials and synthetic biology [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Views - The fire at Covestro's German plant has led to a rapid increase in TDI prices, which may also drive up MDI prices [1] - Covestro's TDI production capacity of 300,000 tons/year is significantly impacted, affecting 30% of TDI capacity in Europe [4] - Domestic TDI prices have risen to 14,913 RMB/ton, a 6.04% increase, with expectations for further price hikes in Q3 [4] - The report anticipates that TDI price increases will lead to a rise in MDI prices, which are currently at 15,200 RMB/ton, up 1.33% [4] Industry Trends - Covestro's supply disruptions and domestic maintenance activities are tightening TDI supply, leading to increased prices [4] - The report notes that overseas TDI capacity is shrinking, with significant closures in Germany and Japan, which may benefit Chinese exporters [4] - China's TDI exports reached 51,600 tons in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 98.45%, indicating strong demand in Southeast Asia [4] - The report highlights key companies in the industry, including Wanhua Chemical, Cangzhou Dahua, and Hualu Hengsheng, with respective TDI capacities of 1,110,000 tons/year, 160,000 tons/year, and 300,000 tons/year planned for 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Neutral (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The approval of D-Alulose as a new food ingredient is a significant development, indicating potential growth in the food additive sector [1] - TDI and DMF prices have shown upward trends, with TDI prices increasing by 6.7% and DMF by 5.1% in the recent week, reflecting supply-demand dynamics in the chemical market [2][3] - The basic chemical sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a weekly increase of 0.46% compared to a 1.54% rise in the CSI 300 index, ranking 21st among all sectors [4][16] Summary by Sections Key News Tracking - On July 2, the National Health Commission announced the approval of D-Alulose and other substances as new food materials, which may enhance market opportunities in the food sector [1][13] Product Price Tracking - WTI oil prices rose by 1.5% to $66.5 per barrel, while key chemical products like TDI and DMF saw price increases of 6.7% and 5.1%, respectively [2] - The top five chemical products with price increases included carbon dioxide (+25.6%) and TDI (+6.7%) [2][30] Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector's performance was weaker than the CSI 300 index, with a 0.46% increase compared to the index's 1.54% rise, indicating a need for strategic focus on sectors with better growth potential [4][16] Focused Sub-industry Insights - The report suggests focusing on industries with stable demand and supply dynamics, such as refrigerants and phosphates, while also highlighting opportunities in MDI and agricultural chemicals [5] - Companies recommended for investment include Juhua Co., Yuntianhua, and Wanhua Chemical, reflecting a strategic approach to capitalize on market trends [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Crude oil dropped significantly, causing the chemical industry to follow. Despite the expectation of reduced polyester downstream load, it remained at 91.3%, and the actual polyester output reached a new high. Recent promotions helped with inventory reduction. PTA will reduce inventory in the coming period, and the action of major factories to increase basis sales has had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supplies tight. Polyester has recently reduced inventory rapidly, and inventory has increased significantly. Affected by the rise in crude oil, market purchasing willingness has increased. The maintenance of a northeast PX factory and a Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Indicators Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 5030 to 4980, a change of -50 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4334 to 4328, a change of -6 [2] Closing Price Changes - PTA closing price increased from 4798 to 4800, a change of 2 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 4267 to 4273, a change of 6 [2] Short - fiber - related Indicators - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6805 to 6820, a change of 15 [2] - Short - fiber basis increased from 79 to 156, a change of 77 [2] - 7 - 9 spread increased from 216 to 218, a change of 2 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price decreased from 5850 to 5820, a change of -30 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 955 to 1000, a change of 45 [2] Bottle - chip - related Indicators - East China water bottle chip price increased from 6016 to 6040, a change of 24 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6016 to 6040, a change of 24 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6116 to 6140, a change of 24 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 795 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee increased from 263 to 332, a change of 68.76 [2] Other Product Indicators - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10620 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3815 to 3800, a change of -15 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 14935 to 14945, a change of 10 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1143 to 1129, a change of -13.72 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price decreased from 7330 to 7300, a change of -30 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 377 to 392, a change of 14.76 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price decreased from 7575 to 7565, a change of -10 [2] Load and Production and Sales Indicators - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30%, a change of 0.02 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 40.00% to 47.00%, a change of 7.00% [3] - Polyester yarn starting rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 67.00% [3] - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 50.40% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran and the conflict between Israel and other regions have escalated, leading to expectations of continued oil price increases, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow. [2] - The downstream load of polyester remains at 91.3% despite the expected reduction, and the actual production of polyester has reached a new high. Recent promotions have helped with inventory reduction. [2] - PTA will reduce inventory in the coming period. The action of major factories to increase the basis for sales has had a significant impact on the market, and PTA spot is becoming tight. [2] - The ethylene price increase has strengthened the cost - side, and the export of Iranian petrochemicals is expected to be affected. However, the overall import volume of ethylene glycol from Iran is limited. [2] - Ethylene glycol continues to reduce inventory, with a decrease in arrivals. The reduction in polyester production has a certain impact on the market, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol has changed little. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 570.9 yuan/barrel on June 19, 2025, to 566.6 yuan/barrel on June 20, 2025, a decrease of 4.30 yuan/barrel. [2] - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread increased from 839.2 yuan/ton to 860.5 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2023 to 1.2090. PTA主力期价 decreased from 4988 yuan/ton to 4978 yuan/ton, while the spot price increased from 5190 yuan/ton to 5275 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee increased from 324.7 yuan/ton to 390.3 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased slightly from 270 to 269. PTA仓单数量 decreased from 37468 to 36804. [2] - **PX**: CFR China PX price dropped from 904 to 896, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 271 to 250. [2] - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4539 yuan/ton to 4501 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha spread increased slightly from (135.53) to (134.72). MEG内盘 price increased from 4585 to 4594, and the basis increased from 82 to 86. [2] - **Industrial Chain开工率**: PX开工率 remained at 82.70%, PTA开工率 remained at 78.56%, MEG开工率 increased slightly from 57.88% to 57.91%, and polyester负荷 increased from 89.98% to 90.16%. [2] - **Polyester Products**: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, DTY150D/48F, 1.4D直纺涤短, and semi - light切片 all increased. The cash flows of POY, FDY, DTY, and切片 all decreased, while the cash flow of涤短 increased. The long - filament sales rate increased from 31% to 33%, the short - fiber sales rate decreased from 61% to 53%, and the切片 sales rate decreased from 42% to 39%. [2] 2. Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days. [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Iran and Israel has further escalated, with Israel attacking Iran's oil field facilities and Iran responding. It is expected that oil prices will continue to rise, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow [2]. - Despite the expectation of reduced production, the downstream load of polyester has remained at 91.3%, and the actual polyester production has reached a new high. Recent promotions have helped reduce inventory [2]. - PTA will reduce inventory in the coming period. The move by mainstream factories to increase the basis for sales has had a significant impact on the market, and PTA spot is becoming tight. Affected by the rising oil prices, market purchasing willingness has increased [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price remained unchanged at 5190 yuan/ton from June 18 to June 19 [2]. - MEG inner - market price increased from 4529 yuan/ton to 4585 yuan/ton, a change of 56 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA closing price rose from 4914 yuan/ton to 4988 yuan/ton, an increase of 74 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG closing price increased from 4471 yuan/ton to 4539 yuan/ton, a rise of 68 yuan/ton [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6835 yuan/ton to 6890 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [2]. - Short - fiber basis decreased from 54 to 25, a reduction of 29 [2]. - 7 - 9 spread increased from 120 to 172, a rise of 52 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5850 yuan/ton [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 985 to 1040, up 55 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price increased from 6132 yuan/ton to 6214 yuan/ton, a rise of 82 yuan/ton [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6132 yuan/ton to 6214 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6232 yuan/ton to 6314 yuan/ton, a rise of 82 yuan/ton [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 815 yuan/ton [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 177 to 241, an increase of 63.24 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10650 yuan/ton [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3815 to 3760, a reduction of 55 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 yuan/ton [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14730 yuan/ton to 14690 yuan/ton, a reduction of 40 yuan/ton [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1200 to 1179, a reduction of 21.34 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7280 yuan/ton [2]. - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 125 to 107, a reduction of 18.76 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7585 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Market Conditions - **Short - fiber Market**: Polyester staple fiber prices of production enterprises were strong, and traders' prices increased. Downstream buyers were cautious about chasing high prices, and on - site transactions were average. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6680 - 6950 yuan/ton (cash on the spot, tax - included, self - pick - up), 6800 - 7070 yuan/ton in the North China market (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered), and 6780 - 6950 yuan/ton in the Fujian market (cash on the spot, tax - included, delivered) [2]. - **Bottle Chip Market**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6200 - 6330 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Polyester raw materials and bottle chip futures were trending upwards. The supply side raised their quotes, but downstream demand was cautious, and the market trading atmosphere was light [2]. 3. Production and Sales and Operating Rates - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30% [3]. - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 57.00% to 54.00%, a reduction of 3.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn operating rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 67.00% [3]. - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 50.40% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Iran and Israel has further escalated. Israel attacked Iran's oil field facilities, and Iran responded. It is expected that crude oil prices will continue to rise, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow. Despite the expected reduction in polyester downstream load, it remains at 91.3%, and the actual polyester production has reached a new high. Recent promotions have helped with inventory reduction. PTA will reduce inventory in the future, and the move of mainstream factories to increase basis sales has had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supply tight. Affected by the rising crude oil prices, market purchasing willingness has increased. The maintenance of a PX plant in Northeast China and a reforming unit in Zhejiang has been postponed [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators Price and Change - PTA spot price increased from 5005 to 5020, with a change of 15 [2] - MEG inner - market price increased from 4426 to 4446, with a change of 20 [2] - PTA closing price increased from 4766 to 4782, with a change of 16 [2] - MEG closing price increased from 4374 to 4400, with a change of 26 [2] - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6690 to 6710, with a change of 20 [2] - Short - fiber basis increased from 79 to 83, with a change of 4 [2] - 7 - 9 spread remained unchanged at 152 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, with a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5850 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 840 to 860, with a change of 20 [2] - East China water - bottle chip price decreased from 6075 to 6059, with a change of - 16 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6075 to 6059, with a change of - 16 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6175 to 6159, with a change of - 16 [2] - Outer - market water - bottle chip price remained unchanged at 800 [2] - Bottle - chip spot processing fee decreased from 313 to 277, with a change of - 35.53 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10600 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 3910 to 3890, with a change of - 20 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16500 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14695 to 14690, with a change of - 5 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1510 to 1498, with a change of - 11.37 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7150 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 188 to 168, with a change of - 19.53 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7355 [2] Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30%, with a change of 0.02 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from - 106.00% to 56.00%, with a change of 162.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 67.00% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 50.40% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran, it is expected that crude oil prices will continue to rise, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow. The polyester downstream load remains at 91.3% despite the expectation of a reduction, and the actual polyester output has reached a new high. PTA will go through a destocking process, and the spot is becoming tight. For ethylene glycol, although the overall import volume from Iran is limited, it will continue to destock, and the arrival volume will decrease [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil rose from 529.9 yuan/barrel on June 13, 2025, to 541.6 yuan/barrel on June 16, an increase of 11.7 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 931.2 yuan/ton to 830.1 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.2418 to 1.2109. The PTA main contract futures price fell from 4782 yuan/ton to 4766 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped slightly from 5010 yuan/ton to 5005 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 382.6 yuan/ton to 311.5 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee decreased from 154.6 yuan/ton to 72.5 yuan/ton. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1002 to 84853 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main contract futures price rose from 4334 yuan/ton to 4374 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from (135.61) yuan/ton to (131.80) yuan/ton. The MEG domestic price rose from 4400 yuan/ton to 4426 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX rose from 854 to 866, and the PX - naphtha spread increased from 234 to 246. The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 83.07% [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F prices all increased, with cash flows turning positive. The long - filament sales rate dropped from 447% to 30% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber rose from 6665 to 6690, and the cash flow increased from 7 to 28. The short - fiber sales rate dropped from 105% to 52% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The semi - bright chip price rose from 5925 to 5960, and the chip cash flow increased from (183) to (152). The chip sales rate dropped from 257% to 40% [2]. 3.2 Industry Operating Rates - The PX operating rate remained unchanged at 83.07%, the PTA operating rate decreased from 83.56% to 81.57%, the MEG operating rate increased from 54.40% to 56.16%, and the polyester load increased slightly from 89.64% to 89.74% [2]. 3.3 Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6, and a 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Minsheng Chemical's "Five Tigers": Shengquan Group, Guocera Materials, Guoguang Co., Anli Co., and Polymeric Co. [1][4] Core Insights - The chemical market is active, with growth stocks presenting a favorable allocation opportunity. The demand for phosphate fertilizers remains stable, and the high price of phosphate rock is expected to continue due to supply-demand balance. [1] - The domestic production capacity of polycarbonate (PC) is projected to grow significantly from 875,000 tons in 2018 to 3,810,000 tons by 2024, with an expected improvement in supply-demand dynamics from 2025 to 2029. [2] - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a recovery in the supply-demand balance, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.4% in production capacity from 2021 to 2024, driven by demand from emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics. [2] Summary by Sections Chemical Market Overview - The basic chemical industry index closed at 3,406.53 points, down 1.23% from the previous week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.05%. [10] - Among 462 stocks in the chemical sector, 31% rose while 67% fell during the week. [18] Key Chemical Sub-Industries - **Polyester Filament**: The market is stable with slight price increases, and the average industry operating rate is approximately 89.96%. [26][27] - **Tires**: The operating rate for all-steel tires is 60.12%, down 2.88 percentage points from the previous week. [40] - **Refrigerants**: Prices for refrigerants like R22 and R134a are stable to strong, with R22 averaging 36,000 CNY/ton and R134a at 48,000 CNY/ton. [45][47] Price Trends - The top price increases for chemical products include cotton short velvet (up 15%), trichloromethane (up 14%), and domestic naphtha (up 13%). [24] - Conversely, the largest price drops were seen in liquid chlorine (down 71%) and TMA (down 9%). [25] Company Profit Forecasts - Guoguang Co. is projected to have an EPS of 0.78 CNY in 2024, with a PE ratio of 19, while Shengquan Group is expected to have an EPS of 1.03 CNY with a PE ratio of 25. Both companies are rated as "Recommended." [4]